Myanmar General Discussion (non military)

[longyi]

Are you Burmese (your username suggests you might be)? If not, can you read Burmese?

I'm not a Burmese and neither do I read the language. Somehow I just acquired a great interest in Sino-Tibetan and Tibeto-Burman related minority issues a few months back and like to read up on them when I have free times. Perhaps someday, as a personal hobby, I'll chart them when I gain enough information.

 

[alaungphaya]

ahaha yes you have about $100 above per GDP capita, but your GDP size is less than half of our GDP size.

That's because there are 3 times* as many Bangladeshis as there are Burmese.

*atleast

 

[BDforever]

That's because there are 3 times* as many Bangladeshis as there are Burmese.

*atleast

see the power of population ?
not just Bangladesh, But also India and China

 

[hans]

The US will not be able to make the same influence as China on Myanmar..
Myanmar is so close to China and so far from US.
Also US has so much issue. Myanmar is much less important in US`s global view.
Yet Myanmar is quite important to China, which provide a shorter router to India ocean..

Thanks for the article. My takeaways:

1). It's always a good sign when great powers are fighting for the right to build infrastructure for you, especially if they assume most or even all of the cost.
2). The rapid build out of instrastructure bodes well for your economy, which in turn will make Myanmar even more desirable.
3). In many aspects, Myanmar already behaves like a Western country. Protests to block infrastructure projects over environmental and social issues? Is this Myanmar, or San Francisco?

I hope the US is clever enough to get in on the action. If Myanmar can at least be kept out of China's sphere of influence, it provides both of us good options in the future. I disagree that Myanmar's growing relationship with India provides an opening for the US, however. India has made clear, for decades, that it does not regard an alliance with the US as desirable, so I wonder at the journalist's reasoning behind that assertion.

Thailand grow up because it opens to the world.
It is very nice to tourist and also foreign investment. A lot of plants are set there.
I am wondering why Myanmar will turn down China investment, which will at least bring jobs and money to Myanmar.
This kind of issue will definitely warn foreign investors that Myanmar is in unstable states.
Any investment may suffer to lose.
Then how could Myanmar grow its economy...

There was actually an article in The Economist the other day which suggested that Myanmar should turn itself into a sweatshop like Bangladesh before trying to bridge the gap with our old rivals Thailand but seeing as I can't seem to cut and past from there you'd have to look it up yourself. Quite a ridiculous notion seeing as both our GDP growth rate and per capita GDP are above Bangladesh.

Generally speaking, all the development news coming out of Myanmar is currently positive so I don't feel posting them all would contribute to the discussion.

The clothes are used be made in China.
But nowadays I see quite a lot from Bangladesh..
Labor cost in China has grown up and low cost country like Bangladesh will be more popular..

see the power of population ?
not just Bangladesh, But also India and China

 

[alaungphaya]

The US will not be able to make the same influence as China on Myanmar..
Myanmar is so close to China and so far from US.
Also US has so much issue. Myanmar is much less important in US`s global view.
Yet Myanmar is quite important to China, which provide a shorter router to India ocean..



Thailand grow up because it opens to the world.
It is very nice to tourist and also foreign investment. A lot of plants are set there.
I am wondering why Myanmar will turn down China investment, which will at least bring jobs and money to Myanmar.
This kind of issue will definitely warn foreign investors that Myanmar is in unstable states.
Any investment may suffer to lose.
Then how could Myanmar grow its economy...



The clothes are used be made in China.
But nowadays I see quite a lot from Bangladesh..
Labor cost in China has grown up and low cost country like Bangladesh will be more popular..

- Like I've said many times before, the traditional policy of the Burmese is neutrality. We are friends to all and allies to no one. The US is more than welcome to involve itself in Myanmar and its proxies Japan and Korea are already engaging very heavily.

Myanmar is not turning down Chinese investment, we are picking and choosing what we want.

China is a nation of 1 billion and when it moves up the value chain countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar are going to benefit. My point is that Bangladesh is an economy based on sweatshops where its workers are no better than animals. This is not something I want in my country. We should not put all out efforts into becoming a sweatshop economy. Added to this, I don't think the payoffs from labour intensive industries are the same as when the likes of China, Thailand etc. industrialised.

Myanmar's growth should and will be based on agriculture and other commodities. Yes, commodities have snapped their long bull run but with an ever increasing global population and the inevitable loss of arable land because of climate change, Myanmar is in a great position to be the ricebowl of the world (something we were before the war). Plus, Myanmar is a very literate society so any investment in technical education should see some impressive multipliers in the long run.

