Japan Economy Forum

[Aepsilons]

Nomura CEO Confident on Japan’s Stock Market Growth


Nomura Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Koji Nagai predicted Japanese stocks will rally over the next six years as economic expansion fuels corporate profits.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) will climb to around 25,000 by 2020, up about 57 percent from today, the CEO of Japan’s biggest brokerage said at a forum in Tokyo. “Growth of Japan’s economy is assured until 2020 as it will benefit from development in Asia,” said Nagai, 55.

Nagai’s optimism contrasts with a stalling stock market. The Nikkei 225 has fallen 2.5 percent this year after ending 2013 at a six-year high, as investors grow wary that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies of monetary easing, fiscal spending and structural reforms will boost the economy.

The yen will probably weaken to 120 against the dollar from the current 109.5 around 2016 before stabilizing in the 110 range, Nagai said at the event, which was organized by the Nikkei newspaper.

Japan’s currency has fallen about 4 percent against the dollar in the past month amid prospects for the central bank to continue unprecedented monetary easing while the Federal Reserve weighs the timing of its first rate increase. The yen touched a six-year low of 110.09 on Oct. 1.

The Bank of Japan may end its policy of keeping interest rates at zero as soon as 2017, Nagai said.

via Bloomberg

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Well if it helps I am suppose to buy PS4 its a 100% guarantee I will be helping Sony out.

Hate Apple products

Japan turns to floating solar islands as it seeks to end reliance on nuclear power
Two companies in Japan recently announced they are to begin building two huge solar power islands that will float on reservoirs. This follows Kagoshima solar power plant, the country’s largest, which opened…

Author

1. 
   Jon Major
   Research fellow at University of Liverpool

Disclosure Statement
Jon Major receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

Kagoshima power plant: is floating solar the future? Kyocera
Two companies in Japan recently announced they are to begin building two huge solar power islands that will float on reservoirs. This follows Kagoshima solar power plant, the country’s largest, which opened in late 2013 and is found floating in the sea just off the coast of southern Japan.

These moves comes as Japan looks to move on from the Fukushima disaster of 2011 and meet the energy needs of its 127m people without relying on nuclear power. Before the incident around 30% of the country’s power was generated from nuclear, with plans to push this to 40%. But Fukushima destroyed public confidence in nuclear power, and with earthquakes in regions containing reactors highly likely, Japan is now looking for alternatives.

Solar power is an obvious solution for relatively resource-poor nations. It is clean, cost-competitive, has no restrictions on where it can be used and has the capability to make up for the energy shortfall. A small fact that solar researchers love to trot out is that enough sunlight falls on the earth’s landmass around every 40 minutes to power the planet for a year. To put this another way, if we covered a fraction of the Sahara desert in solar panels we could power the world many times over.

The technology already exists, so producing enough solar power comes primarily down to one thing: space. For countries such as the USA with lots of sparsely populated land this is not an issue, and there have already been a large number of “solar farms” installed around the country.

Great move by Japan Solar is a good environment friendly answer

 

[Aepsilons]

Well if it helps I am suppose to buy PS4 its a 100% guarantee I will be helping Sony out.

Hate Apple products




Great move by Japan Solar is a good environment friendly answer

Thanks for your support, buddy !

 

[Aepsilons]

Japan shares lead Asia lower, dollar index slumps


(Reuters) - Asian shares were off session lows but still nursed losses amid a sell-off in global equities on Thursday, as heightened concerns about world economic growth pressured U.S. Treasury yields and curtailed the dollar's recent rally.

European trading was seen starting on a modestly stronger footing after the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 shed 3.2 percent to mark its biggest one-day slide in almost four years.

"Ahead of European trade, we are calling the major bourses mildly firmer with a bit of a recovery after yesterday's sharp sell-off," IG market strategist Stan Shamu wrote in a note.




MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was down about 0.3 percent in late afternoon trade.

Shanghai shares .SSEC bucked the downtrend and added 0.1 percent after Chinese bank lending data provided a regional bright spot. Lending beat expectations last month, a sign that demand for credit may be picking up, though a drop in China's foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter suggested ominous speculative money outflows.

Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 tumbled 2.2 percent and touched a 4-1/2-month low, though it, too, pulled away from session lows as the dollar retook some ground lost to the yen.

The S&P 500 .SPX briefly turned negative for the year on Wednesday, though S&P 500 e-mini futures .ESc1 added 0.4 percent, which might portend a more stable day ahead on Wall Street as investors await more U.S. data.

September industrial output and weekly jobless claims will be released later on Thursday and could paint a brighter picture than downbeat figures released in the previous session, which came after a recent spate of weak figures from China and Europe that raised fears about the health of the global economy.

U.S. retail sales and producer prices both dropped last month, a worrisome economic signal that helped fuel a sell-off on Wall Street as it quashed expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise U.S. interest rates sooner rather than later.

The New York Fed's Empire State general business conditions index also plunged to 6.17 in October from September's 27.54, marking the weakest pace of manufacturing activity in New York state since April.

The grim mood sparked a safe-haven rally in U.S. Treasuries and pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR as low as 1.865 percent, its deepest nadir since May 2013. It last stood at 2.093 percent in Asian trade.

The rally carried over to the Japanese government bond market, where the yield on the 10-year JGB JP10YTN=JBTC fell as low as a 1-1/2-year trough of 0.470 percent.

Only a month ago, fed funds futures had suggested traders priced in almost a 50 percent chance of a Fed rate increase as early as June 2015. But a jump in short-term U.S. interest rate futures on Wednesday implied traders anticipate the U.S. central bank would not move away from its near zero rate stance until the end of the first quarter in 2016.

The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies .DXY =USD stood at 85.068, down about 0.1 percent on the day and wallowing near levels last plumbed in September. Speculation of higher U.S. interest rates had pushed the index to a four-year high of 86.746 earlier this month.

Against the yen, the dollar took back some lost ground, adding about 0.3 percent on the day to 106.20 yen JPY=, after dropping to a more than one-month low around 105.20 on Wednesday. The euro EUR= slumped to $1.2792 after rising as high as $1.2885 overnight, its highest level since last month.

"For those who were looking to buy the dollar, this was a very healthy correction," said Kaneo Ogino, director at Global-info Co in Tokyo, a foreign exchange research firm.

The dollar's sharp fall overnight lent modest support to oil prices, with U.S. crude futures CLc1 ending just 6 cents lower at $81.78 on Wednesday. But the contract plunged 1.7 percent in Asian trade to $80.43, while Brent crude LCOc1 shed 1.1 percent to $82.72.

Spot gold XAU= was steady at $1,239.60 an ounce, not far from a one-month high of $1,249.30 on Wednesday.

London copper CMCU3 added about 0.3 percent to $6,656.25 a metric ton (1.1023 ton) after shedding 2.3 percent the previous session, its biggest daily drop since March.

(Editing by Eric Meijer and Jacqueline Wong)




Japan shares lead Asia lower, dollar index slumps| Reuters

 

[Aepsilons]

Japanese Market Rallies On Wall Street Lead, Weaker Yen


The Japanese stock market opened sharply higher on Wednesday, with the overnight surge on Wall Street and a weaker yen triggering some hectic buying across the board. Speculation that the European Central Bank will announce further stimulus soon is also contributing to the rally in the market.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index is up 212.8 points or 1.4 percent at 15,017.1, after advancing to 15,129.1.

Fujikura is gaining nearly 6.5 percent. Sumitomo Chemical, Mitsui OSK Lines, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Sumitomo Realty & Development, Tosoh Corp., Tokyo Electron, Alps Electric, Nitto Denko Corp., Obayashi Corp. and Taisei Corp. are up 4 to 6 percent.

JGC Corp., Sumco Corp., Nippon Suisan Kaisha, Nippon Light Metal Holdings, Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Japan Steel Works, Tokyo Tatemono and Furukawa Co. are rising 3 to 4 percent.

