October Surprise: my prediction for war

[Feng Leng]

PLA could send jets over Taiwan to defend sovereignty if US military jets fly over island

PLA could send jets over Taiwan to defend sovereignty if US military jets fly over island - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Early Saturday morning Beijing time, US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Tony Wickman, director of public affairs for US Pacific Air Forces, said the US Air Forces' original statement that an RC-135W spy plane had flown over the northern end of the island of Taiwan "was incorrect." Wickman's statement came after the island's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities had twice denied, on Wednesday and Friday, that the plane had flown over the island.

This shows that both the US and the island of Taiwan realize the seriousness of such a flight. Whether or not the spy plane actually flew over the island, it should be kept in mind that US military aircraft are not allowed to fly over Taiwan. This is the bottom line. If concrete evidence ever shows that a US military aircraft flew over the island, I believe the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would respond firmly with operations such as sending fighter jets into airspace over the island to defend our country's territorial sky. If that were to occur, the military structure in the Taiwan Straits would be reshaped - and that would be an important move toward reunification.

By seeking secession, DPP authorities must know they have been heading toward a dead end. The Chinese mainland has been conducting military operations in the Straits almost every day recently, creating unprecedentedly high pressure on DPP authorities, who are obviously extremely frightened. It would have been unthinkable for the Taiwan local authorities to twice deny a once confirmed US military operation involving the island. They really are frightened.

No matter the news is real of fake, a US military plane flying over the island of Taiwan would severely infringe on China's territorial airspace. This redline can't be budged. If the island dare disregard this redline, it will face a resolute and firm response from the Chinese mainland.

I believe the mainland has to prepare a series of plans that would punish the Taiwan authorities, including sending PLA jets on missions over the island. If US military jets can freely enter the airspace over the island of Taiwan, it can be well-reasoned that the PLA can send fighter jets to drive away US aircraft and defend national sovereignty.

I don't believe the military on the island has the nerve to fire the first shot at a PLA aircraft. Taiwan military would face dire and immediate consequences if it did so. If the DPP authorities are willing to take such a reckless gamble, they should know they will not be spared. The PLA's recent exercises and reported deployment of DF-17 hypersonic missiles on the mainland's east coast are in preparation for an escalation in the cross-Straits situation.

People on the mainland need to be patient and see our government and army destroy "Taiwan secession," force the DPP authorities to behave, and turn a new page in cross-Straits reunification. Times have changed. The Chinese mainland is extremely well prepared to oppose secession. The mainland's preparations for combat have greatly squeezed the room the DPP has to seek secession. They know they are already standing at the edge of a cliff.

 

[j20blackdragon]

It is NOT a weak argument but a valid one.

I will repeat...

Air Dominance. The ability of an air force to compel other air forces to rearray themselves and usually into subordinate postures.

Air Superiority. The ability of an air force to achieve control of contested airspace and if there are losses, those losses would not pose a statistical deterrence to that ability.

Air Supremacy. He flies, he dies.

Losses from 'Air Supremacy' by the dominant air force would come from mishaps and fratricide. The opposing air force would be a 'force' mostly in name but not in capability. In Desert Storm, when Iraqi pilots flew their jets to Iran was an example of 'Air Supremacy' by the allies over Iraqi airspace. The opposing air force can -- not just may -- still fly individually but cannot plan and coordinate counter-air operations because unit squadrons can no longer supply sufficient aircrafts of same or similar platforms to create a credible one-time attacking force. In other words, 3 fighter-bombers and 9 transports could constitute a 'squadron' by numbers but not by deliverable in terms of warfighting.

Which returns to 'Air Superiority'.

The dominant air force would still be meeting credible resistance from BOTH air and ground threats from the enemy. Control of contested airspace(s) are achievable, however, duration of control per sector remains variables. Control of one contested airspace maybe just in hours to support another combat operation, then cede control to the enemy. Control of another contested airspace may need to be in days due to long term strategic needs, and if the enemy is able to resist, the dominant air force must reallocate air resources from elsewhere to support said strategic needs, which may cede control of other contested airspaces to the enemy.

Statistics is critical in calculating what resources should be assigned to where. While numerical superiority in all air platforms are always desirable, the dominant air force may not have such resources and this is where air commanders must make calculated risks based upon statistics, established and estimates.

