North Korean ballistic missile development

[Ivan the Immigrant]

(*reposting from North Korea defence thread)
There are still lot of confusions about North Korean missiles and their classifications but now we at least know this for sure:

Hwasong-12
Sucesfully tested: 14 May 2017, 29 August 2017 and 15 September 2017

Hwasong-12 on 6-axes TEL:

Hwasong-14
Sucessfully tested: 4 July 2017 and 28 July 2017

Hwasong-14 on 8-axes TEL:

Hwasong-12 is somewhat smaller missile than Hwasong-14. I found some speculations that Hwasong-12 is actually a first stage of Hwasong-14. However this seems not to be correct since Hwasong-12 has smaller diameter thus making it lower class missile than Hwasong-14. But what is confusing is that both Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 probably use the same rocket engine what again puts them in same class. Big question is why North Korea complicate thing with building two different missiles of different proportions in the same class, testing both missiles separately, etc.. It would be much more easier and less complicated to build only one missile in this class?

possible comparison:

Whatever, one thing is for sure: Now with Hwasong 12 and 14 North Korea showed something 'for real'.

 

[Ivan the Immigrant]

Hwasong-14 would be first operational test of Kn-08 and Kn-14 missiles which were more like a prototypes. Kn-14 is considered just redesigned and simplified Kn-08. Kn-08 were supposed to have 3 stages and Kn-14 design cutted it to 2 stages. But this is proposed to be the same missile and it is deployed on the same 8-axis TEL(Transport Erect Vehicle) as Hwasong-14:

Kn-08

Kn-14

 

[Ivan the Immigrant]

Hwasong-10 also known as 'Musudan':

On this picture we see a Hwasong-10 or Musudan missile which uses the same 6-axes TEL as Hwasong-12 missile. Hwasong-10 missile was tested several times but it never made a success. All Hwasong-10 tests are presumed failures. We can ask question: How come that Hwasong-10 which was put under tests couple of years before never made a success and now suddenly Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 which are bigger and more complicated missiles are tested successfully in very short time period?

Possible comparison(Hwasong-10(Musudan), Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 missiles):

 

[Tang_BJ]

Hwasong-10 also known as 'Musudan':

On this picture we see a Hwasong-10 or Musudan missile which uses the same 6-axes TEL as Hwasong-12 missile. Hwasong-10 missile was tested several times but it never made a success. All Hwasong-10 tests are presumed failures. We can ask question: How come that Hwasong-10 which was put under tests couple of years before never made a success and now suddenly Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 which are bigger and more complicated missiles are tested successfully in very short time period?

It's not too difficult to answer this question, we can replace it with another question, which country will benefit from North Korea crisis?

 

[Ivan the Immigrant]

It's not too difficult to answer this question, we can replace it with another question, which country will benefit from North Korea crisis?

Very hard to foretell the future but as for now I think North Korea is benefiting the situation because they gained ICBM which they did not have before.

 

[Tang_BJ]

Very hard to foretell the future but as for now I think North Korea is benefiting the situation because they gained ICBM which they did not have before.

Of course North Korea,but who provided ICBM to North Korean?why?

 

[Ivan the Immigrant]

Of course North Korea,but who provided ICBM to North Korean?

I am not sure if you are implying on Russia or China. Most certainly North Korea relies on Russian technology and Chinese material support. Yet I am not sure in what extent. Because if you do imply that Russia or China provided North Korea ICBM, well, they did not towed an ICBM on a truck across the border, right? North Korea designed, built and tested it on it's own...

 

[Muhammed45]

NK has gone a long way in this regard, no way to return on nego table.

They have to develop ICBM which can deter American threat. A hard way but a good result will be the outcome of this stand off. China has passed through the same route.

Of course North Korea,but who provided ICBM to North Korean?why?

90+ percent of NK'sforeign trade is being done with China.
IMHO China is not going to hand over her backyard to her economic-military rival.

 

[Ivan the Immigrant]

(*Sorry for not providing links on articles, I still cannot post links)

7 days ago
(*Reuters)
North Korea seen moving missiles from development center: South Korean broadcaster
SEOUL (Reuters) - Several North Korean missiles were recently spotted moved from a rocket facility in the capital Pyongyang, South Korea’s Korean Broadcasting System (KBS) reported late Friday amid speculation that the North was preparing to take more provocative actions.
The report cited an unnamed intelligence source saying South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials detected missiles being transported away from North Korea’s Missile Research and Development Facility at Sanum-dong in the northern part of Pyongyang.

Today
(*Reuters)
North Korea preparing long-range missile test: RIA cites Russian lawmaker
MOSCOW (Reuters) - North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile which it believes can reach the west coast of the United States, a Russian lawmaker just returned from a visit to Pyongyang was quoted as saying on Friday.
Anton Morozov, a member of the Russian lower house of parliament’s international affairs committee, and two other Russian lawmakers visited Pyongyang on Oct. 2-6, Russia’s RIA news agency reported.
“They are preparing for new tests of a long-range missile. They even gave us mathematical calculations that they believe prove that their missile can hit the west coast of the United States,” RIA quoted Morozov as saying.


Most likely they are going to test Hwasong-14 on non lofted trajectory. Most logical trajectory would be south of Hokkaido and over northern part of Honshu thus the trajectory would be aimed in the Pacific ocean toward South America. They are going to hit somewhere around French Polynesia , Tahiti, IMO. I am over 50% sure they are going to fire nuclear warhead as surface test over Pacific this time but almost certainly not with first round. They need to test fire one or two Hwasong-14s with dum warhead first to reassure missile functions properly. Third one could be coupled with nuclear warhead.

THIS IS MY PREDICTION ON FOLLOWING NOKO MISSILE TEST TRAJECTORY: