Is it spilling over?

[Leviza]

Dear Friend we are not weak, we are civilised. We let your 90,000 soldiers go scot free, we could have occupied your country easily, we dint do. Old Afghan Warlord you mean? you mean Ghory, Ghaznavy? mosquitos who come in the night, loot and escape before retribution arrives. How would you treat a mosquito?As i said before, Arabs only conqered Pakistan, not India and for good reason, just like Alexander or anyone else. We dont have issues with anyone.We are the Indians, a noble peoples.

Indians and Nobel word doesn’t t go together

first of all the Muslims didn’t got Pakistan only , you skipped 1000s of years of Muslim rules for your fake comment lol

Even in 71 you were no way near west Pakistan at all , now time have changed
Remember last year 27th Feb ?

you are as fake as your comment
Enjoy these time under modi as it’s a very short time for u to enjoy

 

[StormBreaker]

The ThridWay.... we will discuss it in due time!


Anyhow, is there corollation between the collapse of oil price and the Arab Revolt against Hindutva?

My sense is that one of the Actor... BigActor... in the Game of Chicken as sanctioned the go ahead as well...combined with socio-economic/local employment issues that @StormBreaker highlighted....

Somehow, Fat Lady isn't Singing yet... why @Blacklight

So far, the good Indians are in it-wasn't-me-mode in GCC .... but that might be enough....

O I SEE ... isn't to be seen anywhere.... and our born-dead-diplomacy is wearing a mask for KhooniVirus as well.

Odd. Odd. Odd!

That is what I am trying to figure out, but my lack of understanding of oil trade restricts me to think of the correlation between India and GCC oil trade.

 

[PakSword]

Let's break it down from pure Arab prespective... How can india effect Arab countries, economically? Labour market? Imports? Iran? Taliban in Afghanistan? I don't see another factor there.. so if it's because of some tension between arabs and India; it has to be along those factors.

If we further break it down, taliban and Iran factor is pretty much neutralized vis a vis India. Economic front can be one factor and Labour market...

But if the factors are actually defined by US and it's regional goals post covid, that's where it gets interesting. How i see is that US is gonna take gloves off after the pandemic. Idk what are the eventual goals, but if it's about that then i can see the pressure build-up via GCC on India.

As far as oil is concerned, China remains the biggest market for oil consumption. Economically GCC isn't doing well and it can be that they want to get rid of major chunk of Indian diaspora in GCC and they are finding excuse. But idk if it's that simple, they don't need to mess up the relations with India for that, all they need is tell that economy isn't doing well and lay off labourers but i don't think "labour" is the factor it's rather about the bigger investors of India in GCC.. they are the target then.

From that perspective look at this tweet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1254416703200649216

This is a major indian investor in GCC, they run supermarket business, quite successful one. And here they are being targeted for donating 5 crore to India.... There is a corporate factor for sure... @Mangus Ortus Novem

Again from the factors i mentioned, Iran, Afghanistan, labour market all are no big reason to put future relations at stake with one of the biggest consumer market... So in terms of Arab-india game, only thing that comes out is corporate... there they can slash them off with connection to hindutva, but i don't think it's regarding the oil dip rather they found some bigger game of corporate India in GCC... Again if it's about India- Arab thing only.

Interesting thing is that Lulu hypermarket in owned by an Indian Muslim.
It's kind of a bhatta to Indian government to stop persecuting Indian Muslims.

 

[Ace of Spades]

Interesting thing is that Lulu hypermarket in owned by an Indian Muslim.
It's kind of a bhatta to Indian government to stop persecuting Indian Muslims.

Indeed, so it means it's not hindu muslim thing, from pure arab perspective. Otherwise they won't object to lulu's donation to India. But they are rather linking it with hindutva. Interesting...

But the litmus test for all this whether it's Arab-India thing or West-india thing is to see in upcoming days if Qatar gets involved or not... So far i haven't seen a single statement from qatar. May be i missed it, but i think they haven't said anything otherwise you will see it all over Al-jazeera. If they get involved then it's pretty obvious that it's US-India thing and they are trying to put pressure on them via GCC. But if the usual suspects who usually give statement of behalf of Saudia only keep issuing statements, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE then it's GCC-India thing. And need to be monitored accordingly. @PakSword @Mangus Ortus Novem

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

@Ace of Spades @PakSword @StormBreaker @Blacklight @masterchief_mirza

Let us take stock what we have before us.... we pause all speculations...because that might come from our bias or subconcious desired outcome...clouding our thinking hence judgement.

