Pakistan after Benazir Bhutto

[Neo]

Pakistan after Benazir Bhutto​

By Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

It is important to hold an independent and credible inquiry to the satisfaction of Benazir Bhutto’s family and the PPP. However, inquiries into the deaths of important leaders in the past have remained inconclusive. Can there be a departure from the past?

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a tragedy not merely for her family and the Pakistan People’s Party but also for Pakistan. She was a formidable political leader who was known for her determination and courage in pursuing her party’s ideals. Her return to Pakistan on October 18 reinvigorated the PPP and boosted the fortunes of the party in the run-up to the general elections. Her ceaseless campaigning, coupled with Nawaz Sharif’s strident electioneering, threatened the pro-Musharraf PMLQ’s plans to sweep the polls.

The first reaction to the unfortunate incident was that of sadness, anger and anxiety about the future. The initial violence specifically targeted symbols of the government and the PMLQ. There were more violent incidents on December 28 and 29 that threatened social and political stability. There is an urgent need to take political measures to defuse the situation but President Pervez Musharraf does not have much credibility to initiate such a process.

Despite the federal government’s unilateral decision on December 28 to hold elections on the scheduled date, there are little prospects of credible elections on January 8. Nawaz Sharif announced the PMLN’s decision to pull out of the elections as ‘a mark of protest’ after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. He blamed Musharraf for letting the situation deteriorate to such an extent that fair and free elections are no longer possible. It should also be mentioned that hours before Bhutto’s assassination, there was a clash between the supporters of Sharif and the PMLQ on the outskirts of Islamabad. This resulted in four deaths and several injuries.

A number of smaller political parties as well as the lawyers and societal groups had already boycotted the polls. Now, with Nawaz Sharif going for boycott, the prospects of holding credible elections appear to have declined. With the exception of the PMLQ and the JUIF, others will monitor the situation before making a decision about the elections.

The assassination has focused attention on issues more crucial to the future of Pakistani politics than holding elections on time. The first important issue pertains to the Pakistani state’s ability to protect leading political players. After all, security is ultimately the responsibility of the government, but no government official is willing to accept any blame for the incident.

The security of Benazir Bhutto was a contentious issue from the day she returned to Pakistan. Her welcome procession in Karachi on October 18 was hit by bomb blasts. Nothing is known about the official inquiry into the incident. Subsequently, the government claimed that it was providing adequate security. The PPP leadership, especially Benazir Bhutto, periodically complained about the government’s inadequate security arrangements. She complained particularly about the defective equipment used to suspend communication around her motorcade.

What appears intriguing is that in Rawalpindi the bomb explosion was preceded by gunfire at Benazir Bhutto. Though government sources claim that she was not hit by these shots, the firing incident does not fit into the standard practice of militant Islamist groups. They have normally planted or hurled bombs, or launched suicide attacks rather than using firearms in their operations. This raises another question: was the attack engineered exclusively by some extremist Islamist group, or were others also involved? Unless the strategy of Islamist extremists has changed, the possibility of others being involved cannot be ruled out.

It is an irony of history that her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, lost his life in Rawalpindi under a different set of circumstances and his coffin was carried by an official C-130 aircraft. Benazir Bhutto was also killed in Rawalpindi and the journey to her final resting place was also on an official C-130 aircraft. It is important to hold an independent and credible inquiry to the satisfaction of her family and the PPP. However, inquiries into the deaths of important leaders in the past have remained inconclusive. Can there be a departure from the past?

Benazir Bhutto’s death is a major setback to the prospects of revival of democracy in Pakistan. Its impact will cast a dark shadow on political stability in the country because she was a credible alternative to Musharraf. Her supporters view her disappearance from the political scene under unfortunate circumstances as a planned elimination and they hold the government, including Musharraf, responsible for the incident.

Musharraf’s capacity to salvage the situation through a dialogue with the PPP and other opposition political parties is minimal because of the wide gulf of distrust between the two. Musharraf has lost all good will after the suspension of the Constitution on November 3 and removal of most judges of the superior judiciary to secure his presidency. Those who opposed these actions were treated brutally by the coercive apparatus of the state.

