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Not all the news is bad - Zafar Hilaly
By the looks of it matters are going from bad to worse. Just about everything from governance, to law and order and the economy is in a nosedive and far from stabilising the economy, IMF conditions have only accelerated the process. Even India, which had much to gain by driving a hard bargain over trade and trade routes with Nawaz Sharif chose not to engage with him, at least until the momentum of our decline slows down.
Of course, the Indian prime minister had other and more parochial reasons. But the song and dance he makes of terrorism is a charade. Manmohan Singh knows we can no more control the TTP/mujahideen than he can the Maoists. And anyway thats more, and not less, reason to engage Pakistan.
Meanwhile the TTP is drooling over the prospect of establishing an Islamic caliphate. Having rejected adherence to the constitution as a prior condition for talks, the TTP upped the ante by adding a precondition of its own the end of US drone strikes. But just when many of us heaved a sigh of relief that talks with the brutal outfit, could surely no longer proceed we learn that talks are already underway somehow, somewhere. Absurdly, it seems, neither side takes what they themselves say seriously.
All this is happening as Gen Kayani prepares to hand over to his successor. It was made to appear that it was Kayani himself who finally decided to call it a day as if he had an option. But lets not delve into that; lets give him credit for taking the right decision and letting the government off the hook. And also for his gesture towards the political leadership, thereby underscoring the importance he attached to democracy. Although, as everyone knows, the army is a poor training corps for democracy, no matter how inspiring its cause.
Kayani appeared exhausted when a few of us met him four months ago, as if he had given his all shot his bolt. He also seemed bereft of fresh ideas. Moreover, he had become controversial. That said, it would be a pity if his rich experience is not harnessed in some way to improve the quality of decision-making on national security issues because those handling the subject at the moment are not men of any notable talents.
The expected policy review, following Kayanis departure, will likely determine the outcome of our present travails and the nations future for a generation to come. Future policy must broadly encompass a whole set of problems, specifically the following questions:
After the major part of the American forces have withdrawn in 2014 Karzai, or his successor, will likely be supported by the residual US forces, India, Iran, Russia, CAS, etc. Will we then support the Taliban? If we do the TTP will thrive in Pakistan and if we dont we will incur Taliban/TTP wrath. Whats our narrative?
Over the years we have not been able to cut-off financial flow to the TTP; we have not been able to wean away any significant public support for the TTP which though not popular in Fata is not loathed with the intensity it deserves. The TTP is operating mostly on its home terrain which is perfectly suited for insurgency operations.
Furthermore, they have sanctuaries across the Afghan border whence they also receive recruits, arms and supplies to which India and the Karzai government contributes considerably and to which the US turns a blind eye. Can we really wage a successful counterinsurgency operation in these circumstances even if historys verdict is an emphatic No?
The TTP is all around us. It has well-wishers, if not actual spies, in most institutions. Furthermore, it is milking us through kidnappings and extortions and through a nexus with Punjabi militants and criminals. Meanwhile, we cannot even step into its domain in North Waziristan and elsewhere. Whats our plan to counter this?*
The only bit of Pakistan that is secure at the moment is the heartland around Islamabad and Lahore. The rest is destabilised or in the process of becoming so. Security gets worse as you travel towards the borders. Some areas are only marginally under our control; over others we have zero control. Whats our plan to regain control?
We have allowed religious militants to flourish and expand. No one dare criticise them in public. They effectively have the run of the place. They say what they like and there is no counter narrative. In fact appeasement and media shenanigans act as force multipliers for them. That we are a soft state is a gross understatement; we cant even enforce traffic laws. What, if anything, do we propose to do about it?
National security now includes economic security, water security, food security, human security, as well as territorial, internal and external security. Where do we stand with regard to each of these and where are we headed, given our record population growth? *
Can we wait for judicial and police reforms or do we tackle the threat with what we have? Who gives us a national threat estimate after co-coordinating the output of all intelligence agencies? If we ever get a threat estimate, who will develop response options and decide on the one that is to be implemented by orchestrating all the national resources?
Why do we not tackle the problems we face frontally? By, say, banning hate speech of all kinds; strangling financial inflows to banned organisations; cleaning up madressahs; making kidnapping and extortion a federal offence, hanging the guilty and overriding all local constraints to tackle them?
Our problem is a lack of governance, which is steadily and rapidly eroding the environment. The point of no return is approaching. A feeble government and a centre weakened by the 18th Amendment, zero human security; rapid economic decline; growing income disparity; uncontrolled violence and criminality, etc, all point to a massive denouement of the state. What do we propose to do about it?
If the doom and gloom such questions convey are far too reminiscent of a Cassandra, lets not forget that Cassandra turned out to be right. But if its some consolation not all the news is bad.
The fact is there are many forces that drive people against each other and provoke bloody conflicts. But there are also constructive and conscious forces in the life of societies and civilisations which protect them and open up optimistic perspectives. After all we are 190 million people and crucially many, many more young than old; we have infrastructure railways, canals, airlines, roads, agriculture, industry, etc; we have institutions; we have expertise so we cant just soften, melt and flow down the drain.
Pakistanis must recognise that everything we have, everything we are our security, our education we owe to our own civilisation and not to any other, not Arab, Afghan or American and certainly not that of the Taliban/TTP. That is why we must do everything we can to protect and save Pakistan and to that end let go of our personal or party preoccupations.
Finally, we mustnt fear war, for we are already there we are already at war. Now we must bend all our efforts to win it. And we can.
