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Moscow Diary: Cold War echoes !

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FROM THE WINDOW OF MY POLITICAL ANALYTICAL MIND ,RESEARCH & PASSION I SENSE A TROUBLED SNORING FREEZES IN THE ICE OF AMBITION BENEATH WHICH FLOWS A VOLCANO FILLED WITH A BLEND OF REVENGE & AMBITION CONTAINING THE PRECIOUS OF LIFE (FROM OUR ERA'S PERSPECTIVE IT IS CALLED THE QUEST FOR ENERGY YES BORGZA IS TREMBLED AGAIN ENERGY I ASK AGAIN FROM THE RUINS OF THE AFGHAN-RUSSIAN WAR THE 91 DEBACLE SENSING THE RISE OF THE PASSIONATE ESSENCE OF MY SOCIALISTIC MYSTIC IS WHAT CAUGHT ME WITH A BLEND OF HAPPINESS & HOPE I ASK ONE MORE TIME TO MY THINKING GIVING THE ANSWER SAYS MY TROUBLED MIND FROM WHICH COMES THAT PUSH THAT SWEET FORCE KNOWN AS POWER!!!!! STARLET-ED I JUMP FROM MY OBSERVATION TO MY CONCLUSION & AT A STAGE OF THE TREMBLE OF MY DESK I CAN SMELL ECHOS OF THE COLD WAR ERA SOMEWHERE THE CLAW,S OF THE RUSSIAN BEAR HAS FINALLY WOKEN UP FROM ITS SLUMBER !!!



Moscow Diary: Cold War echoes Garamond
There is a new chill in Russia's relations with the West, the BBC's James Rodgers reports from Moscow. He also considers whether the Kremlin's tough stance towards political opponents may be backfiring. His diary is published fortnightly.
A NEW COLD WAR?


"If the move towards our border continues, it will require measures of a military character," said the official, before going on to raise the prospect of a new arms race between Moscow and Washington.


We're not there yet. But if Russian rhetoric is strong off-the-record, it's pretty blunt in public too.
"We would like to hope, though I'm not optimistic, that in Washington politicians will pay attention to our concerns," Igor Ivanov, the Secretary of Russia's Security Council, said last week.

He was referring to Russian worries about US plans for a missile defence system to be sited in Poland and the Czech Republic. The United States sent Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Moscow to make Washington's case, and listen to the Kremlin's objections.

It's likely to be part of a long process. Nobody in Moscow seems to think that any good is likely to come of the new system. Despite Washington's contentions to the contrary, Russia is still concerned that the missile shield could represent a threat to its security.

Even if there hasn't been a return to the Cold War, or a new arms race, there is a sense of frustration with the United States which has its roots in the 1990s, and the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Nato's decision to take in countries of the former Soviet bloc, and even of the former Soviet Union, left many Russians feeling cheated. Many people here see Nato as a Cold War-era institution which should have ceased to exist once the stand-off ended.

Moscow says its interests should be understood. Many here clearly feel that Washington isn't listening.

No-one in Russia expects an immediate confrontation. The Cold War belonged to different times. Two ideological adversaries faced off, backed by massive military force. Today, that ideological rivalry has gone. But the two foes who became friends - in name at least - during the 1990s are now looking at each other in a different, harsher, light.

As the official I quoted at the beginning rather sarcastically put it: "In the Cold War, we had mutual understanding and mutual respect. Now we're experiencing the disadvantages of being an ally and a partner."

ANOTHER COUNTRY?

It's one of the ongoing challenges of foreign reporting. You get to know a country which isn't your own, and you write about it. You always have to try, to some extent, to look at it through the eyes of the people you are reporting to: never allowing your familiarity either to breed contempt, or lead you to adopt unquestioningly the conventional wisdom of the country you're living in.


You always have to ask yourself why people should care - what constitutes a real story?
When 3,000 people turn out in central Moscow for a protest march, it doesn't necessarily pass the test.

When thousands of riot police patrol the streets of the Russian capital, it does.

The former world chess champion turned political activist, Garry Kasparov, has landed himself in trouble with Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) - the main successor to the Soviet-era secret police, the KGB.

His interrogation on Friday, like the demonstration he organised in Moscow the weekend before, guaranteed press interest in his protest against President Putin.

The huge deployment of security forces to prevent the "March of the Dissenters" from going guaranteed the Kremlin's critics much wider media coverage than they could otherwise have dreamed of.

Mr Kasparov was one of the march's organisers. Two days before it was due to take place, he had expressed the hope that 5-7,000 people would turn out. The coalition he has put together, "Another Russia", draws on groups from across the political spectrum.

The movement is still finding its feet. Given the security forces' huge presence, it's reasonable to accept activists' claims that some people were prevented from getting there, or too scared to try. Nevertheless, 5-7,000 people in a city of 10 million, and a country of almost 150 million, hardly constitutes critical mass.

What are the authorities here so afraid of?


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Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6587579.stm

Published: 2007/04/24 11:25:15 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
.
Russia threatens veto over Kosovo
Russia has threatened to veto in the UN Security Council a plan to give Kosovo a form of supervised independence, Russian news agencies have reported.
Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Titov said the proposals would "not get through" the council without the support of both Kosovo and Serbia.

Mr Titov said he believed the threat of a veto would "stimulate the sides to find a mutually acceptable mechanism".

Kosovo has been administered by the UN since 1999, but remains part of Serbia.

The UN took over control of the territory following a Nato bombing campaign in 1999 targeting Serb forces.

Nato intervened to halt a violent crackdown by Serbia against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, some of whom had taken up arms.

Russian riposte

At the end of March this year, the UN special envoy for Kosovo, Martti Ahtisaari, unveiled a blueprint that would give Kosovo internationally supervised independence for an initial period.

At the same time, the proposals envisage extensive self-government for Kosovo's Serb-inhabited municipalities and continuing links between them and Belgrade.


Serbia has rejected the UN plan, but it has been broadly accepted by Kosovo Albanians.

The European Union and US have given their backing, with Washington suggesting last week that it would recognise Kosovo's independence even if Russia vetoed the proposal in the UN Security Council.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded by warning that "unilaterally imposing any solution to the Kosovo problem is unacceptable".

Mr Lavrov's deputy reiterated Russia's stance to reporters this week, saying that Belgrade had to agree to any plan.

"We have said that we will not support a solution that is not supported by both sides," the Interfax news agency quoted Mr Titov as saying.

"A decision based on Martti Ahtisaari's draft will not get through the UN Security Council," he said.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6587497.stm

Published: 2007/04/24 11:26:15 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
.

Russia warns against Kosovo split
Russia has warned against any unilateral attempt to recognise the independence of Kosovo, in an apparent riposte to the United States.
The warning came from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, following talks with Serbian officials in Belgrade.

Kosovo remains legally part of Serbia, but a UN blueprint for the province envisages a form of internationally supervised independence.

A senior US official has said the US considers independence the only option.

Speaking on Tuesday, US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns suggested that Washington may recognise Kosovo's split from Serbia, even if Russia vetoed the UN plan in the UN Security Council.

But Mr Lavrov insisted on Thursday that "any solution to the Kosovo issue must be acceptable to both Belgrade and [the Kosovo capital] Pristina".

He added that "unilaterally imposing any solution to the Kosovo problem is unacceptable".

UN blueprint

The US and European Union have given their backing to a comprehensive set of proposals drawn up by the UN's special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, after Serb and Kosovo Albanian negotiators failed to reach agreement on Kosovo's future.


Mr Ahtisaari's blueprint gives Kosovo the independence its overwhelmingly ethnic Albanian population has been demanding since the break-up of the old Yugoslavia at the beginning of the 1990s.
At the same time, the proposals envisage extensive self-government for Kosovo's Serb-inhabited municipalities and continuing links between them and Belgrade.

Serbia, for its part, has rejected the Ahtisaari proposals.

The UN took over control of Kosovo following a Nato bombing campaign in 1999 targeting Serb forces. Nato intervened to halt a violent crackdown by Serb forces against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, some of whom had taken up arms.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6571599.stm

Published: 2007/04/19 12:38:11 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
.
A new Cold War with Russia
November 26, 2006 10:01 AM
W Joseph Stroup believes we are headed to a new Cold War. It may be triggered when Russia attacks the West's Achilles' heel (part II: Russia tips the balance) and a Russian oil grab 'puts western supplies at risk'.
posted by stbalbach (39 comments total)


I was actually thinking about this just a day or two ago. Russia's been getting more odd all the time, recently. I'm not sure what anyone can do about it, though.
posted by blacklite at 10:12 AM on November 26



Any hostile takeovers like that could be blocked with relative ease, either through anti-trust regulators at the DOJ's Antitrust Division or straight up legislation. I would not be suprised if oil mergers can be straight up blocked for national security reasons.

