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INDO-PACIFIC ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
Significance for Bangladesh
by ARM Mutasim Billah | Published: 00:00, Jul 31,2022
— Centre for Strategic and International Studies
UNITED States president Joe Biden initiated the platform named the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework on May 23, 2022 in Tokyo. In a White House press briefing the goal of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework was made clear, ‘We believe that expanding US economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific through vehicles like IPEF is good for America — American workers and businesses as well as for the people in the region.’ The framework is focused on furthering seven themes — trade facilitation, particularly for SMEs; digital economy and technology standards; supply-chain resilience;
decarbonisation and sustainable energy; infrastructure; workers’ standards; and other areas of shared interest. The founding members of Framework are Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.
The IPEF has been introduced at a time when people are facing a deeply polarised world. The Ukraine war has certainly fuelled the ongoing polarisation and hostility between the west and Russia and China. The recent history of the Asia Pacific reveals that the region took several initiatives of multilateral economic cooperation that have not sustained or have remained largely ineffective. Two such organisations are Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation and Trans Pacific Partnership. While the former president of the United States scrapped the Trans Pacific Partnership in 2016, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation has not been able to show its teeth till now. It is widely perceived as annual talk-shows of the leaders of this region. The creation of another grouping in the changed context of regional and international politics and security raises the old question of sustainability and credibility. However, given the new context of rivalries and hostility among the great powers, this group deserves a critical assessment.
Prospects of the framework
THE US-led new grouping called IPEF has added to the fleet of existing nomenclature of multilateral initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region in the recent days. Some of the existing groupings are Indo-Pacific Strategy, Quadrilateral Dialogue, Australia, United Kingdom and United States security alliance. The key objective of these initiatives for the western nations is to create larger unity among the Asian and Indo-Pacific powers to achieve their grand strategic goals in the face of emerging dominance of China. China is also strongly supported by Russia in perceiving new security architecture in the Asia and Pacific region. The prospects and future of the grouping depend on member nations. One can see four different sets of nations have joined the grouping. First, the United States itself is singularly a category to lead the framework. The close allies of the US in the region such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand may be placed in the second category. In the third category, one can see the seven members of ASEAN while the fourth category includes a South Asian country, India.
The categories of the members clearly show that there is a considerable diversity in the framework which must be seen as a challenge for the group. The seven ASEAN members in the framework have not subscribed to any security arrangements that the west has pushed forward, visibly targeting China. They have significant dependence on China and Russia. During the Ukraine war, India has shown its independent and autonomous stance on the global issues, and that is a significant factor given the recent proximity between India and the west through different bilateral and multilateral security arrangements.
Despite the differences in their individual foreign policy and economic orientations, the members of the IPEF have demonstrated that there is a need for collective platform to face rising economic and financial clout of China. For some members, it provides another option to diversify their opportunities and perhaps, in bargaining with China. Here lies the prospect of this framework. Since it focuses on economic cooperation, for that matter geo-economics, member nations may show their interests in developing concrete initiatives for multilateral cooperation. Still, it is just the beginning and history says that nation-states in the age of capitalism take mercantilist approaches to promote their national interests. So, one has to wait and see how the grouping would take shape in the days ahead.
Benefits of joining the framework
AS THE areas of cooperation show, the framework has pinpointed economic and financial issues to complement the Indo-Pacific Strategy. The economic benefits are largely assumed at this stage since it is a new group loosely framed through a declaration. It has not announced any concrete institutional structure. The benefits might be an access to combined financing of developed countries under the framework; and access to a transcontinental and a large market for further growth; it will increase foreign direct investment in Bangladesh; linking with greater connectivity initiatives; strengthening bilateral economic and strategic partnership; lessening or rejecting the US and western pressure of domestic intervention; closer relations with the QUAD and IPS members such as Japan and Australia; and enhanced support for the Rohingya crisis.
Risks of joining the framework
THE risks of joining the framework are immediate since it is largely conceived as a countervailing multilateral forum to offset the Belt and Road Initiative, declared by China. The risks might include the possibility of consuming the fate of Trans Pacific Partnership, scrapped by the former US president Donald Trump; uncertainty in its effectiveness due to diverse categories of membership among 13 founding members; part of containment against China that only suits strategic goals of the west and its security allies; instrument of creating domestic pressure in the name of maintaining labour and human rights standards; and facing competition within the group from countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, India and Malaysia.
Should Bangladesh join the initiative?
BANGLADESH has not been included in the framework although both Bangladesh and the United States have been discussing this issue in different bilateral talks, including Security Dialogue. It is reported that the United States was interested to include Bangladesh in the framework. However, the final shape of the IPEF was announced with 13 members where Bangladesh is absent. It is a critical strategic choice whether Bangladesh would join the group, if it is invited. As the costs and benefits of inclusion in the framework have been indicated above, it is a huge dilemma for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh certainly will gain while, perhaps, it would lose more. Some observations about the grouping may be mentioned to understand Bangladesh’s position. Unlike several members of the IPEF, Bangladesh has vital and substantive economic and strategic engagements with China and Russia; the possibility of getting financial and economic support from the IPEF is low and uncertain for two key reasons; lack of real capability of the group and attachment of conditions; there is also a likelihood of early demise or to remain as a ceremonial entity given the past experiences of APEC, the TPP and the RCEP; the United States has initiated the framework as part of global polarisation between the west and its allies and China and Russia and their friends; the main players of the framework may have considered diplomatic and strategic factors in disguise of economic framework; and Bangladesh’s inclusion may curtail a substantive degree of its autonomy and freedom in manoeuvring choices in strategic moves and foreign policy of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh needs not to rush or be overenthusiastic about joining the framework. Considering some diplomatic and political gains Bangladesh may opt for delayed/protracted negotiations with the US for its inclusion so that we can avoid diplomatic pressure. Bangladesh may attach its own conditions for joining in line with our national strategic interests. Bangladesh should closely monitor the developments centring on the IPEF.
ARM Mutasim Billah is a columnist.
Significance for Bangladesh
UNITED States president Joe Biden initiated the platform named the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework on May 23, 2022 in Tokyo. In a White House press briefing...
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