More Americans See China as World’s Leading Economic Power

[Aepsilons]

Chinese power-projection, render your beautiful prose to be rather meaningless.

Okay, for the sake of argument, suppose what you say is true. However, who is America to bear judgment on what China should or shouldn't do? Does she hold the mantle centered in non-maleficence, jurisprudence, on all-inclusive human rights requisitions and cultivation of human growth through the peace-oriented approach?

I suppose, my friend, America's disastrous wars in Viet Nam, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan -- bars the United States, in principle, to be self imposed judge, jury, and executioner of global transcendentalism, yes? I mean, the United States lecturing China (or any other state) about the errors of power projection ? I don't want to sound harsh, but , mon frere, that's the height of arrogance.


Sincerely.
Kenji

Stop toying with Diplo-Speak!

I'm an academic, how i write is how i think, and reflects my varied network(s). It bears to mind the multidimensionality of problems that we are so adamant in discoursing therein lies the cusp of dictum. I suppose exchanges through political dialectics is a necessary platform...

I think most posters on PDF are too confined in their world view and give undue importance to news which in greater scheme of things is just one move in what is an infinite move chess game.

That seems to be the issue , Piper, in that excessive confinement tends to negate problems-based , and solutions-based empirical review. One has to be open to hear the other side, rather than remain stiffened in one's position, there is basically negation for room in dialogue, which is so essential here.

Cheers.

 

[Desertfalcon]

who is America to bear judgment on what China should or shouldn't do?

America has long standing alliances, long standing ties, and long standing interests in the region. We have an obligation to meet with those. We will do so. It is China that has started this regional arms race. Chinese strategic expansion that all those countries mentioned by me, fear. It is not simply a matter of the China vs. the USA. We would much prefer to stick with economic cooperation but China is pushing country after country in the region, to escalate...including yours.

Japan plans largest ever defence budget to counter China's reach | World news | The Guardian

 

[Piper]

Okay, for the sake of argument, suppose what you say is true. However, who is America to bear judgment on what China should or shouldn't do? Does she hold the mantle centered in non-maleficence, jurisprudence, on all-inclusive human rights requisitions and cultivation of human growth through the peace-oriented approach?

I suppose, my friend, America's disastrous wars in Viet Nam, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan -- bars the United States, in principle, to be self imposed judge, jury, and executioner of global transcendentalism, yes? I mean, the United States lecturing China (or any other state) about the errors of power projection ? I don't want to sound harsh, but , mon frere, that's the height of arrogance.


Sincerely.
Kenji



I'm an academic, how i write is how i think, and reflects my varied network(s). It bears to mind the multidimensionality of problems that we are so adamant in discoursing therein lies the cusp of dictum. I suppose exchanges through political dialectics is a necessary platform...



That seems to be the issue , Piper, in that excessive confinement tends to negate problems-based , and solutions-based empirical review. One has to be open to hear the other side, rather than remain stiffened in one's position, there is basically negation for room in dialogue, which is so essential here.

Cheers.

Rest assured there is plenty of Dialogue and not at just the inter government level. It is just that this forum being a defence forum is by design myopic and tends to focus more on conflicts than co-operation.

The second factor is that Chinese postures is out of character with their previous behaviour so obviously there would be some resistance. However the fact remains that US will protect it's interests in the region within certain limits. There is a limit to the ground we will cede to China. If China extends itself further then there will be push-back. I think these limits have already been communicated to China and China is now testing the rigidity of limits.

I urge you to follow the news in coming months- it would be interesting!

My personal opinion is that SCS is fair game and the China's costly denial strategy is unlikely to produce any real gains. US has to do nothing but wait patiently while China alienates neutral parties.

 

[Aepsilons]

America has long standing alliances, long standing ties, and long standing interests in the region. We have an obligation to meet with those. We will do so. It is China that has started this regional arms race. Chinese strategic expansion that all those countries mentioned by me, fear. It is not simply a matter of the China vs. the USA. We would much prefer to stick with economic cooperation but China is pushing country after country in the region, to escalate...including yours.

The point is that Japan is gradually, incrementally, becoming more self sufficient and independent in terms of self defense mandates. There is a gradual trimming of reliance on American power systems.

Rest assured there is plenty of Dialogue and not at just the inter government level. It is just that this forum being a defence forum is by design myopic and tends to focus more on conflicts than co-operation.

The second factor is that Chinese postures is out of character with their previous behaviour so obviously there would be some resistance. However the fact remains that US will protect it's interests in the region within certain limits. There is a limit to the ground we will cede to China. If China extends itself further then there will be push-back. I think these limits have already been communicated to China and China is now testing the rigidity of limits.

I urge you to follow the news in coming months- it would be interesting!

My personal opinion is that SCS is fair game and the China's costly denial strategy is unlikely to produce any real gains. US has to do nothing but wait patiently while China alienates neutral parties.

Your writing style is very familiar. Hehe, reminds me of someone, ah, o well, lol.

