musharraf developed Pakistan because of US aid ~ myth busted

[VCheng]

.......................
Essentially, Musharraf's era was nothing more than a failure to exploit a window of opportunity. In credit, Shaukat Aziz's efforts till 2003 had helped fix some issues..but after that it seemed that mismanagement and lack of actual interest in improving the country took over. The illusion that was the consumerism fuelled economic advance was bound to fall... and this country was to head to worse states due to it.

@Aeronaut @Secur @VCheng @Dillinger

Excellent series of posts with a good analysis and conclusion. Thank you for posting that.

In addition to the conclusions of the report you quoted, I will further contend that the first few years of Musharraf era benefited greatly from the influx of funds and support that flooded Pakistan immediately post 9/11 by a booming MilBus sector, just like in the post-Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. However, failure to pay attention to fundamental flaws in the overall economy, including infrastructure, meant that the consequences caught up relatively quickly, and the party was over.

Then why the duality of views? It is the same old story I feel. Mostly, those who were part of that burst of speed of the gravy train are the ardent supporters. Those who were not, or had the ability to see behind the curtain, can see how the rest of the country was simply left behind, to the overall detriment of the nation. The final results in terms of failures are striking similar for both the post-Zia and post-Musharraf era, with Pakistan coming off poorly in the long run.

Oh, and if it is any consolation, the periods of civilian rule are just as bad, if not worse.

 

[niaz]

Without doubt US Aid was instrumental during Musharraf years of progress. US aid has since continued, why the decline as soon as PPP came to power?

There is no myth involved, only in the minds of the ignorant. Answer lies in better governance. I have often posted reasons for the better economic progress during military rule, be it Ayub Khan, Zia ul Haq or Musharraf. Indulge me for its repetition.

In the army there is an inherent system of checks. If you order a wall to be built, it may be a little less in height, thickness and length, but it will be built because someone will physically inspect it before the contractor is paid. On the other hand in Pakistan democracy (also in Nigeria). Wall may never be built, in fact it is possible that on paper it is built and then shown as washed away during floods and then rebuilt. No one cares about the wall; instead all are only interested in lining their pockets with public money. PPP regime is even worse than PML-N’s.

I am not a supporter of dictatorship, but I have to admit that governance during Musharraf era was 10 times better than the period since. Pakistanis should also thank Musharraf for allowing private TV channels.

Pray tell me, how many of Musharraf’s sons, brothers & nephews became billionaires during his 8 years in power?

 

[Slayer786]

The funny thing with facts is that I can give examples where it showed that during Musharraf's rule, Pakistan was progressing. it was the best time in decades.

One thing I can say from my own personal experience was that Musharraf visited new Zealand in 2005-2006 and got access to 200 PHds students from Pakistan to New Zealand universities. From that time onwards Phd students from Pakistan have been consistently coming here and I have met many of them here. And most of them are thankful to President Musharraf for making this happen.

Musharraf Era: Pakistan Flourishes
Compiled By: Mirza Rohail B


All this is all the more amazing when one considers that just six years ago, Pakistan was on the verge of bankruptcy, with only a little more than $1bn in foreign exchange reserves and its stock market teetering at 1,000 points (worth $5 billion only) and foreign debt servicing at 65% of GDP. Our exports were at a pitiful $7.5 billion.

The once ever-declining rupee stood stable at around 60-61 to a dollar since Musharraf took over. Of the 184 member countries of the IMF, Pakistan’s rate of economic growth 7% is one of the best in the world. The Karachi stock market is now above 13,000 points and worth around $65 billion. Now foreign debt servicing has lowered to become 28%. Our exports increased to become $18 billion.

1. Pakistan economy is among the fastest growing economies in the world as its economy has reached the size of $170 billion from a mere $70 billion in 1999. Pakistan attracted a record FDI of $8.6 billion in 2007-08.

2. 2007: National revenues had swelled from Rs 308 billion during 1988-99 to around Rs 800bn in 2007; and FBR estimates now 2.8 million Income Tax payers.

Year Total CBR Direct Indirect Custom Sales Central excise

1998-99 308.5bn 110.4bn 198.1bn 65.3bn 72bn 60.8bn

2005-06 712.5bn 224.6bn 487.9bn 138.2bn 294.6bn 55bn

2008-09 810.3bn 305bn – 105.3bn 319.3bn 80.5bn (2008-09 Progressive)

3. Public sector development program (PSDP) has also grown from Rs 80 billion in 1999; to Rs 520 billion in 2007 and increased further to Rs 549.7 billionin 2008.

4. FACT: The rate of growth in Pakistan Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is at a 30-year high. Construction activity is at a 17-year high.

LSM: 1999-00 was 1.5% and 2004-05 was 19.9% and 2006-07 was 8.6% and 2007-8 is 5%.

