Obama’s Troops surge, Greater Game 1

[Bill Longley]

LOST IDENTITY: Obama’s Troops surge, Greater Game 1
Newton’s third law of motion is quite applicable in our social lives. Every action has reactions and every reaction is caused by an action. Every thing which goes up has to come back to original position.

Any student of history knows that historical is in fact a study of humans, their experiences of past. History repeats it’s self. World history is full of stories of great empires which reached greatest point of their greatness and then in end came back to point from where they started, replaced by more determined young nations.

USA is the only Super Power in the contemporary world who alone has global reach to hit and destroy any place on the earth. It’s the power capable of destroying world many times. US exhibited its capabilities during First gulf war, when its bombers flew from US soil .bombed Iraq and went back to their bases without touching the ground. Then again it showed its power and force during Afghan and Iraq Invasions when it’s over whelming fire power and technology surprised the whole world. No power throughout history had so much power and influence which USA has.

US Military consist of 5 main branches namely US Marine Corps, US Army, US Air Force, US Navy and US Coast Guards. As of February 28, 2009 1,454,515 people are on active duty in the military with an additional 848,000 people in the seven reserve components.


US forces are stationed in 38 countries with 820 bases around the world. US Military has 6 unified combatant commands, with their own area of responsibilities to safe guard American political, Economic and Geo Strategic Interests. These commands are

· United States European Command or EUCOM is responsible for Europe and Israel. It is head Quartered in Germany.

· US Africa Command or AFRICOM is responsible for Africa .It was established in 2007 and formally activated in October 2008.due to non permission of stationing US troops by African countries currently it is also headquartered in Germany.

. United States Central Command or CENTCOM is responsible for whole Middle East (Excluding Israel and including Egypt), South and Central Asia. It’s the largest of American Commands and is headquartered in Camp As Sayliyah in Doha, Qatar. This Command is looking after operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

. United States Pacific Command or USPACOM Command's sphere of control encompasses the Pacific Ocean from Antarctica at 092° W, north to 8° N, west to 112° W, northwest to 50° N/142° W, west to 170° E, north to 53° N, northeast to 65°30' N/169° W, north to 90° N, the Arctic Ocean west of 169° W and east of 100° E; the People's Republic of China, Mongolia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, Japan; the countries of Southeast Asia and the southern Asian landmass to the western border of India; the Indian Ocean east and south of the line from the India/Pakistan coastal border west to 068° E, south to 5° S/068° E, west to 5° S/059° E, south to 8° S/059° E, southwest to 11° S/054° E, west to 11° S/042° E, and south along 042° E to Antarctica; Madagascar, Australia, New Zealand, and Hawaii.”(Wikipedia).It is headquartered in Honolulu in Hawaii.

. United States Northern Command or USNORTHCOM is responsible for US home land and North America including Gulf of Mexico areas. It was created in 2002 to defend US home land.

. United States Southern Command or USSOUTHCOM is headquartered in Miami, Florida and is responsible for providing contingency planning, operations, and security cooperation for Central and South America, the Caribbean.


These 6 Unified commands enable US to dominate the world and protect its interests. As discussed earlier the most important unified command amongst these six commands is CENTCOM which is based in Qatar. This command is fighting war in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

Presently more than 71 thousand US troops are involve in occupation of Afghanistan along with 48 thousand NATO forces. Recently US president Barak Obama has announced to send 30 thousand more troops to reinforce the NATO and US troops who are struggling to fight and defeat growing Taliban influence. Afghanistan has become a clash point of interests of different regional and Global powers.

So far, majority of literature written on this subject looks at smaller picture of the region. For example most of European and American discuss American policy and Interests where as they forget that regional powers like Russia who challenged American interests in Georgia last year and some reports suggest that in few engagements Russian troops were engaged by US soldiers in favor of Georgians.

