India’s insufferable outlook on CPEC: A critical appraisal

[Thanatos]

INDIA’S constant opposition towards CPEC would not be affecting this Project at all. Simultaneously, this project is not prohibiting India to be the part of CPEC being an inclusive project. This is purely a development project and has no excuse to restrain the development in the disputed areas as India is casting repeatedly its stance that CPEC passes through the disputed area and is a serious concern for India. It may intentionally does not want to raise the standards of living of the masses of those areas. CPEC is a flagship project of China’s One Belt One Road Initiative which includes more than 65 countries of the world and it is not like a Multilateral Export Control Regime “an international body that states use to organize their national export control systems”/regime like NSG in which a consensus of the member countries is needed for the new developments. For example if one member country is not giving its consensus for any development, the whole development will be halted. Instead CPEC project is an open and inclusive project and inviting other countries to invest for the mutual benefit and shared prosperity of the respective regions. Pakistan and China are working on the economic cooperative initiative is backed by the UN and several other countries of the world adding it is not directed against any third party. There is no universal justification of India’s claim over the disputed territories on ground because there are such examples where the developmental work has been done such as last year Philippines released photographs of construction of structures by Chinese vessels in disputed Scarborough Shoal in South China Sea during ASEAN Summit in Vientiane. India beefed up its concerns against Chinese sponsored China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Will the disputes between or among countries obstruct the overall development of the region and the populace residing in those areas? Recently on 27th January, 2018 India’s Ambassador to China Mr. Gautam Bambawale’s statement “Beijing should pay serious attention to New Delhi’s concerns about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and not ignore them. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Indian-claimed territory (Azad Kashmir) and hence violates our territorial integrity. This is a major problem for us” is the insufferable stance on CPEC. Since the introduction of this project, these kinds of statement have been uproaring on different international or national forums from India’s side. Despite these stern statements, the project has been progressing very well. Moreover, the US has also put its weight behind India by saying that it too believes the route of the Corridor passes through a disputed territory — a reference to Northern areas of Pakistan. The statement has come at a time when Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was in Washington and held series of talks with the US officials to normalize the tense relations. This new stance has started another debate and is undoubtedly going to further damage the bilateral ties, as it is profusely obvious now that the US envisions a greater role for India in the region.

Apart from the vicious existence of terrorism in South Asia, the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India is also the biggest hindrance for any possibility of a large scale investment coming into the region. India should be on the front line to negotiate with Pakistan to resolve this conflict as a solution to the concern on CPEC to promote prosperity and development in that area because the northern part of India bordering Pakistan and Indian-occupied Kashmir lacks the basic infrastructure.

India’s perceived sense of insecurity regarding this project is that through CPEC the sources and standards of livelihood of the people living in Pakistan’s side of Kashmir would be raised. This is a serious anxiety in India as this hopeful situation presents a Pakistan’s GB stark contrast to the situation in Indian occupied Kashmir, where the occupation forces have unleashed a reign of terror against innocent Kashmiris for committing the ‘sin’ of demanding legitimate socio-political rights.

China would not give up CPEC just because of mere Indian protests. The Indian government will not cease its developmental activities in Arunachal Pradesh either. But is it not important to respect the voices of communities residing in disputed territories as a priority rather than following the institutional norms in developmental activities? From inter-governmental institutions like ADB/World Bank to each country sharing disputed territories like India or China or Pakistan, it is foremost important to stand up with rights to development of communities. Otherwise, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) cannot be considered ‘universal’. Indians are only good in massacring its own minority races like Sikhs and Muslims.

In a nutshell, India’s regional aspirations to contain China’s growing regional influence and conveying such messages to China will not carry sufficient weightage in the long run to cut China’s commitment towards CPEC. India has some faulted security relations with China even if there is no CPEC. The only thing is that India being the major country of the region should play its influential part towards the development of the region making peace with the neighbouring states.

Lastly, if India is striving hard by investing in Chabahar Port and other initiatives, such as its support to 116 influential projects in 31 provinces in Afghanistan, are aimed to undercut CPEC and increase India’s hold in Kabul then why it is protesting the developments in the disputed areas through which CPEC passes. These 116 India-sponsored projects will cover hydropower construction, farmland water conservation projects and renewable energy among others that will directly affect life of the common people of Afghanistan. Likewise through CPEC the regional development is possible if India look at this project through the prism of development.

and benefits among provinces. This Council of Common Interest has done a great job in the past in resolving difference of opinion among provinces. So there is not a remote possibility of any hurdle from any side within Pakistan about successful implementation of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. In fact our national policy makers should take care of the benefits of all the provinces as each province is the part of Pakistan. Likewise security of CPEC will remain prime responsibility of Armed Forces of Pakistan throughout.

 

[ghauri05]

I was hearing Shashi Thror's argument about Kashmir,in which he said "india has something that Pak wants, but Pak has nothing that india wants"

I disagree with notion, I believe, given the indian ambitions regarding economy, Pak has a perfect platform/tool for india..and that is CPEC

I believe if Pak and india really want to solve Kashmir peacefully, the only quid pro co that can happen is,Kashmir for all the trading routes through Pak.