Oki Electric Industry, Mitsubishi Estate, Pioneer Corp., Pacific Metals, Sony Corp. (SNE), Sekisui House, West Japan Railway, Olympus Corp. and Shinsei Bank are all moving up by over 2 percent.

Meanwhile, despite a likely jump in earnings, Mitsui Mining & Smelting is declining more than 2.5 percent.

On the economic front, Japan had a merchandise trade deficit of 958.3 billion yen in September, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday. That missed forecasts for a shortfall of 780.0 billion yen following the 949.7 billion yen deficit in August.

Exports were up 6.9 percent on year, beating estimates for a gain of 6.5 percent following the 1.3 percent decline in the previous month.

Imports jumped an annual 6.2 percent versus forecasts for an increase of 2.7 percent after falling 1.4 percent a month earlier.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar traded around 107 yen in early deals in Tokyo, up from Tuesday's close of 106.56 yen.

Among other markets in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand are notably higher, while Shanghai is down marginally.

On Wall Street, stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday, as traders reacted positively to the latest earnings news from some top notch companies, including Apple (AAPL).

The Dow surged up 215.1 points or 1.3 percent to 16,614.8 and the Nasdaq soared 103.4 points 2.4 percent to 4,419.5, while the S&P 500 jumped 37.3 points or 2 percent to 1,941.3.

Major European markets too closed with strong gains on Tuesday. While the French CAC 40 index jumped 2.3 percent, the German DAX index and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index gained 1.9 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

U.S. crude oil ended higher on Tuesday, ahead of the weekly U.S. inventory data amid continued worries over excess supply globally and on concerns over the health of the global economy.

Crude oil futures for December delivery ended up $0.58 or 0.7 percent at $82.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


Read more: Japanese Market Rallies On Wall Street Lead, Weaker Yen - NASDAQ.com

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Lower Oil Prices Seen Easing Japan’s Trade Pain - Japan Real Time - WSJ

• 

• October 22, 2014, 5:11 PM JST

Lower Oil Prices Seen Easing Japan’s Trade Pain
ByMitsuru Obe

Traders work in the crude oil and natural gas options pit on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Getty Images
The recent sharp fall in crude prices comes as welcome news for nations that consume more oil than they produce, but it’s a particularly positive development for Japan, which is struggling with massive trade deficits.

Following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan has been forced to rely heavily on fossil fuels for 90% of its electricity generation, with natural gas accounting for half of the total.

In 2013, Japan, which racked up a Y11.5 trillion ($107.5 billion) trade deficit last year, paid an average $110 a barrel of oil, and a total of Y27 trillion for its imports of oil, natural gas and coal, or a third of total imports.

To the island nation’s great relief, crude oil prices are now on the decline. Last month, crude oil futures fell 5% to $91 a barrel in New York, and by another 9% so far in October.

According to economists at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, if crude prices stay at their current levels around $82 a barrel, Japan could save Y5 trillion to Y6 trillion in import costs a year. Natural gas prices are linked to those for oil, and tend to move in tandem.

The question remains as to how long before these lower prices will be reflected in the nation’s trade bill. Data for September released Wednesday showed that an 11% jump in the volume of natural gas imports pushed the overall trade balance to a bigger-than-expected Y958 billion trade deficit.

The country paid an average $106 a barrel in September, according to the data. Since most of the oil is delivered by ship from the Middle East, the prices tend to reflect those two months ago.

It takes two-three months before the lower prices are fully reflected in trade data, says Hiroshi Hashimoto, an analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics. The lag reflects the long shipping time of oil and natural gas, as well as the way that purchase prices are determined. Natural gas prices are typically revised just once a month, based on the three-month moving average of crude oil prices, according to Mr. Hashimoto.

For now, Japan’s fuel import costs may be propped up by the weaker yen. But by December, the effects of the weak yen will be more than offset by those of the weaker oil prices, predicts Taro Saito, economist with NLI Research.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

BOJ Sees Bigger Chance of Fall in CPI Below 1% - Real Time Economics - WSJ

• 

• October 23, 2014, 7:49 AM ET

BOJ Sees Bigger Chance of Fall in CPI Below 1%
ByTatsuo Ito and Takashi Nakamichi
The Bank of Japan now sees a much bigger possibility of inflation slipping below 1%, pushed down by falling crude oil prices, according to people familiar with the central bank’s thinking, a development that could rekindle market speculation for additional easing.

