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This year certainly has been an "annus horibilis," to borrow Queen Elizabeth II's pithy term. Next year could bring even worse.
Hot spots we should be watching in 2009:
- America's $13.7-trillion bubble economy will further deteriorate. After decades of intoxication on the steroids of reckless borrowing and cheap credit, America faces rehab. The U.S. Treasury's reckless printing of billions must eventually create a firestorm of inflation. A debased U.S. currency, rising unemployment, and destroyed savings will encourage extremism and political violence around the globe. The Pentagon may not get $534 billion it wants to dominate the globe and wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In spite of president-elect Barack Obama's election promises, there is no end in sight to either conflict.
- Canada must unfairly suffer America's woes in spite of having avoided Wall Street's frauds. To restore its economy, Ottawa must slash personal and corporate taxes and cut military spending.
- Russia is in a surly mood, feeling under siege by NATO. U.S. and NATO attempts to bring Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance risk igniting a truly dangerous crisis. Thanks to the kindergarten behaviour of Ukraine's feuding politicians, that wobbly nation courts possible breakup, civil war, even re-absorption into Mother Russia.
- Nuclear armed India and Pakistan, which fought three wars over divided Kashmir since 1947, are again at scimitar's drawn over the Himalayan mountain state. The Mumbai massacre last September, likely conducted by Kashmiri separatists, underlines the urgent need to settle this crisis. Kashmir remains the world's most dangerous nuclear confrontation. Between 40,000-80,000 Kashmiris have died since an anti-Indian independence struggle erupted in 1989.
- Iran continues to advance its nuclear program to the point where it could make weapons, if it so desired. Israel is pushing the U.S. to attack Iran even though U.S. intelligence says Iran has halted weapons programs. Israel may attack on its own, hoping to draw the U.S. into war against Iran. This would expose U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan to heavy attacks by Iranian special forces and possible closure of the Gulf, which supplies around 40% of the world's oil.
- Africa's worst humanitarian crisis is not in Darfur but in Somalia. Half its 10 million people face starvation. Somalia's only somewhat effective government in the past decade, a moderate Islamic movement, was overthrown by a U.S.-Ethiopia invasion two years ago, creating anarchy and the ongoing wave of Somali piracy. The U.S. and Britain may soon intervene militarily in Somalia and Zimbabwe.
- The 60-year Palestine conflict will continue, dashing hopes for peace. American supporters of Israel's right wing parties, led by Likud, have already blocked efforts by the new Obama administration to press Israel into land for peace concessions. This conflict will continue to poison America's relations with the Muslim world.
- The long rule of Egypt's 80-year old dictator, Hosni Mubarak, could end in 2009, igniting a violent power struggle. This U.S.-sustained dictatorship is ripe for Islamic or nationalist revolution, led by a later-day Gamal Abdel Nasser.
- Iraq will remain a violent, splintered wreck, run by gunmen and American troops. If large numbers of U.S. troops withdraw, its civil war may resume. Iran will tighten its grip on Iraq.
- Afghanistan will be to Obama what Iraq was to George W. Bush. Pentagon plans to double the number of U.S. troops there by spring will intensify the war and spread it ever deeper into Pakistan, which is already a smoking volcano of violence and rebellion. Canada is getting sucked in ever deeper as it reconfigures its threadbare military for colonial warfare. Expect attacks on Canada or its interests abroad.
- China's rapidly falling exports, the engine of its near 10% annual growth, are already producing mounting social unrest. If China's "social capitalism" falters, watch out for an internal explosion. Watch also for rising tensions in Thailand and Korea, where the death of dictator Kim Jong-il, followed by "unanticipated reunification," scares the wits out of Seoul and Tokyo.
No shortage of hot spots in '09 | Eric Margolis | Columnists | Comment | Toronto Sun
Hot spots we should be watching in 2009:
- America's $13.7-trillion bubble economy will further deteriorate. After decades of intoxication on the steroids of reckless borrowing and cheap credit, America faces rehab. The U.S. Treasury's reckless printing of billions must eventually create a firestorm of inflation. A debased U.S. currency, rising unemployment, and destroyed savings will encourage extremism and political violence around the globe. The Pentagon may not get $534 billion it wants to dominate the globe and wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In spite of president-elect Barack Obama's election promises, there is no end in sight to either conflict.
- Canada must unfairly suffer America's woes in spite of having avoided Wall Street's frauds. To restore its economy, Ottawa must slash personal and corporate taxes and cut military spending.
- Russia is in a surly mood, feeling under siege by NATO. U.S. and NATO attempts to bring Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance risk igniting a truly dangerous crisis. Thanks to the kindergarten behaviour of Ukraine's feuding politicians, that wobbly nation courts possible breakup, civil war, even re-absorption into Mother Russia.
- Nuclear armed India and Pakistan, which fought three wars over divided Kashmir since 1947, are again at scimitar's drawn over the Himalayan mountain state. The Mumbai massacre last September, likely conducted by Kashmiri separatists, underlines the urgent need to settle this crisis. Kashmir remains the world's most dangerous nuclear confrontation. Between 40,000-80,000 Kashmiris have died since an anti-Indian independence struggle erupted in 1989.
- Iran continues to advance its nuclear program to the point where it could make weapons, if it so desired. Israel is pushing the U.S. to attack Iran even though U.S. intelligence says Iran has halted weapons programs. Israel may attack on its own, hoping to draw the U.S. into war against Iran. This would expose U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan to heavy attacks by Iranian special forces and possible closure of the Gulf, which supplies around 40% of the world's oil.
- Africa's worst humanitarian crisis is not in Darfur but in Somalia. Half its 10 million people face starvation. Somalia's only somewhat effective government in the past decade, a moderate Islamic movement, was overthrown by a U.S.-Ethiopia invasion two years ago, creating anarchy and the ongoing wave of Somali piracy. The U.S. and Britain may soon intervene militarily in Somalia and Zimbabwe.
- The 60-year Palestine conflict will continue, dashing hopes for peace. American supporters of Israel's right wing parties, led by Likud, have already blocked efforts by the new Obama administration to press Israel into land for peace concessions. This conflict will continue to poison America's relations with the Muslim world.
- The long rule of Egypt's 80-year old dictator, Hosni Mubarak, could end in 2009, igniting a violent power struggle. This U.S.-sustained dictatorship is ripe for Islamic or nationalist revolution, led by a later-day Gamal Abdel Nasser.
- Iraq will remain a violent, splintered wreck, run by gunmen and American troops. If large numbers of U.S. troops withdraw, its civil war may resume. Iran will tighten its grip on Iraq.
- Afghanistan will be to Obama what Iraq was to George W. Bush. Pentagon plans to double the number of U.S. troops there by spring will intensify the war and spread it ever deeper into Pakistan, which is already a smoking volcano of violence and rebellion. Canada is getting sucked in ever deeper as it reconfigures its threadbare military for colonial warfare. Expect attacks on Canada or its interests abroad.
- China's rapidly falling exports, the engine of its near 10% annual growth, are already producing mounting social unrest. If China's "social capitalism" falters, watch out for an internal explosion. Watch also for rising tensions in Thailand and Korea, where the death of dictator Kim Jong-il, followed by "unanticipated reunification," scares the wits out of Seoul and Tokyo.
No shortage of hot spots in '09 | Eric Margolis | Columnists | Comment | Toronto Sun
