OECD latest economy growth and inflation projection 2022/2023

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OECD Outlook Projects 2023 Recession for Many Economies Around the World

The outlook provides a snapshot of the synchronized shock stemming from Russia's attack on Ukraine and the ensuing energy crunch that has inflicted a widespread cost-of-living crisis.

www.treasuryandrisk.com

 

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November update (Inflation)

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japan Posts English

japan.postsen.com

November update (economic growth)

UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

The OECD says the UK will contract more next year than any other of the world's wealthiest nations.

www.bbc.com

 

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I still predict Indonesia can grow at 5.2 - 5.5 % in 2023. Minimum salary will be raised 10 % next year as government has already stated, this will boost spending of households. I predict Indonesia investment and export will likely keep growing in 2023 at relatively the same growth like this year.

Lower energy prices in Indonesia will make our industry more competitive thus export like steel will likely keep growing amid global economic slow down. This also will likely make more FDI to come beside the fact that Indonesia is not having energy crisis at all even we have surplus of electricity until 2027. Better infrastructure will also likely help the growth of our investment next year.

Commodity prices will likely keep at higher price due to possible relaxation of China zero covid policy and India economy that I predict will keep growing at 4.5-5.5 % next year.

 

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Maersk Asia Pacific market update (December 2022)​

26 December 2022

Keep your cargo sailing smoothly, with valuable insights from our Asia-Pacific Market Update for December.​

As 2023 approaches, the outlook is more pessimistic than optimistic as the possibility of a global recession weighs on sentiment. Falling trade growth, tighter monetary controls and weakening consumer demand all point to a tougher start to the New Year for the container shipping sector. But there are some bright spots too – port congestion especially in Europe and North America has been eased, largely ending the supply chain bottlenecks and disruption of the last couple of years.

China has also lifted virtually all its COVID-19 restrictions after abandoning its zero-COVID-19 policies of the last three years, raising the prospect of a trade resurgence, despite of a foreseeable impact of soaring positive cases.

Market Trends​

Global growth continued to stall in November with key indicators all sliding. The Global Composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) nudged lower to 48 in November against 49 the previous month while the manufacturing orders-to-inventory ratio also slipped from October’s level suggesting the growth momentum deteriorated further. Manufacturing export order were again flat.

Inflationary pressures are still causing concern despite the possibility headline inflation in the US and Europe has peaked due to lower energy prices. Central banks, including the US Fed, continue to raise interest rates to rein in inflation although there are worries such action could plunge leading economies further into recession.

Trade Outlook​

Cargo demand remains weak and this is expected to continue into 2023 due to a combination of high inventory levels and the likelihood of a global recession that could already be underway. Latest figures show container volumes continued to fall in most regions in July-September compared with the same period last year but were particularly weak on European and Asia trades. North American imports and West Central Asia exports were also witnessing certain level of decreasing.

Global container volumes fell 4.3% in July-September compared with a year earlier. The biggest fall was in intra-Europe volumes which crashed 12.5% in July-September from the previous year, followed by North American imports which dropped 9.3% and Asia imports which slumped 7.6%. But Oceania – Australia and New Zealand – was one of the few bright spots with export volumes growing 5.3% and imports rising 4.9% in July-September from a year ago.

Port delays in Europe and North America are also easing with Clarksons port congestion index for northern Europe and the US West Coast both seeing an improvement in congestion levels. Ocean spot freight rates are also falling and are now below those seen in the second half 2020 and are moving closer to pre-pandemic rates.

Maersk Asia Pacific market update (December 2022)

Keep your cargo sailing smoothly, with valuable insights from our Asia-Pacific Market Update for December.

www.maersk.com

 

[Indos]

Grim IMF Forecast And Negative Chinese Data Weighs On Oil Prices​

By Irina Slav - Jan 03, 2023, 2:30 AM CST

The latest climb in oil prices was briefly interrupted early on Tuesday morning as bearish sentiment continues to build. A forecast by the International Monetary Fund that a third of the world’s economies are about to slide into a recession this year was particularly worrying. At the same time, Chinese manufacturing data suggests a wave of Covid infections is hurting oil demand in the country.

Speaking on “Face the Nation” at CBS, IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva said that the outlook for the global economy is quite grim and that 2023 will be tougher than 2022 because all the large growth engines will be depressed, including the United States, Europe, and even China—for the first time in four decades.

"For the first time in 40 years, China's growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth," Georgieva said, as quoted by Reuters. "For the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative, the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be negative," she also said.


