Modi’s Big Bad Defense Shopping List

[cerberus]

India is the biggest roller in the global arms trade. The country is the world's largest arms importer and has inked over 18 defense deals with US, Russia, Israel, Germany, France and Britain in 2014-15. Its defense spending is expected to touch US$80 billion by 2015. At this pace analysts expect India to spend over $250 billion over the next decade. This lucrative market is attracting more and more western manufacturers who are fighting defense budget cuts back home.

Over the years more than 60% of the army's budget has been spent on salary, leaving a mere 40% margin for new defense equipment. Both theAir Force and the Navy has been hit by delays in manufacture, upgrade and acquisition. Not to mention the chain of accidents that took out several INS vessels. India's current defense minister Manohar Parrikar, 58, wants to fast-track some of the biggest defense deals in the history of the Indian Army. Not only because it's big money we're talking about, but because the country's outdated artillery is in dire need of an upgrade.

The Modi government has already cleared a $8 billion plan to build India's most advanced warships. They've already ordered new submarines to stay at par with the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean.

Make Weapons in India:
The Modi government is already promoting 'Make in India' with the Association of Defence Companies in India, an alliance of leading companies like Boeing, Punj Llyod, Augusta Westland, Lockheed Martin, Rolls Royce, Saab, Northrop Gruman, Rolta, BAE Systems, Dassault, Honeywell, Thales and the likes.

This forum would allow these companies to comment on key policy matters pertaining to the government, armed forces and state-run enterprises that affect their operations.

Mind, India's Tata group and Europe's Airbus have already jointly made a bid after FDI (foreign direct investment) rules were eased this August.

The big bad guns:
Here are some of the biggest deals the Modi government may fast-track or dump:

· The $19.5 billion deal of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) from France's Dassault Aviation. This ended up as a 36-jet deal. Later, as the IAF urged the government to clear 44 additional fighter jets, the government turned down the request.
· Six sub-marines that are expected to be built by Indian defense firms for an eye watering $8 billion.
· The $6.5 billion helicopter deal that includes 440 helicopters for all three services. The majority of these are planned to be manufactured in India.Boeing among others would supply the rest.
· The $4.74 billion deal that includes new defense equipment including four marine spy aircrafts from Boeing and hundreds of air defense guns. The costliest order approved was for 428 L-70 and ZU23 air defense guns.

The hits:

Image credit: Atimes
The biggest defense contract signed in the first 16 months of the NDA government is undoubtedly that of Boeing's Apache and Chinook helicopters for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The deal for 22 Apache attack and 15 heavy lift Chinook helicopters is worth around $2.5 billion.

The misses:

Image credit: Military World
India's largest defense deal worth a whopping $20 billion may be scrapped after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to France this April. The new deal to buy 36 'ready-to-fly' Rafale fighter jets from Dassault may see the former multi-billion-dollar deal scrapped.


Modi’s Big Bad Defense Shopping List | Business Insider India

@SpArK @PARIKRAMA @migflug @Abingdonboy

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Unfortunately Every Indian PM has a big shopping list as the 3 serves does require a deep rooted modernisation. The issue in hand is how much we should procure from abroad and how much from within military industrial complex in India.

Take for example, in defence budget the pensions and other benefits runs to a whopping Rs 70,000 plus crores. Now when we have such a figure, it makes a huge hole in actual budget allocation every year on year. Implying the "real free" money available for acquisitions even if its according to a tranche payment seems a bit too much.

If we go by this article and say that 36 flyawya was requested by IAF to be expanded to 80 and rest 90 via MII rfp and DM parrikar said no due to budget issues and in turn parrikar pushed LCA Then the question to ask is how much money outflow was there for 44 additional jets say over 5-10 years and in the same tenor how many LCA's will come to IAF realistically.
Rafale is medium and LCA is light. We do require both. But budget for procuring LCA should have been kept completely aside.

A better way was to define that out of total budget allocated for capital acquisition, 35-40% should be directly acquired from abroad and rest 60-65% from make in India (inclusive of licenced, assembling or with full TOT any of the options etc).

Now once defined it becomes clear what can be procured at how much quantity and how much payment for tranche can be made every yeat becomes a simple financial management matter.

For some time, all boarders do feel IN is doing best by completely going withing Indian shipyards for procuring their needs except weapons. But can we say the same for IAF? Some folks call IAF as import lover, kickback takers etc etc but can some one say clearly which are the capabilities that IAF can buy from within Indian military Industrial complex. LCA is a light category bird which even today is not completely the top of the line. Its suppose to evolve to a very potent platform which even i agree. But what about today, what about next 5-10 years? Which Indian company can build a medium category bird? Plans for AMCA is 15 years from now.. What about Heavy? Licenced production of Su30 MKI at Rs440 crs versus half of that cost when produced in Russia directly (pls check news reports of last 3-4 days). In simple words, our industry has not evolved to the next level to enable us to support in the smae way as IN is getting support form all shipyards. A further analogy is look at how many shipyards are there today and from what time they have been in business.. Pvt or public. New entrants in pvt is there no doubt but look at over all numbers.. and then compare how many aircraft manufacturing units are there? You see the stark difference there itself.

True acquisition of 10 squadrons LCA (1sqd = 20 birds) is needed. But we also require 10 sqds of MMRCA besides what we have and 5 sqds of 5th gen heavy jet for multirole or perhaps air superiority.. Later we can add 5 sqds each of light and medium category stealth version of home developed projects like say LCA Mk3 and AMCA. But that takes tiem. What about immediate next 15-20 years?