Let's remember that Russia is a weak power. They have spent the last eighty years going through a series of population shocks which have left them incredibly weakened. The economy is incredibly weakened by corruption and the very oil companies of which Mr. Stroup speaks are dependent on Western capital for improvements and investment.

His stuff on the Chinese is more on the mark. They do pose a long-term strategic issue for the United States. We will have to decide what the best way to deal with thier rise to global prominence will be.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:12 AM on November 26



Any hostile takeovers like that could be blocked with relative ease, either through anti-trust regulators at the DOJ's Antitrust Division or straight up legislation.

That's not how. This is how.
posted by Kwantsar at 10:23 AM on November 26



So, should I go ahead and get the second Hummer H2 for the wife or not?
posted by well_balanced at 10:28 AM on November 26



And here it is. The Exon-Florio provision of the Defense Production Act of 1988 provides that such mergers can be blocked. I can't find the codification, as the GPO Access website indicates that title 50 hasn't been positively codified, but here's a report. I understand the positive codification is at 50 U.S.C. Appendix 2170(a)
posted by Ironmouth at 10:32 AM on November 26



What Kwantsar said, but with a bit more detail, on preview.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:33 AM on November 26



Motion in the ocean
His air hose broke
Lots of trouble
Lots of bubble
He was in a jam
S'in a giant clam
posted by Ironmouth at 10:36 AM on November 26



crap, wrong thread. Back to crustaceaon sex art thread.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:37 AM on November 26



and China sits idly by, grabbing more and more of oil in Africa and dealing with ME countries? If there is a new counter-US world, it will be via China, which has miliary and resources and manpower etc to offset US and West...Russia will be a player but not a big one. Russia has great oil resources but consumes 50% of it whereas other countries export most of what they have.

Article assumes the US will always be reliant on oil as we now get it, yet there are growing indications of new source and newer methods coming available to take burden off ME imports
posted by Postroad at 10:39 AM on November 26



yet there are growing indications of new source and newer methods coming available to take burden off ME imports

The sooner the better, yet let's not forget that the key to dependency reduction is not increasing the methods to obtain, it is reducing the asbsolute quantity.
posted by elpapacito at 11:01 AM on November 26



Russia (along with France) was quite displeased with us moving in & displacing their business relationships with the former Iraq state. It's weird how this critical piece of the puzzle was entirely ignored by the mass media.

from the article:

"[Russia is] insidiously working to undermine its US-centric nature and slanting it toward serving first and foremost the energy-security needs and the geopolitical aspirations of the rising East."

oooh those bad men! How dare they put the slant on what we have already assiduously skewed.
posted by Heywood Mogroot at 11:40 AM on November 26



Why would I think it a bad thing if the US lost its "top superpower position"?
posted by A189Nut at 12:08 PM on November 26



About time! Bond needs some decent villians to fight.
posted by Kudos at 12:29 PM on November 26



This article seems to delude itself on having a unique perspective. Quotes I find odd:

"Too many persons have become captive to thinking merely in terms of of black and white - the US destroys Russia and/or China, or conversely, they destroy the US."


"The reader should avoid confining his/her thinking only to the overly rigid conventional concept of the boxing match, that is, a direct head-to-head contest between two opponents who are nearly equally matched to each other in size and power..."

I guess I'll find more as I read on, but really, who does the writer hang out with?
posted by Anything at 12:32 PM on November 26



Why would I think it a bad thing if the US lost its "top superpower position"?

Well, there's no denying that the american standard of living is significantly derived from how well our Power Capitalists have screwed over the rest of the world over the past 100-odd years, tho the L-Curve of wealth distribution in the US does make this assertion somewhat untenable I guess.
posted by Heywood Mogroot at 12:38 PM on November 26



Anything: It's a weakness of contrarianism to overstate the inflexibility of conventional wisdom. To the contrary, I have found that conventional wisdom is infinitely adjustable to new conditions. It just isn't very useful for making predictions -- for the same reason.

In any case, I think this overstates the desire of either China or Russia to exercise strategic reach anymore. Both countries have shown themselves quite canny at using soft power in recent years. Largely out of necessity, to be sure, but nevertheless developing a skill set.

China's economic dependence on the US (and vice versa) argues against any body checks. A trade embargo would be disastrous for both countries. It's more likely by far that any Chinese moves along these lines would be in the form of increasing interdependence, similar to the Dubai Ports World deal.

Russia, too, has a stronger interest in US dominance than at first blush. The US Navy's control of the seas and regional threat (regardless of Iraq &c.) is valuable to Russian interests. The Iraq switcheroo was a relic of an older era of power blocs. Russia today is far more likely to work below the radar of US military power and inside or beside multinationals.

Of course, anything can go tits up -- but I think my scenario is more realistic and more in line with reasonable-term planning options.
posted by dhartung at 1:23 PM on November 26



It's not just the US - Ottawa red-flags foreign (read: Chinese) takeovers.
posted by loquax at 1:26 PM on November 26



Those damn commie ruskies! Red Dawn, I say, Red Dawn!
posted by qvantamon at 1:29 PM on November 26



The Exon-Florio provision was specifically addressing the CNOOC/Unocal (now Chevron) deal. The Committee on Foreign Investment monitors acquisitions of US companies by non-US entities. How would this have any effect on, say, a merger or takeover of Shell (a Dutch company) or BP (a British company) by Middle Eastern, Russian, or Chinese entities?
posted by Houstonian at 1:47 PM on November 26



This guy is borderline illiterate. His web-site is the geopolitical equivalent of Time Cube.
posted by mr. strange at 1:48 PM on November 26



mr. strange is correct. crackpotfilter is in full effect.
posted by facetious at 1:55 PM on November 26



This guy is borderline illiterate. His web-site is the geopolitical equivalent of Time Cube.
posted by mr. strange at 1:48 PM PST

And we should believe YOUR position because?
posted by rough ashlar at 2:07 PM on November 26



But... but... he's got a self published book!

Russia going crazy while maintaining a stranglehold on Europe's oil supply: Very serious

W Joseph Stroup: not.
posted by Artw at 3:40 PM on November 26



Though in polish he's a amerykański analityk procesów geopolitycznych, which is quite cool.
posted by Artw at 4:13 PM on November 26



This guy is borderline illiterate. His web-site is the geopolitical equivalent of Time Cube.

Thank you. This guy's a complete jagoff; according to his editorial statement his mission is "to tell the whole economic and geopolitical truth, no matter how unpopular, no matter how painful," and then he drops such insight turds as "Steadily rising East-West tensions, the ever-more divergent interests between East and West," as if talking about a big monolithic "East" is even sensical.

Other clues that this guy is captain cukoo-bananas: the "my amateur web-design friend made this for me" website; the prominent copyright notice and "all rights reserved" statement; total lack of CV or other indicia of qualifications; the fact that he sells "Insightful Hi-Res Geopolitical Posters" alongside his profound commentary; his conviction that some subtle conspiracy underlies all other media but he is immune; and finally, his hifalutin "The-reader-should-kindly-remember" tone, as if he's the narrator in a freakin' Jane Austen novel. Totally rest of the web.
posted by rkent at 4:28 PM on November 26



First one with tanks in Belguim wins!
posted by blue_beetle at 4:44 PM on November 26



He was busted, for me, with this gem from the first article:


Other currencies continue to chip away at dollar dominance while the enormous reserves of the rising East are progressively but rapidly re-balanced out of the dollar.

Progressively but rapidly?

As Andy Rooney said to Borat: "What's your FIRST language?"
posted by rokusan at 5:27 PM on November 26



rkent, what about the commentators from other people who support or suggest similar things he is saying (see third and fith links, you'll need to read them). The idea of resource wars centered on Central Asia is well known and acceptable, see for example the excellent Resource Wars. It seems like your attacking the person and his web site design, and not the ideas he has presented. Obviously any forward looking statement should be taken with a grain of salt from anyone, but this is not exactly Time Cube material.
posted by stbalbach at 5:31 PM on November 26



Well, sure, it's plausible -- and hey, Asia Times published him. But then I don't believe half the stuff Spengler says, either. This guy seems to have no existence outside of his own site, which goes by the self-important but not widely cited "Global Events" magazine, Asia Times, and a handful of "invest in gold before the crash" websites and various lefty blogs which quote him. No Google Books or A9 hits. He doesn't seem to have any breadth, either -- it's all about this East-West Cold War stuff. You won't catch him commenting on the coup in Thailand or the elections in Congo unless he can tie it to his unified field doomsday theory.
posted by dhartung at 6:32 PM on November 26



If a man with an internet site says this is true, well, what more proof do we need?