While the BOJ recognizes that lower oil prices are ultimately good for the economy as they reduce living costs from imported food to gasoline, the central bank is concerned about their effect over the shorter term.

Lower oil prices will reduce living costs from imported food to gasoline, but the central bank is concerned about their shorter term effect.
Bloomberg News
Viewed from the perspective of the bank’s goal to achieve stable inflation of 2% in about two years, the lower crude prices will likely outweigh recent falls in the yen, slowing down the BOJ’s mission to rid Japan of deflation.

A fall below 1% is now “possible,” said one of the people. Another person cited a “fifty-fifty” chance. The people also signaled that inflation could stay below 1% for more than one month, though one of them said sustained declines after October were unlikely.

Only a few months ago, a drop in price growth below 1% was seen by some economists as a trigger for the BOJ to consider extra stimulus, though the falls in the yen since then largely doused out speculation of imminent easing.

Still, financial markets are closely watching how the consumer price index fares over the coming months to gauge the possibility of whether the central bank will act again. The index, factoring out the effects of an increase in the sales tax in April and volatile perishable food prices, rose 1.1% in August, below its recent peak of 1.5% in April.

Crude oil prices have fallen by more than $20 per barrel over the past few months. The Dubai oil price, the benchmark oil transaction in Asia, fell $3 on Thursday to $82.30 per barrel.

The BOJ sees a $10 drop in crude oil prices weighing on CPI growth by at least 0.1 percentage point, the first person said.

If the recent decline in oil prices is sign of a further slowdown in the global economy, that’s also not good for the Japanese economy just as recent signs point to a pick-up in exports, the people said.

The BOJ is also concerned about the protracted impact of a continued fall in crude oil prices on inflation expectations, something the bank sees as key to eradicating years of deflation, the people said.

Board member Sayuri Shirai argued in a monthly magazine Thursday that various data suggest Japan’s long-term inflation expectations are hovering around 1% compared with around 2% in the U.S. and U.K. For the BOJ to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, those expectations needs to be stabilized at the same level, she said.

Ms. Shirai dissented on the policy board’s view at the previous meeting that inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole.

Many BOJ watchers don’t expect the central bank to take additional stimulus when the policy board meets on Oct. 31. CPI data for September comes out the same day, with the central bank also slated to release its semi-annual forecasts on prices and growth over a three-year time frame.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Asia a bright spot in Japan's dim export picture- Nikkei Asian Review

October 23, 2014 7:00 pm JST
Asia a bright spot in Japan's dim export picture
TOKYO -- Japan's government and central bank are counting on export growth to help the economy overcome April's domestic-demand-dampening consumption tax hike. The latest figures show that despite a weak yen, overall shipments remain sluggish, though business with the rest of Asia is providing some hope.

Exports to the U.S. and Europe are slow. This kept Japan's volume in the July-September quarter almost flat, compared with the previous period, according to data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance.

In September, the volume did rise 2.8% on the year -- the first year-on-year increase in two months. This was largely driven by shipments to other Asian countries, with electronic parts accounting for a big chunk.

Still, exports lack the strength to provide that hoped-for economic fillip.

Record trade deficit

Trade values were skewed by the Japanese currency's tumble in September. That month, the yen went as low as 109 against the dollar.

As a result, shipment value increased 6.9% on the year in September, to 6.383 trillion yen ($59 billion). On the flip side, import costs rose 6.2% to 7.341 trillion yen. This left the country with a 958.3 billion yen trade deficit for the month.

For the April-September fiscal half, the trade deficit came to 5.427 trillion yen, a record for a first half.