 

[hans]

I would say your idea is good.
yet for countries with great population in poor states, like China, Myanmar, Bangladesh,
this kind of sweatshop is a must stage..
At least it bring jobs and money.When your countries develops, the salary will increase and life will be better..
This is what happening in China, after 20 years of sweatshop time, salary is increasing very fast, life improves a lot
Otherwise, you will be like India, only minority is rich, majority is so poor..
Also big projects like what China invest today is very helpful for economy.
It will bring money and jobs in very short time.

agriculture is feeding people but not going to make people rich..
Industries are necessary part of modern life

- Like I've said many times before, the traditional policy of the Burmese is neutrality. We are friends to all and allies to no one. The US is more than welcome to involve itself in Myanmar and its proxies Japan and Korea are already engaging very heavily.

Myanmar is not turning down Chinese investment, we are picking and choosing what we want.

China is a nation of 1 billion and when it moves up the value chain countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar are going to benefit. My point is that Bangladesh is an economy based on sweatshops where its workers are no better than animals. This is not something I want in my country. We should not put all out efforts into becoming a sweatshop economy. Added to this, I don't think the payoffs from labour intensive industries are the same as when the likes of China, Thailand etc. industrialised.

Myanmar's growth should and will be based on agriculture and other commodities. Yes, commodities have snapped their long bull run but with an ever increasing global population and the inevitable loss of arable land because of climate change, Myanmar is in a great position to be the ricebowl of the world (something we were before the war). Plus, Myanmar is a very literate society so any investment in technical education should see some impressive multipliers in the long run.

 

[Aepsilons]

I would say your idea is good.
yet for countries with great population in poor states, like China, Myanmar, Bangladesh,
this kind of sweatshop is a must stage..
At least it bring jobs and money.When your countries develops, the salary will increase and life will be better..
This is what happening in China, after 20 years of sweatshop time, salary is increasing very fast, life improves a lot
Otherwise, you will be like India, only minority is rich, majority is so poor..
Also big projects like what China invest today is very helpful for economy.
It will bring money and jobs in very short time.

agriculture is feeding people but not going to make people rich..
Industries are necessary part of modern life

It is not like Myanmar , as an underdeveloped state, has the blessings of picking and choosing investment opportunities. It simply receives what is thrown at her. Besides, the average wage in Myanmar (Burma) is so about 1/3rd an average Thai gets paid. In the event that there are offshoring seen in that country, as in any other underdeveloped Southeast Asian states such as Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam; the cost to operate will be quite appreciable to said investor. Industrialization is key, and as you mentioned, it is a "must". Let us take for example Thailand. During the 1970s Thailand was not an industrial center, but after over 3 decades of investment, it is one of the major manufacturing centers in ASEAN; with a high gdp per capita as compared to say Laos, Vietnam, Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines.

Will Burma reach parity with say Thailand soon ? No, of course not. Even in 20-30 years, i don't think so because it does not have the infrastructure, or the political stability as in Thailand, irrespective of the coup situation. Burma is a communal society; it still has rivaling factions, armed as well, such as Karen groups, Chin, Wa, Shan. In fact, there are over 100,000 Shan refugees in northern Thailand near border of Chiang Mai , which is close to Burma's border. These displaced individuals must be returned to Burma for some kind of regional stability to happen. But so long as the Junta in Rangoon continues to play ethnic cards, this communal, or ethnocentrism will remain a barrier to national consolidation and peace in Burma.

 

[hans]

Right...
Thailand is much better in SE Asian countries.
Yet compare with Japan, which have much more High tech industries, the salary is much higher.
Thailand could be replaced by other low cost countries, Japan can hardly replaced by other countries.
That is the affect of Industrialization...

It is not like Myanmar , as an underdeveloped state, has the blessings of picking and choosing investment opportunities. It simply receives what is thrown at her. Besides, the average wage in Myanmar (Burma) is so about 1/3rd an average Thai gets paid. In the event that there are offshoring seen in that country, as in any other underdeveloped Southeast Asian states such as Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam; the cost to operate will be quite appreciable to said investor. Industrialization is key, and as you mentioned, it is a "must". Let us take for example Thailand. During the 1970s Thailand was not an industrial center, but after over 3 decades of investment, it is one of the major manufacturing centers in ASEAN; with a high gdp per capita as compared to say Laos, Vietnam, Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines

 

[Aepsilons]

Right...
Thailand is much better in SE Asian countries.
Yet compare with Japan, which have much more High tech industries, the salary is much higher.
Thailand could be replaced by other low cost countries, Japan can hardly replaced by other countries.
That is the affect of Industrialization...