But the potentially disastrous consequences of rising Chinese and Russian power cannot be overstated. What could possibly be worse than the US being hindered from liberating countries for their WMD programs and giving them peace and democracy as in Iraq?
posted by sien at 7:54 PM on November 26



What could possibly be worse than the US being hindered from liberating countries for their WMD programs and giving them peace and democracy as in Iraq?

Nothing except for Russia and China doing it instead.
posted by loquax at 7:58 PM on November 26



His book cover is interesting considering this one's.

A former government adviser has warned it is "only a matter of time" before BP or Shell faces a bid from a Russian state-owned group such as Gazprom which could threaten western oil supplies.

Er...since the 'majors' only control 5% of the world's oil, color me unimpressed. Or mauve. Whatever.

Andy Rooney talked to Borat? Sweet!
posted by A dead Quaker at 8:22 PM on November 26



But would China or the Russians carry on in a similar way?

How many aircraft carriers do the Russians have? Or the Chinese? What condition are they in? What capability do China or Russia have for launching an invasion of a country on the other side of the world?

China's defence budget is $65B. Russias is $50B. So, each spends about one tenth the amount that the US does.

It's fine if US politicians want to send the US bankrupt by spending on the military, but being asked to believe in the bogus threats that they cook up is a bit too much.
posted by sien at 9:09 PM on November 26



The funny thing about Stroupe is that he projects something that a lot of people who make policy believe: the US is top dog and there is an up-and-coming Enemy that, if left unchecked, will threaten our well-being if not our very existence. Thus we must Take Action or be Doomed. It reminds one of Marcus Cato showing up in the senate and declaring at every opportunity Carthago delenda est!

For Stroupe it is Russia, for others it is China, or would-be "Islamic Caliphate."
posted by moonbiter at 10:14 PM on November 26



Well, sure, it's plausible -- and hey, Asia Times published him.

i don't think he's a kook, i just think he may be a decade or two early in what he's predicting ... and the real power of the east isn't going to be in direct conflict, but in having a veto over what the u s wants to do in asia

this isn't a matter of policy, it's a matter of logistics

But then I don't believe half the stuff Spengler says, either.

"spengler" is interesting, though ... there aren't too many people around who see the fall of the prussian empire in ww1 as a bad thing ... (wish i could find the article he said that in)
posted by pyramid termite at 2:23 AM on November 27



If the US is Colossus....that makes Russia....Magneto then?

“To rock the US colossus forcefully out of its position of global dominance and credibly threaten to inflict economic and geopolitical "catastrophe" on the West,”

Hello Murmaaaansk! Are you ready to ROCK!?

“Carthago delenda est!’

Agreed. Quite similar.
posted by Smedleyman at 3:12 PM on November 27



But would China or the Russians carry on in a similar way?

I certainly can't answer that. Ask the Tibetans, the Afghans, Chechans, Hungarians, Czechs, Poles, Taiwanese, South Koreans or the Vietnamese.
posted by loquax at 4:35 PM on November 27



From the article:
Odell warned that at any time Russian and Chinese state-owned oil companies, backed by certain rich members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries who are closely aligned with the two, could make hostile takeover bids for key Western oil majors such as BP-Shell, ExxonMobil and/or Chevron, thereby gutting what little remains of the Western oil majors' control over the global markets and thereby further threatening US access to strategic resources.

IANAL, but I'd thought that the President can block foreign aquisition of U.S. corporations under the Exon-Florio provision. This smells like run-of-the-mill geopolitical gasbaggery to me.
posted by gsteff at 6:11 PM on November 27





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The New Cold War
We're in a "war of civilizations" – and not just against Islam
by Justin Raimondo
The U.S. effort to export "democracy" to Ukraine has some skeptics of interventionism baffled and confused. A seeming throwback to the Soviet era, Leonid Kuchma, and his chosen heir, ward-heeler Viktor Yanukovich, were widely perceived as having stolen the election, and the Ukrainian Supreme Court, supposedly a tool of the regime, agreed. While one may argue about which side engaged in election fraud, and to what extent, in any case the Yanukovich crowd is closer to the Sopranos than the Boy Scouts, and anything would seem to be an improvement. Hundreds of thousands of orange-clad protesters seem to think so. But the view from Kiev is quite different from that of Washington, where the Ukrainian divide is depicted in more realistic terms: as the latest front in a geopolitical struggle for power.

Listen to neoconservative columnist Charles Krauthammer, who writes with eye-watering clarity about the hypocrisy and double standards employed by Western liberal cheerleaders for Yushchenko who question the bona fides of the U.S. effort to implant "democracy" in Iraq:

"Zbigniew Brzezinski, a fierce opponent of the Bush administration's democracy project in Iraq, writes passionately about the importance of democracy in Ukraine and how, by example, it might have a domino effect, spreading democracy to neighboring Russia. Yet when George Bush and Tony Blair make a similar argument about the salutary effect of establishing a democracy in the Middle East – and we might indeed have the first truly free election in the Middle East within two months if we persevere – 'realist' critics dismiss it as terminally naive."

The conflict dividing Ukraine, Krauthammer writes, is "civilizational" war, with an evil authoritarian Russia on one side and the angels of the West on the other:

"So let us all join hands in praise of the young people braving the cold in the streets of Kiev. But then tell me why there is such silence about the Iraqis, young and old, braving bullets and bombs, organizing electorate lists and negotiating coalitions even as we speak. Where is it written: Only in Ukraine?"

Critics of Western intervention in Iraq questioned the democratic-liberal bona fides of an "opposition" headed by an embezzler with a deserved reputation as a ruthless opportunist, whose U.S.-funded Iraqi National Congress fed our intelligence agencies – and the American media – a steady diet of lies about nonexistent Iraqi "weapons of mass destruction." But their skepticism evaporates like dew in the morning sun when it comes to those two dubious vessels of Ukrainian "democracy," former prime minister and head of the central bank Viktor Yushchenko and oligarch Yulia Timoshenko (his sidekick and probable prime minister in a "reform" government).

Yushchenko, as head of the National Bank of the Ukraine (NBU), presided over an unprecedented case of fraud, which enriched certain oligarchs and especially the firebrand Timoshenko and her faction, who control the western part of the country: their power is centered in the energy monopoly that is the domain of the "gas princess," as Timoshenko is popularly known. Remember that Chalabi, too, was a banker, but with this difference: while the Ali Baba of the neocons stole millions, not only from the Jordanian Petra Bank but also from U.S. taxpayers, and used it to benefit himself directly, scandal swirls around Yushchenko, but never actually touches him personally. He is seen as a "reformer" because he never enriched himself, only his cronies and political supporters.

Timoshenko's patron, the embezzler Pavlo Lazarenko – who, with the complicity of the NBU, stole a good portion of the International Monetary Fund bailout money and laundered it in the West – eventually had to flee the country, and was indicted and jailed in the U.S.

Yushchenko's Chalabi-esque tendency to spin some very tall tales is evidenced in his insistence that he was poisoned by some sinister conspiracy involving the pro-Yanukovich forces – darkly implying the KGB did it. This story has been trumpeted from here to Kingdom Come by the pro-Yushchenko Western media, but its ubiquity is reminiscent of the sort of open-mouthed credulity that accompanied Chalabi's lies about Iraqi WMD: as Gertrude Stein said of Oakland, California, "There is no there there." The New York Times ran a story completely denying Yushchenko's contention, and then followed up with a more sympathetic but still skeptical and very revealing account:

"The candidate refused a biopsy of his face because he did not want to campaign with stitches. But dioxin and related toxins are detectable in the body years after exposure. [Yushchenko press secretary Irina] Gerashchenko said such tests had still not been performed."

Okay, so let's see if we get this straight: He was willing to campaign with a disfigured face and a catheter installed in his back to keep him from crying out in pain – oh, but no stitches! How plausible is that? The incision required for a biopsy hardly amounts to major surgery. More like a pinprick to be sure.

A biopsy would reveal whether or not the candidate had contracted a rare but devastating auto-immune dysfunction, such as scleromyxedema, which produces disfigurement identical to Yushchenko's unsightly symptoms. It would also detect the presence of toxins, such as dioxin, in the skin – and prove, or debunk, the "poisoning" scenario once and for all.

