muhammad ali ehsan
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Has there been a policy error? Have we given up on our Afghan policy (after it failed to delivered what we planned to achieve?) The address by PM Gillani at the 6th Convocation Ceremony of National Defence University(NDU) is important not only for its contents but for the choice of the venue where it is delivered. Most beneficiaries of the NDU will be handling high profile appointments at least to regulate and run the military strategy drawn from the 'Renewed Afghan Policy'. At the core of the renewed Afghan Policy are three important factors spelled out by PM in his speech, they are "solution to Afghanistan will come from within Afghanistan, Kabul is the most important capital for us in the world and a peaceful, stable and sovereign Afghanistan is an absolute necessity for Pakistan".
What have been our Afghan policy goals in the past? We always sought a quiet and peaceful Afghan frontier ;not a 1500 miles long border that drew in more troops, resources, effort and attention. Did we have a friendly border that allowed us to concentrate all our resources and efforts against the border with India? or did we have a border that ate on 'our strategic reserves' of eastern front. The core element of our Afghan policy had been to avoid 'war on two fronts' or 'encirclement by the Indians'. Did we achieve this? And most importantly are we likely to achieve this in future?
Across the border on Afghan side the world led by Americans is planning an orderly retreat and a respectable exit. The Afghanistan that they will leave behind will have 2,50000 trained Afghan Army, 20000 US troops(battle enablers) and 2000 NATO trainers. Besides this US will provide Afghan Army close air support, logistical backup and air surveillance. The world will not abandon Afghanistan and will provide annually $ 3.6 billion for supporting ANSF(Afghan National security Force). Afghanistan may not have an active/operational air force but it surely will have trained army mandated and trained to guard and defend its frontiers.
Our military is today split trying to match threats that exist on both fronts. On Afghan border the threat is not only from within but also from without. Will this threat diminish after the Americans leave in 2014? Most likely not; Will the world witness November 1995 like Talibans self-styled blitzkrieg when hundreds of Toyota Helix with Talibans mounted on top advanced like German Panzer Division towards Kabul. Not now, not after US predators, drones are regularly patrolling AfPak skies. Cyber warfare together with satellite and drones has technically altered the balance in favor of those who rule the skies. US is spending more money training the drone controllers then training conventional aircraft pilots. This is bad news for Talibans. But the good news for Taliban sympathizers (and it is hoped that government of Pakistan is not amongst them) is that madrassas, popularly known as 'mullah factories' in West will continue to churn out Talibans in hundreds so there never will be dearth of paradise seekers drawing attention of American drones.
Pakistan will have to help Afghanistan achieve peace and stability and for that Pakistan army should be looking at further and increased military engagement/involvement on the western frontier.So is there going to be a Talibans likely resurgence after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan? Not now, not after Pakistan draws away from its policy of supporting Taliban's in perusing a fraught Afghan policy built around gaining strategic depth that has taken us nowhere.
The future of Talibans and their likely resurgence looks bleak. ANA(Afghan National Army) while confronting the Talibans may fall apart like a pack of cards when confronting Talibans in isolated battles but to defeat ANA the Talibans will have to lay a siege of Kabul and to do that they will have to get there first. I see no Toyota Blitzkrieg like 90s taking effect this time around. Neither this time the volunteers in thousands from Darul-Aloom Haqania (Madrassa near Peshawer and the Havard of Taliban movement) be able to move to the battle fronts unnoticed.
PM Gillani has done well to spell out the core foundations of Pakistan's Afghan policy. Will his government and the subsequent governments that follow be able to execute this policy through its most important instruments/tools i.e army and the intelligence agencies? Only time will tell.
Muhammad Ali Ehsan
What have been our Afghan policy goals in the past? We always sought a quiet and peaceful Afghan frontier ;not a 1500 miles long border that drew in more troops, resources, effort and attention. Did we have a friendly border that allowed us to concentrate all our resources and efforts against the border with India? or did we have a border that ate on 'our strategic reserves' of eastern front. The core element of our Afghan policy had been to avoid 'war on two fronts' or 'encirclement by the Indians'. Did we achieve this? And most importantly are we likely to achieve this in future?
Across the border on Afghan side the world led by Americans is planning an orderly retreat and a respectable exit. The Afghanistan that they will leave behind will have 2,50000 trained Afghan Army, 20000 US troops(battle enablers) and 2000 NATO trainers. Besides this US will provide Afghan Army close air support, logistical backup and air surveillance. The world will not abandon Afghanistan and will provide annually $ 3.6 billion for supporting ANSF(Afghan National security Force). Afghanistan may not have an active/operational air force but it surely will have trained army mandated and trained to guard and defend its frontiers.
Our military is today split trying to match threats that exist on both fronts. On Afghan border the threat is not only from within but also from without. Will this threat diminish after the Americans leave in 2014? Most likely not; Will the world witness November 1995 like Talibans self-styled blitzkrieg when hundreds of Toyota Helix with Talibans mounted on top advanced like German Panzer Division towards Kabul. Not now, not after US predators, drones are regularly patrolling AfPak skies. Cyber warfare together with satellite and drones has technically altered the balance in favor of those who rule the skies. US is spending more money training the drone controllers then training conventional aircraft pilots. This is bad news for Talibans. But the good news for Taliban sympathizers (and it is hoped that government of Pakistan is not amongst them) is that madrassas, popularly known as 'mullah factories' in West will continue to churn out Talibans in hundreds so there never will be dearth of paradise seekers drawing attention of American drones.
Pakistan will have to help Afghanistan achieve peace and stability and for that Pakistan army should be looking at further and increased military engagement/involvement on the western frontier.So is there going to be a Talibans likely resurgence after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan? Not now, not after Pakistan draws away from its policy of supporting Taliban's in perusing a fraught Afghan policy built around gaining strategic depth that has taken us nowhere.
The future of Talibans and their likely resurgence looks bleak. ANA(Afghan National Army) while confronting the Talibans may fall apart like a pack of cards when confronting Talibans in isolated battles but to defeat ANA the Talibans will have to lay a siege of Kabul and to do that they will have to get there first. I see no Toyota Blitzkrieg like 90s taking effect this time around. Neither this time the volunteers in thousands from Darul-Aloom Haqania (Madrassa near Peshawer and the Havard of Taliban movement) be able to move to the battle fronts unnoticed.
PM Gillani has done well to spell out the core foundations of Pakistan's Afghan policy. Will his government and the subsequent governments that follow be able to execute this policy through its most important instruments/tools i.e army and the intelligence agencies? Only time will tell.
Muhammad Ali Ehsan
