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India's 300 mn mobile phone 'Ghosts'

xhw1986

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India crossed 800 million mobile subscribers in March 2011. Or did it? The reality is very different: 501 million users. Here's how

Ibrahim Ahmad & Ritu Singh

Monday, May 02, 2011

The story continues....and India once again takes pride in adding another 100 mn mobile subscribers to its kitty and crossing yet another milestone of 800 mn subscribers in a total population of 1.2 bn. According to the data released by Trai, the total wireless subscriber base of India at the end of March 2011 was 811.59 mn.

It certainly calls for celebration. Or does it? Are we sure that there are 812 mn mobile subscribers in India now?

The ground reality, which comes out starkly from TRAI's own data and some market data, (see table) tells a different story: of 500 mn, not 800 mn, mobile subscribers.

The VLR Does Not Lie

Trai's disclosure of the number of active wireless subscribers based on a visitor location register (VLR) number of 574 mn, out of a total of 812 mn subscribers in March 2011, provides a clearer view of the subscriber number and other key operating indicators such as tele-density.

What the above VLR figure says is that India had 574 mn active mobile numbers by March end (2011), and not 812 mn. The rest-the difference of 238 mn between the two numbers-are the inactive numbers, those who have lapsed because they are past their validity and are “in the grace period”, or may be postpaid subscriptions that have been blocked for non-payment.

The VLR is an accurate, “current snapshot”. It is a temporary database of subscribers who have roamed into the particular area which it serves. Each base station in the network is served by exactly one VLR, hence a subscriber cannot be present in more than one VLR at a time. The VLR system keeps track of active users in any particular service area, and thus is the right method to calculate the number of active users.

milli_01.jpg


Even so, these are all subscriptions-that is, mobile numbers. That is not the same thing as distinct users. If someone has two SIMs, he is being counted twice in all these numbers.

“Obviously, 800 mn subscriptions does not mean 800 mn users,” says Kuldeep Goyal, ex-CMD, BSNL. He believes the actual number of active mobile phone users would be in the 450-500 mn range, and emphasizes that the 800 mn figure is not a correct picture.

“You get the current VLR figure from Trai, which gives the number of actual active users, for instance 560 mn for February 2011. From that VLR figure, you can reduce another 15% or more as multiple SIM cards,” he adds.

VLR data shows the total active subscribers in the VLR on the last working day of a particular month.

“To compute India's tele-density on the basis of 800 mn numbers is misleading,” says Deepak Maheshwari, telecom market expert and director, corporate affairs, Microsoft. “We should go with the VLR figure [of 574 mn]. Even the VLR figure indicates the peak number. If we take the VLR average, then the number could be even smaller.”

The Multi-SIM Phenomenon

How many Indians use more than one SIM card?

Comprehensive data on that is hard to come by, but we have some good pointers.

Data from CyberMedia Research (CMR) shows that nearly 45% of all mobile Handsets shipped in the India market during the October-December 2010 quarter were dual- or triple-SIM phones.

India is a unique telecom market in terms of subscription, more than 92% of users being in the pre-paid category. Most of them change their mobile numbers frequently, drawn by better tariff plans offered by competing telcos. That leads to multiple SIMs with many subscribers.

Moreover, 'the churn of SIMs' between different operators (due to unsurrendered but inactive SIM) ends up creating an apparent, illusory increase in either 'active subscription' or the 'subscriber base'.

milli_02.jpg


India's Mobile Ghosts
 
bet those 800 wanna be users, cant afford toilets and india seems eager to give them mobile phone, what about mobile toilets??
 
are you using your claws of a cat here indian, go find your buddies in bharat rakshak, this is not your place to find friends here

Yeah just like the entire pakistan is using its claws to scratch the pole when the U.S.A. gunned down osama in your own backyard without even bothering to intimate you in advance!!!:rofl::rofl:
 
Hm, weird the title won´t be changed after editing it....I wonder why...?
 
not matter 800 or 500, there is nothing to celebrate.

China come up with its own base station design in 1990s, on the exact same day of the announcement, loser companies like Moto and Nokia dropped their base station price for China for 30-50%. because they know mobile technologies are no longer secret to Chinese. As of today, in less than 15 years Huawei and ZTE are two leaders of the 4G standard now.

but what india got? with hundreds of millions subscribers, india even couldn't build a base station on it own? oh, another day, another example on how the regime in new delhi systematically failed the entire india
 
not matter 800 or 500, there is nothing to celebrate.

China come up with its own base station design in 1990s, on the exact same day of the announcement, loser companies like Moto and Nokia dropped their base station price for China for 30-50%. because they know mobile technologies are no longer secret to Chinese. As of today, in less than 15 years Huawei and ZTE are two leaders of the 4G standard now.

but what india got? with hundreds of millions subscribers, india even couldn't build a base station on it own? oh, another day, another example on how the regime in new delhi systematically failed the entire india

Moto and Nokia are still big company and not loser like what you said.I quite agree with you on the Huawei developed well especially in the east europe but Moto still have a better market in US,UK.For handphone,Nokia still stand on the top ,they are stilll a big gamer not loser.
 
Moto and Nokia are still big company and not loser like what you said.I quite agree with you on the Huawei developed well especially in the east europe but Moto still have a better market in US,UK.For handphone,Nokia still stand on the top ,they are stilll a big gamer not loser.

i think there is a misconception here``Moto and Nokia does handphone market` and at the mean time they provide network solution and services to other network service companies, they used to led in this market. However, ZTE especially Huawei is mainly focusing on network solution and end-to-end technology services, thats why they out performed in this area as they are more focused on end-to-end technology services area.

I live in london, my vodafone mobile and internet card is Huawei, and my BT broadband is using ZTE's home harbour router. and there is rumor going that London Underground contracted Huawei to build its entire underground mobile network, but there are quite a few objections going to spend that money on london's antique underground where you dont get signals``!
 
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