China which is owner of more then 45 % of US treasury bonds and is considered as a future challenger of US global hegemony ,then there is India who her self dreams of global dominance. Its ex Army Chief General Sundararajan Padmanabhan (200-2002) wrote a fiction story about Indian forces engaging US forces in book, “Writing on the Wall”. India is only Power in the region who wants American and NATO forces to remain in the region because it thinks that US presence will enable her to consolidate its position in Afghanistan which will help her to link Central Asia Via Chahbahar Port, which she has developed in Iran. And Secondly US presence and Attitude with Pashtuns and its pressure on Pakistan to act against Pashtuns in Pakistan will promote Pashtun Nationalism and its decade old dream of cutting Pakistan into peaces will materialize with Pashtun areas coming in Pashtunistan breaking from Pakistan. Indian Arms and Ammunition and TTP links to RAW proves this hypothesis. Any body can search for Pashtunistan on Internet and can find thousands of propaganda Videos and sites interpreting Army actions against Militants as actions against Pashtuns. At this moment US and Indian interests converge but what is in Indian mind any body can guess.

Pakistan has worlds largest Pashtun Population therefore it cannot afford to displease Pashtuns it also donot want to have pro Indian anti Pakistan regeme on its westren border. For these reasons majority of People in Pakistan see American presence with fear and distrust.

Then there is Iran who helped US against Taliban, but US pro Israeli stand and conceit and hostile attitude towards it, has made it suspicious and it also dont want to see US in Afghanistan.

These all countries are major players and all have very sensitive interests in this battle ground of great game for riches of Central Asia how will they react to US surge ...will be very intresting to see.





What are real American Interests in the region? What is the on ground situation? Will US succeed? What might be American strategy and what will be counter moves by other powers? These are the questions which we will try to answer in Part II of the essay.

Writer is Journalist by Profession who holds Master’s degree in Strategic Studies. He can be reached at mbik14@gmail.com

LOST IDENTITY: Obama’s Troops surge, Greater Game 1

 

[Bill Longley]

LOST IDENTITY: Obama’s Troops surge, The Greater Game Part II

Obama’s new strategy has come out in Public. According to this strategy the war is shifting to Pakistani territory because American establishment believes that top Al Qaeda leader ship is hiding in “SAFE SANCTURIES”. US officials have revealed that now drones will also strike Targets outside Tribal areas of NWFP province and into Balochistan province of Pakistan into settled areas.

According to this new strategy Obama administration is sending 30 thousand more troops to Afghanistan. According to New York Times amongst these troops a marine brigade will be deployed into Helmand where few months ago US and ISAF staged a failed operation code named OPERATION KHANJER. Another brigade will be sent to Qandahar, which is a province from where Taliban movement originated and considered to be strong hold of Taliban and population hostile to occupational forces.

One brigade will be deployed in provinces of Khost, Paktia and Paktika, which borders Pakistan’s North and South Waziristan agencies. One forth of these troops will be used to train Afghan National Army.

Interestingly no report has emerged in media about deployment of NATO or US forces in Nuristan Province, from where US withdrew its forces leaving behind arms and ammunition and where Taliban from Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat, Bajor and Mohmand are regrouping to restart their war in SWAT, BAJOR and MOHMAND agencies.

What will be effect of this surge? Before answering this question first we have to refresh our memories about what happened in past and what is the ground situation.

American invasion of Afghanistan came as a result of terrorist strikes on World trade center and Pentagon. The available evidence led the investigators towards Afghanistan where the group responsible for these attacks “AL QAEDA” was Based and had training infrastructure. Al Qaeda and its Chief Osama Bin Laden came to Afghanistan before the arrival of Taliban on invitation of Then Afghan president Barhanuddin Rabbani but after the takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban became important allies of Taliban due to their wealth and superior ideology which filled the vacuums in inferior Taliban ideology. Due to wealth soon Osama bin Laden became son in Law of Mullah Muhammad Omer which resulted in influence of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Taliban or students were a reaction to miseries of people created by Lawlessness and insecurity due civil war and rule of war lords and criminals who came to power after Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan.

In beginning of Taliban were welcomed by Afghans. They thought that they were the saviors of oppressed by soon after they developed relations with Al Qaeda ,things changed and people started turning against them. Taliban movement originated in Pashtuns and soon Islamists from different ethnicities joined them.

Taliban to some extent changed age old social system of Pashtun tribes. Advancement in Taliban ranks depended on talent not on blood line. This system challenged the tribal Pashtun elites. Taliban were dominated by Gilzai Pashtuns which resulted in opposition of Abdali tribes who have dominated Afghan politics through ages.