I wonder why Yushchenko refused to undergo this simple and painless procedure. What I don't wonder about is the truth of what Krauthammer has to say about the motivations of the Europeans in pushing for "regime change" in Ukraine:

"This is about Russia first, democracy only second. This Ukrainian episode is a brief, almost nostalgic throwback to the Cold War. Russia is trying to hang on to the last remnants of its empire. The West wants to finish the job begun with the fall of the Berlin Wall and continue Europe's march to the east."

This is absolutely true, but the push for the "liberation" of Ukraine isn't just a case of EU expansionism, the first real act of aggression on the part of an emerging imperialist power: it is also part of America's looming confrontation with Moscow.

It isn't just the Islamic world that the promoters of a "war of civilizations" are targeting: Russia, too, is in the sights of the War Party, as I have pointed out in this space before. As the epicenter of the Orthodox Christian Slavic civilization, Russia finds itself under attack on several fronts: not only in the Ukraine but also in Chechnya, where American neoconservatives have taken up the cause of al-Qaeda-linked "freedom fighters" and denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin as an aspiring "dictator."

The West turned against Putin the moment he moved against the Russian "oligarchs" – former Communist party insiders who used their influence in the waning Soviet order to loot "collectively-owned" state industries, including major industrial concerns and infrastructure, stripping the place bare and secreting their ill-gotten gains abroad. That this was done under the rubric of "privatization" defeated the idea of free market liberalism in Russia, and paved the way for the rise of Putin, who was lifted up into the seat of power on the strength of a wave of resentment against the oligarchs' massive theft.

The oligarchs, however, who had by this time legitimized their fortunes by laundering the stolen money through investment in new enterprises, fought back, and were soon joined by their Western allies and paid publicity agents.

In the West, the reaction to Putin's new assertiveness was immediate: a campaign of the sort that preceded the demonization and destruction of Saddam Hussein and Manuel Noriega immediately commenced in the Western media, with neoconservatives of Krauthammer's ilk leading the charge. George W. Bush echoed their war cries, albeit faintly, when he voiced his "concerns" about the future of "democracy" in Russia: simultaneously, an open "letter of the 100" to Putin was sponsored by the Project for a New American Century and was signed by an agglomeration of the aggrieved, from militant neocons to assorted "progressives" (i.e. warmongers of a leftish hue). The letter basically condemned Putin and called for a new cold war confrontation with the "threat" to democracy emanating from the Kremlin. Anne Applebaum enunciated the theme of this hate campaign when she declared that an "Iron Curtain" had descended across Europe's Eastern frontiers:

"All of these places do, it is true, seem obscure and faraway to Americans. But so did the events 60 years ago in Poland, at least until it became clear that they were part of a pattern: 1946 was also the year that Winston Churchill gave his celebrated speech describing the 'iron curtain' that had descended across Europe, and predicting the onset of the Cold War. Looking back, we may also one day see 2004 as the year when a new iron curtain descended across Europe, dividing the continent not through the center of Germany but along the eastern Polish border."

One can't recall that Putin or his allies in Ukraine, Belarus, and environs have constructed a new version of the Berlin Wall: the citizens of these countries, and also Russians, are free to leave, and Ukrainians will do so in droves if and when their planned absorption into the EU is accomplished. Where is the Ukrainian gulag – or the Russian one, for that matter? The Cold War II crowd is reduced to spinning yarns about the KGB "poisoning" of their Ukrainian sock puppet.

What is the purpose of declaring that a new "iron curtain" has descended if not to conjure the specter of a cold war-style military confrontation with the remnants of the former Soviet Union – a conflict that is coming if we persist in getting up in Putin's face in his own backyard?

Imagine if China and, say, France or Canada demanded that the Mexican election be redone so that their preferred candidate could win. There is consternation in the Kremlin, and glee from the neocons, who see Russia (and China) as the main obstacles to American global hegemony. Krauthammer, the Clausewitz and the Napoleon of the armchair generals, can't help but gloat:

"You almost have to feel sorry for the Russians. (I stress almost.) In the course of one generation, they have lost one of the greatest empires in history: first their Third World dependencies, stretching at one point from Nicaragua to Angola to Indochina; then their East European outer empire, now swallowed by NATO and the European Union; and then their inner empire of Soviet republics.

"The Muslim '-stans' are slowly drifting out of reach. The Baltic republics are already in NATO. The Transcaucasian region is unstable and bloody. All Russia has left are the Slavic republics. Belarus is effectively a Russian colony. But the great prize is Ukraine, for reasons of strategy (Crimea), history (Kiev is considered by Russians to be the cradle of Slavic civilization) and identity (the eastern part is Russian Orthodox and Russian-speaking)."

This is great news for those civilizational warriors who want to take on Eastern Orthodoxy, as well as Islam, in a bid to establish American global supremacy. It is bad news for those who dread the consequences of a foreign policy that has so far succeeded only in creating an endless supply of fresh enemies worldwide. Putin's "bluff was called," jeers Krauthammer, and

"He does not have the power to do to Ukraine what his Soviet predecessors did to Hungary and Czechoslovakia during the Cold War. Hence the clash of civilizations over Ukraine and, to some extent, within Ukraine: the authoritarian East vs. the democratic West."

Likening the Commonwealth of Independent States – conjured by the Russians as a free trade zone and nexus of economic cooperation – to the Warsaw Pact is exactly the opposite of the truth: the model that fits the old Warsaw mold is the European Union, which Ukraine will be annexed to if Yushchenko and his crowd have their way. The EU is not only committed to a form of socialism, albeit a somewhat watered down version, it is also very difficult to leave the EU, if not next to impossible. As Euabc.com correctly points out:

"At present, a country can only leave the EU after a unanimous decision (or by breaching EU law). The EU Constitution has a clause allowing Member States to leave after negotiating an agreement with the EU or on their own accord after two years."

When the Austrians elected a politically incorrect government – in a free and fair election – the EU imposed sanctions, and threatened to do more. Yet now they assume the mantle of militant democrats in the Ukraine.

Looking beyond the easily manipulated orange-clad crowds in the streets, who are understandably for any change as being for the better, the Ukrainian version of the Iraqi National Congress is even more unsavory and ideologically unhinged than Chalabi's crowd ever was. Here is Yulia Timoshenko, the lady oligarch-turned-Robespierre of the Orange Revolution, according to the pro-Yushchenko newspaper, Ukrainska Pravda:

"Timoshenko promised to supply Russia with a similar revolution: 'As soon as our orange revolution has been completed, we'll transfer it to Russia.' Timoshenko said one could see cars with orange ribbons in Moscow even now."

With this Amazonian warrior princess of the Transcaucasus as Ukraine's putative prime minister, is it any wonder that the Russians are worried she'll permit her country to be used as a pawn in a new cold war game?

Putin is right to fear NATO expansion. Perhaps he recalls the assurances of U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and German foreign minister Hans Dietrich Genscher at a high level meeting in Moscow on the subject of German reunification, cited by Russia scholar Susan Eisenhower:

"[Genscher] promoted a 'no expansion of NATO' concept, an idea that Baker, too, had advanced. It was at the February meeting that the key words were spoken, words that are still a source of debate. If a unified Germany was anchored in NATO, Secretary Baker said to Gorbachev, 'NATO's jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward.'

"Apparently, Gorbachev was receptive to that assurance and emphasized that 'any extension of the zone of NATO is unacceptable.'

"'I agree,' Baker said.

Oh well. So much for that agreement.

Now that the West is penetrating Ukraine, and talking openly about the inability of Eastern countries – including Russia – to rise to the level of machine politics in Chicago, or Brooklyn, New York, Putin has reason to regret Gorbachev's decision, or at least remember it in anger: Georgia, too, is slated for NATO membership, and the rebellious Russian-speaking semi-autonomous republics, such as Abkhazia, and Ossetia, are trouble spots just begging for NATO intervention – as would the eastern region of Ukraine, which threatens to secede if the Yushchenko forces triumph.

The United States, via the National Endowment for Democracy, has poured millions into the funding, training, and logistics of the Yushchenko organization that has managed to shut down Kiev and hold the government hostage – and they expect their investment to pay off in the military, political, and economic isolation of Russia.

Putin is hated by Western elites, not because he aspires to be a dictator, but because he is defiant in the face of this all-out assault. He destroyed the power of the Russian oligarchs, and aligned himself with the wrong oligarchical faction in Ukraine: Ms. Timoshenko, the former Ukrainian "gas princess," and her allies will profit enormously from an alliance with the West. The Odessa-Brody oil pipeline will start flowing, along with plenty of U.S. government subsidies for this uneconomic project.

