Japan GDP contracted 7.1%

[Nova2]

According to IMF and world bank, the data of 2013 already showed that Japan has fallen to 4.9 (2012 UN data over 5.9), if the data is true that would be the biggest fall among all the nations, on contrary china has risen almost as much as Japan has fallen. If it continue like this Japan might even lose the title of third largest economy in 3-4 years to Germany.

Hmm,that was the report i was talking about which i had seen on wiki,but the projection/estimation also states that it would not fall anywhere below $4.5trill instead it would rise slowly back towards $5trillion mark and would stay around $6-7trill by '30,its still a projection though. It would be intresting to see how all of it turns out to be in the end.

 

[itaskol]

I also import japanese brand product and sell in china.
because the of bad relation ，I can not even do bussiness advetising in most of medias.

 

[Huaren]

Hmm,that was the report i was talking about which i had seen on wiki,but the projection/estimation also states that it would not fall anywhere below $4.5trill instead it would rise slowly back towards $5trillion mark and would stay around $6-7trill by '30,its still a projection though. It would be intresting to see how all of it turns out to be in the end.

To be honest I find the data of 2012-2013 a bit hard to believe, almost 1 trill fall within 1 year, that is not a fall but a crash, and if you look at the data from the rest of the world it would appear that by far Japan was the only one doing this bad. Under those circumstances it woud be a miracle if Japan could manage to stop or at least limit the fall, not even mention any possibility of rise in the forseeable fututre.

By lowering the yen and boosting export and investments, abenomic had initially some limited success (although many argued it to be illusion), but for months now the reports about the economy shrinking are coming up again. I have seen all kind of defence arguments that this was natural seasonal shrinking, but if it isnt gonna stop soon (and rise back up) there wont be much left for fooling around anymore.

 

[Zsari]

I think in east Asian culture,everyone know the importance of 孝，so cut the crap about killing old people,also this will not solve the aging problrm,with low birth rate,kill old people=less population,and the suggestione equal humans as animals,I'm ashamed a Chinese suggested such things

From Confucius China picked 孝 while Japan picked 忠.

 

[Jlaw]

Japan GDP: Economy Shrinks at Fastest Pace in More Than Five Years - WSJ

Japan's economy contracted in the second quarter at the fastest pace since 2009, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's efforts to re-energize the economy with pro-growth steps.

Revised data released Monday showed that the country's gross domestic product contracted an annualized 7.1% in the April to June quarter from the previous three-month period as businesses as well as consumers retrenched after the government raised the sales tax. Preliminary figures showed a 6.8% decline.

Separately, Japan reported its current account balance swung to a ¥416.7 billion surplus in July. The broadest measure of Japan's trade with the rest of the world has slipped in and out of the red in recent months, as a weaker yen has yet to lift exports on a sustained basis.

Sugoi!

Not only Japanese,the Koreans,the Chinese and the Taiwanese also face aging problem,the birth rate is really low in those contries,also the birth rate of large cities is lower than small cities,the birth rate of small cities is lower than countryside,urbanization brought the aging problem

The only difference is that the Chinese government (not Taiwan) can increase birthrate with incentives and mass campaign. They've lifted 800m oout of poverty I'm sure they can get people to start fxxing without condoms



The recent abolish of one child policy did not persuade people register to have more kids because it just started. Word of mouth need to get around a bit. Also, next year is year of Ram. Most Chinese people do not like that sign for their kid. Wait until year of the dragon, you will see increase in birthrate.

I think in east Asian culture,everyone know the importance of 孝，so cut the crap about killing old people,also this will not solve the aging problrm,with low birth rate,kill old people=less population,and the suggestione equal humans as animals,I'm ashamed a Chinese suggested such things

When did China suggest killing old people? That's a western thing.

 

[sahaliyan]

Sugoi!





The only difference is that the Chinese government (not Taiwan) can increase birthrate with incentives and mass campaign. They've lifted 800m oout of poverty I'm sure they can get people to start fxxing without condoms



The recent abolish of one child policy did not persuade people register to have more kids because it just started. Word of mouth need to get around a bit. Also, next year is year of Ram. Most Chinese people do not like that sign for their kid. Wait until year of the dragon, you will see increase in birthrate.


When did China suggest killing old people? That's a western thing.