For example, the F-15 have a combat record of 100-1. That is an established statistics. If the F-15 is expected to meet a near-peer or even a peer platform, an ESTIMATED combat statistics maybe reduced to 5-1 or even 1-1. If that peer platform is expected to be in a contested airspace, the air commander must plan to have numerical superiority in order to achieve control of that airspace. On the other hand, if the F-15 is expected to meet resistance from inferior platforms that made up that 100-1 combat record, the air commander could rely on pilot and technical superiority to plan for 10 F-15 against 30 enemy fighters and still win the air battle, even if there are F-15 losses in the fight. Hence: ...if there are losses, those losses would not pose a statistical deterrence to that ability.

This is why the longer the time an air force spends in the 'Air Superiority' phase, the higher the odds of losing that phase.

Most of the PLAAF and the ROCAF is unknown in terms of combat capabilities. The best the global public have is that the F-16 have established combat record, no matter how old the F-16 and how new are the PLAAF's fighters maybe, that is a combat record no air commander will dismiss. Knowledge of combat record, both human and technical, are transferable, meaning that combat record can be replicated to greater than %90 accuracy. That mean ROCAF F-16 pilots have a wealth of technical knowledge and training that PLAAF pilots do not have, even if the PLAAF pilots are in newer platforms. Wars, ground, air, and naval, are repleted with incidences where human wiles triumphed despite facing technical superiority.

What this means is that the PLAAF must face two questions:

1- How long to achieve air superiority over Taiwan
2- Duration staying in that phase

Once the PLAAF achieved air superiority over Taiwan, maintenance of that phase depends on -- FUEL.

Even though Taiwan is just 100 miles away, patrol and loiter consumes fuel. External tanks allows in-mission flexibility but denies the fighter-bomber some weapons. Air refueling allows full weapons load but the fighter-bomber will have greater flight constraints to meet the air refueler and wait in queue. No loitering time to support naval operations will increase the time the PLAAF spends in trying to achieve air superiority over Taiwan. No patrol to maintain control of contested airspaces will lengthen the time the PLAAF spends in the air superiority phase. No air refueling will deny the PLAAF air superiority over Taiwan. PLAAF pilots already under combat stress and knowing they will not have fuel will quickly cede control of contested airspaces, even if they have technical superiority over ROCAF pilots flying older platforms.

The US is the world's premier air refueler. Learn.

The PRC has no need to enforce a 12 year no-fly zone over Taiwan (like what the US did to Iraq). Taiwanese runways, hangars, parking ramps, and fuel storage tanks will be destroyed by the PLARF and H-6 bomber fleet in the opening minutes/hours of the war, effectively grounding the vast majority of the ROCAF. Any ROCAF planes in the air will have no place to land. Perhaps they can defect to the mainland.

Likewise, Taiwan air defense radar sites will have been mapped out by ELINT planes and targeted by anti radiation missiles and airstrikes. What do you think these planes are for?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1314576684977397763

The Penghu islands along with these 3 airports will be easily seized by the PLA, creating unsinkable aircraft carriers off the coast of Taiwan.

Penghu Airport - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Wang-an Airport - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Qimei Airport - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The PLAN has the ability to place 2,448 VLS cells in the Taiwan Strait right now. These ships can loiter permanently off the coast of Taiwan and extend the SAM coverage range over the entirety of Taiwan airspace.

I'll do the math for you.

055 1*112 = 112
052D 15*64 = 960
052C 6*48 = 288
051C 2*48 = 96
054A 30*32 = 960
051B 1*32 = 32

2,448 VLS cells.

Helicopters will be ferrying PLA troops back and forth across the Taiwan Strait. No need to do a million man swim.

 

[rott]

If this happens, I promise you I'll buy you a coke.....in either Taipei or Srinagar, your choice.

You saved your coke money. Wait! What coke are you talking about?

 

[gambit]

The PRC has no need to enforce a 12 year no-fly zone over Taiwan (like what the US did to Iraq).

A no-fly zone have nothing to do with this. You failed to understand the point. That failure was expected.

