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Look out for the approaching freight train
Monday, March 02, 2009
Comment
By Shaheen Sehbai
BRUSSELS: As I landed in the cool climes of this Belgian and Nato capital on Saturday night, I received a brief but terse message from a writer colleague reminding me of something I had written six months back. In a few hours another top-notch columnist, in so many words, also wrote almost the same thing, not to me but in his famous column in his newspaper. Both these reminders, together with some pieces of information that I had gathered before flying to Nato briefings, gave me a huge wake up call to see the loaded freight train which was heading our way, without functioning brakes.
“Your column last September advising a cleanup before the new president takes over was never so right as today. I wish your warning had been heeded,” colleague and friend Anjum Niaz said in her SMS message. She was obviously referring to my piece which had been erroneously misperceived by many as an invitation to the Pakistan Army to once again derail the democratic process. Not many got the real message and meaning of my argument then. Today some are.
Senior most columnists of the country have started writing on this topic. One of them in his Sunday piece said after recalling the current scenario and President Asif Ali Zardari’s ways and means of handling the democratic process: “The damage has been done, but can be mitigated ... Let us not forget former COAS Gen Wahid Kakar who in 1993, without raising a stick or moving a brigade saw off, calmly and peacefully, both the president and the prime minister.” Just to remind what I had writtenin September, if it is permitted:
1. The political leaders and parties are not prepared, or capable, of handling this mess. It would, in fact, be unfair and totally unjustified to expect them to clear the nine-year Musharraf backlog. After the politicians, in all fairness, it is the prime responsibility of the Pakistan Army, which under Gen Musharraf created this situation and which should now undo the wrongs.
2. Just by walking away under the pretext of “neutrality” and protecting their ex-commander by giving him a guard of honour, as if he was leaving after performing tremendous feats for Pakistan, the generals who collaborated with Musharraf cannot get away from their national duty and responsibility to undo the wrongs.
3. Still it would be a right thing if the Army decided to correct the situation even now (that was September 08), unless they do not want to take the heat to a point in a few months when the generals will be sucked in, walking in like saviours to save the situation, like it has been happening in the past.
4. Honesty and sincerity demands that the present Army generals put in their bit to help correct the distortions left over by Musharraf.
Then I had offered the following sequence of steps, besides others, that the Army must take before the politicians are handed over the full reins of the country, the presidency and the Prime Minister house included:
a) Since Gen Musharraf had imposed emergency on November 3, 2007 as COAS, to suspend the Constitution, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani should find a way to undo all that was wrongfully done. It is his responsibility.
b) Kayani should use his influence to get the judges restored to the November 2 position, because Musharraf threw them out fearing a judgment against him, as the politicians would never be able to reach a consensus in view of their own insecurities and vulnerabilities.
c) When Army power can be used to thrust a one man rule and perpetuate his interests, why can’t army’s influence be used to undo the wrongs for which the entire institution of the army is facing the blame and Kayani has been forced to push it into the background.
The thrust was that the politicians could not clean the dirt as they are neither visionaries, nor that tall, nor experienced, prepared or motivated to look beyond their noses.
Today after what Mr Zardari has systematically done to emulate General Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, all put together, it is becoming obvious where he is headed — to grab absolute and unchecked power. If that be so, who and what will be his next target or stop?
The information that is available in Pakistan, and being discussed in hushed tones in important drawing rooms brings us back to what role the Pakistan Army would play and whether Mr Zardari will be allowed to achieve his very commendable goals, if the situation is seen from his perspective.
According to the consensus of informed analysts and insiders, who know Mr Zardari, General Kayani, Mian Nawaz Sharif and other players, the next target of Mr Zardari is the free and independent sections of the media which he thinks have crossed the limits and acquired an out of proportion clout and influence which must be cut to its size. This is an easier goal to achieve.
The next goal is much harder and insiders say quiet efforts have already begun to achieve it. Any analyst worth his name could predict that after taking over the PPP, grabbing the government, becoming the all-powerful president, keeping a pliant judiciary on his side at whatever cost, eliminating the largest and the biggest political opposition, taking over the largest province under direct control, having all national economic and financial structures under his arm through cronies and friends, striking and cutting down the outspoken media, the only target left for Mr Zardari would be to have his own team of generals in the Pakistan Army.