This makes it extremely difficult for Musharraf to embark on reconciliation. Nawaz Sharif has already asked for his resignation. This demand will gain more support because the opposition political parties do no appear to be in a mood to enter into dialogue with the Musharraf-led government. The option of setting up a national government to deal with the situation cannot materialise as long as Musharraf occupies the presidency.

Musharraf has already called in the army in parts of Sindh. However, if major political parties and societal groups join the protest and it becomes intense and widespread in a couple of weeks, the top army commanders are not expected to protect the Musharraf government at any cost. Past experience suggests that the top brass makes decisions independently and does not rescue a discredited government. Though it is early to suggest if this scenario will play out, it is clear that Pakistan has entered a new phase of political uncertainty and Musharraf will find it difficult to calm the situation.

Bhutto’s death is a major setback to liberal and moderate politics. She was categorical in her stance on extremism and terrorism. Liberal and moderate elements do not currently have a leader of her stature.

This incident underlines the growing threat of extremism to the Pakistani state and society. The Pakistani government and its intelligence agencies have to be decisive in dealing with the threat of extremism. Before the Red Mosque incident in July 2007, official circles lacked unanimity on how to deal with the extremists, who were always left some space to survive. When militants targeted security forces and intelligence agencies after the Red Mosque incident, the government adopted a more forthright approach towards militancy. Now, the government needs to review the security situation and remove ambiguities in its counter-terrorism policies.

The PPP now faces the major challenge of selecting a new chairperson to lead the party in this difficult period. The selection of a widely acceptable leader is crucial to the future of the party, which needs to continue Bhutto’s mission and take advantage of the sympathy wave for the PPP.

Hopefully Musharraf will not use this tragedy to consolidate his position by authoritarian means and hold one-sided elections to pack the national and provincial assemblies with his beneficiaries. Such an ill-advised strategy will neither secure Musharraf’s political future nor promote internal harmony and stability.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[Neo]

VIEW: Pakistan after Bhutto​

By Arif Rafiq

Ravaged by endemic elite discord since its founding, Pakistan desperately needs an elite reconciliation that includes all of the country’s major stakeholders. Otherwise, Pakistan’s terrorists, who feed off of political instability, will continue to gain

The assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has brought Pakistan’s state of turmoil to new heights. As head of the nation’s most popular political party, Bhutto largely transcended Pakistan’s ethnic and sectarian divides. Her return from exile in October was seen as a step toward curbing the country’s dangerous fragmentation; her murder shatters those hopes. President Pervez Musharraf must take immediate steps — most importantly, the formation of a national unity government — to prevent Pakistan from tearing apart at the seams.

In deciding that her People’s Party would participate in the January parliamentary election, Bhutto threw a lifeline to Musharraf, who has been beset by multiple insurgencies, a nationwide terrorist threat, and rock-bottom legitimacy. Both Musharraf and his supporters in Washington hoped that mainstream parties’ participation in the election would end Pakistan’s governance crisis and provide popular support for a decisive confrontation with the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Now, however, the election will likely be postponed. Indeed, Musharraf might be compelled to impose emergency rule again, as he did in November, should Pakistan’s stability further deteriorate. There are reports of violence in cities across Pakistan. Karachi, a multi-ethnic metropolis, could erupt into full-scale chaos. During the 1990s, violence there between Bhutto’s party and a local ethnic party — now allied with Musharraf — took thousands of lives.

In these circumstances, a state of emergency could be warranted. But, given Musharraf’s lack of legitimacy, such a move would further infuriate Bhutto’s supporters, whose street power Bhutto had contained since October. This could set the stage for a violent confrontation between the Pakistani masses and Musharraf’s regime.

The nightmare scenario envisioned by many in Pakistan — a nuclear-armed country actively targeted by Al Qaeda and the Taliban — could become a reality. But this need not be a foregone conclusion.

Musharraf, who regularly claims to act on the basis of a “Pakistan first” policy, must now let go of partisan objectives and form a national unity government led by a prime minister from the opposition. Any subsequent measures, including temporary imposition of emergency rule and full-scale war against the terrorists, require the complete support of the opposition parties. Musharraf and his political allies cannot be seen as benefiting from Bhutto’s assassination; nor can they afford the perception of a cover-up. His opponents must be incorporated into the decision-making process.

