Nuclear terrorism chance in Pakistan low: expert

[Neo]

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Nuclear terrorism chance in Pakistan low: expert

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: Although an act of nuclear terrorism is of very remote probability in Pakistan, controls around various nuclear installations and radiation facilities are enough to deter and delay a terrorist attack. Any modified diversion would be detected early, while a terrorist group will not favour the fabrication of a radiological dispersion, according to a Pakistani expert.

Abdul Mannan, director of Transport and Waste Safety, Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority, who spent a period of attachment at the Stimson Centre from November 2006 to February 2007, writes in a report released by the Centre that given the access terrorists now have to science and technology, the threat of nuclear terrorism is no longer fiction but real. Terrorists have the intention to inflict catastrophic damage on human beings, property and the environment.

While Pakistan is not considering reprocessing of nuclear materials and hence there may be no need for transportation, the study, based on several low probabilities of sabotage events of spent fuel and high activity sources, shows that an explosion and subsequent fire would cause hundred of deaths and severe damage to surrounding buildings. Whereas in an explosion alone only a few casualties could be expected due to radiation sickness in the area of 200 metres, extensive environmental contamination is to be expected accompanied by potential exposure of thousands of individuals in the downwind zone. The number of people expected to get exposure to unsafe levels of radiation causing late effects leading to cancerous deaths would not only depend on the strength of the radioactive materials but also on the timing and location of the attack.

Mannan writes that a personnel reliability programme has to be made an integral part of any nuclear security infrastructure. He records that in Pakistan, a background check is conducted to verify identity, credit history, criminal history, reputation and character of the personnel employed in nuclear facilities. Additionally, a detailed interview to verify background information and elucidate other potential concerns is conducted at the time of employment or when a sensitive task is being assigned. Not listed by the Pakistani expert is the individual’s inclination towards religious extremism of fundamentalism.

Mannan maintains that any evacuation/sheltering of communities based on a 360° potential-hazard zone may be adopted instead of a cone shaped zone predicted by the code to eliminate the many associated uncertainties and changing wind directions in real situations. Difficulties are likely to arise in informing members of the public in an urban area where it may not be practicable to evacuate such large numbers, or in a rural situation where individuals may be unaware of the incident and who, scattered about the countryside, may be difficult to locate and advise in time.

To dilute the consequences of any successful sabotage event, preplanning is very important through well developed and coordinated efforts of various agencies.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\04\14\story_14-4-2007_pg7_7

 

[Awesome]

lol if it's low, then it's not news!

 

[MirBadshah]

No where in world it is not existant.

There is always a possibility, how secure it is, but as the person have explained that any such thing is a remote possibility.

that is what we can do on human level.

 

[Contrarian]

I think those days are well gone when even India was concerned that Pakistani nukes might fall in the hands of Al Qaida or Taliban.
Musharraf i think has made Pakistan a more stable country.

Though slowly, extremists are again gaining power and influence in Pakistan

 

[MirBadshah]

No chance, extremists are being terminated too quickly.

BTW have you read the repot two weeks back that MAOISTS net wrok have been found in Indian Nuclear reserch Institute? That is the reason, i said it is never 100% secure, we can secure such facility only to human capacity. And Pakistan vigilant about that, so it is a good sign that they are evaluating it regularly.

 

[Contrarian]

Yes, but the signs are all there to see, Mushy is failing now. From protests to fatwa's , there has been a general trend thats increasing now in Pakistan. And something needs to be done to counter that.

 

[Neo]

Imho terrorists won't be going after 'ready to fire' nuclear missiles, which aren't easy to lay hands due size and security. Threat exists in form of dirty bombs, high radioactive material which can be used in high density area's such as cities, train stations or airports.

We don't know what amount of nuclear matierial has already been acquired by terrorists from black market and rogue governments in the past but I'm sure AQ has it.

 

[MirBadshah]

hahaha

You are realy funny, I would only say that, i dont want to conevrt this thred in to offtopic. I would request mods to take care of your habit pushing each thread off topic.

Let us go to Kashmir thread I have posted about security situation of India and pakistan over there, next time try to stick to topic. I would report above post to mods.

 

[MirBadshah]

Imho terrorists won't be going after 'ready to fire' nuclear missiles, which aren't easy to lay hands due size and security. Threat exists in form of dirty bombs, high radioactive material which can be used in high density area's such as cities, train stations or airports.