Some facts would help assess the size and scope of this mission and explain the vulnerability of the target itself (data acquired from Wikipedia):
If Mr Zardari stays on for his full term of office till 2013, all the current 33 lieutenant generals in the Pakistan Army would have been replaced, the last one, Lt Gen Nadeem Khalid Lodhi retiring on February 17, 2013;
If Mr Zardari stays for say next 20 months he would get the opportunity to replace 13 top most generals out of 33, the last of them, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani retiring on November 28, 2010. Before him the other retirements would occur in this order: General Tariq Majeed (October 8, 2010), Lt Gen Ahsan Azhar Hayat, Lt Gen Sajjad Akram, Gen Nadeem Ahmad, Lt Gen Muhammad Zaki, Lt Gen Sikandar Afzal and Lt Gen Ijaz Ahmed Bakhshi (April 11, 2010), Lt Gen Raza Muhammad Khan, Lt Gen Muhammad Masood Aslam, Lt Gen Shafaat Ullah Shah and Lt Gen Mohammad Hamid Khan (Sept 23, 2009), and Lt Gen Syed Sabahat Hussain (May 5, 2009);
In the next six and a half months, five Lt Generals will retire and new ones will have to be promoted by General Kayani. The first upcoming retirement is in about eight weeks when Lt General Syed Sabahat Hussain Naqvi will retire on May 5, 2009.
All this means if Mr Zardari wants to get a grip on the top echelons of the Pakistan Army, he would not get the opportunity to push his own favorite generals, if any, until November 2010 when General Kayani retires.
But the buzz in the presidency is that Mr Zardari is in a hurry and he is already privately meeting some of the generals who will retire soon. According to one fly on the wall, at least three uniformed officials have been seen visiting the presidency at odd hours, like 3 am in the morning and the GHQ has already got alerted. One of these three has been military secretary to three previous prime ministers, including Benazir Bhutto and this link is said to be the key.
So if Mr Zardari is even thinking of any such idea, after all his victories, political, moral, not so moral et al, this will be the big freight train that will hit everybody, in weeks.
If after all the havoc which politicians are now bent on wreaking, destroying whatever is left or could have been rebuilt after Musharraf’s disastrous era, the men in uniform have ultimately to come and save the situation, it would be a tragedy of monumental dimensions.
The elderly columnist in his Sunday piece has very politely reminded General Kayani of what General Kakar had done in 1993. And the old man of journalism has also pronounced that though Mr Zardari is merely emulating his father-in-law, he is no Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and never will be.
To recap, ZAB had kicked out an army and an air force chief but that was when he had just started his rule after the 1971 debacle. Mr Zardari appears to be racing closer to the end of his rule within months.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Comment
By Shaheen Sehbai
BRUSSELS: As I landed in the cool climes of this Belgian and Nato capital on Saturday night, I received a brief but terse message from a writer colleague reminding me of something I had written six months back. In a few hours another top-notch columnist, in so many words, also wrote almost the same thing, not to me but in his famous column in his newspaper. Both these reminders, together with some pieces of information that I had gathered before flying to Nato briefings, gave me a huge wake up call to see the loaded freight train which was heading our way, without functioning brakes.
“Your column last September advising a cleanup before the new president takes over was never so right as today. I wish your warning had been heeded,” colleague and friend Anjum Niaz said in her SMS message. She was obviously referring to my piece which had been erroneously misperceived by many as an invitation to the Pakistan Army to once again derail the democratic process. Not many got the real message and meaning of my argument then. Today some are.
Senior most columnists of the country have started writing on this topic. One of them in his Sunday piece said after recalling the current scenario and President Asif Ali Zardari’s ways and means of handling the democratic process: “The damage has been done, but can be mitigated ... Let us not forget former COAS Gen Wahid Kakar who in 1993, without raising a stick or moving a brigade saw off, calmly and peacefully, both the president and the prime minister.” Just to remind what I had writtenin September, if it is permitted:
1. The political leaders and parties are not prepared, or capable, of handling this mess. It would, in fact, be unfair and totally unjustified to expect them to clear the nine-year Musharraf backlog. After the politicians, in all fairness, it is the prime responsibility of the Pakistan Army, which under Gen Musharraf created this situation and which should now undo the wrongs.
2. Just by walking away under the pretext of “neutrality” and protecting their ex-commander by giving him a guard of honour, as if he was leaving after performing tremendous feats for Pakistan, the generals who collaborated with Musharraf cannot get away from their national duty and responsibility to undo the wrongs.
3. Still it would be a right thing if the Army decided to correct the situation even now (that was September 08), unless they do not want to take the heat to a point in a few months when the generals will be sucked in, walking in like saviours to save the situation, like it has been happening in the past.
4. Honesty and sincerity demands that the present Army generals put in their bit to help correct the distortions left over by Musharraf.
