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Japanese Black Widow; Could a Revived F-23 Program Soon Provide the East Asian State with the World’s Most Capable Fighter Jet?
The rapid rise of China's People's Liberation Army in the 21st century has represented perhaps the most considerable shift in the balance of military power globally since the Second World War, and resulted in a swift and unexpected return to great power competition for the U.S. led Western Bloc. This has had profound impacts in all areas of the U.S. military's defence planning and those of many of its allies - including military aviation. Indeed, the rapid modernisation of China's People's Liberation Army Air Force, today fielding the world's largest air superiority fleet and as of 2017 having indicted its first fifth generation fighter, has led to the possibility of a revival of what many analysts have considered the world's most capable fighter program in U.S. history - the F-23 Black Widow. The Western Bloc's primary defence partner in the Asia Pacific, Japan, has sought a cutting edge fighter with a role similar to that the F-23 was designed to fulfil. With Japan's air force poorly equipped to retain even basic parity with that of China, and its ruling party increasingly pushing for remiltiarisation and a greater role in U.S. led regional initiatives regarding China and North Korea, American defence manufacturer Northrop Grumman has proposed developing a fifth generation air superiority fighter for the country's Air Force. This fighter will supposedly be capable of contending with China's J-20 and upcoming fifth generation designs such as the J-31 - which will be heavily based on the YF-23 Black Widow design made for the U.S. Air Force almost 30 years prior.
The YF-23 was designed by Northrop Grumman in the waning years of the Cold War, and had a longer range and considerably superior stealth capabilities that the F-22 and a roughly analogous weapons load. The F-22 was more survivable in visual range engagements - but the key factors which led to its selection were its potential to serve as a carrier based fighter with a few simple conversions as well as its far lower unitary cost. With the Cold War over, the U.S. Air Force’s budget was increasingly strained and the USSR’s successor states appeared unable to contend with the latest American jet - so building the cheaper though slightly less capable jet and sparing the Navy the costs of inducting an entirely separate carrier based platform was prioritised over the higher end YF-23. Today however, with not only Russia’s reemergence as a near peer military aviational power but also China’s emergence as a leading developer of fifth and now sixth generation technologies - the need for the most capable fighter possible appears great indeed.
With the F-35A single engine light fighters sold to Japan extremely poorly suited to an air superiority role, with capabilities far inferior to the F-22 and in many respects even the F-15, the Japanese Air Force has struggled to retain even a basic qualitative parity with China - where quantitive parity remains near impossible. The United States’ refusal to supply Tokyo with the F-22 Raptor, which was expected to by flying in the Japanese Air Force by 2010, did much to undermine the country’s ability to contend air superiority. Today however the U.S. is more than ever heavily reliant on Japanese assistance to retain a favourable balance in the Pacific. With the United States focused on developing a sixth generation ‘air dominance fighter’ for its own defence needs - which could well relax its export controls on high end fifth generation technologies - sales to close partners of high end air superiority technologies found on the F-22, and possibly more capable ones developed since the Raptor’s induction, remain a considerable possibility. This would closely reflect the relaxation on export restrictions on the fourth generation F-15 following the fifth generation F-22's induction in 2005 - providing allies with technologies a generation behind those at the forefront of the U.S. Air Force itself.
While likely to cost well over $200 million per jet to acquire, depending on the size of the order, the Black Widow derivatives will be very likely be more capable than the F-22 - with its long range and superior stealth making them ideal for combat in the Pacific theatre. Such fighters may also be marketed to other U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel - both operators of the aging F-15 which, facing the possibility of Iran acquiring advanced Russian air superiority fighters in the near future, may well seek fifth generation technologies to retain their advantage in the air. For Japan developing a fully indigenous fifth generation air superiority fighter could take up to a decade of research and development - likely by further investing in the Mitsubishi Shinshin X2 jet. The Lockheed Martin F-22, Northrop Grumman F-23, or a derivative of either, provides an easier and faster means of acquiring a new heavy fighter. An F-23 derivative, though it would likely cost considerably more to develop than a fighter based on the F-22, would provide the Japanese Air Force with a superior fighter - one which would be a close contender for the world's most capable fighter jet. Whether these fighters will be able to contend with the fast modernising Chinese fleet, with new technologies rapidly being applied to the J-20 and the possibility of a new sixth generation fighter seeing its first flight in the near future - remains to be seen.
http://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/70785