The chill winds of a new cold war must be warmed up before they are allowed to develop into a generalized deep freeze. U.S. intervention in Ukraine, of any sort, is impermissible – and ought to be illegal, just as foreign funding of U.S. election campaigns is outlawed. The tragedy of Ukraine's "orange revolution," however, is that some day, when the "liberated" Ukrainians wake up and discover they've been sold a bill of goods, the warranty will have already run out on the merchandise. When those youthful "orange revolutionaries" in the streets – who proclaim the virtues of peace and liberty – discover that they've been tricked into turning their country into a launching pad for NATO military actions in the Caucasus, and beyond – what will they do, then? Probably nothing, as their "revolution" will have long since been declared officially over – and thoroughly betrayed.

http://antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=4120

 
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Russia threatening new cold war over missile defence !!!!



Russia threatening new cold war over missile defence


Kremlin accuses US of deception on east European interceptor bases

Luke Harding in Moscow
Wednesday April 11, 2007
The Guardian


Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has been critical of US foreign policy in recent months. Photograph: Antoine Gyori/Corbis



Russia is preparing its own military response to the US's controversial plans to build a new missile defence system in eastern Europe, according to Kremlin officials, in a move likely to increase fears of a cold war-style arms race.
The Kremlin is considering active counter-measures in response to Washington's decision to base interceptor missiles and radar installations in Poland and the Czech Republic, a move Russia says will change "the world's strategic stability".


The Kremlin has not publicly spelt out its plans. But defence experts said its response is likely to include upgrading its nuclear missile arsenal so that it is harder to shoot down, putting more missiles on mobile launchers, and moving its fleet of nuclear submarines to the north pole, where they are virtually undetectable.
Russia could also bring the new US silos within the range of its Iskander missiles launched potentially from the nearby Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, they add.

In an interview with the Guardian, the Kremlin's chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow felt betrayed by the Pentagon's move. "We were extremely concerned and disappointed. We were never informed in advance about these plans. It brings tremendous change to the strategic balance in Europe, and to the world's strategic stability."

He added: "We feel ourselves deceived. Potentially we will have to create alternatives to this but with low cost and higher efficiency." Any response would be within "existing technologies", he said. As well as military counter-measures, Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, also wanted "dialogue" and "negotiations", he added.

The Bush administration says the bases are designed to shoot down rogue missiles fired by Iran or North Korea. Its proposed system would be helpless against Russia's vast nuclear arsenal, it says.

But this claim has been greeted with widespread incredulity, not just in Russia but also among some of the US's nervous Nato allies. They include Germany, where the Social Democrat leader, Kurt Beck, warned last month that the US and Russia were on the brink of another arms race "on European soil".

Defence experts say there is little doubt that the real target of the shield is Russia. "The geography of the deployment doesn't give any doubt the main targets are Russian and Chinese nuclear forces," General Vladimir Belous, Russia's leading expert on anti-ballistic weaponry, told the Guardian. "The US bases represent a real threat to our strategic nuclear forces."

The threat of a new arms race comes at a time when relations between Russia and the US are at their worst for a decade. In February Mr Putin accused the Bush administration during a speech in Munich of seeking a "world of one master, one sovereign". On Friday Russia's duma, or lower house or parliament, warned that the US's plans could ignite a second cold war. "Such decisions, which are useless in terms of preventing potential or imaginary threats from countries of the middle and far-east, are already bringing about a new split in Europe and unleashing another arms race," the declaration - passed unanimously by Russian MPs - said.

The same day Russia ruled out cooperating with the US over the shield. "Despite certain signals received in recent days from the US side ... I see no political foundation for it," said Sergei Ryabkov, a foreign ministry spokesman. Moscow now had little choice but to take the bases "into account in our strategic planning", he said.

Analysts said there was a common feeling in Russia that the US had reneged on an agreement after the collapse of the Soviet Union to abandon cold war politics. "Cold war thinking has prevailed, especially on the western side," Yevgeny Myasnikov, a senior research scientist at Moscow's Centre for Arms Control, told the Guardian. "Russia has been deeply disappointed by what has happened after 1991. Nato started to expand, and the US started to think it had won the cold war. We had hoped for a partnership. But it didn't happen."

FirstStreetOnline.com

Papers For Ink Jet Output
Professional photo & archival fine art media specially...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,2054142,00.html
 
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In 1980's Russias GDP was 70/80% that of US, today US GDP if 20 times more than Russia.

Cold war? huh?
 
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Russia in defence warning to US
Russia may stop implementing a key defence treaty because of concerns over US plans for a missile shield in Europe, President Vladimir Putin said.
Mr Putin made the threat during his annual address to parliament - which he said would be his last as president.

He also hit out at an influx of foreign money which he said was being used to meddle in Russia's internal affairs.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice dismissed Russian concerns over the missile shield as "ludicrous".

BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says Mr Putin's speech marks a significant raising of diplomatic stakes.

The Russian president suggested that his country should freeze its compliance with the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty - which limits military deployments across the continent - until all Nato countries had ratified it.


Our partners... are using the present situation to boost the presence of military bases and systems close to our borders
Vladimir Putin


The treaty was adapted in 1999 after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, but Nato states have not yet ratified the new version, linking it to the withdrawal of Russian forces from Georgia and Moldova.

Mr Putin accused Nato states of exploiting the situation to increase their military presence near Russia.

He said that the Russian moratorium would continue "until all countries of the world have ratified and started to strictly implement it".

If there was no progress at upcoming talks between Nato and Russia, Russia would "look at the possibility of ceasing our commitments under the CFE treaty", he said.

The US wants to station 10 interceptor missiles in Poland, with radar operations in the Czech Republic - which Russia strongly opposes.

"The Russians have thousands of warheads. The idea that you can somehow stop the Russian strategic nuclear deterrent with a few interceptors just doesn't make sense," said the US secretary of state in Oslo, ahead of the Nato-Russia meeting.

Nato Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that he would seek a further explanation of Russia's position at the talks.

'Meddlers'

Mr Putin also hit out at those who he said were using democracy as a pretext to interfere in politics.

"There is a growing influx of foreign cash used to directly meddle in our domestic affairs," Mr Putin said.

"Not everyone likes the stable, gradual rise of our country," he said. "There are some who are using the democratic ideology to interfere in our internal affairs."

He did not specify those responsible, but in the past Russian authorities have accused the West of funding groups that oppose the government.

He also called for a moment of silence in memory of former President Boris Yeltsin, whom he said had laid the foundations for a changed Russia. He called for a library to be established in Mr Yeltsin's name.

Other highlights included:



praise for Russia's economy, which he said was now one of the 10 largest in the world

a funding boost for state housing, using some of the proceeds from the auction of bankrupt oil giant Yukos
Mr Putin's speech was delayed by a day because of Mr Yeltsin's state funeral.

He reiterated his pledge to step down in March 2008, after serving two terms as president.


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6594379.stm

Published: 2007/04/26 12:23:34 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
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Excerpts: Putin's address
Vladimir Putin has attacked foreign intervention in Russia, the US missile defence plan and called for an increase in domestic oil processing in a defiant final annual address to parliament before he steps down as Russian president in 2008.

ON FOREIGN INTERVENTION



Some want to return to the past to rob the people and the state, to plunder the natural resources and deprive our country of its political and economic independence. The financial flow from abroad is expanding to intervene in our internal affairs.

Democratising slogans are used, but the goal is the same: to gain unilateral advantages and personal benefits, to secure one's own interests. Some people are even using the most dirty techniques, trying to incite interethnic and interconfessional conflicts in our multinational, democratic country. In this regard, I urge you to quickly adopt amendments to legislation that toughen responsibility for extremist activities.


ON OIL


In 2006 Russia was the world's top oil producing country. But in the area of oil processing we are fundamentally lagging behind. The government should draw up a system of measures to stimulate an increase in the processing of raw materials within Russia.

Without infringing the interests of our foreign partners, we should nonetheless think of the development of our own processing base.


ON MISSILE DEFENCE


It is obvious that the United States' plans to deploy a missile defence system in Europe are not exclusively a Russian-American relations problem. To some extent it affects the interests of all European states, including those that are not Nato members This issue deserves, I would even say demands, to be discussed at the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe), in the framework of the organisation's military-political dimension.

It is time to fill the OSCE's activities with real content, to steer the organisation to face the problems that truly concern the peoples of Europe, rather than merely seeking fleas across the former Soviet Union.


ON HIS SUCCESSOR

The next state of the nation address will be given by another head of state ... it is premature for me to declare a political will.


ON BORIS YELTSIN


He considered a direct, open dialogue with people to be exceptionally important. He considered it necessary to present the problems and priorities of state policy for public discussion. He saw in that one of the most important tools for uniting society, tools for real democracy.