Then I had offered the following sequence of steps, besides others, that the Army must take before the politicians are handed over the full reins of the country, the presidency and the Prime Minister house included:
a) Since Gen Musharraf had imposed emergency on November 3, 2007 as COAS, to suspend the Constitution, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani should find a way to undo all that was wrongfully done. It is his responsibility.
b) Kayani should use his influence to get the judges restored to the November 2 position, because Musharraf threw them out fearing a judgment against him, as the politicians would never be able to reach a consensus in view of their own insecurities and vulnerabilities.
c) When Army power can be used to thrust a one man rule and perpetuate his interests, why can’t army’s influence be used to undo the wrongs for which the entire institution of the army is facing the blame and Kayani has been forced to push it into the background.
The thrust was that the politicians could not clean the dirt as they are neither visionaries, nor that tall, nor experienced, prepared or motivated to look beyond their noses.
Today after what Mr Zardari has systematically done to emulate General Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, all put together, it is becoming obvious where he is headed — to grab absolute and unchecked power. If that be so, who and what will be his next target or stop?
The information that is available in Pakistan, and being discussed in hushed tones in important drawing rooms brings us back to what role the Pakistan Army would play and whether Mr Zardari will be allowed to achieve his very commendable goals, if the situation is seen from his perspective.
According to the consensus of informed analysts and insiders, who know Mr Zardari, General Kayani, Mian Nawaz Sharif and other players, the next target of Mr Zardari is the free and independent sections of the media which he thinks have crossed the limits and acquired an out of proportion clout and influence which must be cut to its size. This is an easier goal to achieve.
The next goal is much harder and insiders say quiet efforts have already begun to achieve it. Any analyst worth his name could predict that after taking over the PPP, grabbing the government, becoming the all-powerful president, keeping a pliant judiciary on his side at whatever cost, eliminating the largest and the biggest political opposition, taking over the largest province under direct control, having all national economic and financial structures under his arm through cronies and friends, striking and cutting down the outspoken media, the only target left for Mr Zardari would be to have his own team of generals in the Pakistan Army.
Some facts would help assess the size and scope of this mission and explain the vulnerability of the target itself (data acquired from Wikipedia):
If Mr Zardari stays on for his full term of office till 2013, all the current 33 lieutenant generals in the Pakistan Army would have been replaced, the last one, Lt Gen Nadeem Khalid Lodhi retiring on February 17, 2013;
If Mr Zardari stays for say next 20 months he would get the opportunity to replace 13 top most generals out of 33, the last of them, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani retiring on November 28, 2010. Before him the other retirements would occur in this order: General Tariq Majeed (October 8, 2010), Lt Gen Ahsan Azhar Hayat, Lt Gen Sajjad Akram, Gen Nadeem Ahmad, Lt Gen Muhammad Zaki, Lt Gen Sikandar Afzal and Lt Gen Ijaz Ahmed Bakhshi (April 11, 2010), Lt Gen Raza Muhammad Khan, Lt Gen Muhammad Masood Aslam, Lt Gen Shafaat Ullah Shah and Lt Gen Mohammad Hamid Khan (Sept 23, 2009), and Lt Gen Syed Sabahat Hussain (May 5, 2009);
In the next six and a half months, five Lt Generals will retire and new ones will have to be promoted by General Kayani. The first upcoming retirement is in about eight weeks when Lt General Syed Sabahat Hussain Naqvi will retire on May 5, 2009.
All this means if Mr Zardari wants to get a grip on the top echelons of the Pakistan Army, he would not get the opportunity to push his own favorite generals, if any, until November 2010 when General Kayani retires.
But the buzz in the presidency is that Mr Zardari is in a hurry and he is already privately meeting some of the generals who will retire soon. According to one fly on the wall, at least three uniformed officials have been seen visiting the presidency at odd hours, like 3 am in the morning and the GHQ has already got alerted. One of these three has been military secretary to three previous prime ministers, including Benazir Bhutto and this link is said to be the key.
So if Mr Zardari is even thinking of any such idea, after all his victories, political, moral, not so moral et al, this will be the big freight train that will hit everybody, in weeks.
If after all the havoc which politicians are now bent on wreaking, destroying whatever is left or could have been rebuilt after Musharraf’s disastrous era, the men in uniform have ultimately to come and save the situation, it would be a tragedy of monumental dimensions.
The elderly columnist in his Sunday piece has very politely reminded General Kayani of what General Kakar had done in 1993. And the old man of journalism has also pronounced that though Mr Zardari is merely emulating his father-in-law, he is no Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and never will be.
To recap, ZAB had kicked out an army and an air force chief but that was when he had just started his rule after the 1971 debacle. Mr Zardari appears to be racing closer to the end of his rule within months.
