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Internal security, situation along Eastern Border, LOC and IOJ&K discussed - CCC at GHQ.

It's not just about the rank, having same staff and all. It's about what a particular person brings to the table.
We had Kiyani before, what did he do apart from bowing to political pressure and paving the way for all corruption? Letting the Americans get away with orchestrating the Osama drama?
If it was not about inividuals and personalities, then why didn't we have the same kind of resurgence which Raheel Shareef brought to the table, and which Bajwa was able to carry forward?

A person is never a machine, he won;t function the same way as another. He brings new ideas, and some times you want to keep things the way they are for a while before transitioning to some one new and trying them out and seeing how it plays.
Why was Khalid Bin Waleed the leader of Muslim expeditions for years? Were there no other able men who had participated in more battles? Who knew the art of war better than him?

Some times when some people are doing something right, you want to keep them and let them do it, instead of opening the doors to a random person and seeing how he performs. And let's be very clear, not all men and not all generals are the same. There are some who win wars, and others who lose them. There are some who stand and fight till the end, and there are some who who give up in the slightest of storms.
And no training, no experience, and no education can take away a person's inherent individuality from him. He/she will remain their own type of a persona.
I like your thoughts.
There are people who will always have issues with any decision taken by Government. They will identify themselves as critical thinkers, insiders with first hand info or philosophers etc. Roll with the flow.
 
Most people dont like his extension. According to circumtance this was a very wise, reasonable and timely decision that was taken for his extension. Nobody knows Kashmir better than General Bajwa.it is not just the extension, but the timing of this extension that is so significant. The extension for 3 years is really important and challenging given our current geopolitical situation.
 
I like your thoughts.
There are people who will always have issues with any decision taken by Government. They will identify themselves as critical thinkers, insiders with first hand info or philosophers etc. Roll with the flow.


There is a difference between toxic negativity and critical thinking. Most of these people who have a problem for every solution. They have unhealed demons from their traumatic childhoods which they need to figure and sort out instead of projecting them in every thing they say and do.
Wanting everything the way we think while being blind to opposing opinion is not critical thinking but caged thinking, or thinking in self projected illusory idea of things. Critical thinking is to be open to both possibilities of something being right as well as being wrong, and giving enough thought to each, without limiting to one possibility until proven as fact.
 
In that case we should've retained Raheel Sharif. I have yet to see a general of his caliber in PA
In Military Operations, starting with strategic planning to deployment of forces in the area, its usually better to have one commander from the word go to the very end. Such a pathway usually yields results. The most experienced officer is the COAS, and his retirement means that his career has now finished and his services are no longer required. Even if he may sit on a decision making panel or as a think tank or as an adviser - he has already lost that power of making any decision.
 
In Military Operations, starting with strategic planning to deployment of forces in the area, its usually better to have one commander from the word go to the very end. Such a pathway usually yields results. The most experienced officer is the COAS, and his retirement means that his career has now finished and his services are no longer required. Even if he may sit on a decision making panel or as a think tank or as an adviser - he has already lost that power of making any decision. He can just give suggestions and throw around ideas. The next COAS now holds all the power and now he has to enact his decision making powers and give orders. In Military planning, a new commander will always have new plans to enact action. He could go enact those decisions on: planning from his MO Dte, changing circumstances (Govt + country + Regional + Military) as time passes, his own experience and his cadre of advisers or merely his gut feeling. In infantry, if a commander says attack from a left, the whole battalion will attack from that direction. In Artillery, calculations (such as trajectory etc) rule the decision/direction for attack. Decisions taken by the COAS can be circumstantial or based on calculations.

I once asked a close associate who worked in his Dte in GHQ, that Bajwa lacks that luster that RS held or other prominent COAS had held in the past. The reply i got was that Bajwa sometimes moves with snail's pace but consolidates every step ensuring that the last decision/action was the building block for the next. Some other officers regard him as the brain behind many military achievements on which he doesn't agree to take credit. Some say that in Feb 2019 incident, he let the CAS take the lead for retaliation against IAF, which a COAS normally doesn't do. He certainly isn't flamboyant as Musharraf or a heart winner like RS.

