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October Surprises In Chinese Aerospace


From the Richard Fisher article:

"One early result of these revelations is the possibility that the United States has underestimated a key future Chinese military capability, compounding that error by using it to help justify a momentous policy decision. In a November 8, 2009 Chinese television show, Deputy PLAAF Commander General He Weirong stated that the China’s 5th generation fighter would fly “soon” and would “equip troops” in “about eight to ten years,” or by 2017-2019.[1] Earlier this year, the Obama Administration campaigned vigorously to end production of the Lockheed-Martin F-22 5th generation air superiority fighter at 187, a decision in part justified by apparent assessments that China’s 5th generation fighter program would not emerge until well after 2025."

Everything that Mr. Fisher says is true. However, it is the things that he doesn't say that keeps a reader in the dark.

The U.S. has a 20 to 30 year lead in stealth technology experience. The point is that the Chinese stealth fighter will probably be pretty good, but not quite as good as the latest upgraded version of the F-22.

For argument's sake, let's say that the Chinese stealth fighter is just as good as the F-22, should the U.S. panic? Of course not. The U.S. has 750 to 800 overseas military bases. The purpose of the overseas military bases (or "lily pads" in military-speak) is to fight wars in other people's countries. Think of it this way: there are 64 squares on a chessboard. How would you like a game where I get 62 squares and you get 2 squares? Still think it's a fair game?

Let's say that the U.S. is in the dire position of having less stealth fighters than China in 2025 or 2030. Ready to panic? Of course not. The U.S. would simply switch to the Russian strategy. Better watch out for us barbarians with tactical nukes. If you provoke us, you never know when we might throw one at you.

I think Mr. Fisher should take a break from his "China threat" articles. "Just say no" to the consulting fees that you are receiving from the military-industrial-complex. Americans are not that stupid. The military advantages are in America's favor by design. Don't even get me started about NATO and other powerful U.S. allies, like Japan or South Korea.
 
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