Letter to Editor: Taiwan's urgent need for nuclear weapons
4872
By Matthew Clayton, Taiwan News, Contributing Writer
2021/11/02 17:11
[IMG alt="A Taiwanese flag flaps in the wind in Taoyuan, Taiwan, June 30, 2021. (Reuters photo)
"]https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2021/10/12/1634023722-6165392a5be13.png[/IMG]
A Taiwanese flag flaps in the wind in Taoyuan, Taiwan, June 30, 2021. (Reuters photo)
It has become clear over the past few months that Taiwan's sovereignty is in danger.
China has been emboldened by the world's failure to punish it for its deceit and complicity in the spread of the COVID-19 virus and also by the American capitulation in Afghanistan.
The addition of “Xi Jinping Thought” to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Constitution in 2017 made Xi Jinping (習近平) the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao.
The honor shows the days of political domination in China by one man are with us again. Xi looks set to be an influential force in Chinese politics far into the future.
Chairman Xi has presided over a rapid cooling of relations with Taiwan. This, combined with the political strength of President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) party in Taiwan is ominous, even if President Tsai does not declare independence.
China no longer stresses peaceful relations in the region as it did when it was militarily inferior. As China's capability increases, its rhetoric and posture become ever more bellicose.
This, together with its continual and spurious claim that Taiwan belongs to it, serves as a warning of China's end strategy. The question is not if an invasion will happen but when.
The recent AUKUS pact between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom suggests the West is now realizing the threat China poses not only to Taiwan but to the region. Similar to the 1930s concerning Hitler's rise in Europe, however, it will prove too late.
As early as 2017, China's plethora of defensive weapons had the potential to render an American response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan a failure, and Chinese capabilities have only increased since then, reducing the human and political cost of attacking Taiwan. Even worse is the Biden administration's alarming political ambivalence on defending Taiwanese sovereignty.
In tandem with a slump in the polls, this could prompt China to attack Taiwan before the next American presidential election, where former President Trump looks set to run again.
It is not a coincidence that China's posture has been much more aggressive since President Trump left office. The infiltration by the Chinese into the critical infrastructure of other Western powers, such as nuclear power stations and internet networks in the U.K., also serves to make a multilateral Western counter-attack unlikely.
Japan has constitutional restrictions on using its military to attack rather than defend. All of these factors show that Taiwan cannot rely on outside help to be saved in the event of an attack.
A radical departure from current deterrence strategy is needed to save Taiwan. The only credible deterrence that will safeguard Taiwan's sovereignty is an independent nuclear strike capability.
At this stage, it is natural to ask: why would this make a difference if American nuclear weapons do not deter a Chinese invasion? This can be explained by a very simple calculation: because unlike the U.S., Taiwan would be fighting for its very survival as a nation.
Take the example of Israel. Invaded twice by its neighbors, no wise person seriously entertains the notion of a third invasion since it was furnished with an independent nuclear deterrent with the help of the U.S. and multiple European nations.
Taiwan is both outnumbered and outgunned by the Chinese military and will only fall further behind. Nuclear weapons are the only alternative to guarantee Taiwan's sovereignty.
If Taiwan's allies are serious about laying down a marker to deter Chinese aggression in the future, it is time to do for Taiwan what was done for Israel. In the case of Japan, lending assistance in this endeavor would serve as a useful way to demonstrate its well-known capability to “go nuclear” without actually going through the constitutional and political risks of in fact doing so.
Taiwan is not the only Pacific dispute involving the Chinese. The window for Taiwan's allies to help it establish credible deterrence in the region becomes narrower every day and by the end of Biden's administration could prove too late.
Anything less than providing nuclear weapons to Taiwan amounts to appeasement of China and will prove to be a mistake of historic and catastrophic proportions.
www.taiwannews.com.tw
4872
By Matthew Clayton, Taiwan News, Contributing Writer
2021/11/02 17:11
[IMG alt="A Taiwanese flag flaps in the wind in Taoyuan, Taiwan, June 30, 2021. (Reuters photo)
"]https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2021/10/12/1634023722-6165392a5be13.png[/IMG]
A Taiwanese flag flaps in the wind in Taoyuan, Taiwan, June 30, 2021. (Reuters photo)
It has become clear over the past few months that Taiwan's sovereignty is in danger.
China has been emboldened by the world's failure to punish it for its deceit and complicity in the spread of the COVID-19 virus and also by the American capitulation in Afghanistan.
The addition of “Xi Jinping Thought” to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Constitution in 2017 made Xi Jinping (習近平) the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao.
The honor shows the days of political domination in China by one man are with us again. Xi looks set to be an influential force in Chinese politics far into the future.
Chairman Xi has presided over a rapid cooling of relations with Taiwan. This, combined with the political strength of President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) party in Taiwan is ominous, even if President Tsai does not declare independence.
China no longer stresses peaceful relations in the region as it did when it was militarily inferior. As China's capability increases, its rhetoric and posture become ever more bellicose.
This, together with its continual and spurious claim that Taiwan belongs to it, serves as a warning of China's end strategy. The question is not if an invasion will happen but when.
The recent AUKUS pact between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom suggests the West is now realizing the threat China poses not only to Taiwan but to the region. Similar to the 1930s concerning Hitler's rise in Europe, however, it will prove too late.
As early as 2017, China's plethora of defensive weapons had the potential to render an American response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan a failure, and Chinese capabilities have only increased since then, reducing the human and political cost of attacking Taiwan. Even worse is the Biden administration's alarming political ambivalence on defending Taiwanese sovereignty.
In tandem with a slump in the polls, this could prompt China to attack Taiwan before the next American presidential election, where former President Trump looks set to run again.
It is not a coincidence that China's posture has been much more aggressive since President Trump left office. The infiltration by the Chinese into the critical infrastructure of other Western powers, such as nuclear power stations and internet networks in the U.K., also serves to make a multilateral Western counter-attack unlikely.
Japan has constitutional restrictions on using its military to attack rather than defend. All of these factors show that Taiwan cannot rely on outside help to be saved in the event of an attack.
A radical departure from current deterrence strategy is needed to save Taiwan. The only credible deterrence that will safeguard Taiwan's sovereignty is an independent nuclear strike capability.
At this stage, it is natural to ask: why would this make a difference if American nuclear weapons do not deter a Chinese invasion? This can be explained by a very simple calculation: because unlike the U.S., Taiwan would be fighting for its very survival as a nation.
Take the example of Israel. Invaded twice by its neighbors, no wise person seriously entertains the notion of a third invasion since it was furnished with an independent nuclear deterrent with the help of the U.S. and multiple European nations.
Taiwan is both outnumbered and outgunned by the Chinese military and will only fall further behind. Nuclear weapons are the only alternative to guarantee Taiwan's sovereignty.
If Taiwan's allies are serious about laying down a marker to deter Chinese aggression in the future, it is time to do for Taiwan what was done for Israel. In the case of Japan, lending assistance in this endeavor would serve as a useful way to demonstrate its well-known capability to “go nuclear” without actually going through the constitutional and political risks of in fact doing so.
Taiwan is not the only Pacific dispute involving the Chinese. The window for Taiwan's allies to help it establish credible deterrence in the region becomes narrower every day and by the end of Biden's administration could prove too late.
Anything less than providing nuclear weapons to Taiwan amounts to appeasement of China and will prove to be a mistake of historic and catastrophic proportions.
Letter to Editor: Taiwan's urgent need for nuclear weapons | Taiwan News | 2021-11-02 17:11:00
Letter to Editor: Taiwan's urgent need for nuclear weapons | 2021-11-02 17:11:00
www.taiwannews.com.tw