The real threat to the security of Russia and its integrity was separatism. In this respect, there was a critical lack of resources to solve the most fundamental, vital problems. But it was precisely in that period - in that difficult period - that the foundation of future changes was laid.


ON THE MILITARY

The re-equipment of units with new and modernised weapons and technology is going according to plan.

An important indicator of the state of the armed forces is the state of the social guarantee system for military personnel and their family members. By 2010, the task to give them permanent housing has to be solved unconditionally.


ON RUSSIA'S ECONOMY

Despite the social and political problems, we built a new life. As a result, the situation in the country - slowly, step by step - began to change for the better. Now, not only have we fully ended the decline of production, we have become one of the ten biggest economies in the world.


ON 2007 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS


The forthcoming election to the State Duma will be based for the first time on the so-called proportional system. This means that only political parties will take part in the election.

I would stress that we have knowingly taken this, in essence revolutionary, step and have seriously democratised the electoral system. We should directly say that previous elections based on the old single-seat system, or single-seat constituencies to be exact, did not prevent influential regional structures from passing their so-called own candidates with the use of administrative resources.

I'm convinced that the new electoral procedure will not only step up the parties' influence over the formation of democratic power, but will also contribute to the growth of rivalry among them. Consequently, it will strengthen and improve the quality of the Russian political system .



ON NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS

In democratic conditions, it is impossible to imagine political processes without the participation of non-governmental associations, without consideration for their views and positions.

The number of non-governmental organisations operating in this country is also growing, as is their number of voluntary members, who perform various socially important functions, and various kinds of socially important work. There are already about eight million of them in Russia. All these are real indicators of an active civil society forming in Russia.


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6595233.stm

Published: 2007/04/26 11:32:53 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
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Echoes of Cold War in missile arguments
By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs correspondent BBC News website



Russian hostility to the American plan to station anti-ballistic missiles and their radar in Poland and the Czech Republic is an indication of the wider unease in relations between Moscow and Washington.

The issue also threatens repercussions in other areas of arms control, with Russia talking of pulling out of its 1987 treaty with the United States banning intermediate range nuclear forces (the INF treaty).


It shows that the effort to solve one problem, the potential threat to the United States from new generations of missiles from countries like North Korea and Iran, is producing a whole new set of diplomatic difficulties.

The result of the confrontation - reflected in other arenas such as trade and economics - is that problems that might have been and in some case actually were solved in the post Cold War euphoria are now producing echoes of the Cold War itself.


Conventional forces treaty

President Putin, in his annual speech to parliament on 26 April, broadened the Russian criticism of the West over defence by declaring that Russia was freezing and might end its commitments to force reductions under the Treaty on Conventional Weapons.

This treaty, originally signed in 1990, was modified in 1999 to take account of the break-up of the Soviet Union. Russia has ratified the modified version but the United States and other Nato countries are linking their ratification to the withdrawal of Russian forces from Moldova and Georgia, a linkage that Russia rejects.

Cold War-style linkage is back in the diplomatic armoury.




Gates mission

In a late effort to patch up their differences, the US Defence Secretary Robert Gates went to Moscow on Monday for what looked like unsuccessful talks with Mr Putin.

Later in the week, Nato foreign ministers will meet the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

The Americans are hoping to base ten interceptor rockets in Poland with accompanying radar in the Czech Republic.

In the absence of a Nato agreement on this system, this is a bilateral matter between the US and the two Nato members.

The system is designed to intercept missiles that might fly over Europe on their way to the United States or be aimed at targets in Europe.


US position

This is how the US Deputy Secretary of Defence Gordon England described the proposed system in a speech in March:

"This European site is about enhancing the defence of the homeland, and providing defences for our forward-deployed forces and our allies, especially against emerging threats from Iran and the Middle East."

"Unfortunately, leaders from the Russian Federation have expressed some reluctance - in remarkably strident language. The United States has been - and will continue to be - transparent with Moscow about missile defence plans.

"The facts should speak for themselves: the systems are not designed to counter - are not capable of countering - Russia's missile capabilities, and in addition, they include no offensive capabilities."


Problems that might have been solved in the post Cold War euphoria are now producing echoes of the Cold War


To try to placate the Russians, the Americans have offered them what Mr England called increased "missile defence cooperation-confidence-building measures like radar data-sharing, and joint missile defence testing."

This, so far at least, has not been enough for Russia. Even though technically the ten missiles in Poland could not have any effect on Russian rockets, Moscow sees the American plan not only as another encroachment of a Nato-related system on its doorstep but as another manifestation of US expansionism.

Putin speech

The Russian attitude was summed up in a strong speech made by President Putin at a conference in Munich in February, attended by Mr Gates.

"Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force - military force - in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts," Mr Putin said.

"We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are, as a matter of fact, coming increasingly closer to one state's legal system. One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way.

"This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this? "

Mr Putin was careful to say that Russia would honour its obligations under strategic arms treaties, the most important of which will limit Russia and US to between 1700 and 2200 deployed warheads by the end of 2012.

However, he hinted that Russia was not happy at the restrictions imposed by the treaty on intermediate range missiles.

"Today many other countries have these missiles, including the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, India, Iran, Pakistan and Israel. Many countries are working on these systems and plan to incorporate them as part of their weapons arsenals. And only the United States and Russia bear the responsibility to not create such weapons systems.

"It is obvious that in these conditions we must think about ensuring our own security."

Russian officials have suggested that if the American anti-missile deployment takes place in Eastern Europe, then Russia might withdraw from the INF treaty.

This sounds to US and Nato officials as an excuse not a reason.

But such linkage is part of the new reality of international relations.

Paul.Reynolds-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6583587.stm

Published: 2007/04/26 13:11:45 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
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CENTER Speaker: Putin, Wladimir W.
Function: President, Russian Federation
Nation/
Organization: Russian Federation


Speech at the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy
02/10/2007


(The speech was held in Russian. Find the English translation below.)


Thank you very much dear Madam Federal Chancellor, Mr Teltschik, ladies and gentlemen!

I am truly grateful to be invited to such a representative conference that has assembled politicians, military officials, entrepreneurs and experts from more than 40 nations.

This conference’s structure allows me to avoid excessive politeness and the need to speak in roundabout, pleasant but empty diplomatic terms. This conference’s format will allow me to say what I really think about international security problems. And if my comments seem unduly polemical, pointed or inexact to our colleagues, then I would ask you not to get angry with me. After all, this is only a conference. And I hope that after the first two or three minutes of my speech Mr Teltschik will not turn on the red light over there.

Therefore. It is well known that international security comprises much more than issues relating to military and political stability. It involves the stability of the global economy, overcoming poverty, economic security and developing a dialogue between civilisations.

This universal, indivisible character of security is expressed as the basic principle that “security for one is security for all”. As Franklin D. Roosevelt said during the first few days that the Second World War was breaking out: “When peace has been broken anywhere, the peace of all countries everywhere is in danger.”

These words remain topical today. Incidentally, the theme of our conference – global crises, global responsibility – exemplifies this.

Only two decades ago the world was ideologically and economically divided and it was the huge strategic potential of two superpowers that ensured global security.

This global stand-off pushed the sharpest economic and social problems to the margins of the international community’s and the world’s agenda. And, just like any war, the Cold War left us with live ammunition, figuratively speaking. I am referring to ideological stereotypes, double standards and other typical aspects of Cold War bloc thinking.

The unipolar world that had been proposed after the Cold War did not take place either.

The history of humanity certainly has gone through unipolar periods and seen aspirations to world supremacy. And what hasn’t happened in world history?

However, what is a unipolar world? However one might embellish this term, at the end of the day it refers to one type of situation, namely one centre of authority, one centre of force, one centre of decision-making.

It is world in which there is one master, one sovereign. And at the end of the day this is pernicious not only for all those within this system, but also for the sovereign itself because it destroys itself from within.

And this certainly has nothing in common with democracy. Because, as you know, democracy is the power of the majority in light of the interests and opinions of the minority.

Incidentally, Russia – we – are constantly being taught about democracy. But for some reason those who teach us do not want to learn themselves.

I consider that the unipolar model is not only unacceptable but also impossible in today’s world. And this is not only because if there was individual leadership in today’s – and precisely in today’s – world, then the military, political and economic resources would not suffice. What is even more important is that the model itself is flawed because at its basis there is and can be no moral foundations for modern civilisation.

Along with this, what is happening in today’s world – and we just started to discuss this – is a tentative to introduce precisely this concept into international affairs, the concept of a unipolar world.

And with which results?