The statement issued by the government for his extension is "regional security environment". The team (COAS + PM) can remain the same if there is a long term plan that envisions and implements the statement given by the government. It may not be a 1 year plan, it could be a 3 year plan. Some people/members may look at it this way that PM IK is new to the political arena and has arrived to take reins at a time when the country had just started to stabilize mostly due to RS efforts while NS was in power - so IK needs support from the Military, solidly from the current COAS. A different cadre feels that ousting NS and bringing in IK has been achieved due to country's intel agencies, such as ISI. They think it was felt that while RS was throwing in effort to develop the image of Army after it was ruined by both Pervaiz's (Musharraf and kiyani), the civilian leadership was not doing its part in progression of Pakistan and its image. NS and his party was not concerned with Pakistan other than an opportunity to sit in power and make money just like before (90's) - however times had changed and Pakistan was standing in turmoil with enemies from with-in slowly bleeding it, while external enemies had surrounded it like never before. So a new junction of military-civilian leadership was required, both working sincerely for Pakistan. A pair leading both blocks without friction between them. Others may also look at it from Kashmir point of view - that Bajwa has mostly been posted as commander in AJK and CFL/LOC regions and is the best candidate to lead the Army at this point in time if a war erupts over Kashmir which may somehow give an edge and Indian media has also been screaming about this point concerning Bajwa.

This extension seems to be more of IK's plan than Bajwa's. Time will tell if IK has achieved the vision and implemented the plans that he holds by extending tenure of COAS. If there is certainly a plan in place on which IK wants to work together with Bajwa as COAS and hopes that the Duran line issue, internal security matters, Taliban-US issues in Afghanistan, kashmir issue, CPEC generally, foreign relations and other threats faced by Pakistan will get solved, probably three years could be enough to solve one or two if not all. On the contrary- unbiased - yes IK could use this extension as means to fortify his own Government for next 3 years. But in past such reliance on Military commanders have been taken by Bhutto and NS - both ending in disasters.

An uncomfortable development is seen after this decision - the disgruntled marching from KPK and now seen in streets of islamabad. Its very difficult to oust a COAS from his seat, its considered easier to oust a PM. There are many factions inside and abroad who want IK to go and dislike the extension of COAS. Those who say that Extension is a gamble, then a new COAS is a gamble too - either way decision has to be made and a decision has been made.

The Lt Gens who are going to come up will probably get superseded and retire. One might make it to CJSC. Promotions in military is another unique topic. Promotions of brigadier and above become awry at some stage of career. A brigadier destined to be become a sure-shot general, while in the excercise area gets a cardiac arrest, he will never reach general rank. A Major General's staff car goes missing, he is superseded and retired. A promotion criteria like number of staff/war courses comes in, a Major General doesn't reach Lt.Gen rank based on counting in competition with other Major Generals. Nothing is for sure above Brigadier Rank.
Very well explained by Sig, decision to give an extension to Bajwa was done in light of the regional issues being faced by the country. Decision was taken in good faith, now only time will tell if it was a correct one or not.
 
In Military Operations, starting with strategic planning to deployment of forces in the area, its usually better to have one commander from the word go to the very end. Such a pathway usually yields results. The most experienced officer is the COAS, and his retirement means that his career has now finished and his services are no longer required. Even if he may sit on a decision making panel or as a think tank or as an adviser - he has already lost that power of making any decision. He can just give suggestions and throw around ideas. The next COAS now holds all the power and now he has to enact his decision making powers and give orders. In Military planning, a new commander will always have new plans to enact action. He could go enact those decisions on: planning from his MO Dte, changing circumstances (Govt + country + Regional + Military) as time passes, his own experience and his cadre of advisers or merely his gut feeling. In infantry, if a commander says attack from a left, the whole battalion will attack from that direction. In Artillery, calculations (such as trajectory etc) rule the decision/direction for attack. Decisions taken by the COAS can be circumstantial or based on calculations.