Meanwhile, the export volume index compiled by the Cabinet Office edged up only 0.6% on the quarter in the July-September term. The government and Bank of Japan consider this indicator of real exports, which exclude the effects of price changes, a key gauge of the economy's post-tax-hike health.

Where the factories are

One of the main reasons why exports are weak despite the yen's depreciation is that Japanese manufacturers are increasingly opting for overseas production.

The export volume index for Japan's shipments to the U.S. dropped 2.2% on the month in September. The volume of U.S.-bound car shipments has fallen for six straight months, on a year-on-year basis.

Japanese automakers such as Honda Motor and Mazda Motor have shifted some output to Mexico. Even though U.S. auto sales are strong, they lift Japanese exports less than they used to.

The trend toward producing cars in or near target markets is "unlikely to change," even with a weaker yen, said Fumihiko Ike, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.

A generally shaky global economy is only adding to Japan's export woes.

September's export volume index for shipments to the European Union fared even worse, plunging 6.3% on the month. For the whole July-September period, the index fell for the first time in three quarters. Germany, the region's powerhouse, and other economies have been losing steam.

Kiichi Murashima, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets Japan, said global conditions remain unconducive to swift export growth.

Thanks, neighbors

Asia, then, is a rare bright spot. The region -- particularly its electronics industry -- is the reason Japan's overall export volume index posted even that modest 0.6% growth.

The volume index for Asia-bound shipments climbed 4.2% in September from the previous month. It increased 1.8% on the quarter in July through September.

Japanese electronic component makers saw brisk demand for parts for Apple's new iPhones -- released in September -- as well as rival products made by Chinese smartphone makers such as Xiaomi. Six major Japanese electronic parts manufacturers received orders totaling 1.26 trillion yen in the July-September term, a quarterly record.

"Production in Asia is growing as the U.S. economy recovers," said Junichi Makino, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

That may be so, but Japan's government and central bank are now under pressure to rethink their vision of a domestic recovery driven by external demand.

Citigroup Global Markets Japan's Murashima predicts overseas demand will do "almost nothing" to boost real gross domestic product in the July-September quarter. Some other private research institutes estimate that external demand will, at best, bump up real GDP by 0.1 of a percentage point.

(Nikkei)

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

@Nihonjin1051

Sorry for the off-topic question, but what is this site?

http://miya2tara3.seesaa.net/article/407451593.html

Note the comments below the article. I had no idea that so many PDF users were literate in Japanese.

 

[Aepsilons]

@Nihonjin1051

Sorry for the off-topic question, but what is this site?

http://miya2tara3.seesaa.net/article/407451593.html

Note the comments below the article. I had no idea that so many PDF users were literate in Japanese.

Ha ha ! It seems that this thread is a very popular area of interest by many Japanese readers.

 

[Aepsilons]

Japanese company inks $3.6B in charters to ship gas from Cameron Parish facility

MATSUI
said Monday (Sept. 29) that it has signed a $3.6 billion deal to charter five ships to carry liquefied natural gas from a planned Cameron Parish export hub to Japan. The Japanese trading company says it's working to contract for three additional ships to meet expected demand.
Mitsui, one of several Japanese investors teaming with Sempra Energy to build the $10 billion Cameron LNG export project, said the charters start in 2017 and 2018. They extend for 25 years.

The cost of the contracts for the initial five ships totals 400 billion Japanese yen, or more than $3.6 billion, according to a release.

The news comes on the heels of the U.S. Energy Department's Sept. 10 decision to approve Cameron LNG for broad LNG exports. The department must approve exports to countries without free-trade agreements with the United States such as Japan and India.

The facility will be allowed to export up to 1.7 billion cubic feet of domestically produced natural gas overseas for up to two decades.

Given Monday's announcement and the makeup of Cameron LNG's investors, it appears most of that natural gas will be destined for Japan.

Japan faces climbing electricity prices and many there see abundant U.S. natural gas as a way to counter the trend.

Alongside Mitsui & Co., Japanese investors in Cameron LNG include Japan LNG Investment, a joint venture of Mitsubishi Corp. and shipping company Nippon Yusen Kabashiki Kaisha.