After the arrival and alliance with Al Qaeda, Taliban movement changed enormously. Al though they controlled 95 % Afghanistan, they were opposed bitterly by Alliance of Different ethnic and religous groups popularly known as Northern Alliance. This alliance was alliance of criminals, people like blood thirsty General Dostam was Uzbek. He was famous for his lust and thirst for blood and cruelty. Ahmed Shah Masood was the main leader , a tajik from Panjsher, whose boss at a Time Barhanuddin Rabbani invited OBL to Afghanistan and who was equally responsible for carnage in Post Soviet Afghanistan. Then there were Hazaras, a Shia minority race in Afghanistan descendent of Mongols. And criminals and drug traffickers from all races who thought Taliban threat to their rule.

After 911 US asked Afghanistan to hand over Al Qaeda terrorist. Taliban asked for evidence which US provided them but Taliban in their innocence or stupidity were convinced by OBL that US was bluffing to achieve its strategic interest to invading Muslim land and it was not possible for them to execute such attacks.


After Taliban refusal to hand over OBL and His gang, US launched operation against Taliban regime. US reaction was natural but in rage it decided to allay itself with Criminal drug and war lords of Northern Alliance.

Pashtuns are the biggest ethnic group of Afghanistan and traditionally they ruled Afghanistan. Northern Alliance was dominated by Tajiks and other ethnic groups. Al though US installed Hamid Karzai, the new prime minister who is Pashtun by ethnicity, the main ministries were given to Northern Alliance. This resulted in under representation of biggest ethnic group and over representation of minorities. This contributed already sensitive Pashtun Population who saw, themselves to be on receiving end only due to being member of ethnic group which happened to be that to majority of Taliban.

Americans and its allies relied on Northern Alliance who now had opportunity to take vendetta from Pashtuns which they failed to take from Taliban. Thousands and Thousands of Pashtuns were killed and as reported by Independent human right organizations a genocide of Pashtuns took place especially in North of Afghanistan with courteous help from western Allies of Northern Alliance. US could have done excellent if it held checks on northern alliance by it did not and lost Pashtuns due to its faith and dependence on criminals and war lords.

One thing which should not be forgotten is that majority of Pashtuns celebrated the demise of Taliban regime. But in year and so the same Pashtuns who celebrated the Taliban demise started joining Taliban resistance. With every innocent dead due to collateral damage or wrong over whelming use of high handed tactics by ISAF or Northern alliance dominated Afghan government support in Pashtun areas for Taliban increased. Recently the Tajik senior ANA officer in Zabul, Major General Jamaluddin Sayed, dismissed the locally recruited national police in the province as being under Taliban influence and called for recruitment of police from outside the province. This is a small example of how Pashtuns are treated in Afghanistan under the watchful eyes of liberators who became imperial. Taliban movement which was a religious movement has now become a Pashtun National movement creating troubles not only in Afghanistan but also in Pakistan.

Conduct of western forces in Pashtun areas is also contributing in strengthening Taliban. Due to conservative nature of Pashtun society and “Enlightened nature” of western culture things are getting bad to worst. Occupational forces treat Pashtuns like all Pashtuns are terrorists and disrespect the cultural values of Pashtun society which further make Pashtuns anti Occupation. Intoxicated in power ISAF especially Americans use over whelming power. As an Urdu proverb says “they kill fly with artillery gun”. May be this is due to Western concepts of war. But this fails in warrior society like Pashtuns and creates more hostility.

Afghan occupation by Americans and their treatment to Pashtuns is taking toll from Pakistan. Pakistan has world’s biggest Pashtun Population. Pakistan wrongly supported western Jihad against Soviets and became ally of Capitalist Block. US and its Capitalist allies throughout cold war used Islamic extremism against Godless communism. As an ally and front line state Pakistan became hub of jihadists.

After the withdrawal of soviets Pakistan alone had to deal with American mess. After the fall of soviets US and Capitalist allies also lost the utility of these extremists. Soon these allies of America became its enemies and hence Al Qaeda from data base of Jehadies brought to Pakistan became a net work of Militant jihadi’s.

Post Afghan Invasion has created Real Politik environment. In this environment different states are actors are fighting or supporting each other to gain their policy ends.