By the looks of it matters are going from bad to worse. Just about everything from governance, to law and order and the economy is in a nosedive and far from stabilising the economy, IMF conditions have only accelerated the process. Even India, which had much to gain by driving a hard bargain over trade and trade routes with Nawaz Sharif chose not to engage with him, at least until the momentum of our decline slows down.
Of course, the Indian prime minister had other and more parochial reasons. But the song and dance he makes of terrorism is a charade. Manmohan Singh knows we can no more control the TTP/mujahideen than he can the Maoists. And anyway thats more, and not less, reason to engage Pakistan.
Meanwhile the TTP is drooling over the prospect of establishing an Islamic caliphate. Having rejected adherence to the constitution as a prior condition for talks, the TTP upped the ante by adding a precondition of its own the end of US drone strikes. But just when many of us heaved a sigh of relief that talks with the brutal outfit, could surely no longer proceed we learn that talks are already underway somehow, somewhere. Absurdly, it seems, neither side takes what they themselves say seriously.
All this is happening as Gen Kayani prepares to hand over to his successor. It was made to appear that it was Kayani himself who finally decided to call it a day as if he had an option. But lets not delve into that; lets give him credit for taking the right decision and letting the government off the hook. And also for his gesture towards the political leadership, thereby underscoring the importance he attached to democracy. Although, as everyone knows, the army is a poor training corps for democracy, no matter how inspiring its cause.
Kayani appeared exhausted when a few of us met him four months ago, as if he had given his all shot his bolt. He also seemed bereft of fresh ideas. Moreover, he had become controversial. That said, it would be a pity if his rich experience is not harnessed in some way to improve the quality of decision-making on national security issues because those handling the subject at the moment are not men of any notable talents.
The expected policy review, following Kayanis departure, will likely determine the outcome of our present travails and the nations future for a generation to come. Future policy must broadly encompass a whole set of problems, specifically the following questions:
After the major part of the American forces have withdrawn in 2014 Karzai, or his successor, will likely be supported by the residual US forces, India, Iran, Russia, CAS, etc. Will we then support the Taliban? If we do the TTP will thrive in Pakistan and if we dont we will incur Taliban/TTP wrath. Whats our narrative?
Over the years we have not been able to cut-off financial flow to the TTP; we have not been able to wean away any significant public support for the TTP which though not popular in Fata is not loathed with the intensity it deserves. The TTP is operating mostly on its home terrain which is perfectly suited for insurgency operations.
Furthermore, they have sanctuaries across the Afghan border whence they also receive recruits, arms and supplies to which India and the Karzai government contributes considerably and to which the US turns a blind eye. Can we really wage a successful counterinsurgency operation in these circumstances even if historys verdict is an emphatic No?
The TTP is all around us. It has well-wishers, if not actual spies, in most institutions. Furthermore, it is milking us through kidnappings and extortions and through a nexus with Punjabi militants and criminals. Meanwhile, we cannot even step into its domain in North Waziristan and elsewhere. Whats our plan to counter this?*
The only bit of Pakistan that is secure at the moment is the heartland around Islamabad and Lahore. The rest is destabilised or in the process of becoming so. Security gets worse as you travel towards the borders. Some areas are only marginally under our control; over others we have zero control. Whats our plan to regain control?
We have allowed religious militants to flourish and expand. No one dare criticise them in public. They effectively have the run of the place. They say what they like and there is no counter narrative. In fact appeasement and media shenanigans act as force multipliers for them. That we are a soft state is a gross understatement; we cant even enforce traffic laws. What, if anything, do we propose to do about it?
National security now includes economic security, water security, food security, human security, as well as territorial, internal and external security. Where do we stand with regard to each of these and where are we headed, given our record population growth? *
Can we wait for judicial and police reforms or do we tackle the threat with what we have? Who gives us a national threat estimate after co-coordinating the output of all intelligence agencies? If we ever get a threat estimate, who will develop response options and decide on the one that is to be implemented by orchestrating all the national resources?
Why do we not tackle the problems we face frontally? By, say, banning hate speech of all kinds; strangling financial inflows to banned organisations; cleaning up madressahs; making kidnapping and extortion a federal offence, hanging the guilty and overriding all local constraints to tackle them?
Our problem is a lack of governance, which is steadily and rapidly eroding the environment. The point of no return is approaching. A feeble government and a centre weakened by the 18th Amendment, zero human security; rapid economic decline; growing income disparity; uncontrolled violence and criminality, etc, all point to a massive denouement of the state. What do we propose to do about it?
If the doom and gloom such questions convey are far too reminiscent of a Cassandra, lets not forget that Cassandra turned out to be right. But if its some consolation not all the news is bad.
The fact is there are many forces that drive people against each other and provoke bloody conflicts. But there are also constructive and conscious forces in the life of societies and civilisations which protect them and open up optimistic perspectives. After all we are 190 million people and crucially many, many more young than old; we have infrastructure railways, canals, airlines, roads, agriculture, industry, etc; we have institutions; we have expertise so we cant just soften, melt and flow down the drain.
Pakistanis must recognise that everything we have, everything we are our security, our education we owe to our own civilisation and not to any other, not Arab, Afghan or American and certainly not that of the Taliban/TTP. That is why we must do everything we can to protect and save Pakistan and to that end let go of our personal or party preoccupations.
Finally, we mustnt fear war, for we are already there we are already at war. Now we must bend all our efforts to win it. And we can.