Sempra Energy, based in San Diergo, is the majority owner of the project.

In March, Cameron LNG awarded a $6 billion contract to convert its existing Hackberry, La. complex from an import facility to a combination import and export facility. The facility will also have the capability to convert natural gas into liquid form on site.

Cameron LNG expects to be fully operational by 2019.

Japanese company inks $3.6B in charters to ship gas from Cameron Parish facility | NOLA.com

 

[Aepsilons]

‘Japan factory output may recover; inflation to ease’


Japanese factory output probably recovered in September, but only moderately, and consumer price inflation may have dipped, a Reuters poll showed, adding to uncertainty over whether the government will decide to raise the sales tax again next year.

Other data next week will probably show that private spending remained lacklustre, while the unemployment rate may have ticked up last month, according to the poll.

Industrial production probably rose 2.2% in September from the previous month, the poll of 26 economists showed, after a revised 1.9% decline in August. That forecast is way below the 6% rise that manufacturers surveyed by the trade ministry had expected when it released the data for August last month.

“The economy is weak and exports lack momentum. Production activity will probably keep going up and down,” said an economist at Shinkin Central Bank in the Reuters survey.

The trade ministry will release the factory output data on October 29 at 8:50 am (October 28 at 2350 GMT). It will give manufacturers’ output forecasts for October and November at the same time. Separate government data on October 31 is forecast to show that core consumer price inflation slowed in September, indicating the Bank of Japan may need to adopt further easing steps to achieve its 2% inflation target for next fiscal year.

The nationwide core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes volatile prices of fresh fruit, vegetables and seafood, is expected to have risen 3%, the poll showed, after a 3.1% gain in August. Stripping out the impact of a sales tax increase in April, core inflation is expected to be 1%, after 1.1% in August and 1.3% in July.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has to decide this year whether to proceed with another sales tax increase next October, taking it to 10% from 8%. April’s increase from 5% caused the world’s third-biggest economy to shrink an annualised 7.1% in the second quarter from the first. Analysts in a separate Reuters survey forecast the economy would only recover by an annualised 2.9% in the third quarter. Core consumer prices in Tokyo, available a month earlier than the national index, are forecast to rise an annual 2.5% in October, down slightly from 2.6% in September. “Falls in gasoline prices reflecting an international resource price decline will contribute to a slowdown in consumer price inflation,” said an economist at Mitsubishi Research Institute.

Despite recent weak data, the BoJ appears set to resist pressure for more stimulus measures or to accept that its inflation target is unrealistically high at a policy meeting on October 31, according to people familiar with its deliberations.

The trade ministry will announce retail sales for September next Tuesday. The data is expected to show an annual 0.6% rise, up for a third straight month but slower than the 1.2% gain in August.

Household spending is forecast to drop 4.3% in September from a year before, the poll showed, down for a sixth straight month. The jobless rate may have have risen to 3.6% in September, according to the poll, from 3.5% in August. And the jobs-to-applicants ratio will probably be at 1.09, inching down from the 1.10 marked in June, July and August, the highest in 22 years.


‘Japan factory output may recover; inflation to ease’

 

[Aepsilons]

Pacific trade talks progress but gap remains between U.S., Japan

(Reuters) - Negotiations for an ambitious trade pact among Pacific countries made significant progress over the weekend but there is still a gap between Japan and the United States over market access and other hurdles, trade representatives said on Monday.

The 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is central to President Barack Obama's policy of expanding the U.S. presence in Asia and the president has expressed hopes of concluding a deal by the end of the year.

But while all sides hailed the progress made during the latest round of talks, no breakthrough was forthcoming on the thorniest questions.

"There is no prospect for an agreement on market access (between Japan and the United States) at the moment," Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari told a news conference in Sydney.

"I expect we will reach results that satisfy both (countries)," he said, adding they would hold further talks.

An agreement between Tokyo and Washington is crucial to securing the broader pact as other partners are reluctant to commit until they see how those two resolve their differences, particularly over access to each other's markets in sectors such as agriculture and automobiles.

Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb, who hosted the meeting, said the shape of an "ambitious, comprehensive, high-standard and balanced deal" was forming.

"There is a real sense that we are within reach of the finish line and the prize does look very attractive," Robb said, describing the negotiations as at the "compromise stage".

"We are seeing a preparedness to make some of the difficult decisions. This includes some of the key issues that we've been circling for a long time in the whole IP (intellectual property) area and market access and state-owned enterprises and other areas."

The United States insists that Japan should lower barriers to agricultural imports, but Japan wants to protect sensitive products, including pork, beef, dairy and sugar.

U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said that by definition the issues left at the end of any negotiation are those that are the most difficult to solve.

"We certainly have outstanding issues with Japan on market access - on agriculture, on autos and we are not done yet," he told Reuters.

"And while we are making progress, we are not at a satisfactory resolution yet and that's why the work is going to continue."

ANTI-TRADE AGENDA?

Other major outstanding issues include intellectual property rights, particularly on products such as pharmaceuticals, environmental protection and country-specific issues around state-owned enterprises.

Opposition over those issues was visible in Australia, with anti-TPP protesters gathering on Saturday outside the hotel in Sydney where the negotiations were taking place.

Concerns that the agreement would help to drive up pharmaceutical prices must be taken as seriously as any potential trade benefits, Australian Medical Association President Brian Owler said on Sunday.

"I think it's very important that the interests of the Australian government but also of patients and individual consumers in Australia are protected through trade agreements," he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

But Robb dismissed those concerns and similar worries that provisions for investor-state dispute settlement, or ISDS, in the agreement could see Australian laws such as its tobacco packaging legislation overturned by global business giants.

"The fact is that for 30 years now Australia has progressively engaged with now 28 countries with investment agreements which include an ISDS ... and the sun is still coming up every morning," Robb told reporters.

"I think a lot of the statements that have certainly been made in Australia amount to deliberate scaremongering - not all of them, but a lot of them amount to deliberate scaremongering by those who have fundamentally an anti-trade agenda."


Pacific trade talks progress but gap remains between U.S., Japan | Reuters

 

[Aepsilons]

Israel Chemicals selling sections to Japanese giant


Just days after Toyota ran a hackathon in Israel – the first ever tech event being held by a large Japanese corporation in Israel – another Japanese conglomerate is entering into a deal with an Israeli firm. Kurita Water Industries Ltd., Japan’s leading water treatment company in the industrial field, announced that it was acquiring the APW (aluminum, paper chemicals, and water treatment) business units of Israel Chemicals (ICL). The deal is worth €250 million, the companies said.



The sale fits in with both companies’ strategies, they said. Kurita, which is seeking to expand overseas, will acquire the already functioning units of ICL, mostly in Germany, while Israel Chemicals, which has been seeking to reduce its footprint in non-core businesses – in part in order to comply with new laws in Israel requiring that large corporations divest part of their holdings – found a buyer that will help the company with its “Next Step Forward” strategy, launched late last year. The strategy calls for ICL to “divest its non-core businesses to focus on its core operations in the agriculture, food and engineered materials markets and to optimize its positioning in those markets,” ICL said.

Read more: Israel Chemicals selling sections to Japanese giant | The Times of Israel Israel Chemicals selling sections to Japanese giant | The Times of Israel

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Last Chance for Japan? by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate


BUSINESS & FINANCE

STEPHEN S. ROACH
Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of the new book Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

OCT 28, 2014
Last Chance for Japan?
NEW HAVEN – Japan is the petri dish for the struggle against the secular stagnation that is now gripping most major developed economies. And, notwithstanding all of the fanfare surrounding “Abenomics,” Japan’s economy remains moribund. In the six quarters of Shinzo Abe’s latest stint as prime minister, annualized real GDP growth has averaged just 1.4% – up only slightly from the anemic post-1992 average of 1%.

Abenomics, with its potentially powerful combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus, coupled with a wide array of structural reforms, was supposed to end Japan’s “lost decades.” All three “arrows” of the strategy were to be aimed at freeing the economy from a 15-year deflationary quagmire.