To be Continued……

LOST IDENTITY: Obama’s Troops surge, The Greater Game Part II

 

[Bill Longley]

LOST IDENTITY: Obama's Troops surge, The Greater Game Part III

President of United States of America, Barak Obama announced his new Afghan troops surge and Strategy in his address to cadets at West Point military Academy on 1st December 2009. In his address he announced sending 30000 troops to Afghanistan and appealed NATO countries also to send more troops.
According to statements coming from US is sending troops to Afghanistan for defeating Taliban and also training Afghan National Army. The first contingent will be deployed before Christmas this year.
Although Obama said in his speech that US forces will start withdrawing in 2011 but high ranking US officials including Sectary of States Hillary Clinton has categorically said that its expected year of American withdrawal, realistically troop withdrawal will depend upon situation. If situation worsen this can be delayed for years.
American officials have made it clear that they think Al Qaeda and Taliban have sanctuaries in Pakistan. They have specially pointed towards FATA and Balochistan where they think Al Qaida and Taliban leadership is hiding.
Americans have threatened Pakistan that now they will pursue Taliban and Al Qaeda into Pakistan and drones will hit Taliban in Balochistan and Other settled areas. They say Although Pakistani forces have achieved remarkable success against TTP but it is unwilling to hit Haqqani Network and Quetta Shura, which according to them are threat to American interests in Afghanistan.
Interestingly US officials have ruled out any nation building efforts in Afghanistan. American troops will only concentrate building ANA and fighting Taliban.
Without going in further details I will discuss what possible game is and what will be possible reactions from other big players in the region.
First thing which we understand from policy statements coming from Pentagon and white house is that America is not leaving Afghanistan in next 10 or 20 years. We will see permanent American bases here even if at all US withdraws its some troops in 2011 or when ever.
Looking at the map, which I will call chess board, we see, US CENTCOM headquartered in Qatar with bases in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan and also in Azerbaijan, and other central Asian Countries having full eyes on Russia, China and other important countries.. (For further details see Obama's Troops surge, The Greater Game Part I).
China and Russia are emerging powers competing with US, and then there is Iran delicious minerals filled state but not obedient to US and west.
World’s second largest oil and gas reserves are present in Central Asia, keeping Peak oil in mind, , race is for oil reserves (see WAR ON TERROR, WAR MANY DON’T KNOW). In words of one of my friend, Mid East and Central Asia are two Weights of Power Dumbbell, where as Pakistan and Afghanistan is the rod joining the weights. Whoever holds this dumbbell holds it through Pakistan and Afghanistan. Whoever holds this dumbbell is the most Powerful in the world.
US interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan are permanent as said many times by American officials. Due to these interests we will not see Americans withdrawal from Afghanistan. According to some senior analysts, US bases in Bagram and Punisher valley will remain even if US and NATO withdraws, because with these Bases, US check on Regional powers will enable it to checkmate moves and counter moves of competing powers. .
The best example is recent rioting in Xingjian. Uliger Rioting in China’s province of Xangiang recently was caused by instigation of Non Residential Chinese Uliger residing in US this year. Many Chinese analysts accused US instigating rioting in Urmaki. Some Analyst thinks it was a warning to china over its interests in Afghanistan.
Why US will keep Basis in Afghanistan gets another argument when we see resurgence of Russia. In 2008 first time after Cold war Russian forces engaged outside forces to protect vital Russian interests. Russian Government accused that US and NATO forces along with military contractors and American mercenaries participating in war against Russia on the side of Georgia. Although US EUCOM denied its involvement but it’s a fact that Americans gave every support which Georgia asked for.
Russian action in 2008 war with close American ally in Europe explains that US needs to encircle and have close military presence near Russia. American Permanent Bases in Bagram and Punjsher will play important role in this strategic central Asian region.