But in some places like Liaoning,the population is already decrease,and you know take care of a child is really expensive,not to mention the high house price(you know very well,in China,you should buy house for your children,then they can marry), so many people don't want to have more children.

 

[sincity]

Japan is the island nation without land border among Japan neighbor, limited young population with the increase aging population, increase oil price netted small profit for industrial output. Totally dependent on imported natural resource from other nation for their industrial, nuclear disaster cut off 1/3 of Japan nuclear energy output for the energy consumption. Japan net trade surplus over 30 billions bilateral trade with China but estrange relationship between 2 country led to China cut down import consumer good from Japan. Japan couldn't diversified their oil import from Iran or Russia because the west sanction upon Iran and Russia. Reeling economy from the US and Europe cut back imported expensive product from Japan. Strong competition among Korea and China in electrical and telecom product driven Japan out of market share in the world. Japan automobile industrial carried Japan industrial good export to the world. Of course Japan couldn't just low the value of the yen spur their economy grown because devalue of the yen cause import raw material to much more expensive. Japan need to outsource their manufacture jobs to other nations which mean line up the pocket of other nations population, due to lower wage pay to the cheap laborers they don't make enough to buy high price product from Japan. Japan economy already reach it peak with less room for grow.

 

[Jlaw]

But in some places like Liaoning,the population is already decrease,and you know take care of a child is really expensive,not to mention the high house price(you know very well,in China,you should buy house for your children,then they can marry), so many people don't want to have more children.

At this time correct. But should the situation become more urgent, than I am sure the CPC will give more incentives to have two children.

 

[Nan Yang]

That was a practice observed by poor families during the feudal age. Of course we won't do that , to even mention us doing that to our senior citizens is very insulting .

Let elderly people 'hurry up and die', says Japanese minister
Taro Aso says he would refuse end-of-life care and would 'feel bad' knowing treatment was paid for by government

Let elderly people 'hurry up and die', says Japanese minister | World news | theguardian.com

And he was then promptly promoted to deputy Prime Minister.

 

[atatwolf]

People are under estimating Japan's economy by comparing to Chinese economy. Japan can take hits. They are UN recovery mode and are doing investments throughout the region. Population is not a problem for Japan. They have their allies in the region with more than enough population for productions and consumption.

Comparing Chinese economy to Japan is madness. China is 1,5 billion people with majority in poverty and living standards way belong Japan. China can produce but their population is so poor that they can't buy it. They can only sell to the west. The truth is the west has decreased buying from China and they say it is going to decrease even more. China has a structural problem they can't fix which will lead to disaster. They also don't have any allies at all compared to the long list of allies and partners Japan has.

Japan is resurgent which I support. They are securing their trade routes and doing massive investments in allied countries. Japan will rise on top sooner or later with their economy and military. We are talking about Japan here. Not some third world country who is using slave labor to sell to the west.

 

[Aepsilons]

I also import japanese brand product and sell in china.
because the of bad relation ，I can not even do bussiness advetising in most of medias.

Its readily apparent that the greatest victim in these unproductive political squabbles is the economic vibrancy that defined Japanese-Sino bilateral trade. Imagine, despite our nations' scoffing relationship, we still managed to see a $300 Billion bilateral trade this year. It is the largest in the region. I'm sure in the coming fiscal year, when Abe-Sensei and Xi-Sensei find the strength to normalize relations -- we can focus more of our energies increasing economic cooperation. I hate to see business being disrupted by island disputes. Fortunately, Abe Sensei was pragmatic enough to see this -- and has appointed 5 new members into the Cabinet, two of whom are known for their Pro-China attitude.

To be honest I find the data of 2012-2013 a bit hard to believe, almost 1 trill fall within 1 year, that is not a fall but a crash, and if you look at the data from the rest of the world it would appear that by far Japan was the only one doing this bad. Under those circumstances it woud be a miracle if Japan could manage to stop or at least limit the fall, not even mention any possibility of rise in the forseeable fututre.

By lowering the yen and boosting export and investments, abenomic had initially some limited success (although many argued it to be illusion), but for months now the reports about the economy shrinking are coming up again. I have seen all kind of defence arguments that this was natural seasonal shrinking, but if it isnt gonna stop soon (and rise back up) there wont be much left for fooling around anymore.