What we have for now are data points.

We DONT know the Vectors creating those data points... Hence, at least I am very hesitant to model it.

We have some princess from UAE tweet...then a second tweet kinda.... balming one.

We have some GCC men/journoz tweeting.

We have ..if I am not mistaken... so scholar or two also tweeted.

We have protest tweet from an Arab Jurno when some editor in Dubai got fancy threats from RSS Terrorists...about his daughters as well.

What else do we have?

WE have Al Jazeera reporting on IoJK and Pogrom against Muslims of MaqboozaDelhi.... but this one is also covered by international press....

Do we have data points from other GCC press/print/electronic condemning/portesting the above mentioned events?

A two years old tweet from BJP parlimentarian regarding Arab women got noticed by someone and that person tweeted his/her outrage.

We have data point of Scamismo of $7+ Bln of the good Indians in UAE ...and they ran to India...

We have also a data point of PMIK called to be told not to go to KL...which he obliged.

We also have a data point of Modi recieving award from Bahrain I believe post paper annexation of IoJK....

Some information regarding social unease with Indians has been provided by some posters.... also regarding employment issues...

We have also a data point where UAE signed for multibillion FooldCorridor with India.... and UAE Amb. in India saying that IoJK is India's internal matter.

GCC as whole remain aloof to IoJK issue. Data point... no O I SEE on IOJK till date...

Besides India has Strategic Relations with all GCC... edging closer to defence as well....

A lot of capital flight from India goes through GCC.... data point. Ditto for Pak.

Kuwait parliment passing a resolution is a data point.

It has callled on all muslims/mulsim countries/O I SEE to take up the plight of Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan seriously.

I am leaving out the kind of job monopoly the good Indians have in GCC banking sectore/corporate sector... but an important data point.

We have seen Indian tourists welcomed with Indian flags on Dubai airport post paper annexation of IoJK. Data point.

I am sure I have missed/left many more data points.

What we need to know is the Quality of Tweet i.e. the person who is tweeting and his/her relative weight in the particular country/power hierachy.... number of tweets.... whether there is a progression in hardening of position... or balming is already started.

Data point, lest I forget, ModiRegime is dead as mouse.... one sarkari muslim spoke about how India is a paradise for Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan... and Indian amb. in UAE did some platitudes.

So how come corporate sector comes in? What data points do we have?

Once again I am failing to see one or more Vectors generating these data points....

Had common GGC citizens been tweeting too?
How many and from which countries?

The US factor is interesting angle...but unlike Pakistan.. the US has bigger leverage on India... HB1 and those illegal Indian within the US...pluse tariff can be raised with one OrangeBall tweet... just like the medicine speech... next hour all was opened by the ModiRegime.

So, I find it rather difficult to believe that the US would require GCC to put pressure on India.... I mean a joint resolution by the Senate and Congress is enough for India....

What are the Key Vectors creating these data points?

Without bias, with complete detachment...we need to understand them..before we can form a solid/convincing hypothesis.

With US shale companies belly up... GCC along with Glodman or the likes can buy them for penny to dollar and become oil/gas provider to the US.

The OilGame is very complex game....

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Indeed, so it means it's not hindu muslim thing, from pure arab perspective. Otherwise they won't object to lulu's donation to India. But they are rather linking it with hindutva. Interesting...

But the litmus test for all this whether it's Arab-India thing or West-india thing is to see in upcoming days if Qatar gets involved or not... So far i haven't seen a single statement from qatar. May be i missed it, but i think they haven't said anything otherwise you will see it all over Al-jazeera. If they get involved then it's pretty obvious that it's US-India thing and they are trying to put pressure on them via GCC. But if the usual suspects who usually give statement of behalf of Saudia only keep issuing statements, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE then it's GCC-India thing. And need to be monitored accordingly. @PakSword @Mangus Ortus Novem

Qatar is in a state of detente with other GCC nations.

 

[El Sidd]

You know the data point you are missing?

How much Indian investment is there in the GCC ( Saudi, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar & Bahrain). If you average it out, 70%.Trust me, the Gulf is an extension of Indias civilisation, only that it is ruled by Monarchs and the Gulf has with very cordial and strong relations between Arabs and Indians.

