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India crossed 800 million mobile subscribers in March 2011. Or did it? The reality is very different: 501 million users. Here's how
Ibrahim Ahmad & Ritu Singh
Monday, May 02, 2011
The story continues....and India once again takes pride in adding another 100 mn mobile subscribers to its kitty and crossing yet another milestone of 800 mn subscribers in a total population of 1.2 bn. According to the data released by Trai, the total wireless subscriber base of India at the end of March 2011 was 811.59 mn.
It certainly calls for celebration. Or does it? Are we sure that there are 812 mn mobile subscribers in India now?
The ground reality, which comes out starkly from TRAI's own data and some market data, (see table) tells a different story: of 500 mn, not 800 mn, mobile subscribers.
The VLR Does Not Lie
Trai's disclosure of the number of active wireless subscribers based on a visitor location register (VLR) number of 574 mn, out of a total of 812 mn subscribers in March 2011, provides a clearer view of the subscriber number and other key operating indicators such as tele-density.
What the above VLR figure says is that India had 574 mn active mobile numbers by March end (2011), and not 812 mn. The rest-the difference of 238 mn between the two numbers-are the inactive numbers, those who have lapsed because they are past their validity and are in the grace period, or may be postpaid subscriptions that have been blocked for non-payment.
The VLR is an accurate, current snapshot. It is a temporary database of subscribers who have roamed into the particular area which it serves. Each base station in the network is served by exactly one VLR, hence a subscriber cannot be present in more than one VLR at a time. The VLR system keeps track of active users in any particular service area, and thus is the right method to calculate the number of active users.
Even so, these are all subscriptions-that is, mobile numbers. That is not the same thing as distinct users. If someone has two SIMs, he is being counted twice in all these numbers.
Obviously, 800 mn subscriptions does not mean 800 mn users, says Kuldeep Goyal, ex-CMD, BSNL. He believes the actual number of active mobile phone users would be in the 450-500 mn range, and emphasizes that the 800 mn figure is not a correct picture.
You get the current VLR figure from Trai, which gives the number of actual active users, for instance 560 mn for February 2011. From that VLR figure, you can reduce another 15% or more as multiple SIM cards, he adds.
VLR data shows the total active subscribers in the VLR on the last working day of a particular month.
To compute India's tele-density on the basis of 800 mn numbers is misleading, says Deepak Maheshwari, telecom market expert and director, corporate affairs, Microsoft. We should go with the VLR figure [of 574 mn]. Even the VLR figure indicates the peak number. If we take the VLR average, then the number could be even smaller.
The Multi-SIM Phenomenon
How many Indians use more than one SIM card?
Comprehensive data on that is hard to come by, but we have some good pointers.
Data from CyberMedia Research (CMR) shows that nearly 45% of all mobile Handsets shipped in the India market during the October-December 2010 quarter were dual- or triple-SIM phones.
India is a unique telecom market in terms of subscription, more than 92% of users being in the pre-paid category. Most of them change their mobile numbers frequently, drawn by better tariff plans offered by competing telcos. That leads to multiple SIMs with many subscribers.
Moreover, 'the churn of SIMs' between different operators (due to unsurrendered but inactive SIM) ends up creating an apparent, illusory increase in either 'active subscription' or the 'subscriber base'.
India's Mobile Ghosts
Ibrahim Ahmad & Ritu Singh
Monday, May 02, 2011
The story continues....and India once again takes pride in adding another 100 mn mobile subscribers to its kitty and crossing yet another milestone of 800 mn subscribers in a total population of 1.2 bn. According to the data released by Trai, the total wireless subscriber base of India at the end of March 2011 was 811.59 mn.
It certainly calls for celebration. Or does it? Are we sure that there are 812 mn mobile subscribers in India now?
The ground reality, which comes out starkly from TRAI's own data and some market data, (see table) tells a different story: of 500 mn, not 800 mn, mobile subscribers.
The VLR Does Not Lie
Trai's disclosure of the number of active wireless subscribers based on a visitor location register (VLR) number of 574 mn, out of a total of 812 mn subscribers in March 2011, provides a clearer view of the subscriber number and other key operating indicators such as tele-density.
What the above VLR figure says is that India had 574 mn active mobile numbers by March end (2011), and not 812 mn. The rest-the difference of 238 mn between the two numbers-are the inactive numbers, those who have lapsed because they are past their validity and are in the grace period, or may be postpaid subscriptions that have been blocked for non-payment.
The VLR is an accurate, current snapshot. It is a temporary database of subscribers who have roamed into the particular area which it serves. Each base station in the network is served by exactly one VLR, hence a subscriber cannot be present in more than one VLR at a time. The VLR system keeps track of active users in any particular service area, and thus is the right method to calculate the number of active users.
Even so, these are all subscriptions-that is, mobile numbers. That is not the same thing as distinct users. If someone has two SIMs, he is being counted twice in all these numbers.
Obviously, 800 mn subscriptions does not mean 800 mn users, says Kuldeep Goyal, ex-CMD, BSNL. He believes the actual number of active mobile phone users would be in the 450-500 mn range, and emphasizes that the 800 mn figure is not a correct picture.
You get the current VLR figure from Trai, which gives the number of actual active users, for instance 560 mn for February 2011. From that VLR figure, you can reduce another 15% or more as multiple SIM cards, he adds.
VLR data shows the total active subscribers in the VLR on the last working day of a particular month.
To compute India's tele-density on the basis of 800 mn numbers is misleading, says Deepak Maheshwari, telecom market expert and director, corporate affairs, Microsoft. We should go with the VLR figure [of 574 mn]. Even the VLR figure indicates the peak number. If we take the VLR average, then the number could be even smaller.
The Multi-SIM Phenomenon
How many Indians use more than one SIM card?
Comprehensive data on that is hard to come by, but we have some good pointers.
Data from CyberMedia Research (CMR) shows that nearly 45% of all mobile Handsets shipped in the India market during the October-December 2010 quarter were dual- or triple-SIM phones.
India is a unique telecom market in terms of subscription, more than 92% of users being in the pre-paid category. Most of them change their mobile numbers frequently, drawn by better tariff plans offered by competing telcos. That leads to multiple SIMs with many subscribers.
Moreover, 'the churn of SIMs' between different operators (due to unsurrendered but inactive SIM) ends up creating an apparent, illusory increase in either 'active subscription' or the 'subscriber base'.
India's Mobile Ghosts
