New base year from FY12 for GDP counting2005-06

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

New base year from FY12 for GDP counting2005-06 is new base year for GDP calculation of the country.→

daily sun | business | New base year from FY12 for GDP counting

Mazharul Anwar Khan

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the current fiscal year 2011-12 would be calculated benchmarking 2005-06 as the new base year. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is doing necessary works in this regard.

Taking to daily sun, Statistics Division Secretary Riti Ibrahim said the GDP base year would be upgraded to 2005-06, and the necessary works were going on in this regard.

The statistic division is upgrading the GDP base year as massive structural change has taken place in the country’s economy in last 15 years.

A consultant of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already met the concerned Statistics Division officials in January. Dr AC Kulshrestha, the IMF expert, trained the BBS officials and put forward some recommendations before the statistics division in this regard. The IMF consultant will sit with the BBS officials again soon to complete the necessary work, said an official.

Updating the base year through revising the GDP estimation has become essential for various reasons including newer economic activities, progressive expansion and downsizing of various industries and economic sectors over the years. Changes in relative prices of commodities also require revision to correctly mirror the real growth.

At present, the GDP is estimated by benchmarking 1995-96 fiscal as the base year, sources said. Meanwhile, different sub sectors under 15 fixed sectors which are main indicators of GDP counting are being reshuffled as there is no option to change the fixed sectors.

BBS sources said 15 sectors were identified as per the system of national account (SNA), 1993 for counting the GDP that was also approved by the United Nation. It is also an international benchmark. Bangladesh started GDP counting since 1988-89.

The fifteen sectors include agriculture and forestry, fisheries, mineral resources, industry, power, gas and water resources, construction, whole and retail sales, hotel and restaurant, transport, communi-cations, economic institutions, real estate, rented and other business, public administration and defense, education, health and social service, and community, social and personal services.

BBS sources said these 15 sectors are unchangeable. In a revised base year, Knitwear, woven, button and washing factory will be defined separately in the industry sectors.

Similarly, private universities, coaching centre and English medium schools were also included in the education sectors. More than 50 private universities were established in the country last decade that contribute to the GDP.

Economic institution service including bank, insurance and non banking sectors was considered as government institutions. But, the private bank, economic institution and insurance will be included to count their contribution as thousand of people are employed in those organisations.

Service sector has also received massive changes over the period. Mobile phones, courier service, private television and package programme are boosting in terms of business. Huge numbers of people are involved in those services. Whenever the GDP base year was formulated, those areas did not exist or existed in limited scale.

The heath-service sector has also flourished which includes private hospital, clinic and diagnostic centre and a huge number of doctors, nurses as well as non-medical people are employed in the sub-sector. Their contribution to the GDP will be counted in the new system.

Production of agricultural crops particularly vegetables and other minor crops recorded rapid growth while new crops were also developed.

Similarly increased the contribution of poultry, livestock, fisheries, fish fry helping to diversify sources of agricultural growth.

Construction industry is also booming following the massive urbanisation and commercialisation. Information and communication sector is also expanding is also expanding at a phenomenal rate.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Private banks account around 40% of the transactions in BD and they are not counted for GDP :-O. Can any one explain me whether the above mention sectors are completely excluded from the GDP or not taken in to account fully and how far it can give boost to the economy!!!

 

[DaFan]

Private banks account around 40% of the transactions in BD and they are not counted for GDP :-O. Can any one explain me whether the above mention sectors are completely excluded from the GDP or not taken in to account fully and how far it can give boost to the economy!!!

of couse banks transactions in BD are counted for GDP, can u give a credible source that says otherwise?

 

[idune]

Current Awami regime is desperate to cook up economic data that it is caught 3 times doing so already.

First: cookup GDP growth data.

Second: cooked up per capital income data

Third: Then cooked up population data

Awami regime came to power with slew of economic promises 3 years ago. But instead of delivering regime stagnated Bangladesh economy and resorted to cooking economic data. Now any change in GDP calculation or base year should be taken with grain of salt.

 

[damiendehorn]

So whats the betting, on the new GDP? 120, 130, 140.....

 

[DaFan]

A consultant of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already met the concerned Statistics Division officials in January

Are you implying the Awami league is that strong to bring the IMF on this "cooking" too? your conspiracy are too funny. Your hate for Awami league os quite evident but seriously....Please find a better hobby.