And this is not new, it has always been so, Dilmun(the Gulf of the ancient times) traded with Meluha (Indus Saraswati) of the ancient times. There is a historical connect. Arabs came to Pakistan as conquerors, Arabs came to India via sea as traders.

Pakistanis dont have a clue about the historical India GCC ties.

Gajar Mooli ki tarah Arabi kaatenge. ye afghan turk nahi jo mandir loot kar araam karenge.

 

[Ace of Spades]

The US factor is interesting angle...but unlike Pakistan.. the US has bigger leverage on India... HB1 and those illegal Indian within the US...pluse tariff can be raised with one OrangeBall tweet... just like the medicine speech... next hour all was opened by the ModiRegime.

So, I find it rather difficult to believe that the US would require GCC to put pressure on India.... I mean a joint resolution by the Senate and Congress is enough for India....

From US perspective i don't see it as US vs India but rather US vs the regime not getting in line with their interest. US from purely brute force can't subjugate india, by slashing H1B etc. It will be counterproductive to US-India relations and will rather strengthen the modi regime's narrative in India.

Let's look at this from plain simple regime change perspective. Modi and his goons are not really fitting in to global order structure and may be they are jumping above their weight too much. Not a very ideal situation for US in the long run. India is no more a country that can stay neutral and play at both sides. They've already picked sides and they will be forced to adhere to it. Either modi's regime either some other.

To change RSS controlled government in India, it won't be as simple as they do in say Pakistan. India has very complicated electoral politics. How can you change the mindset of masses? Religion card, race card, language card, and ECONOMICS. Religion, nationalism card is played very well by hindutva RSS in India. They can't be subjugated via that front by putting some more extreme narrative as opposition. And India being hindu majority can't be taken down by supporting opposite religions. And when economy comes in to play and if people starve, they forget nationalism, religion, akhand bharat.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

From US perspective i don't see it as US vs India but rather US vs the regime not getting in line with their interest. US from purely brute force can't subjugate india, by slashing H1B etc. It will be counterproductive to US-India relations.

Let's look at this from plain simple regime change perspective. Modi and his goons are not really fitting in to global order structure and may be they are jumping above their weight too much. Not a very ideal situation for US in the long run. India is no more a country that can stay neutral and play at both sides. They've already picked sides and they will be forced to adhere to it. Either modi's regime either some other.

To change RSS controlled government in India, it won't be as simple as they do in say Pakistan. India has very complicated electoral politics. How can you change the mindset of masses? Religion card, race card, language card, and ECONOMICS. Religion, nationalism card is played very well by hindutva RSS in India. They can't be subjugated via that front by putting some more extreme narrative as opposition. And India being hindu majority can't be taken down by supporting opposite religions. And when economy comes in to play and if people starve, they forget nationalism, religion, akhand bharat.

But the Indian economy was/is already gingerly decending into deep recession..... long before the election as well... not with standing Orangified figures....

Alright.

For now, in absence of verifiable Vectors... we take the US hypothesis....

What does the US want from India?

Labour law reforems?

Foreign ownerhsip reforms?

Privatisation of SOEs?

Land reforms?

The above reforms means a totally different India than we have seen in past 70 years.... it would have no social portection at all.... even less than today...

Legal reforms to cut the red tape?

What does the US wants from India?

And yes, India gets $60+Bln annually from GCC ... which is equal rather more than its defence budget.... so a leverage yes...

Yes, it is also true that the US got India entrenched into GCC post 2001... FACT!

But what does the US want from India?

 

[Ace of Spades]

But the Indian economy was/is already gingerly decending into deep recession..... long before the election as well... not with standing Orangified figures....

Alright.

For now, in absence of verifiable Vectors... we take the US hypothesis....

What does the US want from India?

Labour law reforems?

Foreign ownerhsip reforms?

Privatisation of SOEs?

Land reforms?

The above reforms means a totally different India than we have seen in past 70 years.... it would have no social portection at all.... even less than today...

Legal reforms to cut the red tape?

What does the US wants from India?

And yes, India gets $60+Bln annually from GCC ... which is equal rather more than its defence budget.... so a leverage yes...

Yes, it is also true that the US got India entrenched into GCC post 2001... FACT!

But what does the US want from India?

