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Lack of social reform endangers China's future
* Source: Global Times
* [21:32 June 01 2010]
* Comments
Lu Xueyi
Editor's Note:
Why is the gap between the poor and the afflluent growing larger? Why do those born into officials' families get a larger share of the pie than the children of farmers? Why is social conflict in China intensifying as the nation gets richer? Is social immobility in China growing? The Guangdong-based Nanfengchuang magazine (NFC) talked with Lu Xueyi (Lu), former director of the Institute of Sociology, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on these issues.
NFC: Many think that social mobility in China has decreased. What's your opinion?
Lu: Chinese citizens only began to have the chance to move up and down the socioeconomic ladder after the start of reform and opening-up. China's social mobility is not diminishing, but the ways of changing status have altered. Currently, China's social structure includes 10 social classes, which is very diversified compared to the pre-reform period. Thus the ways of moving up the social ladder have also diversified, while in the past people could only change their status by going to university or joining the army.
A typical feature of China's open social structure is the growth of the middle class. Since reform and opening-up started, the number of self-employed people has been increasing by 1.03 million annually. From 1995 to 2007, the number of private business owners has been increasing by 73,000 annually. Many other people are becoming middle class through other means.
In 2007, the middle class population accounted for 23 percent of all employed people, 8 percent higher than 1999. Currently, around 8 million people have become members of the middle class.
This is social mobility. I think the children of the poor today have many chances to join the middle class.
But since the start of this century, two trends in China's social mobility have co-existed. One is the rapid growth of middle class population, and the other is the intensification of social differentiation. The two add uncertainty to China's social mobility.
Moreover, although growing rapidly, China's middle class population is far from sufficient. The lack of a middle class between elites and ordinary people can cause instability in any society, and chaos and friction can easily occur.
China's policies should focus on nurturing the middle class and reducing the numbers of the poor, as well as regulating interests among different classes. In this way, people can freely move up or down the social ladder.
As long as China doesn't change its policies supporting the middle class, all the problems are temporary. Migrant workers' problems will be solved in the end and their children won't always be poor.
NFC: The problems of the "second generation" of people born after reform and opening-up are heatedly discussed. The gulf in living conditions between the children of the rich and those of the poor is immense. Is this a serious problem?
Lu: This problem does exist, but it's a temporary one. However, we should study and judge social phenomenon from a long-term holistic perspective. China is going through a transition phase from a traditional society to a modern society and it's natural and normal that social conflicts sharpen.
Every modern country has endured this phase. In 1900, when the total value of output of manufacturing outgrew that of agriculture, the US faced serious social crises of political corruption, disordered markets, fierce labor-management conflicts, a gulf between the rich and the poor, and social anomie. So did Japan and the Latin American countries during their periods of rapid development.
NFC: So China's sharpening social conflicts and differentiation are inevitable? What causes these problems?
Lu: Social conflicts always exist, but the sharpening social conflicts and differentiation are abnormal. One fundamental reason for these problems is that China's social structure development lags behind its economic structure development.
China has been concentrating so intensely on pursuing rapid economic growth that it distributed resources and opportunities that should have gone to societal development.
China needs to promote social reform. The US, Japan and Latin American countries went through different paths to economic prosperity, depending on whether they underwent social reform and construction at the proper time or not.
China has entered the middle phase of industrialization economically, but its social structure is still at the primary stage of industrialization. The development of China's social structure is about 15 years behind the economy.
NFC: Why does China's social structure development lag so seriously behind?
Lu: The reasons are complicated. First, China is transferring from a planned economy to a mar-ket economy at the same time as it's transferring from an agricultural society to a modern industrialized society. The simultaneous transitions make the change even harder and conflicts can easily occur.
Second, although economic reform has been carried through, in a way social reform hasn't begun. The hukou (registration) system and other regulations based on rural-urban differences originated in the planned economy era and haven't been changed.
All these systems don't fit a market economy at all.
NFC: What will be the results if social reform is postponed for a long time?
Lu: The US, Japan and the Latin American countries can all serve as examples. The US strengthened social construction, promoting social justice and turning fury and anxiety and insecurity into motives for reform.
Japan has realized the importance of social construction, but didn't practice social reform thoroughly. In the end, Japan became an economic power at a high cost. It hasn't solved housing problems for every group, for instance.
Latin American countries have been trapped in a continuous cycle of boom and recession, as they didn't have a clear plan for social construction and didn't undergo a deep and complete social reform.
If China doesn't begin social reforms in time, it might follow the Latin American countries' fate.
Currently, China's social structure changes are driven by market power and state power. There are four possibilities, based on the economic situation and policies.
First, if the economy grows at a fairly good speed, and polices and systems adjust to social reform in time, an ideal modern society with the middle class as its main body will be formed. The cur-rent social problems will disappear.
Second, if policies and political systems cannot be adjusted to economic development in time, the gap among elites, middle class and lower class will be widened, and the middle class will only make up a small part of the population. Thus social instability will increase.
Third, if economy grows slowly but policies and political systems can be adjusted to enhance a reasonable development of social structure, the current social problems will still disappear.
Fourth, if economic development doesn't go smoothly and political systems don't change to fit the changing economy, the upper class and lower class might grow to be the majority of the population. Serious conflicts between the two classes will certainly put society in danger. Current problems will be sharpened and enlarged, until they reach a point where they can no longer be solved.
Up till now China's social structure hasn't become fixed, but the possibility of immobility is growing due to the postponement of social reform. If we let it go on like this, society faces the possibility of fracturing and crisis.
NFC: What is the key point for social reform?
Lu: The central government's determination. Ever since the reform and opening-up, some crucial decisions and reforms have been promoted by the central government forcefully. Social conflicts, social immobility and social fracture all originate from the basic system. Individuals can't break systems and offer solutions.