5. FACT: The Infrastructure Industries Index, which measures the performance of Seven industries, i.e. Electricity generation, Natural gas, Crude oil, Petroleum products, Basic metal, Cement and coal, has recorded a 26.2 percent growth in Industrial sector of Pakistan.

6. FACT: Jan 14: Pakistan now has a total of 245,682 Educational institutions in all categories, including 164,579 (i.e. 67 per cent) in the public sector and 81,103 (i.e. 100 per cent) in the private sector, reports the National Education Census (NEC-2005). The census — jointly conducted by the Ministry of Education, the Academy of Educational Planning and Management (AEPAM) and the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) — reveals that the number of private-sector institutions has increasedfrom 36,096 in 1999-2000 to 81,103 in 2005, i.e. by 100 per cent. 45,007 Educational Institutions have increased in Musharraf Era.

7. FACT: Pakistan is 3rd in world in Banking profitability, a report of IMF said. On the IMF chart, Pakistan’s banking profitability is on third position after Colombia and Venezuela. On the IMF chart India is on 36th position and China is on 40th position. Pakistan’s Banking sector turned profitable in 2002. Their profits continued to rise for the next five years and peaked to Rs 84.1 ($1.1 billion) billion in 2006

8. 11 May 2009: By producing 7.746 tonnes of gold during the last five years – 2004 to 2008 – Pakistan joins the ranks of gold producing countries. According to the data with the Saindak Metal Limited – during the last five years – Pakistan has produced 86,013 tonnes of copper, 7.746 tonne gold and 11.046 tonne silver, besides the production of 14,482 tonnes of magnetite concentrate (iron), bringing in a total of $633.573 million.

9. In 1999 what we earned as GDP: we used to give away 64.1 % as foreign debt and liabilities. Now in 2006, what we earn as GDP: we give ONLY 28.3 % as foreign debt and liabilities. Now we are SAVING 35 % of Our GDP for economic growth.

According to Department of Finance, External debt & liabilities (EDL) and DAWN:

 

[airmarshal]

Under Musharraf Pakistan fluorished as he did emphasize on governance. Also better economic management. Musharraf was a man whose heart was in Pakistan, not in London, Dubai or Saudi Arabia where the looters whom we call leaders have invested their looted wealth.

Its also a fact that for five years between 2002 and 2007, Pakistan loan payments were deferred and US provided $300 million dollars per year as direct budgetary support. Thats approximately 5 to 600 million dollars for development, which is a lot of money.

 

[SQ8]

Excellent series of posts with a good analysis and conclusion. Thank you for posting that.

In addition to the conclusions of the report you quoted, I will further contend that the first few years of Musharraf era benefited greatly from the influx of funds and support that flooded Pakistan immediately post 9/11 by a booming MilBus sector, just like in the post-Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. However, failure to pay attention to fundamental flaws in the overall economy, including infrastructure, meant that the consequences caught up relatively quickly, and the party was over.

Then why the duality of views? It is the same old story I feel. Mostly, those who were part of that burst of speed of the gravy train are the ardent supporters. Those who were not, or had the ability to see behind the curtain, can see how the rest of the country was simply left behind, to the overall detriment of the nation. The final results in terms of failures are striking similar for both the post-Zia and post-Musharraf era, with Pakistan coming off poorly in the long run.

Oh, and if it is any consolation, the periods of civilian rule are just as bad, if not worse.

And it is those who are ardently supporting him with all effort. The Civilian rule was just as bad or worse..but it was part of a system... a system never allowed to flourish by our many dear saviours.

 

[xyxmt]

you cannot double up the GDP of the country with foreign aid. Fundamental restructuring took place in many segments to achieve the growth.

Dr. Atta ur Rehman's article in The News is fairly insightful about some of the aspects mentioned above:
Lest we forget - Dr Atta-ur-Rahman

Musharaf like any govt did some good work, but the results of it evaporated as soon as he left
Govt is remembered for some mega project which benefit coming generations and I dont see anything as such from Musharaf era, unless you count some roads as development there are none.

 

[Juice]

What aid does is take a little pressure off the budget...nothing more. Unless you are Haiti or the ilk....lets you spend just that little bit more on domestic concerns....it will never be that big a part of over-all spending. (most aid is military....even that which doesn't appear military at first often is)

 

[SQ8]

Musharaf like any govt did some good work, but the results of it evaporated as soon as he left
Govt is remembered for some mega project which benefit coming generations and I dont see anything as such from Musharaf era, unless you count some roads as development there are none.

Road that were planned(and many initiated) during Nawaz Sharifs government.

 

[Cherokee]

@Oscar . Is it true Pakistan Army owns or participate in private/govt Industries . Is it allowed ? If it is does any other army does it ?? I caught this thing from one of the articles you posted in this thread .

 

[mr42O]

why i am suprised MQM supporters here to save Musharaf ??