As for Pakistan, Pakistan has sacrificed more than US and NATO combined in Afghanistan. Pakistan is the main victim and also the major ally of US in this war on Terror. Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan, which Pakistani Forces are quite successfully neutralizing through military operations in Swat, Malakand, Aurak zai, Kurram and SWA was result of US occupation and Criminal discrimination with Pashtuns.
Unfortunately Obama or any other US official has said nothing about reoccupying Nuristan and Luger from where US troops left in such a hurry that they left their weapons to be used by Taliban. Reports coming from Bajor says that Taliban activates are increasing. This is exactly what Zia Ur Rehman, Taliban Commander in Nuristan’s spokesman said to Asia time’s correspondent...
In a telephone conversation on Wednesday, a militant linked to Rehman said that now that they had control of Nuristan, the militants are "marching towards Mohmand and Bajor to help their fellow Taliban fighting against Pakistani troops", referring to two tribal agencies across the border.
Anti American sentiments are on rise in Pakistan. A common Pakistan sees America as an imperial power responsible for mess in the region. The so called US drone strikes which American administration says will increase have killed more civilians then Taliban or AL Qaeda operatives. According to New York Times
Press reports suggest that over the last three years drone strikes have killed about 14 terrorist leaders. But, according to Pakistani sources, they have also killed some 700 civilians. This is 50 civilians for every militant killed a hit rate of 2 percent— hardly “precision.”
US military and Civilian leadership are threatening hot pursuit and across the border strikes in Balochistan and NWFP. Pakistani Balochistan is facing low level insurgency since 2003. At this moment there are only hostile sentiments in some ethnic Baloch sectors. Whereas, Pashtuns who are second largest ethnic group in Balochistan have remained peaceful and cooperating. The areas which American officials claim to be sanctuaries are Pashtun areas. Any US attack on Balochistan will create troubles for US which they in heat of emotions are not realizing. Attack on Pashtun areas will militarize the Pashtun society of Balochistan and will not help US in any way.
Secondly it will make ISAF supply line very vulnerable. ISAF supply uses two crossings 1st from Balochistan ‘s Chaman crossing point and other from Khyber’s Tourkham. Last year due to terrorist attacks on NATO supply, ISAF had to face hardships. Then due to US commando Action in SWA on 3rd sep 2008 Pakistan reacted very furiously Pakistani FM called the “US raid on an Angoor Adda village bordering Afghanistan is ‘regrettable, shameful and surprising’,Pakistan stopped NATO supply for few days and it made them NATO to assure that thing will not be repeated. Then again on 22nd September 2008 US and NATO helicopters again tried to enter Pakistani territory but were fired upon by Pakistani forces and they decided to return.
This time things will be different. Although militarily it will not be possible for Pakistan to retaliate but American life line that is line of supply could be blocked. Any lawlessness caused by American stupid action will ultimately damage American and ISAF supply line.
Pakistan has time and again asked US to provide real time intelligence about so called Quetta Shura .Only once they gave some information on which arrests were made and few suspects were killed in exchange of fire.
There is a strong feeling in Pakistan that US is pursuing a policy of deception to achieve its strategic interests. A common Pakistani asks when the provinces like Qandahar, Nuristan, logar and Khost provides safe heavens for Taliban, and US itself reckons that they have no writ there then why should Mullah Omar or other Taliban seek refuge in Pakistan. When US withdraw leaving behind their weapons in strategic provinces like Nuristan then why should the leaders of Taliban hide in Pakistan, which has given results against militants?
If US attacks on suspected targets in Balochistan, situation created will be a threat to Chinese Interests. Pakistan is a strategic ally of China; China has invested billions of Dollars in Gawader and Sandek projects. De-stability in Balochistan due to any American aggression will effect Chinese interests and will be considered as aggression towards Chinese Interests by Chinese. We must remember 48 % of American treasury bonds are property of Chinese.