I believe a more prudent way would be a 1% of GDP clearly marked for modernisation of all 3 services (capex/opex). Not for any salary benefits etc payment. of this 0.60% to indigenous and 0.40% for imports and progressively increase the domestic part by 0.04% every year. The whole program is valid for just 10 years post which this additional 1% is not available anymore.

As much as i have mentioned IAF, IA also needs a lot more in modernisation. Also strategically, we need far more network centric hubs with radars of different bands and range to be there like a spider web across the country. Especially the need is to fast track our efforts on Long range radars for specific BMD purposes and mass deployment of quick reaction SAMs of various ranges in a multi tiered defence shield.

The army needs a far more capable autonomous systems in and around borders. Also a much more modern soldier gear for all weather, all terrain and all time day or night..

IN subs and ASW weapons and helos are long overdue too.

So there is no point stating PM is scrapping X, Y tender due to cost constraint... Better learn the truth, increase the efficiency of the whole system, decrease the time required for a decision and also be realistic and increase the defence spending for a 10 year period and state clearly that we wish to be 90% dependent on indigenous platforms which are made in india and thats our target after 10/15 years. Also give a 1% GDP additional budget for modernisation for a fixed period of 10 years for benefiting all 3 services as well as requirements of intelligence and cyber services. Then the question will come to efficiency part and stopping wastage/corruption.

For the moment, it looks awesome to see such a big budget with reality of nothing substantial for procurement/ modernisation. A mountain of green forest when looked from far and come near its a desert with only cactal plants growing...

 

[Abingdonboy]

India is the biggest roller in the global arms trade. The country is the world's largest arms importer and has inked over 18 defense deals with US, Russia, Israel, Germany, France and Britain in 2014-15. Its defense spending is expected to touch US$80 billion by 2015. At this pace analysts expect India to spend over $250 billion over the next decade. This lucrative market is attracting more and more western manufacturers who are fighting defense budget cuts back home.

Over the years more than 60% of the army's budget has been spent on salary, leaving a mere 40% margin for new defense equipment. Both theAir Force and the Navy has been hit by delays in manufacture, upgrade and acquisition. Not to mention the chain of accidents that took out several INS vessels. India's current defense minister Manohar Parrikar, 58, wants to fast-track some of the biggest defense deals in the history of the Indian Army. Not only because it's big money we're talking about, but because the country's outdated artillery is in dire need of an upgrade.

The Modi government has already cleared a $8 billion plan to build India's most advanced warships. They've already ordered new submarines to stay at par with the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean.

Make Weapons in India:
The Modi government is already promoting 'Make in India' with the Association of Defence Companies in India, an alliance of leading companies like Boeing, Punj Llyod, Augusta Westland, Lockheed Martin, Rolls Royce, Saab, Northrop Gruman, Rolta, BAE Systems, Dassault, Honeywell, Thales and the likes.

This forum would allow these companies to comment on key policy matters pertaining to the government, armed forces and state-run enterprises that affect their operations.

Mind, India's Tata group and Europe's Airbus have already jointly made a bid after FDI (foreign direct investment) rules were eased this August.

The big bad guns:
Here are some of the biggest deals the Modi government may fast-track or dump:

· The $19.5 billion deal of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) from France's Dassault Aviation. This ended up as a 36-jet deal. Later, as the IAF urged the government to clear 44 additional fighter jets, the government turned down the request.
· Six sub-marines that are expected to be built by Indian defense firms for an eye watering $8 billion.
· The $6.5 billion helicopter deal that includes 440 helicopters for all three services. The majority of these are planned to be manufactured in India.Boeing among others would supply the rest.
· The $4.74 billion deal that includes new defense equipment including four marine spy aircrafts from Boeing and hundreds of air defense guns. The costliest order approved was for 428 L-70 and ZU23 air defense guns.

The hits:

Image credit: Atimes
The biggest defense contract signed in the first 16 months of the NDA government is undoubtedly that of Boeing's Apache and Chinook helicopters for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The deal for 22 Apache attack and 15 heavy lift Chinook helicopters is worth around $2.5 billion.

The misses:

Image credit: Military World
India's largest defense deal worth a whopping $20 billion may be scrapped after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to France this April. The new deal to buy 36 'ready-to-fly' Rafale fighter jets from Dassault may see the former multi-billion-dollar deal scrapped.


Modi’s Big Bad Defense Shopping List | Business Insider India

@SpArK @PARIKRAMA @migflug @Abingdonboy

I would Modi's government a 6/10 for their performance in defence matters in the past year or so.



The good:


-P-17As cleared (big plus)
-More Scorpenes looking likely
-IAC-2's EMALS secured (looks like it)
-AH-64Es ordered
-CH-47Fs ordered
-C-295 (with local production) purchase cleared
-SPG cleared (K9 seems to have won)
-AD guns cleared (RFI anyway)
-Follow on order of Mi-75V5s made
-AMCA roadmap cleared with funds released







The bad:

-3 new Tri-service commands (Special Operations, Cyber and Space) STILL awaiting clearance that too when the forces are saying they have laid all the requisite groundwork.
-S-70B STILL awaiting contract signature (apparently there is forward movement on this)
-M777 not signed STILL (a revised deal is being worked don apparently)
-Opportunity for more (brand new) C-17s has been entirely SQUANDERED
-NLUH appears to be going nowhere
-A330 MRTT deal is dragging on for god knows what reason
-MGS still not ordered
-No (seemingly) foreward movement in F-INSAS (BMS or personal equipment side)






For both areas (good and bad) there will be MANY more than I have missed or overlooked.




The Rafale saga could go either way, it looked like the 126 number would be realised making this perhaps the Modi government's most notable defence achievement to date but this has been called into question recently. A deal for 36 Rafales only (not going to happen IMHO) would be a HUGE, indelible, stain for which they could not be forgiven.