I thought MQM was against Army take over but now show supports ? What does MQM stands for ?

 

[blain2]

I too wonder why you are surprised by MQM's support for Musharraf? Swatis and the inhabitants of Dir also support Musharraf for the work he was able to get done in their respective areas. If the MQM and others did not support Musharraf, it would be a case of them becoming ingrates given the support they received through massive infusion of budget for their developmental work and it shows.

MQM has never been against Army takeovers given that it was created and established through another Army takeover (Zia's) to counterbalance MRD and eliminate PPP's grip on Karachi. MQM is a local/provincial party and worries about who will fund its work in the Cities of Karachi and Hyderabad.

I would say they have a realistic outlook and in order to survive for a smaller party, you cannot fault them for supporting leadership which is supportive of them.

I doubt NS would ever say anything bad about Gen Zia's aamriat. He was part and parcel of that. So why the exception here?

Musharaf like any govt did some good work, but the results of it evaporated as soon as he left
Govt is remembered for some mega project which benefit coming generations and I dont see anything as such from Musharaf era, unless you count some roads as development there are none.

That is because in Pakistan, credit is never given where it is due. The reason Pakistan does not progress is because the clock is reset every time a new government comes in even if the work of the predecessor was something worth sticking to.

Doubling up of the GDP is not something you can do by building roads. An atmosphere was created which was conducive to FDI and increasing Pakistan's exports. PPP govt and now the PML govt are nowhere close to achieving any of this. Lets admit the reality and understand the upsides instead of constantly putting down all that is good due to personal biases. Ayub Khan did great work in setting Pakistan on the right footing. He messed up in other areas, but where he did work, it should be recognized. The problem here is that out of sheer bias, credit due is also not given to Musharraf.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Musharaf is the reason why country is still secured single handedly he guided us thru the worse of times

 

[xyxmt]

I too wonder why you are surprised by MQM's support for Musharraf? Swatis and the inhabitants of Dir also support Musharraf for the work he was able to get done in their respective areas. If the MQM and others did not support Musharraf, it would be a case of them becoming ingrates given the support they received through massive infusion of budget for their developmental work and it shows.

MQM has never been against Army takeovers given that it was created and established through another Army takeover (Zia's) to counterbalance MRD and eliminate PPP's grip on Karachi. MQM is a local/provincial party and worries about who will fund its work in the Cities of Karachi and Hyderabad.

I would say they have a realistic outlook and in order to survive for a smaller party, you cannot fault them for supporting leadership which is supportive of them.

I doubt NS would ever say anything bad about Gen Zia's aamriat. He was part and parcel of that. So why the exception here?


That is because in Pakistan, credit is never given where it is due. The reason Pakistan does not progress is because the clock is reset every time a new government comes in even if the work of the predecessor was something worth sticking to.

Doubling up of the GDP is not something you can do by building roads. An atmosphere was created which was conducive to FDI and increasing Pakistan's exports. PPP govt and now the PML govt are nowhere close to achieving any of this. Lets admit the reality and understand the upsides instead of constantly putting down all that is good due to personal biases. Ayub Khan did great work in setting Pakistan on the right footing. He messed up in other areas, but where he did work, it should be recognized. The problem here is that out of sheer bias, credit due is also not given to Musharraf.

I have no personal bias when it comes to anything happening in Pakistan. I as an outsider; who has links with Pakistan and the one who is sympathetic to it and wants it developed and become a progressive nation; only comments on what I see on the ground. Doubling up the GDP is just paper work which PMLN govt can include some more sectors in the paper work and increase GDP also but that wont change anything on the ground. True his govt issued some wireless licenses and some TV channels but that was just the need of the time, something that happened in all third world countries in that period of time, example Afghanistan.

I see Pakistan changed every 5 or so years when I visit, i see new roads I see new shopping plaza, remittance has gone up many fold in last 10 to 15 years which means some segment of society do have some spending money and they can afford nicer brands...but all that is just something that happens with time and no one can claim that it was due to PPP govt or PMLN or Musharaf.

It seems Pakistani public have lowered their expectation so much that a few fly overs can win a govt good credit or bad credit in public eyes. you need to aim for the Sky because if all you ask for is fly overs then you will be flown over and over.

I got my school education from govt schools in Karachi, I can assure you no private school today can match the quality of education we got in 70s and 80s, we had nice furnitures, we had quality and educated teachers. whats is the situation of govt schools now, everything is deteriorating everything is going downhill, we didnt know what load shedding is, we used to pray for for power break down so all we kids can play outside at night, we had beautiful parks blooming with flower beds....yes in Nazimabad Karachi....that was in 80s

30 years later this country is totally f'ed up, of those 30 years Musharaf had 10
now you do the math...it seems like if someone doesnt do bad he is a good man well then Musharaf was a good man, hope you guys can find some more