A national unity government must assume three major responsibilities. First, it must establish an independent commission to determine who was responsible for Bhutto’s murder. While political assassination is not unfamiliar — Pakistan’s first prime minister was killed in the same park where Bhutto was murdered — it is imperative that the culprits be apprehended and tried. Anything short of this would permanently taint Pakistan’s leadership and impede all attempts at political reconciliation.

Second, it must take necessary measures to ensure public safety and political stability, while paving the way for free and fair elections. It must offer Pakistan a consensual path toward winning back its tribal areas from the insurgents, end the wave of terror in its cities, and ensure the election of a new, legitimate government.

Finally, it must begin a dialogue with Musharraf and the military on a permanent, constitutional separation of powers. If Bhutto had not been assassinated and, instead, successfully became prime minister, she would likely have clashed with Musharraf over his arbitrary empowerment of the presidency at the expense of the premiership. The issue will not go away with Bhutto’s death.

Pakistan’s civil and military elite must create a broad consensus — perhaps with foreign assistance, but never with foreign meddling — on the constitutional roles of the prime minister, president, and the military. Ravaged by endemic elite discord since its founding, Pakistan desperately needs an elite reconciliation that includes all of the country’s major stakeholders. Otherwise, Pakistan’s terrorists, who feed off of political instability, will continue to gain, while the country’s poor and illiterate majority will continue to lose ground.

The murder of Benazir Bhutto need not result in the country’s demise. Pakistan’s elite have an opportunity to overcome their differences, unite in opposition to militants, and transform their failing state into a stable and prosperous democracy.

If they succeed in bringing about a national renewal, Bhutto, a monumental political figure in Pakistani history, will not have died in vain. —DT-PS

Arif Rafiq, a policy and communications consultant, edits the Pakistan Policy blog (The Pakistan Policy Blog)

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[Neo]

NEWS ANALYSIS: What happens now?​

By Najam Sethi

If President Musharraf reaches out to the PPP, and indirectly through the PPP to the PMLN, and concedes their demands for the holding of free and fair elections under a truly neutral administration, he can save the situation from blowing up in his face

Ms Benazir Bhutto’s tragic assassination has left a great void in Pakistan at a critical point in its halting and controversial evolution to democratic civilian rule. Some questions immediately arise. Who will lead the PPP now? Will the PPP participate in the elections or join Nawaz Sharif in boycotting them and agitating for the overthrow of President Musharraf? What are President Musharraf’s options now?

The question of succession in the PPP is fundamental. There are two factors that impinge on this issue. First, the politics of the PPP is dynastic and tribal in nature. Hence, the new leader of the PPP is likely to be a Bhutto. Only Bilawal qualifies for that role, regardless of whether or not he is ready to don the mantle of his illustrious mother. This means that Bilawal will be the nominal or formal head of the party. Asif Zardari will play the role of the Regent or real power behind the throne while Amin Fahim will be the face of the party in government. Whatever the sanitised elites may say or feel about this succession principle, lay Pakistanis will recognise its legitimacy and give it their approval.

The PPP’s leadership also knows that if it were to contest the elections sooner than later it would sweep to power. Alternatively, if it were to join hands with Nawaz Sharif and start agitation, it could exploit the anger in the street against the Musharraf regime and compel regime change. The situation is so volatile now - and the PMLQ has all but disappeared from the reckoning - that the Musharraf regime should not put this challenge to the test.

This means that now the PPP must be allowed to set the agenda for transition rather than the Musharraf regime, as was the case before Ms Bhutto’s death. If the PPP wants to contest the elections under the current dispensation at a date of its choosing, the government should not take issue with it. More critically, if the PPP demands a national reconciliation government headed by a prime minister who has the approval of the PPP and the PMLN to hold the elections, the government must concede the demand. That may perhaps be the only way for the PPP to persuade the PMLN to stay on its side and get a free and fair election as well as satisfy the demands of the lawyers’ community and civil society.