Much of the sensationalism is caused by the mere fact that the Yen is depreciating to the dollar. Let's be objective in comprehensive , financial analysis.

 

[Neptune]

This is indeed worrying. its true Japan needs to review it policies and adapt more to current world trends as some of their electronics have fallen behind some of its east asian rivals.

However, Japan is already a rich/wealthy/developed country, as such its hard for it to grow as fast as other emerging countries who are still relatively poor/low GDP per capital like India,China,turkey,Brazil, Indonesia etc.
As leveraged buyout once said here, to get rich is difficult, but once you are rich/wealthy, its difficult to be poor. Even so, the recent years has been better for Japan since their new prime minister took office, before the growth was always negative, now at least its more positive, though still low, but still its better than before and hopefully things will improve .

So Chinese/indians here shouldn't be rejoicing about Japans demise/slow down, since it will take decades for China to ever reach Japans current living standards(if they ever do at all).

Bro Turkey's gdp ppp is not poor at all but still not at the level we want. It is $19,000 At the group you mentioned the closest competitors are Brazil and China with 11-12 grand. The rest are not even higher than $10,000

 

[Aepsilons]

Bro Turkey's gdp ppp is not poor at all but still not at the level we want. It is $19,000 At the group you mentioned the closest competitors are Brazil and China with 11-12 grand. The rest are not even higher than $10,000

That is right, when we look at the health of a nation, we have to look at the economic capability of the nation's citizens to burden the taxation regimen and the cost of living standards. If we look at Turkey's Gdp per capita and (real) gdp per capita, it shows that it is at $19000. And comparing this to its neighbors indicates overall strength. Despite the humanitarian burden Turkey has taken in the form of refugees from neighbouring Syria, Iraq -- growth remains stable.

Thus said, its impressive to see the Turkish economy's ability to handle said burdens and saturation. Turkey's resiliency should be applauded.

 

[Chronos]

That is right, when we look at the health of a nation, we have to look at the economic capability of the nation's citizens to burden the taxation regimen and the cost of living standards. If we look at Turkey's Gdp per capita and (real) gdp per capita, it shows that it is at $19000. And comparing this to its neighbors indicates overall strength. Despite the humanitarian burden Turkey has taken in the form of refugees from neighbouring Syria, Iraq -- growth remains stable.

Thus said, its impressive to see the Turkish economy's ability to handle said burdens and saturation. Turkey's resiliency should be applauded.

without knowing the specifics, maybe Japan should increasingly turn to the so called third world countries for investment.

Not just India, but other nations in Africa and Latin american nations who are looking for a country with technological expertise and a high benchmark in terms of infrastructure.

It is interesting to witness the transformation of South Korean electronics.

In the 80's my father used to deride them as cheap Japanese knockoffs.

Now, they are at the cutting edge.

China in the future will be no joke either.

But it is time nations like South Korea and Japan looked at emerging economies and consider investments in them.

 

[Aepsilons]

without knowing the specifics, maybe Japan should increasingly turn to the so called third world countries for investment.

Not just India, but other nations in Africa and Latin american nations who are looking for a country with technological expertise and a high benchmark in terms of infrastructure.

It is interesting to witness the transformation of South Korean electronics.

In the 80's my father used to deride them as cheap Japanese knockoffs.

Now, they are at the cutting edge.

China in the future will be no joke either.

But it is time nations like South Korea and Japan looked at emerging economies and consider investments in them.

Absolutely and you're 100% correct, @Ravi Nair . I think with the recent orienting towards South Asia, South East Asia , Latin America, Central Asia and Africa -- is an example of this policy shift. Japan needs to, and it must, diversify its portfolio, in an economic sense, rather than placing importance on the North American market. These said markets are mostly saturated. Whereas South Asia, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America are relatively untapped.

I just wish that former administrations of Hashimoto Ryutaro, Obuchi Keizo, Mori Yoshiro, Fukuda Yasuo, Hatoyama Yukio, Kan Naoto and Noda Yoshihiko realized the potential. However, they failed to expand on these opportunities , or realize their potential. It was only until Abe Sensei came to the fore that he took the mantle to said markets and gave them priority in Japan's overseas expansion designs. The prior administrations were focused only on 2 markets: North America and China.

Diversification is key.