 

[TopCat]

Private banks account around 40% of the transactions in BD and they are not counted for GDP :-O. Can any one explain me whether the above mention sectors are completely excluded from the GDP or not taken in to account fully and how far it can give boost to the economy!!!

Private banks and financial institutes constitute 60% of the financial sector and no they are not counted in the current GDP calculation. In 1995 there was hardly any private bank in BD.

 

[TopCat]

of couse banks transactions in BD are counted for GDP, can u give a credible source that says otherwise?

Private banks werent included in GDP

 

[idune]

CPD finds holes in GDP growth estimate
It says investment does not support govt projection
FE Report

A local think tank Saturday has found fault with the government's projected economic growth for the current fiscal year, saying the investment over the past nine months does not support such expansion.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has said the economy is poised to expand by 6.66 per cent --- the highest since mid 1970s - in the 2010-11 fiscal year, driven by high manufacturing growth and a recovery in farm output.

But the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said the GDP growth figure does not match with the reality because the country has witnessed a meagre investment growth in the current fiscal year.

"A marginal increase in investment from 24.4 per cent of GDP to 24.6 per cent cannot help GDP attain a 6.7 per cent growth," Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, CPD's distinguished fellow, said.

"We can say this phenomenon as zero investment growth. And as a result, the growth should be either 6.2 or 6.3 per cent, not 6.7 per cent," Debapriya told a press conference.

He also said the government should not make the GDP growth rate as a political "score-sheet". "There is a need for independent scrutiny to ensure the credibility and transparency of national accounting system."

Debapriya said the government statistics should be transparent, but he added that weak estimate may provide a very different signal to the policy makers, resulting in inappropriate policy advice.

He, however, said the government's GDP projection for FY12 at 7.0 per cent needs at least 2.0-4.0 per cent additional investment.

"Attaining a seven per cent GDP growth target for FY12 will once again depend on continued good show by the farm sector and added contribution from the manufacturing sector, especially exports has to grow as good as last year," he said

Debapriya made the comments while presenting the CPD's annual report on the "State of the Bangladesh Economy" in FY2010-11. Its executive director, Mustafizur Rahman, and senior research associates also joined the press conference.

According to the CPD, inflation would remain a headache for the policy makers in the next fiscal. The think tank predicts the rate to be no less than 7.0 per cent.

The think tank said the government should take steps to implement the recommendations made by Khondker Ibrahim Khaled-led probe committee on the share market scam.

Debapriya was critical of the government's role in tackling the share market debacle in December-January. "Definitely, there was weakness on the part of the finance ministry," he said.

The economist also said the liquidity problem in the country's banking system will persist for some time and "it will create problems in the mid term for the investors."

About the central bank's monetary policy, he said it has no relation with the real picture of the economy. "Apparently, the Bangladesh Bank was ignoring non-compliance by the commercial banks before the crash of the capital market," he said.

The CPD suggested political parties make greater consensus on major contentious issues and stressed that political stability should be ensured at the first place for attaining sustainable economic growth.

Criticising the government's bloating subsidy bill on fuel imports, power and exports, Debapriya said such large-scale public expenditure is not "economically prudent".

CPD finds holes in GDP growth estimate

 

[idune]

In budget session finnace minister reference BD per captial income $800 when in fact it is half of that.
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BBS halves per capita income

Wed, Jun 22nd, 2011 3:07 pm BdST Dial 2000 from your GP mobile for latest news

Dhaka, June 22 (bdnews24.com)—The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has halved the per capita income of the country after its recent survey on household expenditure revealed that in 2010 the yearly per capita income was Tk 30,636 or $418.

In contrast to BBS data, Bangladesh Economic Review showed per capita income for 2010-11 is at $818 or over Tk 57,000.

When asked about the incongruity, Statistics Division secretary Riti Ibrahim told bdnews24.com she did not know where the Bangladesh Economic Survey got the data.

"Only BBS conducts household income and expenditure survey and it found out that per capita monthly income is Tk 2,553 and if it multiplied by 12, one can get the yearly figure," she said.

The BBS recently completed its Household Income and Expenditure Survey for 2010 and found out that per capita income rose by 72 percent from 2005.

In 2005 the monthly per capita income was Tk 1,486.

The survey also revealed national poverty rates at 31.5 percent, a decline of 8.5 percentage points from 2005.

About 21 per cent of urban population are poor while the figure is 35.2 percent for rural areas.

Poverty rate is the highest in Barisal region with 39.4 percent while it is lowest in Chittagong at 26.2 percent.