Unfortunately, not all of the arrows have been soaring in flight. The Bank of Japan seems well on its way to delivering on the first one – embracing what it calls quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE). Relative to GDP, the BOJ’s monetary-policy gambit could actually far outstrip the efforts of America’s Federal Reserve.

But the flight of the other two arrows is shaky, at best. In recent days, Abe has raised serious questions about proceeding with the second phase of a previously legislated consumer-tax hike that has long been viewed as the linchpin of Japan’s debt-consolidation strategy. Abe has flinched because the economy remains weak, posing renewed risks of a deflationary relapse. Meanwhile, the third arrow of structural reforms – especially tax, education, and immigration reforms – is nowhere near its target.

Abenomics, one might conclude, is basically a Japanese version of the failed policy combination deployed in the United States and Europe: massive unconventional liquidity injections by central banks (with the European Central Bank apparently now poised to follow the Fed), but little in the way of fundamental fiscal and structural reforms. The political expedience of the short-term monetary fix has triumphed once again.

Such a gamble is especially problematic for Japan. With an aging – and now declining – working-age population, it has limited scope for reviving growth. Japan must either squeeze more out of its existing workforce by boosting productivity, or uncover new sources of demand at home or abroad.

At home, that could mean adding workers, either by boosting female participation in the work force, which, at 63%, is among the lowest in the developed world, or relaxing immigration restrictions. Unfortunately, there has been little progress on either front. Moreover, even if the political will to launch third-arrow structural reforms were suddenly to strengthen – a dubious proposition – any productivity payback would most likely take a long time to materialize.

That leaves external demand, which underscores what is perhaps Abenomics’ most serious strategic flaw: It does not take into consideration some of the biggest changes that are likely to occur in the global economy. That is a great pity, because Japan is well positioned to take advantage of one of the most powerful global trends – the coming rebalancing of the Chinese and US economies.

China appears to be more committed to restructuring than the US – at least for the foreseeable future. Its Third Plenum reforms provide a cohesive framework for a pro-consumption transformation. Though America currently remains intent on resurrecting a tired growth model, there is good reason to hope that it, too, will eventually rebalance.

Japan cannot afford to squander these opportunities. As the main driver of Chinese growth shifts from external to domestic demand, who could benefit more than Japanese exporters? China is already Japan’s largest export market, leaving it ideally situated to capture additional market share in the coming surge of Chinese demand for consumer products and services.

Likewise, Japan stands to benefit from its technological prowess in environmental remediation – an urgent priority for China in the years ahead. Japan already has great expertise in many of the solutions to some of China’s toughest problems.

Japan is also likely to gain from a long-overdue rebalancing of the US economy. A shift in the US – from excessive consumption of goods largely sourced in low-wage developing countries to the capital equipment that an increasingly investment-led economy will require – would play to Japan’s greatest strengths. As a global leader in sophisticated machinery and the earth-moving equipment needed for infrastructure investment, Japan should be able to to seize these opportunities.

In looking to external demand, Japan should not lose sight of its earlier achievements. In the 1970s and 1980s, Japan was the envy of the world, owing to an all-powerful export machine that tapped the demand of a rapidly growing global economy. “Japan, Inc.” still has a good institutional memory of what it takes to draw support from external demand.

It is time to recapture that memory. Failure to do so would leave Japan, the world’s third largest economy, at risk of being further marginalized by transformations in the world’s two largest, the US and China.

There is one obvious and important caveat: Poor Sino-Japanese relations, owing to unresolved historical grievances, could prevent Japan from realizing the economic benefits implied by China’s economic rebalancing.

The interplay between economics and politics lies at the heart of the rise and fall of great powers. In a rapidly changing world, underscored by likely shifts in the economic structure of China and the US, Japan cannot afford to lose sight of that fact. Just as the US and China have much to gain by transforming their economies, Japan is running out of time. In the grip of two lost decades and counting, this could be Japan’s last chance.

Last Chance for Japan? by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate


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