* Source: Global Times
* [21:32 June 01 2010]
* Comments
Lu Xueyi
Editor's Note:
Why is the gap between the poor and the afflluent growing larger? Why do those born into officials' families get a larger share of the pie than the children of farmers? Why is social conflict in China intensifying as the nation gets richer? Is social immobility in China growing? The Guangdong-based Nanfengchuang magazine (NFC) talked with Lu Xueyi (Lu), former director of the Institute of Sociology, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on these issues.
NFC: Many think that social mobility in China has decreased. What's your opinion?
Lu: Chinese citizens only began to have the chance to move up and down the socioeconomic ladder after the start of reform and opening-up. China's social mobility is not diminishing, but the ways of changing status have altered. Currently, China's social structure includes 10 social classes, which is very diversified compared to the pre-reform period. Thus the ways of moving up the social ladder have also diversified, while in the past people could only change their status by going to university or joining the army.
A typical feature of China's open social structure is the growth of the middle class. Since reform and opening-up started, the number of self-employed people has been increasing by 1.03 million annually. From 1995 to 2007, the number of private business owners has been increasing by 73,000 annually. Many other people are becoming middle class through other means.
In 2007, the middle class population accounted for 23 percent of all employed people, 8 percent higher than 1999. Currently, around 8 million people have become members of the middle class.
This is social mobility. I think the children of the poor today have many chances to join the middle class.
But since the start of this century, two trends in China's social mobility have co-existed. One is the rapid growth of middle class population, and the other is the intensification of social differentiation. The two add uncertainty to China's social mobility.
Moreover, although growing rapidly, China's middle class population is far from sufficient. The lack of a middle class between elites and ordinary people can cause instability in any society, and chaos and friction can easily occur.
China's policies should focus on nurturing the middle class and reducing the numbers of the poor, as well as regulating interests among different classes. In this way, people can freely move up or down the social ladder.
As long as China doesn't change its policies supporting the middle class, all the problems are temporary. Migrant workers' problems will be solved in the end and their children won't always be poor.
NFC: The problems of the "second generation" of people born after reform and opening-up are heatedly discussed. The gulf in living conditions between the children of the rich and those of the poor is immense. Is this a serious problem?
Lu: This problem does exist, but it's a temporary one. However, we should study and judge social phenomenon from a long-term holistic perspective. China is going through a transition phase from a traditional society to a modern society and it's natural and normal that social conflicts sharpen.
Every modern country has endured this phase. In 1900, when the total value of output of manufacturing outgrew that of agriculture, the US faced serious social crises of political corruption, disordered markets, fierce labor-management conflicts, a gulf between the rich and the poor, and social anomie. So did Japan and the Latin American countries during their periods of rapid development.
NFC: So China's sharpening social conflicts and differentiation are inevitable? What causes these problems?
Lu: Social conflicts always exist, but the sharpening social conflicts and differentiation are abnormal. One fundamental reason for these problems is that China's social structure development lags behind its economic structure development.
China has been concentrating so intensely on pursuing rapid economic growth that it distributed resources and opportunities that should have gone to societal development.
China needs to promote social reform. The US, Japan and Latin American countries went through different paths to economic prosperity, depending on whether they underwent social reform and construction at the proper time or not.
China has entered the middle phase of industrialization economically, but its social structure is still at the primary stage of industrialization. The development of China's social structure is about 15 years behind the economy.
NFC: Why does China's social structure development lag so seriously behind?
Lu: The reasons are complicated. First, China is transferring from a planned economy to a mar-ket economy at the same time as it's transferring from an agricultural society to a modern industrialized society. The simultaneous transitions make the change even harder and conflicts can easily occur.
Second, although economic reform has been carried through, in a way social reform hasn't begun. The hukou (registration) system and other regulations based on rural-urban differences originated in the planned economy era and haven't been changed.
All these systems don't fit a market economy at all.
NFC: What will be the results if social reform is postponed for a long time?
Lu: The US, Japan and the Latin American countries can all serve as examples. The US strengthened social construction, promoting social justice and turning fury and anxiety and insecurity into motives for reform.
Japan has realized the importance of social construction, but didn't practice social reform thoroughly. In the end, Japan became an economic power at a high cost. It hasn't solved housing problems for every group, for instance.
Latin American countries have been trapped in a continuous cycle of boom and recession, as they didn't have a clear plan for social construction and didn't undergo a deep and complete social reform.
If China doesn't begin social reforms in time, it might follow the Latin American countries' fate.
Currently, China's social structure changes are driven by market power and state power. There are four possibilities, based on the economic situation and policies.
First, if the economy grows at a fairly good speed, and polices and systems adjust to social reform in time, an ideal modern society with the middle class as its main body will be formed. The cur-rent social problems will disappear.
Second, if policies and political systems cannot be adjusted to economic development in time, the gap among elites, middle class and lower class will be widened, and the middle class will only make up a small part of the population. Thus social instability will increase.
Third, if economy grows slowly but policies and political systems can be adjusted to enhance a reasonable development of social structure, the current social problems will still disappear.
Fourth, if economic development doesn't go smoothly and political systems don't change to fit the changing economy, the upper class and lower class might grow to be the majority of the population. Serious conflicts between the two classes will certainly put society in danger. Current problems will be sharpened and enlarged, until they reach a point where they can no longer be solved.
Up till now China's social structure hasn't become fixed, but the possibility of immobility is growing due to the postponement of social reform. If we let it go on like this, society faces the possibility of fracturing and crisis.
NFC: What is the key point for social reform?
Lu: The central government's determination. Ever since the reform and opening-up, some crucial decisions and reforms have been promoted by the central government forcefully. Social conflicts, social immobility and social fracture all originate from the basic system. Individuals can't break systems and offer solutions.