US is pointing Haqqani network. What is Haqqani network? It got his name from Jalaluddin Haqqani, an important US ally in Afghan jihad against Soviets (Please see Rambo III to know American relations with Militants in that era) Haqqani network is based in Khost not in NWA. They have freedom in Khost and support in Pashtun areas of Paktia and Paktika. Instead of making Khost safe, US is blaming Pakistan. BTW Pakistani government acted against Haqqani in 2005 and forcefully closed Madrassas which have influence of Haqqanies.
US public should understand that mess in Afghanistan and Pakistan is due to US and NATO forces and their Policies. (For Afghan Situation see Obama’s Troops surge, The Greater Game Part II). To defeat Taliban, US must win Pashtuns. The Afghan army which they are so proudly creating is commanded by non Pashtuns and is overwhelmingly constituted by non Pashtuns. This discrimination at every level with Pashtuns is taking its toll and a militant movement has turned into ethnic movement.
This troop surge will be taken negative by common Pashtuns. Especially the deployment plan tells that war will be fought with Pashtuns on either side of border.
On other hand Indian and American interests have proved to be one in Afghanistan. Obama’s troops surge is a big victory for Indians. India is developing Chahbahar port in Iran and roads through Afghanistan to central Asia and developing schools and hospitals around the roads in Afghanistan linking Central Asia . India also has only one military base outside India and that is in Central Asia.
Sitting in Afghanistan ,India is also involved in Terrorism in Balochistan. Recently Pakistani forces have captured 4 trucks carrying Indian Arms . Interestingly before capture of these trucks Shashi Tharoor, Indian Minister of State for External Affair said in an interview that Pakistani nuclear weapons are safe . But immediately after the recovering of Indian Arms the statement changed and Indian foreign ministry spokes women said that they have fear that Pakistani Nukes can fall in militant hands.
India and Iran wants Chahbahar to be of overwhelming importance. For that they see Gawader port, which is on the mouth of Strait of Hurmaz as a threat. India sees itself as a dominant power in south Asia and wants to dictate to its neighbors. Pakistan on other hand don’t reckon this Indian wish. Pakistan is also a strategic ally of China, which is also a thorn in Indian and American eyes. China has invested billions of Dollars in Gawader and Sandek projects. Baloch rebels are hitting only Chinese people in Balochistan where as Americans or Australians are free to roam around in Balochistan which tells who are guideing rebels ( for further details see Obama does his Bush impression and Balochistan is the ultimate prize ).
India sees Gawader as a big threat because Gawader means Pakistan in control of Gulf and Central Asian oil and trade routes. This port will give a big leverage to Pakistan over India.
Iran on other hand is seeing US presence as a threat . Keeping in mind its nuclear program and American stance Iran see US presence as direct threat to its security. Iranians have time and again accused Americans for sponsoring Terror in its Sistan and Balochistan Province and in other provinces like Khuzestan, Kurdistan and Azerbaijan. Americans are giving free hand to Mujahideen e Khalaq from Iraq. In my past essay I tried to prove that Israel will attack Iran as dictated by its strategic culture and US as its protector will help her to do so.
China is one of the main stake holders in this conflict. Al though it’s facing extremism in Xinxiang province but it is not looking US presence positively. China is a super power and main competitor of America. US and china both have eye for central Asian oil reserves. Unfortunately US is looking for help from India but is not inviting SCO to contribute and play its role to stabilize the region. Recently Taliban sent letter to SCO. According to Times of India
the Taliban sent a letter to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
meeting in Beijing on Wednesday to ask the regional body to intervene and solve the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan. the China-Russia-CIS combine against the United States, highlighting the general perception that the SCO is intended to keep the US out of the Central Asian region.
China has invested thousands of Dollars of its tax payers in central Asian oil and gas reserves. It sees alien American presence in Afghanistan as a direct threat. In globalize world anything which happens in region effects china and its economy. Secondly American presence in Afghanistan means that US and its ally India has completed the encirclement of China which no body in china likes.

Then there is Russia which had to fight US proxies in Georgia last year over KEEHAN – BAKU pipeline to safe guard its interests. US presence in its area of Influence is not seen well come by Russians. That is the main reason for growing relations of Russia with Pakistan.
European Union is also one influential actor. France and Germany both have proved reluctant to send more troops in Afghanistan. American unilateralism and demand for sacrifices for its interests from its allies seems to have less effect in EU. EU is emerging as a big economy and has its own strategic perceptions and approaches.
Summing up the whole essay, US will not leave its bases from Afghanistan if US and NATO do not address Pashtun grievances the situation will remain same. Present US strategy was not constructed on keeping in mind the interests of other major Players like China, Russia and SCO.
For peace in Afghanistan, SCO can play and Important role. So far no body has invited it to play its role. At present American economy is in worst condition. Need of time is not realism but compassion and understanding towards problem in south Asia.

CONCLUDED

LOST IDENTITY: Obama's Troops surge, The Greater Game Part III

 

[Bill Longley]

I was right