Unilateral and frequently illegitimate actions have not resolved any problems. Moreover, they have caused new human tragedies and created new centres of tension. Judge for yourselves: wars as well as local and regional conflicts have not diminished. Mr Teltschik mentioned this very gently. And no less people perish in these conflicts – even more are dying than before. Significantly more, significantly more!

Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force – military force – in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts. As a result we do not have sufficient strength to find a comprehensive solution to any one of these conflicts. Finding a political settlement also becomes impossible.

We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are, as a matter of fact, coming increasingly closer to one state’s legal system. One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way. This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?

In international relations we increasingly see the desire to resolve a given question according to so-called issues of political expediency, based on the current political climate.

And of course this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasise this – no one feels safe! Because no one can feel that international law is like a stone wall that will protect them. Of course such a policy stimulates an arms race.

The force’s dominance inevitably encourages a number of countries to acquire weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, significantly new threats – though they were also well-known before – have appeared, and today threats such as terrorism have taken on a global character.

I am convinced that we have reached that decisive moment when we must seriously think about the architecture of global security.

And we must proceed by searching for a reasonable balance between the interests of all participants in the international dialogue. Especially since the international landscape is so varied and changes so quickly – changes in light of the dynamic development in a whole number of countries and regions.

Madam Federal Chancellor already mentioned this. The combined GDP measured in purchasing power parity of countries such as India and China is already greater than that of the United States. And a similar calculation with the GDP of the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – surpasses the cumulative GDP of the EU. And according to experts this gap will only increase in the future.

There is no reason to doubt that the economic potential of the new centres of global economic growth will inevitably be converted into political influence and will strengthen multipolarity.

In connection with this the role of multilateral diplomacy is significantly increasing. The need for principles such as openness, transparency and predictability in politics is uncontested and the use of force should be a really exceptional measure, comparable to using the death penalty in the judicial systems of certain states.

However, today we are witnessing the opposite tendency, namely a situation in which countries that forbid the death penalty even for murderers and other, dangerous criminals are airily participating in military operations that are difficult to consider legitimate. And as a matter of fact, these conflicts are killing people – hundreds and thousands of civilians!

But at the same time the question arises of whether we should be indifferent and aloof to various internal conflicts inside countries, to authoritarian regimes, to tyrants, and to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction? As a matter of fact, this was also at the centre of the question that our dear colleague Mr Lieberman asked the Federal Chancellor. If I correctly understood your question (addressing Mr Lieberman), then of course it is a serious one! Can we be indifferent observers in view of what is happening? I will try to answer your question as well: of course not.

But do we have the means to counter these threats? Certainly we do. It is sufficient to look at recent history. Did not our country have a peaceful transition to democracy? Indeed, we witnessed a peaceful transformation of the Soviet regime – a peaceful transformation! And what a regime! With what a number of weapons, including nuclear weapons! Why should we start bombing and shooting now at every available opportunity? Is it the case when without the threat of mutual destruction we do not have enough political culture, respect for democratic values and for the law?

I am convinced that the only mechanism that can make decisions about using military force as a last resort is the Charter of the United Nations. And in connection with this, either I did not understand what our colleague, the Italian Defence Minister, just said or what he said was inexact. In any case, I understood that the use of force can only be legitimate when the decision is taken by NATO, the EU, or the UN. If he really does think so, then we have different points of view. Or I didn’t hear correctly. The use of force can only be considered legitimate if the decision is sanctioned by the UN. And we do not need to substitute NATO or the EU for the UN. When the UN will truly unite the forces of the international community and can really react to events in various countries, when we will leave behind this disdain for international law, then the situation will be able to change. Otherwise the situation will simply result in a dead end, and the number of serious mistakes will be multiplied. Along with this, it is necessary to make sure that international law have a universal character both in the conception and application of its norms.

And one must not forget that democratic political actions necessarily go along with discussion and a laborious decision-making process.

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

The potential danger of the destabilisation of international relations is connected with obvious stagnation in the disarmament issue.

Russia supports the renewal of dialogue on this important question.

It is important to conserve the international legal framework relating to weapons destruction and therefore ensure continuity in the process of reducing nuclear weapons.

Together with the United States of America we agreed to reduce our nuclear strategic missile capabilities to up to 1700-2000 nuclear warheads by 31 December 2012. Russia intends to strictly fulfil the obligations it has taken on. We hope that our partners will also act in a transparent way and will refrain from laying aside a couple of hundred superfluous nuclear warheads for a rainy day. And if today the new American Defence Minister declares that the United States will not hide these superfluous weapons in warehouse or, as one might say, under a pillow or under the blanket, then I suggest that we all rise and greet this declaration standing. It would be a very important declaration.

Russia strictly adheres to and intends to further adhere to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as well as the multilateral supervision regime for missile technologies. The principles incorporated in these documents are universal ones.

In connection with this I would like to recall that in the 1980s the USSR and the United States signed an agreement on destroying a whole range of small- and medium-range missiles but these documents do not have a universal character.

Today many other countries have these missiles, including the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, India, Iran, Pakistan and Israel. Many countries are working on these systems and plan to incorporate them as part of their weapons arsenals. And only the United States and Russia bear the responsibility to not create such weapons systems.

It is obvious that in these conditions we must think about ensuring our own security.

At the same time, it is impossible to sanction the appearance of new, destabilising high-tech weapons. Needless to say it refers to measures to prevent a new area of confrontation, especially in outer space. Star wars is no longer a fantasy – it is a reality. In the middle of the 1980s our American partners were already able to intercept their own satellite.

In Russia’s opinion, the militarisation of outer space could have unpredictable consequences for the international community, and provoke nothing less than the beginning of a nuclear era. And we have come forward more than once with initiatives designed to prevent the use of weapons in outer space.

Today I would like to tell you that we have prepared a project for an agreement on the prevention of deploying weapons in outer space. And in the near future it will be sent to our partners as an official proposal. Let’s work on this together.

Plans to expand certain elements of the anti-missile defence system to Europe cannot help but disturb us. Who needs the next step of what would be, in this case, an inevitable arms race? I deeply doubt that Europeans themselves do.

Missile weapons with a range of about five to eight thousand kilometres that really pose a threat to Europe do not exist in any of the so-called problem countries. And in the near future and prospects, this will not happen and is not even foreseeable. And any hypothetical launch of, for example, a North Korean rocket to American territory through western Europe obviously contradicts the laws of ballistics. As we say in Russia, it would be like using the right hand to reach the left ear.

And here in Germany I cannot help but mention the pitiable condition of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

The Adapted Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe was signed in 1999. It took into account a new geopolitical reality, namely the elimination of the Warsaw bloc. Seven years have passed and only four states have ratified this document, including the Russian Federation.

NATO countries openly declared that they will not ratify this treaty, including the provisions on flank restrictions (on deploying a certain number of armed forces in the flank zones), until Russia removed its military bases from Georgia and Moldova. Our army is leaving Georgia, even according to an accelerated schedule. We resolved the problems we had with our Georgian colleagues, as everybody knows. There are still 1,500 servicemen in Moldova that are carrying out peacekeeping operations and protecting warehouses with ammunition left over from Soviet times. We constantly discuss this issue with Mr Solana and he knows our position. We are ready to further work in this direction.

But what is happening at the same time? Simultaneously the so-called flexible frontline American bases with up to five thousand men in each. It turns out that NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders, and we continue to strictly fulfil the treaty obligations and do not react to these actions at all.

I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernisation of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those declarations today? No one even remembers them. But I will allow myself to remind this audience what was said. I would like to quote the speech of NATO General Secretary Mr Woerner in Brussels on 17 May 1990. He said at the time that: “the fact that we are ready not to place a NATO army outside of German territory gives the Soviet Union a firm security guarantee”. Where are these guarantees?

The stones and concrete blocks of the Berlin Wall have long been distributed as souvenirs. But we should not forget that the fall of the Berlin Wall was possible thanks to a historic choice – one that was also made by our people, the people of Russia – a choice in favour of democracy, freedom, openness and a sincere partnership with all the members of the big European family.

And now they are trying to impose new dividing lines and walls on us – these walls may be virtual but they are nevertheless dividing, ones that cut through our continent. And is it possible that we will once again require many years and decades, as well as several generations of politicians, to dissemble and dismantle these new walls?

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

We are unequivocally in favour of strengthening the regime of non-proliferation. The present international legal principles allow us to develop technologies to manufacture nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes. And many countries with all good reasons want to create their own nuclear energy as a basis for their energy independence. But we also understand that these technologies can be quickly transformed into nuclear weapons.