Average per capita monthly consumption is Tk 2447 at national level, an increase of 99 percent from 2005.

bdnews24.com/ssz/bd/1439h

BBS halves per capita income | Bangladesh | bdnews24.com

 

[idune]

A consultant of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already met the concerned Statistics Division officials in January

Are you implying the Awami league is that strong to bring the IMF on this "cooking" too? your conspiracy are too funny. Your hate for Awami league os quite evident but seriously....Please find a better hobby.

See the news item posted....and before make comments know the topics otherwise you will be making yourself subject of joke.

 

[idune]

Here Awami regime cooking up population data


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A census without consensus

Mohammad Badrul Ahsan

Thank God they were handling numbers not real people, it could have been one of the worst genocides in the history of mankind. Last Saturday, the planning minister announced the findings of the 5th population census, claiming that Bangladesh has a population of 142.3 million. In October 2010, the United Nations Population Fund had arrived at a figure of 164.4 million. More than 22 million people evaporated in the gas chambers of conflicting figures in roughly six months.
The UNFPA subsequently eliminated 16.4 million in its revised estimate in the face of strong protest from the Bangladesh government. As patriotic citizens of the country, we should believe what our own government says. But one would still ask how did the UN body come up with the higher figure, its revised enumeration still exceeding the government enumeration by 5.7 million?

Frankly speaking, in our inveterate liking for foreign opinions, we have subconsciously accepted the UNFPA figure. And that figure has been made apparent by the reality of the country. Standstill traffic, soaring prices, crowded neighbourhoods, packed shopping centres, scramble for land and housing, scarcity of gas, electricity and water and the prevailing atmosphere of chaos and incontinence give us the feeling that the population of the country had a runaway growth.

Then, of course, we have to use our common sense. The population was 76.40 million in 1974. Then it was 89.9 million in the1981 census, which increased to 111.45 million in 1991 and 130.5 million in 2001. The average population growth in three previous censuses was registered around 20 million. Given the utter neglect of family planning programmes in the country for last ten years, it is hard to believe that this average should be lower, if not higher, for the decade in review.

That should have easily taken the population figure above 150 million in this census. So, the government announcement last week gave us the shock of a plummeting plane. The figure dropped when it was expected to go up.

The smaller-than-expected population size must give us the mental relief of a claustrophobe finding open space. It means we have 125 fewer people per kilometer than what the original UNFPA survey had claimed. We have that many fewer people contending for food, clothing, shelter and employment. We should have that much free space in the fields and on the roads. Even better, one has to infer from the agriculture minister's comment that we should have surplus stock of rice.

Instead, the census has left us in an existential quandary. What about those nameless and faceless 22 million plus people, who either existed or still exist in the cracks of controversial counting? It is a significant chunk of our population, a good 14%, which cannot be explained as error margin. How could either the Bangladesh government or UNFA be right or wrong by such a wide margin?

Net-net, the whole thing has been a rather poor show for this country. There have census scandals in other countries as well. In July last year the census conducted in Brooklyn, New York proved flawed. Many luxury rental and condominium buildings had strict "no enumerator" policy. There were also tenement buildings and private houses where it was unclear as to how many people lived in them. Some enumerators went for public search records on the Internet or merely wrote the names of the mailboxes. The mid and upper level census managers encouraged field staff to "guesstimate."

Some of these lapses have allegedly happened in our census as well. Complaints have surfaced that the enumerators often counted people without going to their doorsteps. Party workers were employed to collect data as if political loyalty should qualify anybody to fly airplanes.

These are but a few examples of why counting may not get hundred percent. In fact, a census never gets the full scale. That is why statistical enumerations use confidence interval and margin of error as indications of their reliability. But so far it looks like Bangladesh's population is anybody's guess.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the United States of America has reported in its July 2011 report that Bangladesh has a population of 158.5 million. In 2009, the United Nations Children's Fund counted 162.2 million people. The same year the World Bank figure was 160 million.

The confusion within the government is not negligible. The Statistical Pocket Book 2009 issued by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics showed the population as of July 2009 was 146.6 million. Bangladesh Economic Review 2010 put the figure at 146.1 million. Yet another study conducted by the ICDDR,B researchers claimed the population was 147 million in mid-2007.

Even wedding planners need to know the exact number of guests. And, we are talking about a country. What if, God forbid, millions indeed have been lost in the count?

A census without consensus