 

[j20blackdragon]

A no-fly zone have nothing to do with this. You failed to understand the point. That failure was expected.

China vs Taiwan is going to be a one-sided turkey shoot. You failed to understand the point. That failure was expected.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Can USA stop China from invading Taiwan if it happens and when it happens?
The answer is NO.
Once China has successfully reunified Taiwan, does USA has the capability to evict Chine military from Taiwan?
The answer is again NO.
Is USA ptepared to fight a war in defence of Taiwan? The actual answer is NO.

Financially USA is broke or to be more specific - technically Bankrupt.
it is keeping afloat by printing trillions of dollars evey quarter.

That is why USA is all out to stop China from setting new standard from semiconductors to everything including MONEY. CBDC backed by gold assets is bad news to USA

That is why USA is defending its fiat currency that created out of thin air lile mad.

Without money how can USA fight a war. It cannot even maintained its fleets of warplanes and keep warships afloat today.

And Tsai has sense the clear and present danger and that is suddenly why she has started praying hard it won't happen.
Her recent speeches have been very mellowed and reconciliatory.
China President Xi message to the military to prepare for war and that famous lines has reappeared in the Chinese News media again.
"Don't say we did not warned you."
it happens before 1950 Korean War, 1962 Sino-Indo war and Sino-Viet War.
Each time it lead to real war.

Now she is trying to turn the clock and return back to status quo.

Hope it is not too late. China is quite resolute in the reunification.

She may have to stay in exile in USA permanently.

 

[Menthol]

7 MORE DAYS TILL THE END OF OCTOBER

My prediction up to 2021.

World War 3 or Malhamah or Armageddon.

 

[bshifter]

The US is not going to come to Taiwan's defense when China's war drums are sending shock waves signaling the opponents their time has come. Why do idiots still believe the US would be sending their fleet to die? US has not given Taiwan any promise. Why else they keep telling Tsai to keep buying US weapons and start to prepare for the worse cause the US would be out of sight the moment China's Navy and Airforce are charging full throttle.
Americans learned the hard lesson in 1950, saw what happened to India in 1962 therefor knew all too well not to cross a certain zone to prevent the mass Chinese army from entering the Vietnam War. During the 70th anniversary remembering the Korean War Xi did send a very clear signal to US. If the US keeps gambling on its luck and the threshold has already exceeded China will repeat the victory it achieved like the one in 1953. So far China has kept a very good track of record on fulfilling its promise that it will enter the battle.

 

[samsara]

Lol at the Ching-chong living in fools' paradise....

You must look at the state of your country vs. the state of China to utter such foolish line... who are the great fools living in the fool paradise... surely not the Chinese people!

 

[rott]

Lol at the Ching-chong living in fools' paradise....

You know, these days the pigs come in Pinkish White color. Go figure.

 

[j20blackdragon]

The rare earth ban is coming. Keep poking the bear.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China will impose sanctions on Lockheed Martin, Boeing Defense, Raytheon and other U.S. companies it says are involved in Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday.

China to impose sanctions on U.S. firms over Taiwan arms sales

China will impose sanctions on Lockheed Martin, Boeing Defense, Raytheon and other U.S. companies it says are involved in Washington's arms sales to Taiwan, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Adonis]

You know, these days the pigs come in Pinkish White color. Go figure.

You know, these days Bat-eaters' country is facilitated by naming a virus... Don't have to figure

 

[rott]

You know, these days Bat-eaters' country is facilitated by naming a virus... Don't have to figure

Hahaha... tried too hard, isn't it?

 

[Armchair]

Ok, Lets say the prediction is true...so i have a scenario for the southern front.

I request you hear me out.

lets say war on water starts in south china sea...PRC and US engages in short sharp engagement. India on back on US moves ahead and inflict defeat on PLA in Ladakh and capture swaths of lands...which actually surprises PLA. once the This situation develops it forces Pakistan Armed forces to move in..

end result will be ...any ones guess!

With Indian forces facing off north, their flanks are already exposed to Pakistan. Imagine if they extended their deployment even further. It would be a dream come true for the likes of @PanzerKiel

 

[Saho]

My prediction up to 2021.

World War 3 or Malhamah or Armageddon.

What makes you say that?

I’ve been hearing that prediction for years.