Thailand is the major manufacturing center in ASEAN right now, in terms of Japanese businesses there, the production chain is heavily developed in the country. I mean, relative to Japanese or American workers, the salary of Thai engineers, technicians is relatively very low. Plus, the high literacy rates in Thailand, large population pool, friendly culture, strong bilateral relations with Tokyo and Krungthep (Bangkok) is what makes Thailand our #1 choice in mainland Southeast Asia.

Don't get me wrong, the choice to move some minor facilities to say Cambodia and Laos would be feasible (but limited). Laos and Cambodia do not have the man power or the port advantage that we look for. Thailand has a relatively developed infrastructure, and has a large population (trainable, hard working, proven) that makes it the top choice.

Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia are also contenders.

 

[hans]

I mean in case of severe issues like war, earthquake, flood, etc, the Thailand may be no longer suitable..
Then other countries can replace Thailand.
Yet if the same issue happen on Japan, there could hardly any countries that can replace Japan.
I don`t mean the replacement right now.
currently supply chain is decided by many options.
It is better to be the most important key that cannot be replaced..

Thailand is the major manufacturing center in ASEAN right now, in terms of Japanese businesses there, the production chain is heavily developed in the country. I mean, relative to Japanese or American workers, the salary of Thai engineers, technicians is relatively very low. Plus, the high literacy rates in Thailand, large population pool, friendly culture, strong bilateral relations with Tokyo and Krungthep (Bangkok) is what makes Thailand our #1 choice in mainland Southeast Asia.

Don't get me wrong, the choice to move some minor facilities to say Cambodia and Laos would be feasible (but limited). Laos and Cambodia do not have the man power or the port advantage that we look for. Thailand has a relatively developed infrastructure, and has a large population (trainable, hard working, proven) that makes it the top choice.

Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia are also contenders.

 

[Aepsilons]

I mean in case of severe issues like war, earthquake, flood, etc, the Thailand may be no longer suitable..
Then other countries can replace Thailand.
Yet if the same issue happen on Japan, there could hardly any countries that can replace Japan.
I don`t mean the replacement right now.
currently supply chain is decided by many options.
It is better to be the most important key that cannot be replaced..

I see what you're trying to say, and yes, of course. In the event of some kind of asymmetrical disaster , the manufacturing centers could easily be moved to other nations in Southeast Asia. I think its important that , in regards to foreign investors, have to conduct feasibility studies to see what are the risks in any nation , so that preparation can be made.

But yes. That said. **Knock on wood**

lol

 

[somsak]

Currently Thailand is trying to established a new industrial environment at Myanmar's Dawai. I guess it would be those oil& gas thing because Indian Ocean direct to Bangkok. If so, there will be a lot of investment by Oil related industries. So soon, Myanmar also become industrialized. I guess if this project complete, does it means we do not have to pay Singapore as middle man for oil?

 

[Aepsilons]

Currently Thailand is trying to established a new industrial environment at Myanmar's Dawai. I guess it would be those oil& gas thing because Indian Ocean direct to Bangkok. If so, there will be a lot of investment by Oil related industries. So soon, Myanmar also become industrialized. I guess if this project complete, does it means we do not have to pay Singapore as middle man for oil?

I remember reading article a while back about Isuzu planning to increase capacity in Thailand. Specifically they mentioned about plans to double the combined manufacturing capacity of its facilities at Samrong in Samut Prakan province and the Gateway City Industrial Estate in Chachoengsao province. Have you heard any updates on that?

 

[TopCat]

Yeah, pretty much. The buzzword right now is 'federalism' and they are talking about 'Pinlon 2'; a revised union charter of the one from 1947. In my opinion, a lot of these ethnic leaders prolong the conflict because it adds to their power base. I swear the main reason a lot of these guys are still fighting is so that they can come down to Yangon in their SUVs and patronise the various karaoke parlours during "peace talks". It's a shame the Kachin group started up again after such a long period of peace but once their leaders have enough economic concessions they'll give up. Like I linked at the beginning of the thread, the Rohingya solution has already been decided upon. The rest will eventually form up into a quasi-federalist union and the question of ethnic representation will forever be put to bed.

What is the decision?

 

[somsak]

I remember reading article a while back about Isuzu planning to increase capacity in Thailand. Specifically they mentioned about plans to double the combined manufacturing capacity of its facilities at Samrong in Samut Prakan province and the Gateway City Industrial Estate in Chachoengsao province. Have you heard any updates on that?

Not so sure. Isuzu is prosperous in Thailand. I heard that Isuzu is out-compete from Japan market, is that true?