This creates serious international tensions. The situation surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme acts as a clear example. And if the international community does not find a reasonable solution for resolving this conflict of interests, the world will continue to suffer similar, destabilising crises because there are more threshold countries than simply Iran. We both know this. We are going to constantly fight against the threat of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Last year Russia put forward the initiative to establish international centres for the enrichment of uranium. We are open to the possibility that such centres not only be created in Russia, but also in other countries where there is a legitimate basis for using civil nuclear energy. Countries that want to develop their nuclear energy could guarantee that they will receive fuel through direct participation in these centres. And the centres would, of course, operate under strict IAEA supervision.

The latest initiatives put forward by American President George W. Bush are in conformity with the Russian proposals. I consider that Russia and the USA are objectively and equally interested in strengthening the regime of the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their deployment. It is precisely our countries, with leading nuclear and missile capabilities, that must act as leaders in developing new, stricter non-proliferation measures. Russia is ready for such work. We are engaged in consultations with our American friends.

In general, we should talk about establishing a whole system of political incentives and economic stimuli whereby it would not be in states’ interests to establish their own capabilities in the nuclear fuel cycle but they would still have the opportunity to develop nuclear energy and strengthen their energy capabilities.

In connection with this I shall talk about international energy cooperation in more detail. Madam Federal Chancellor also spoke about this briefly – she mentioned, touched on this theme. In the energy sector Russia intends to create uniform market principles and transparent conditions for all. It is obvious that energy prices must be determined by the market instead of being the subject of political speculation, economic pressure or blackmail.

We are open to cooperation. Foreign companies participate in all our major energy projects. According to different estimates, up to 26 percent of the oil extraction in Russia – and please think about this figure – up to 26 percent of the oil extraction in Russia is done by foreign capital. Try, try to find me a similar example where Russian business participates extensively in key economic sectors in western countries. Such examples do not exist! There are no such examples.

I would also recall the parity of foreign investments in Russia and those Russia makes abroad. The parity is about fifteen to one. And here you have an obvious example of the openness and stability of the Russian economy.

Economic security is the sector in which all must adhere to uniform principles. We are ready to compete fairly.

For that reason more and more opportunities are appearing in the Russian economy. Experts and our western partners are objectively evaluating these changes. As such, Russia’s OECD sovereign credit rating improved and Russia passed from the fourth to the third group. And today in Munich I would like to use this occasion to thank our German colleagues for their help in the above decision.

Furthermore. As you know, the process of Russia joining the WTO has reached its final stages. I would point out that during long, difficult talks we heard words about freedom of speech, free trade, and equal possibilities more than once but, for some reason, exclusively in reference to the Russian market.

And there is still one more important theme that directly affects global security. Today many talk about the struggle against poverty. What is actually happening in this sphere? On the one hand, financial resources are allocated for programmes to help the world’s poorest countries – and at times substantial financial resources. But to be honest -- and many here also know this – linked with the development of that same donor country’s companies. And on the other hand, developed countries simultaneously keep their agricultural subsidies and limit some countries’ access to high-tech products.

And let’s say things as they are – one hand distributes charitable help and the other hand not only preserves economic backwardness but also reaps the profits thereof. The increasing social tension in depressed regions inevitably results in the growth of radicalism, extremism, feeds terrorism and local conflicts. And if all this happens in, shall we say, a region such as the Middle East where there is increasingly the sense that the world at large is unfair, then there is the risk of global destabilisation.

It is obvious that the world’s leading countries should see this threat. And that they should therefore build a more democratic, fairer system of global economic relations, a system that would give everyone the chance and the possibility to develop.

Dear ladies and gentlemen, speaking at the Conference on Security Policy, it is impossible not to mention the activities of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). As is well-known, this organisation was created to examine all – I shall emphasise this – all aspects of security: military, political, economic, humanitarian and, especially, the relations between these spheres.

What do we see happening today? We see that this balance is clearly destroyed. People are trying to transform the OSCE into a vulgar instrument designed to promote the foreign policy interests of one or a group of countries. And this task is also being accomplished by the OSCE’s bureaucratic apparatus which is absolutely not connected with the state founders in any way. Decision-making procedures and the involvement of so-called non-governmental organisations are tailored for this task. These organisations are formally independent but they are purposefully financed and therefore under control.

According to the founding documents, in the humanitarian sphere the OSCE is designed to assist country members in observing international human rights norms at their request. This is an important task. We support this. But this does not mean interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, and especially not imposing a regime that determines how these states should live and develop.

It is obvious that such interference does not promote the development of democratic states at all. On the contrary, it makes them dependent and, as a consequence, politically and economically unstable.

We expect that the OSCE be guided by its primary tasks and build relations with sovereign states based on respect, trust and transparency.

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

In conclusion I would like to note the following. We very often – and personally, I very often – hear appeals by our partners, including our European partners, to the effect that Russia should play an increasingly active role in world affairs.

In connection with this I would allow myself to make one small remark. It is hardly necessary to incite us to do so. Russia is a country with a history that spans more than a thousand years and has practically always used the privilege to carry out an independent foreign policy.

We are not going to change this tradition today. At the same time, we are well aware of how the world has changed and we have a realistic sense of our own opportunities and potential. And of course we would like to interact with responsible and independent partners with whom we could work together in constructing a fair and democratic world order that would ensure security and prosperity not only for a select few, but for all.

Thank you for your attention.






http://www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/rede.php?sprache=en&id=179&print=&
 
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Is this is possiable now that Russia and Pakistan have good and long lasting ties with the help of china :cool:
 
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Russia will open up to Pakistan with or without help of China. We're growing faster than ever and Russians in time will claim their stake in this emerging market. :tup:
 
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The font size makes it unreadable!

sure not a problem.

Nato warns Russia on Estonia row
Nato has urged Russia to stop threats against staff in Estonia's Moscow embassy, amid a row over the moving of a Soviet war memorial in Tallinn.
Estonia closed its consulate in Moscow after pro-Kremlin youth groups attacked diplomats in protest at the move.

Russia dismissed criticism of the protest, saying Estonia's move had seriously damaged relations.

Meanwhile Russia suspended oil supplies by rail through Estonia, but said the stoppage was not for political reasons.

Correspondents say the move could revive Western concerns that Moscow is using its oil and gas reserves as a political weapon against its former Soviet neighbours.

Estonians of Russian origin rioted last week after the controversial statue of a Soviet soldier was moved away from the centre of Tallinn.

One person died and 153 were injured in the unrest.

Estonians say the soldier symbolised Soviet occupation. Russians describe it as a tribute to those who fought the Nazis.

'Assault attempt'

A Nato statement urged the two sides to resolve the row diplomatically.


ESTONIA-RUSSIA TIES
1918 : Estonia gained independence from Russia
1940 : Forcibly incorporated into Soviet Union
1941-1944 : Occupied by Nazi Germany
1944 : Soviets return as Nazis retreat
1991 : Gains independence as Soviet Union collapses
1994 : Last Russian forces leave Estonia
Now : Ethnic Russians make up quarter of Estonia's 1.3m people


"Nato is deeply concerned by threats to the physical safety of Estonian diplomatic staff, including the ambassador, in Moscow, as well as intimidation at the Estonian embassy," the statement said.

"These actions are unacceptable, and must be stopped immediately; tensions over the Soviet war memorial and graves in Estonia must be resolved diplomatically between the two countries."

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Estonia's decision to move the statue had "led to seriously negative consequences for Russian-Estonian relations".

In a phone call to his Estonian counterpart Urmas Paet, he said the Moscow protest would be kept within the law.

On Wednesday, Estonia's foreign ministry said there was an attempt to physically assault their ambassador at a news conference, as members of the Russian youth organisation "Nashi" tried to disrupt it.

It said the incident amounted to a violation of diplomatic conventions.

Reports said Russian police also scuffled with activists outside the Estonian embassy, arresting one person as protesters attempted to prevent diplomats entering or leaving the building.

The Swedish foreign ministry has meanwhile submitted a formal protest to Russia after its ambassador's car was stopped and damaged by a crowd outside the Estonian embassy in Moscow.

Following the disturbances, the European Union said it would send a delegation to raise concerns with Russia over the increasing violence.

A European Commission spokeswoman said the EU "strongly urged" the Russian authorities to implement their obligations under the Vienna Convention for diplomatic relations.

US State Department spokesman Tom Casey called on the Moscow authorities to do everything they could to reduce tensions.

More than a quarter of Estonia's 1.3 million people are ethnically Russian, and speak Russian. However, half of them do not have Estonian citizenship.

During the years of Soviet occupation after the war tens of thousands of Estonians were killed. They say their country was effectively colonised, with many Russians being brought in as workers and military personnel.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6619103.stm

Published: 2007/05/03 11:58:56 GMT

© BBC MMVII
 
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