Difficult question, can only speculate... but purely from my assessment, India will be forced to open the market to US goods, lesser tariffs, privatization of SOEs to US based companies and lesser red tape as you rightly mentioned. If US has to stay a global power house it needs cash flow and big market... Especially post covid era when purchasing power is gonna go down everywhere... It's not in the interest of US to help India becoming too independent, politically and economically. They don't want new china in making...

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

World economy is hoping with bated breath that there will be a "V" shaped recovery... this phrase alone make everything else peripheral. The race to the finish hasn't started yet. Dollar liquidity injection is keeping the veil on prying eyes who would be circumspect on economic recovery. There isn't much to takeaway from nonexistent GCC India spat... it perhaps kind of speaks on Pakistani disposition that is perhaps on hair trigger. Oil glut has created a situation where production capacity is the target not just ceasing production. Which is why Iran, Venezuela or some other producers should be watching their backs. If U.S. shale closes shop then it would be hard if ever the production could be brought back because of all the headwinds in electric vehicles and alternate energy. All of which at the end of the day hurts petrodollar and thus therefore requires an alternative. Because, oil glut may not be an immediate problem for U.S. but a dollar glut is! Especially when they all start heading home. In coming months and years U.S. needs Chinese help in cutting China down to it's size. No one wants to hear it but we maybe edging towards a war or series of undesirable events. A war keeps western supremacy and a big enough war will resolve much of the both explicit and implicit issues... as bad as it may sound.

 

[Ace of Spades]

Its not punching above weight, it is the fact. India and China have outgrown the US, Europe narrative. The western world is uickly descending into the Dark ages while the Eastern World (Specifically, India and China) is ramping things up.This is the reality.US to India is like how Britain was to the US. Britain mentored the US, until the US became too big for Britain, which then was reduced to a small inconsequential state. The US inherited the British Empire per say. US for India is something like that, its sortoff an economic mentor, transferring power, machinery, tech via investment while slowly taking a secondary role. China will take up a role more akin to the USSR with the Russian state not being able to replace population dynamics quick enough.

So, its a glorious new Era for India. Also, India is not restricted to the Akhand Bharat Concept, we beleive in Vaudaiva Kutumbakam( All world our family), so essentially, wherever Indians settle, it is an Indian civilisation.India as a nation has gone beyond the concept of nation with boundaries, it is a civilisation with a far reaching influence all across the world.

Pakistan will slowly understand this..and become a small state bordering and trading with India, and will always be known as an outer Indian state, something like Russia-Georgia dynamics.

Salam

Not yet... India is not there yet, you guys are suffering from delusions of grandeur for now. You aren't there yet hence all these regional games that are starting. It's not gonna be a walk in the park... look at China as an example. Decades ahead of you and still struggling to maintain. You need lots of variable on your side. And if this delusion continues i am afraid your dreams will die in their infancy.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Difficult question, can only speculate... but purely from my assessment, India will be forced to open the market to US goods, lesser tariffs, privatization of SOEs to US based companies and lesser red tape as you rightly mentioned. If US has to stay a global power house it needs cash flow and big market... Especially post covid era when purchasing power is gonna go down everywhere... It's not in the interest of US to help India becoming too independent, politically and economically. They don't want new china in making...

That is corner stone of the US National Security Policy...not to allow any Independent Actor.

China already giving them headaches... and then if you allow India to leverage all the benefits then tripple headache for the CominedWest.

Biggest Market Colony all in one...and pat on the back for good job.

Perhaps...that is the reason for GCC 'outrage'.... afterall GCC is part of the CombinedWest!

It is also possible that social strife is bad for investments or future plans... to open up India ...so the Capital needs predictablity and stability as well.

Could be.... but India hasn't gone very big ticket items to the US yet.... it is trying to balance things with Russia as well... S400 and other stuff.... its nuclear subs are courtesy Russia....

The Greatest Game has begun!

 

[StormBreaker]

But what does the US want from India?

Annex Arab ?

Two actors of your Game can fit into this, Israel and India.

India acts as a termite, Eating from inside, India launches offensive from one side, Israel from the other, Still... One front is left, Arabian sea. Three I’s ? Iran ?

 

[Ace of Spades]

China is only 15 years ahead Infrastructure wise

Not correct, what's your objective assessment in making such claim? Infrastructure is not just roads, but from Industrial complexes, to skyscrapers, to local transport and to all the way to pedestrian roads. India is no where near there. As i said decades behind and if you really wanna look at it rationally, look at it from a third observer perspective. Not as an Indian and you may will see the bigger picture.