I once asked a close associate who worked in his Dte in GHQ, that Bajwa lacks that luster that RS held or other prominent COAS had held in the past. The reply i got was that Bajwa sometimes moves with snail's pace but consolidates every step ensuring that the last decision/action was the building block for the next. Some other officers regard him as the brain behind many military achievements on which he doesn't agree to take credit. Some say that in Feb 2019 incident, he let the CAS take the lead for retaliation against IAF, which a COAS normally doesn't do. He certainly isn't flamboyant as Musharraf or a heart winner like RS.

The statement issued by the government for his extension is "regional security environment". The team (COAS + PM) can remain the same if there is a long term plan that envisions and implements the statement given by the government. It may not be a 1 year plan, it could be a 3 year plan. Some people/members may look at it this way that PM IK is new to the political arena and has arrived to take reins at a time when the country had just started to stabilize mostly due to RS efforts while NS was in power - so IK needs support from the Military, solidly from the current COAS. A different cadre feels that ousting NS and bringing in IK has been achieved due to country's intel agencies, such as ISI. They think it was felt that while RS was throwing in effort to develop the image of Army after it was ruined by both Pervaiz's (Musharraf and kiyani), the civilian leadership was not doing its part in progression of Pakistan and its image. NS and his party was not concerned with Pakistan other than an opportunity to sit in power and make money just like before (90's) - however times had changed and Pakistan was standing in turmoil with enemies from with-in slowly bleeding it, while external enemies had surrounded it like never before. So a new junction of military-civilian leadership was required, both working sincerely for Pakistan. A pair leading both blocks without friction between them. Others may also look at it from Kashmir point of view - that Bajwa has mostly been posted as commander in AJK and CFL/LOC regions and is the best candidate to lead the Army at this point in time if a war erupts over Kashmir which may somehow give an edge and Indian media has also been screaming about this point concerning Bajwa.

This extension seems to be more of IK's plan than Bajwa's. Time will tell if IK has achieved the vision and implemented the plans that he holds by extending tenure of COAS. If there is certainly a plan in place on which IK wants to work together with Bajwa as COAS and hopes that the Duran line issue, internal security matters, Taliban-US issues in Afghanistan, kashmir issue, CPEC generally, foreign relations and other threats faced by Pakistan will get solved, probably three years could be enough to solve one or two if not all. On the contrary- unbiased - yes IK could use this extension as means to fortify his own Government for next 3 years. But in past such reliance on Military commanders have been taken by Bhutto and NS - both ending in disasters.

An uncomfortable development is seen after this decision - the disgruntled marching from KPK and now seen in streets of islamabad. Its very difficult to oust a COAS from his seat, its considered easier to oust a PM. There are many factions inside and abroad who want IK to go and dislike the extension of COAS. Those who say that Extension is a gamble, then a new COAS is a gamble too - either way decision has to be made and a decision has been made.

The Lt Gens who are going to come up will probably get superseded and retire. One might make it to CJSC. Promotions in military is another unique topic. Promotions of brigadier and above become awry at some stage of career. A brigadier destined to be become a sure-shot general, while in the excercise area gets a cardiac arrest, he will never reach general rank. A Major General's staff car goes missing, he is superseded and retired. A promotion criteria like number of staff/war courses comes in, a Major General doesn't reach Lt.Gen rank based on counting in competition with other Major Generals. Nothing is for sure above Brigadier Rank.
Thank you for a very detailed and clear post which has highlighted your perspective. I understand and cannot argue with any of the points you have raised for the very simple reason we do not know truely what the real underlying reasons were. We will have to wait and observe this decision with the prism of time to be able to say whether it was a good or a bad decision. I also understand that this is a special case due to the pressure on the Government from multitude of challanges both internal and External which it faces. My only observation remains that this is a preference of a person over an institution which generally turns out to be a wrong one.
Regards

Kind regards
A
 

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