President Musharraf’s options are quite limited. If he tries to weather the storm by insisting on having his way by dint of state might, he risks the combined resistance of all parties and pressure groups. Without the PPP and PMLN, even the JUI will not contest the elections. In the event, no one will come out to vote for the PMLQ and a farce greater then the referendum will be perpetrated on the people of Pakistan. That will deepen the crisis, provoking international isolation and alienation rapidly. Even a non-violent, non-cooperation movement across the country will bring Islamabad to its knees sooner than later.

However, if President Musharraf reaches out to the PPP, and indirectly through the PPP to the PMLN, and concedes their demands for the holding of free and fair elections under a truly neutral administration, he can save the situation from blowing up in his face.

In the current situation, the PPP is in no mood to give any quarter to President Musharraf. That is why it is focussing on holding him squarely responsible for Ms Bhutto’s death by denying her the security she needed, even if it is not accusing him of pulling the trigger. Unfortunately, the government hasn’t helped its cause by fumbling on its version of what happened on that fateful day. Hence, it would be foolish to provoke the PPP into an embrace of the PMLN that seeks nothing less than the ouster of President Musharraf.

The government should also realise that the JUI of Maulana Fazlur Rehman will not be able to withstand the pressure from its voting hinterland, the NWFP and Balochistan, where it is being chided and rebuked by its rank and file to adopt a more hostile posture and boycott the elections. The other party that is also coming under pressure is the ANP, which is also vying for the Pushtun vote like the JUI. While Ms Bhutto was around, all these parties and leaders were following her lead. Now they will follow Mr Zardari’s lead because he has all the cards in his hand.

Mr Zardari has said that the PPP is conscious of following up on Ms Bhutto’s decision to contest the elections. But he must be acutely aware also of her apprehensions regarding a rigged election under the current dispensation. It is therefore likely that he will not settle for anything less than concrete guarantees of a free and fair election.

The caretaker prime minister, Mr Muhammadmian Soomro, has indicated that he might invite all the parties to a meeting to decide what should be done about the elections. If such a meeting is held, and it has become imperative now, there are bound to be two views: one “hard line”, led by the APDM; and the other “realistic”, led by the JUI, the ANP and the PPP. This would be an occasion for the “realistic” group to get the government to agree to set up a national reconciliation or consensus government to hold the elections. Otherwise, the hard line group demanding the ouster of President Musharraf may be successful.

One thing is agreed by all who look at the Pakistani scene today. Free and fair elections should be held so that the transition of power can take place without upheaval. No one should want a meaningless upheaval in Pakistan because we are already threatened by loss of internal sovereignty that may tilt the region into conflict. More democracy is the right medicine for a divided polity. It will help create a political consensus, so far lacking, against elements that have robbed it of sovereignty and have occupied its territory. That is what Ms Bhutto gave her life for and that is what Pakistan desperately needs more than ever before.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[HAIDER]

Its somthing
Media without GEO---------peace everywhere
Politics without BIBI---------peace everwhere....or One White collar thief less in clan.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Paksitan with or without Bhutto will still continue and so there is nothing that alarms.

One wonders if investigations will be conducted with vigour or whether anything will be revealed. It is so evident by the contradiction and confusion that has already prevailed over what caused the death and surprisingly, the confusion has been started by the official spokesman, Brig Cheema.

Indeed, the use of pistol is not the known way the AQ assassinates its targeted victim. It adds to the mystery!

However, to believe that without Bhutto there is peace, is an incorrect assessment since there is riot, carnage and destruction of property. Hardly peace! Musharraf is going hard now against these elements, but then it will only harden the opposition and they will continue with their ways, whenever the opportunity arises.

That is the unfortunate commentary when force is used and without force, nothing can be controlled. Catch 22.

 

[HAIDER]

Sir Saleem are you looking this incident through the historic murder of kennedy?...where Lee Harvey is still innocent in center stage but killer was someone else ?

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Sir Saleem are you looking this incident through the historic murder of kennedy?...where Lee Harvey is still innocent in center stage but killer was someone else ?

That and the fact that Zia's death remains shrouded by mystery. There, too, no post mortem was done! The US Ambassador who perished with Zia, was a Jew! And some 'international' commentators claimed that because of that, the US Ambassador was a dispensable property!