The somewhat good news she had to deliver was that the U.S. economy may avoid an outright contraction thanks to its resilience, even though recent research from the Fed suggested a recession may well be imminent.

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday morning after rising for several consecutive sessions. The latest updates about the Covid situation in China also contributed to the slide although it remained quite moderate at less than 0.30 percent for Brent crude in morning Asian trade today.

At the time of writing, both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were on the rise again, also moderately. Both benchmarks have returned to over $80 per barrel in the past couple of weeks, after sliding considerably lower in November and early December on demand worry, especially in China.

"The market cannot expect a rapid recovery of the Chinese economy after three years of (pandemic controls), the mass bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises, the soaring unemployment rate, the rapid increase in the social savings rate, and the rapid growth in the number of infections and deaths in recent months," Reuters quoted a CMC Markets analyst as saying.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Grim IMF Forecast And Negative Chinese Data Weighs On Oil Prices | OilPrice.com

The latest oil price climb was interrupted early on Tuesday morning by growing economic doubts, with the IMF forecast and Chinese data both playing a part

oilprice.com

 

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PRESS RELEASE
JANUARY 10, 2023

Sharp, Long-lasting Slowdown to Hit Developing Countries Hard​

2023 global growth to slow to 1.7% from 3% expected six months ago

WASHINGTON, Jan. 10, 2023 — Global growth is slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development—such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions—could push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.

The global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.

Over the next two years, per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%—a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average. In Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.

“The crisis facing development is intensifying as the global growth outlook deteriorates,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment as global capital is absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates. Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already-devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change.”

Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow from 2.5% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. Over the past two decades, slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession. In the United States, growth is forecast to fall to 0.5% in 2023—1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970. In 2023, euro-area growth is expected at zero percent—a downward revision of 1.9 percentage points. In China, growth is projected at 4.3% in 2023—0.9 percentage point below previous forecasts.

Excluding China, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, reflecting significantly weaker external demand compounded by high inflation, currency depreciation, tighter financing conditions, and other domestic headwinds.

By the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly 6% below levels expected before the pandemic. Although global inflation is expected to moderate, it will remain above pre-pandemic levels.

The report offers the first comprehensive assessment of the medium-term outlook for investment growth in emerging market and developing economies. Over the 2022-2024 period, gross investment in these economies is likely to grow by about 3.5% on average—less than half the rate that prevailed in the previous two decades. The report lays out a menu of options for policy makers to accelerate investment growth.

“Subdued investment is a serious concern because it is associated with weak productivity and trade and dampens overall economic prospects. Without strong and sustained investment growth, it is simply impossible to make meaningful progress in achieving broader development and climate-related goals,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “National policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances but they always start with establishing sound fiscal and monetary policy frameworks and undertaking comprehensive reforms in the investment climate.”

The report also sheds light on the dilemma of 37 small states—countries with a population of 1.5 million or less. These states suffered a sharper COVID-19 recession and a much weaker rebound than other economies, partly because of prolonged disruptions to tourism. In 2020, economic output in small states fell by more than 11%— seven times the decline in other emerging and developing economies. The report finds that small states often experience disaster-related losses that average roughly 5% of GDP per year. This creates severe obstacles to economic development.

Policymakers in small states can improve long-term growth prospects by bolstering resilience to climate change, fostering effective economic diversification, and improving government efficiency. The report calls upon the global community to assist small states by maintaining the flow of official assistance to support climate-change adaptation and help restore debt sustainability.

Download Global Economic Prospects here.

Regional Outlooks:

East Asia and Pacific: Growth is expected to increase to 4.3% in 2023 and to 4.9% in 2024. For more, see regional overview.

Europe and Central Asia: Growth is expected to slow to 0.1% in 2023 before increasing to 2.8% in 2024. For more, see regional overview.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is projected to slow to 1.3% in 2023 before recovering to 2.4% in 2024. For more, see regional overview.

Middle East and North Africa: Growth is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. For more, see regional overview.

South Asia: Growth is projected to slow to 5.5% in 2023 before picking up to 5.8% in 2024. For more, see regional overview.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth is expected to be at 3.6% in 2023 and rise to 3.9% in 2024. For more, see regional overview.