We don't know what amount of nuclear matierial has already been acquired by terrorists from black market and rogue governments in the past but I'm sure AQ has it.

Last week a tube containing highly enriched material was stolen from Indian labs, the police says it is enough to effect one and a half mile area, few months back a truck carrying radioactive material was hijacked in India and have not been found yet.

Same is situation with former SU materials, no one knows how much went where.

Pakistan is doing its best and have adopted all measures to secure her facilities, but things happen and would keep on happening as long as its human being controlling.

 

[Neo]

I think those days are well gone when even India was concerned that Pakistani nukes might fall in the hands of Al Qaida or Taliban.

I don't think India actually believed in such threat at all; the issue was raised to further isolate Pakistan as it coincided with the AQ Khan affaire.

Early stages of post 9/11 era was a difficult time for GoI to accept; Pakistan became a major US ally in WoT, received MNNA status, sanctions and embargoes were lifted, USaid was to be restored soon etc...

To raise the nuclear threat issue was merely a desperate attempt to delay the progress in US-Pak relationship.

 

[MirBadshah]

This kid do not have idea about anything he talks, the incidents of nuclear prolifiration have been happening in world since the tech came in existance. It have happened a dozen time in US, India and every other place, most of the time such incidents do not go public.

I have asked him what he thinks of security level in India when a MAOIST network was detected just last week in Indian reserch facility, both husband and wife working there were arrested, and maoists are the deadliest threat to Indian security according to Indian prime minister.

But he did not replied and go to raise salogans, I do not think he got any serious capacity to discuss things.

 

[Contrarian]

I don't think India actually believed in such threat at all; the issue was raised to further isolate Pakistan as it coincided with the AQ Khan affaire.

Early stages of post 9/11 era was a difficult time for GoI to accept; Pakistan became a major US ally in WoT, received MNNA status, sanctions and embargoes were lifted, USaid was to be restored soon etc...

To raise the nuclear threat issue was merely a desperate attempt to delay the progress in US-Pak relationship.

Yeah, could be possible. But this was the time when there had just been a coup i think, and Mushy had come to power. Israel too was speclating these things.

Then again, that is a far cry from now.

 

[Contrarian]

This kid do not have idea about anything he talks, the incidents of nuclear prolifiration have been happening in world since the tech came in existance. It have happened a dozen time in US, India and every other place, most of the time such incidents do not go public.

I have asked him what he thinks of security level in India when a MAOIST network was detected just last week in Indian reserch facility, both husband and wife working there were arrested, and maoists are the deadliest threat to Indian security according to Indian prime minister.

But he did not replied and go to raise salogans, I do not think he got any serious capacity to discuss things.

When have you asked me what i think of security level in India? I have concurred in many posts that Maoist threat is indeed the biggest threat to India. But its not so much a military threat, and the solutions cannot be achieved by the military, its a chronic economic problem. Such problems need a political and economic approach. This thread is bot about india, dont try to turn every thread or every problem India centric.

 

[MirBadshah]

Then what the hell they were doing inside the Nuclear reserch Institute? they were on picnic there or what? From where you are talking MAOISTS controll 14 states out of 29 states and have killed more then 11,000 people.

You are saying thay are not military threat but a social threat>>>>>

What is social threat by the way? and Why dont you consider it as a military threat when they killed "Special force" guys and that too 53 just last week in a single attack and then 16 after that?

 

[Contrarian]

Then what the hell they were doing inside the Nuclear reserch Institute? they were on picnic there or what? From where you are talking MAOISTS controll 14 states out of 29 states and have killed more then 11,000 people.

Dude, do you know what CONTROL here means? Its not as though they run the state. It means that these are the states in which they have RELATIVELY more influence than the rest. They dont control any state.

You are saying thay are not military threat but a social threat>>>>>

What is social threat by the way? and Why dont you consider it as a military threat when they killed "Special force" guys and that too 53 just last week in a single attack and then 16 after that?

Every problem has an underlying reason. The reason for Maoist problem is that there are those who are very poor, those in the lowest rungs of India's economic situation. These are the people who are being exploited by the Maoists to join them. This is a socio-economic problem at the grassroot level in these areas, which needs to be solved in such a manner.