On point tho; let's keep a continuous observation on the situation. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Desertfalcon]

The point is that Japan is gradually, incrementally, becoming more self sufficient and independent in terms of self defense mandates. There is a gradual trimming of reliance on American power systems.

And that is happy news, but the more germane point is that you ignored the specific reason for Japanese military expansion, which is to counter China's.

 

[Shotgunner51]

That's because their media has been blaring CHINA NUMBER 1 ECONOMY (subtext: by PPP) for several years now.

It just goes to show that actual facts don't really matter in this situation.

It's all a game of perception, and it serves American interests to "exaggerate" our capabilities for public consumption. And it serves our interests to understate our capabilities. Unfortunately America has a lot more media influence so their narrative wins out.

They are correct in some way, China is a lot bigger in many real economic sectors e.g. agricultural output, industrial output, manufacturing VA, infrastructure, energy generation, trade volume (and value). The industrial base is so big that it absorbs more than half of the world's many commodities say iron ore, copper, and produces more than half of world's output in many merchandise from steel, nonferrous metals to machinery and computers. Last year China exported over $2.2 trillion of merchandise to rest of the world, 57% of which were electro-mechanical products, 20% were electronics. China imported 65% of world's total semiconductor/IC output. Overcapacity as it is, the industrial base is just way too big.

On the other hand it's also true than China's GDP in services sector is far smaller than that of US, the two economies are fundamentally different. Chinese households have abnormally high savings rate ( The World Factbook ) resulting in low consumption. China has one of the most regulated, least developed financial markets in the world, virtual economy is primitive. Government spending is normal, in which security spending is kept at very low level.

Looking forward, as long as the dollar retains its status quo, US economy can run at deficits in both public sector and external sector, both household consumption and government spending (security spending in particular) can maintain at high levels.

 

[gambit]

Um, I'm 54, retired from 20 years of military service from literally, all over the world, having lived and worked in more than two dozen countries. The veteran of two wars, a couple of other minor ones, and I have a university degree in history.

You can practically see the condescension oozed through the Internet from his 'recommendation' on what you should do and think, and finally when he called you 'dear boy'. When I first got here, I got plenty of the same from those who barely got out of college.

American being a rational actor instead choses to accept the inevitable emergence of China as a pre-eminent global economy provided China behaves rationally.

Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union had an active economic relationship up to 1941...

Nazi–Soviet economic relations (1934–41) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Why Hitler chose to attack Russia is still a matter of debate, but what is not debatable is that while the decision to attack Russia maybe wrong in hindsight, it was not made irrationally. I am of the realist school of thought regarding inter-state relations, a not well known G Lowes Dickinson, who perhaps ironically was an advocate of the League of Nations in the hope of containment of the idea of realism that he helped formulated. So far, Dickinson have been proven correct, at least in general behaviors, if not the specifics, of how and why powers of any level does what they do to each other.

China is hoping to break out of her current status as a contestant major power in Asia into great power and finally into hegemon status. She is using JPN as example on how to do some things and when not to do what. If China perceives, wrongly or rightly, that she can withstand the pain, economic and else, of having an open conflict with either the US or any other contestant major power like JPN or SKR, China will take that conflict. States are no different than organics regarding the ability to calculate costs and benefits. It would be wrong to take any actions by China as 'irrational'.

 

[Azeri440]

it's no secret everyone is looking to China for growth.

but now look at China it's slowing down, the BRICS aren't what we thought they would be.

Brazil-failing
Russia-sanctions,recession. failing
India-growing
China-slowing,corruption,bubbles
South-failing

just look around!! the world sees weakness and we are heading for another great recession or worse a depression


not even China can spend it's self out of this mess

China is slowing? its obviously not possible to sustain a 7+% growth forever

 

[Aepsilons]

My emphasis was Latin American history but I continue to read much military history, diplomatic history, etc. My senior thesis was on the Chilean coup of 1973.

Good to know.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I am sure you are aware about MIC in states and such a behemoth needs an enemy to justify it's continued existence

Yes, the interests groups are indeed big and influential.

Other than the Pentagon, there are other domestic revenue sources say NSA, CIA military budgets/programs, foreign military aid, etc. Export markets are also huge, and could be even more lucrative since negotiations are often conducted behind closed doors. Potential competitors are kept at bay, or within supply chain if techs are applicable. This is big business, and requires a well-coordinated, highly effective complex to operate.

 

[Aepsilons]

And that is happy news, but the more germane point is that you ignored the specific reason for Japanese military expansion, which is to counter China's.

In the end, publications of Japan's supposed 'increase' in defense spending is all relative. It refers to expenditure in Yen, which, im sure as you and i can agree to this, has devalued recently. Budget spending in 2012 was at $59 Billion per year, currently in 2016 it is at 5.015 trillion yen, or in other words $41 billion. It has decreased by $18 Trillion in real term. So, is Japan really increasing defense spending or is she scaling back? I suppose it depends on interpretation and on whom is doing the interpreting.