Global Economic Prospects: Sharp, Long-lasting Slowdown to Hit Developing Countries Hard

Global growth is slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank’s January 2023 Global Economic Prospects report.

www.worldbank.org

 

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World Bank 2023 GDP growth projection (January 2023)

 

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• NATURAL GAS | OIL
• 16 Jan 2023 | 04:11 UTC

Russian crude flows to India, China proving a boon for other Asian oil importers​

HIGHLIGHTS
China and India show no sign of slowing purchases from Russia

This leaves Middle Eastern supplies for South Korea, Japan, Thailand

Similar trade shifts in Asia likely to continue in 2023: S&P Global

The insatiable appetite for discounted Russian cargoes from India and China has offered enough bandwidth to Middle Eastern suppliers to cater to the needs of other Asian oil importers that have that slashed their purchases from the largest non-OPEC supplier since the invasion of Ukraine last February.

With India becoming the largest buyer of Russian crude in late 2022 and China posting close to double-digit growth in Russian inflows over January-November, refiners in South Korea, Japan and Thailand are finding it easier to procure term and spot crude supplies from Middle Eastern producers, refinery and trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights.


"The trends that we saw in Asia in 2022 are likely to continue this year, with China and India importing large volumes of crudes from Russia, while South Korea has cut back buying from the same supplier substantially and Japan not importing from that country," said Lim Jit Yang, adviser for Asia-Pacific oil markets at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

According to industry and some government officials, the big shift in focus of India and China toward Russian crude has softened the competition for Middle Eastern crude in Asia, leaving enough room for those oil producers to even cater to the needs of some European buyers.

"If India and China were also competing like crazy for Middle Eastern oil, the price of crude might have been much higher than where it is now," said an analyst with a leading global oil trading firm, echoing what some Indian government officials have said in recent months.

Surge in imports​

Russian crude's share in the Indian crude basket in 2021 was only around 2.2%, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. From that level, Russia became India's top crude supplier in November 2022, with the country receiving around 1 million b/d, and were on course to be even higher in December, estimated at 1.24 million b/d, due to competitive landed costs.

Over January-November, China's crude imports from Russia rose 10.2% year on year to 79.78 million mt, or 1.75 million b/d, customs data showed.

ESPO crude arrivals in Shandong ports for independent refineries soared 36.6% from November to a 31-month high of 2.6 million mt, or 614,774 b/d, in December, according to S&P Global data. The increase suggested Shandong refineries were confident in importing Russian barrels despite the price cap imposed Dec. 5.

Market sources said Middle Eastern sour crude procurement had been smooth due to Indian and Chinese refiners' willingness to take more Russian crude that has helped to meet the revival in demand after the lifting of pandemic restrictions. This has worked in favor of the region's overall crude supply security.

"It's actually possible to even request for incremental barrels and major suppliers like Aramco and ADNOC would approve these days as Asia's mega importers like India and China are absorbing as much Russian crudes as they want, leaving plenty of room for other key Asian buyers to take Middle Eastern term supplies," said a feedstock manager at a South Korean refiner.

South Korea's crude imports from Saudi Arabia rose on a year-on-year basis for the fifth straight month in November, gaining 15% to 29.59 million barrels, data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp. showed. Asia's third biggest crude importer received 309.15 million barrels from Saudi Arabia over January-November 2022, up 24% from the same period a year earlier.

Dubai market structure​

The Dubai market structure has been trending lower rather sharply since the third quarter of 2022 as Indian and Chinese traders shift focus to cheap and attractive Russian barrels, tilting the Middle East-Asian market's supply-demand balance in favor of buyers, according to crude and condensate traders at PTT and another Thai refiner.

"Had Indian and Chinese refiners decided to also shun Russian crude and if they were to compete fiercely with other Asian buyers for the limited Middle Eastern supply, both outright prices, as well as Persian Gulf official selling price differentials, would remain high," a feedstock trader at a Thai refiner said.

Thailand secured plentiful light and medium sour crude from the UAE in 2022, receiving 360,000 b/d from the major Middle Eastern producer over January-November, up 73.3% from the same period a year earlier, Energy Policy and Planning Office data showed.

Meanwhile, Japan saw crude shipments in the first 11 months 2022 from its top supplier UAE jump 21.3% from a year earlier at 1.03 million b/d, latest data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed.

"Basically, India and China's strong focus on Russian barrels meant less mouths to feed within the Middle Eastern supply pool, which explains Japan's boost in Abu Dhabi sour crude shipments," a feedstock management source at ENEOS said.

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1616088760076357638

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616398410294206467

 

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Oil Production by Countries per day​

Oil Production by Country 1900 - 2022 | Top 15 Countries by Crude Oil Production, Barrels per Day​

 

[Indos]

Indonesia has subsidized and non subsidized petrol prices. Only low quality petrol that is subsidized.

As of 2023, the subsidized petrol price in Indonesia is Rp 10.000 per liter (at 0.67 USD).

1 USD = 14.980 Rupiah (current rate).