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More American troops will not solve the Afghan quagmire

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More American troops will not solve the Afghan quagmire
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Afghanistan is back in the headlines. The 16-year US-led war – which began as a response to the attacks of September 11, 2001 – is still ongoing. America has about 8400 troops posted there, in addition to thousands of international NATO forces. But the country is in meltdown, with the Kabul government controlling less territory than at any time since 2001, civilian and military casualties sky-rocketing, and terror attacks becoming more common. Kabul, the capital, once seen as a safe-haven, is regularly rocked by suicide bombs, such as the blast that tore through a Shia mosque yesterday.

Given the situation in the country, it is hardly surprising that US Defense Secretary James Mattis was grilled about Afghanistan before the US Congress this week. It has been rumored for some time that the Trump administration intends to escalate the American military presence there by thousands of troops. Mattis, taking his pew on the Hill, admitted that the US is “not winning”, but said that Afghanistan policy is currently undergoing review and that a strategy will not be finalized until July. The Trump administration is expected to deploy about 4000 more troops.

Read more: The power struggle in Afghanistan: Who will emerge victorious?

The military cannot defeat the Taliban
Such is the potency of the Taliban, that many are calling for the US to negotiate a truce. Some kind of power-sharing agreement with the militant group seems like the only way out of this mess. It is unclear from Mattis’ recent statements if he supports such a move (which was endorsed by the Obama administration)

However, experts on Afghanistan believe that a military solution to the conflict is out of reach. The Taliban, which might number about 30,000, has been gradually taking territory from the Kabul government. It has twice captured the key northern city of Kunduz in the past two years and seems on the verge of seizing major towns in the south. While further American troops may band-aid the situation, this is only a short-term solution. The Taliban’s support is growing, with Iran and Russia.

Such is the potency of the Taliban, that many are calling for the US to negotiate a truce. Some kind of power-sharing agreement with the militant group seems like the only way out of this mess. It is unclear from Mattis’ recent statements if he supports such a move (which was endorsed by the Obama administration). Mattis seemed to reject giving the Taliban a political role at a speech in Australia recently and made no explicit mention of a diplomatic solution before Congress.

However, he did say the US was pursuing a “regional” approach to the Afghan quagmire. Mattis gave no detail as to what he meant, so one can only speculate. Perhaps he means that the US will follow the advice of various hawks in Washington and crack down on Pakistan for its supposed harboring of the Afghan Taliban. Policy wonks in DC have been calling for America to sanction Pakistan and unleash strikes – maybe drone strikes – on militant sanctuaries in Balochistan, where the Quetta Shura (Taliban leadership) is based.


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More American troops will not solve the Afghan quagmire

 
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