India can get access to Afghanistan,Iran,Central Asian states(Everyone knows that Chahbhaar port is not working out for india and it's not a long term solution) and also a very short route to one of the biggest trading partner Russia via Azad Kashmir-China-Russia route....this will help india exports and energy requirements hugely in favor of indian economy which can then actually bring the 2 digit growth for india...and presumably Kashmir issue resolved through this bargain...Both Pak and india will have huge budget surplus saved from defnse expenditures

Many of readers,may think that it's day dreaming on my part...but i can bet u that there is no other alternative available to solve kashmir issue peacefully...LOC si not an acceptable solution for Pak..and independant kashmir is not in anyone's favor...So it will be a win-win situation for both..Pak wants Kashmir and india wants a global player status...which it still hasn't got instead of all these economic development and western support..india is still a third world country with numerous flaws.

So Pak should make india see this angle of bargain to install sustainable peace in the region.Otherwise,the solution is only WAR..n i don't think ..any of the 2 countries is willing to opt for it now

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

We got a Danda for India and they have lot of room for its placement

 

[Clutch]

India’s derision of CPEC

The only option for India is to resolve its disputes with Pakistan through dialogue and join CPEC to benefit from its economic fruits rather than opposing it

India, which has been opposed to China since it received a drubbing from it in the 1962 Sino-Indian War, spares no stone unturned to denigrate it.

Pakistan was never accepted as a sovereign state by India and every machination in the Chanakyan book on guile and deceit has been tried out to subjugate Pakistan. India had believed that following the severance of its eastern wing in 1971, West Pakistan too would collapse but that did not happen. On the contrary Pakistan prospered and came out of the nuclear closet in 1998.

The commencement of the global war on terror by the US and coalition forces in Afghanistan in 2001, provided India a ray of hope to disparage its western neighbour and it started a propaganda campaign that Pakistan was an epicentre of terrorism in the region.

To divert world attention towards Pakistan and presenting it as a sponsor of terrorism, India even went to the extent of staging a false flag operation in the shape of an attack on its own parliament building and blaming Pakistan for it. Using the attack as a plea, India amassed its troops menacingly on the Pakistan border. The US refused to be side-tracked from its mission in Afghanistan and forced India to withdraw its troops.

After the going got tough for the US and its allies in Afghanistan, Washington turned on Pakistan and entered into a strategic alliance with India.

China’s emergence as an economic power was ringing alarm bells in US State Department and it was willing to prop up India as a bulwark to check China. Indians jumped on the opportunity as they had two clear objectives. Firstly to influence the US and European powers that Pakistan be penalised to undermine its nuclear capability and give a clear edge to India in South Asia. Secondly, by trying to equate the indigenous freedom struggle of the Kashmiris as terrorism; India wanted that the western countries should not support the resolution of the Kashmir dispute.

After becoming a strategic partner of the US and having been declared by the US as a lynchpin of its Asia pivot policy, aimed at containing rising China, India received a boost. In this backdrop, in the changed post-withdrawal scenario (from Afghanistan), India had become further encouraged with the US tilt in favour of India over Pakistan in South Asia.

If India believes that the US will continue to provide it all the required strategic military support to make it a major world power and prefer it over Pakistan in South Asia even if it refuses to cooperate with the US in its Asia pivot strategy to limit Chinese and Russian influence in Asia, it is mistaken

The 2015 visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Islamabad and the launch of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) threw cold water on Indian plans to destabilise Pakistan as CPEC would transform Pakistan’s economy in a major way.

The projected economic benefits of CPEC to Pakistan and its enhanced strategic partnership with China, forced Indian propaganda campaigners to target CPEC along with diplomatically isolating Pakistan to deny CPEC economic and strategic advantages to Pakistan and China. Instead of choosing to join this mega project to reap related economic benefits for its people, India opted to belittling it.

A multi-pronged strategy was evolved by India. Firstly to vilify CPEC, secondly to sabotage it and thirdly to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar port and link it with Afghanistan to offer an alternate to Afghanistan as well as Central Asian States in lieu of Gwadar Port.

India fails to take into cognisance that ultimately economies of scale will decide about the success of the ports, as distance from Mumbai to Chabahar is 1800 kilometers, and from Chabahar to Kabul it is 1851kilometer, whereas distance from Gwadar to Kabul is 450 kilometer.

If India believes that the US will continue to provide it all the required strategic military support to make it a major world power and prefer it over Pakistan in South Asia even if it refuses to cooperate with the US in its Asia pivot strategy to limit Chinese and Russian influence in Asia, it is mistaken. Foreign relations are based on ethnocentrism. The US realises that India continues to pursue its independent foreign policy, as it did by not supporting the US against Russia over Ukraine crises, in its sanctions against Iran and in the Syrian conflict.

In the long run such a one sided game cannot be sustained. Even if India does become a part of the Asia pivot policy of the US, for peace in Afghanistan the US will continue to maintain good relations with Pakistan as well and India will not be able to isolate Pakistan. This is more so when China and Pakistan are now deeply connected through the CPEC project and Russia is aspiring to build good relations with Pakistan to cooperate on Afghanistan.

Besides Russia, Iran and UK, more and more countries are signing up for CPEC thus India will fail in deriding CPEC. The only option for India is to resolve its outstanding disputes with Pakistan through dialogue and join the CPEC to reap connected economic benefits rather than opposing it.

The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China

Published in Daily Times, March 10th 2018.