Japan sees China as a partner. Security issues can be worked with through our special bilateral mechanisms in place. And a conflict is not even in the horizon for us.

https://www2.jiia.or.jp/pdf/fellow_report/150630_Ms_Ross_ECS.pdf

Towards regional peace !

 

[Piper]

Why Hitler chose to attack Russia is still a matter of debate, but what is not debatable is that while the decision to attack Russia maybe wrong in hindsight, it was not made irrationally. I am of the realist school of thought regarding inter-state relations, a not well known G Lowes Dickinson, who perhaps ironically was an advocate of the League of Nations in the hope of containment of the idea of realism that he helped formulated. So far, Dickinson have been proven correct, at least in general behaviors, if not the specifics, of how and why powers of any level does what they do to each other.

China is hoping to break out of her current status as a contestant major power in Asia into great power and finally into hegemon status. She is using JPN as example on how to do some things and when not to do what. If China perceives, wrongly or rightly, that she can withstand the pain, economic and else, of having an open conflict with either the US or any other contestant major power like JPN or SKR, China will take that conflict. States are no different than organics regarding the ability to calculate costs and benefits. It would be wrong to take any actions by China as 'irrational'.

1. Soviet front was if anything but irrational. Considering the high probability of US joining the WW2. It was but a given that Axis powers will loose WW2 when faced against two large Industrial Nations.

2. The actions of Hitler were rooted in his irrational psyche. The objectives of Germany in WW2 were not at all realistic. When the leader and in this case the Dictator at the helm himself was an unstable individual it would not be a stretch to assume that many of the strategic decision themselves were irrational. I conceded that German Commanders and the forces were top notch and made brilliant tactical decisions in many cases but they were let down by faulty leadership at the top.

3. The world today is vastly different. There is much greater connectivity of economies due to globalization of labor forces and exponential improvements in communications and travel. It would be a folly to think that the things will play out the same way as in the 30s and 40s.

I agree with the later half of your assessment. One thing though should be noted that there is no grand design which China is pursuing at this stage. The current happenings are merely testing of waters and gaging the strength and will of the adversary. This is a precursor to over-arching strategy.

 

[Aepsilons]

This is a precursor to over-arching strategy.

 

[bbccdd1470]

More Americans See China as World’s Leading Economic Power
In 20 years, more believe that America will have number one economy
February 24, 2016 10:35 am


More Americans believe that China is the world’s leading economic power, not the United States, according to a Gallup poll.

Fifty percent of Americans believe that China has the top economy, while 37 percent of Americans say the United States is number one. Those percentages shift when asking about the economy in 20 years. Thirty-four percent say China will be number one, and 44 percent say America will be number one.

“In 2000, when the U.S. economy was booming, nearly two-thirds of Americans saw their own country as the leading global economic power,” states the report. “However, by the next time Gallup asked about this—in February 2008, as the U.S. was in a recession and China’s economy was growing at nearly 10 percent annually—China had edged ahead of the U.S., 40 percent vs. 33 percent, and Japan had slipped to third.”

The report finds that both Republicans and Democrats are more optimistic about America’s economic outlook. “Gallup now finds more Americans predicting that the U.S. rather than China will be the world’s leading economic power in 20 years,” the report explains.

“Whether China or the U.S. is the larger economic power is not entirely straightforward,” states Gallup. “On the basis of raw GDP, the U.S. is still larger, but when accounting for prices and consumer purchasing power, the International Monetary Fund recently declared China biggest.”

“Regardless, China’s rapid economic growth over the past decade or more, along with the United States’ economic struggles, likely contributed to Americans’ perceptions that China had overtaken the U.S.”

More Americans See China as World’s Leading Economic Power

This is just matter of time for the American to fully recognize the rise of China is inevitable.

 

[Desertfalcon]

In the end, publications of Japan's supposed 'increase' in defense spending is all relative. It refers to expenditure in Yen, which, im sure as you and i can agree to this, has devalued recently. Budget spending in 2012 was at $59 Billion per year, currently in 2016 it is at 5.015 trillion yen, or in other words $41 billion. It has decreased by $18 Trillion in real term. So, is Japan really increasing defense spending or is she scaling back? I suppose it depends on interpretation and on whom is doing the interpreting.

Japan sees China as a partner. Security issues can be worked with through our special bilateral mechanisms in place. And a conflict is not even in the horizon for us.

https://www2.jiia.or.jp/pdf/fellow_report/150630_Ms_Ross_ECS.pdf

Towards regional peace !

Again, more academic language that ignores the fact that Japan, by her own admission, is expanding it's military as a direct result of China's strategic and military expansion throughout Asia, that is part of a new Asian arms race caused by China, that I KNOW you cannot be ignorant of as even here on PDF, there are numerous threads on that topic that you, yourself, have commented on! Yes, Japan in some areas, sees China as a partner....so does the United States, but that cannot disguise the fact that there is currently a massive new arms race going on in country after country in Asia, including Japan, from South Korea to the countries bordering the South China Sea, all the way to Australia, all as a direct result of China's actions and policies.