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NASA chief: Free world locked in moon race against China
Bill Nelson warns Beijing may try to monopolize lunar resourcesMITSURU OBE, Nikkei Asia chief business news correspondentFebruary 16, 2023 13:27 JST
TOKYO -- The head of the U.S. space agency warned in a recent interview that China could try to monopolize key resources on the moon, as the world's two superpowers race to put humans back on the lunar surface.
For the U.S., commercial and international partnerships are the way to win the competition, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told Nikkei Asia. China, for its part, is exploring collaboration with Russia.
Nelson framed the competition as "a race between the free world and China."
He expressed concern about the possibility of China reaching the moon's south pole and saying, "Everybody else, stay out."
"That is the area that we think the water resources are, and that's important for scientific research for the international community," he stressed.
China and Russia have announced their intention to set up a permanent lunar base at the south pole in the 2030s, with an eye toward crewed missions.
But Nelson sounded bullish on NASA's new era of lunar exploration. "We are going back to the moon, but this time with international partners, and with commercial partners," he said.
NASA administrator Bill Nelson speaks to Nikkei Asia during a Feb. 8 interview in Tokyo.
In November, NASA's Orion spacecraft orbited the moon and returned to Earth, the first in a series of lunar missions known as the Artemis program. In the second phase, NASA plans to send a crew of four -- three Americans and a Canadian -- this year to circle the moon and test Orion's life-support system.
The Artemis 3 mission, scheduled for the end of 2025, will send a crew of four into lunar orbit again. But this time, two astronauts -- a woman and a person of color -- are expected to descend to the surface near the south pole, in what will be the first crewed lunar landing since 1972. The lander will be developed by American billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX, an example of the commercial partnerships Nelson hailed.
"We're excited about all the commercial applications, because it will allow us to execute our strategy with less expense," said Pam Melroy, NASA's deputy administrator, who also attended the interview. She explained how the agency approaches such projects.
"We look and determine that if there's a commercial application, that we partner with commercial so that we get it at lower cost. If there's no commercial application, we develop it in house," she added.
In the U.S., the technological capabilities of the private sector are rapidly growing, while NASA focuses on things like strategy and ensuring the safety of astronauts.
"Whenever we contract with a private industry, if it involves human astronauts, then NASA is all over it to make sure that it's safe," Nelson said. "The design would be reviewed. It would be critiqued. If it involves humans or government property, NASA will be involved in an advisory role. ... And of course, NASA would have a veto if there's a safety problem."
Private technologies are developing so quickly that the government has a hard time keeping up with them. One example is the arrival of new satellite operators such as SpaceX's Starlink, which boasts more than 3,000 satellites and plans to operate around 12,000 in all.
This fuels both excitement and concern.
"What we are worried about is that we see these big [satellite] constellations happening so fast, and that they bring in a new technology that we are just beginning to discuss," Melroy said. "It's hard when the industry moves so fast. Governments have to try to work hard to keep up."
NASA Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy speaks to Nikkei reporters during an interview on Feb. 8 in Tokyo.
Challenges include ensuring safety in Earth's increasingly crowded orbit and dealing with risks from space junk, such as old satellites and rocket fuselages.
"This has become a major problem because there's so much junk up there," Nelson said. "It's threatening, from time to time, the International Space Station with our astronauts and so forth."
In the last 10 years, orbital debris tracked by the U.S. Department of Defense has increased by about 60% to 27,000 pieces, and the amount is growing at a faster pace. Scientists are concerned that the debris density will reach a level where there will be a chain reaction of collisions, rendering Earth's orbit unusable.
In March 2021, China's new meteorological satellite, Yunhai 1-02, was struck by a small piece of debris from a Russian Zenit rocket launched 25 years ago. The satellite broke up. It was the first major confirmed collision since February 2009, when a defunct Russian military spacecraft, Kosmos-2251, slammed into a U.S. Iridium communications satellite.
In November, 2021, a satellite destroyed by a Russian anti-satellite missile test created more than 1,500 pieces of trackable debris, forcing the International Space Station to maneuver to dodge fragments. The seven astronauts on board took refuge within their Soyuz and Dragon vehicles docked to the space station, as the ISS passed through fields of debris.
There are guidelines on space junk, but no mandatory international rules. Countries are now trying to create rules with teeth to bring the amount of debris under control.
Japan, the host of the Group of Seven meetings this year, intends to highlight the issue and forge an agreement on reducing space junk.
G-7 foreign ministers could also call for a ban on anti-satellite missile tests, such as those conducted by China and Russia in 2007 and 2021. The U.S. last year unilaterally pledged not to conduct such testing. China and Russia are unlikely to get on board, however, as they see such a move as an attempt to prevent their technological progress.
"One of the challenges we face is that when we gather a large group together, it can take time to work through agreements," Melroy said. But she added, "I would say there is a very strong broad consensus that we need to work internationally."
NASA chief: Free world locked in moon race against China
Bill Nelson warns Beijing may try to monopolize lunar resources
asia.nikkei.com