Bill Longley
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U.S. President Donald trump met Prime minister of Pakistan Imran khan on the side lines of WEF at Devos. It was PM Khan’s third meeting with Donald Trump. President Trump called PM Khan his friend and again offered help for resolution of Kashmir issue. It was trumps 3rd time offer of help with regards to Kashmir crisis.
Last time PM Khan and Trump met in New York on Side lines of UNGA on 23rd September 2019. A day before meeting , Indians Americans organized an impressive gathering in Houston ,Texas in which Both U.S. President Trump and Indian Prime minister Narendra Modi addressed. This ‘Jalsa’ was supposed to be a big PR stunt in which Modi praised Trump and also bitterly criticized Pakistan without taking its name. President Trump on other Hand surprised Modi and Indian Audience when in his address he termed Modi’s statements as ‘very aggressive’ and then on next day offered Imran khan that he is ready of mediate for resolution of Kashmir crisis.
U.S foreign policy is known for its pragmatism. U.S former Secretary of State’s Henry Kissinger is said to have once said ‘America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests’. History of U.S- Pak relations is witness that U.S followed this principal in every era. Two years back same U.S president Trump tweeted on first Jan 2018 about U.S. financial help and lack of Pakistan’s help in Afghanistan. In August 2018 US ended military training program for Pakistan.
In Nov 2018 Trump accused Pakistan by tweeting ‘we no longer pay Pakistan the $Billions because they would take our money and do nothing for us’.
Things started changing after Pakistan Indian Skirmishes of 26 and 27 Feb 2019. After Indian Air force failed strike on Balakot in which few trees and a crow died U.S. National Security adviser John Bolton phoned Indian NSA Ajit Doval and told him
that’ US supports India’s right to self-defense” On 28th according to ANI , U.S. Secretary of state’s Mike Pompeo also talked to Ajidt Doval and expressed support .
After the initial bravado by Indian Armed forces and media things started becoming clear.
IAF attack on Balakot and claim of hundreds of casualties turned to be wrong. International experts with help of satellite pictures proved that IAF failed and in fear of PAF ran back dropping munitions in un-inhibited jungle.
Then on 27th when Pakistan striked back Indians shot their own helicopter killing all on board. Colonel Pravin Sawhney, revealed in his talk at Military literature festival 2019 in Chandigarh that IAF Su 30’s came back to their bases without facing Pakistan Air Force because they were blinded and their sensors were blocked by Pakistanis. Indian claim of shooting F-16 by Abinandan’s MIG 21 also became joke of the year and soon Americans realized , in words of editor force magazine, ‘A senior US diplomat told me after Balakot there is skepticism in US circles if for 30 years they backed the wrong horse. Indian military may not be as strong as it seems’.
A senior US diplomat told me after Balakot there is skepticism in US circles if for 30 yrs they backed the wrong horse. Indian military may not be as strong as its seems. But, no review of policy yet - not under Trump. Think what losing US strategic comfort would mean for India?
— Pravin Sawhney (@PravinSawhney) January 19, 2020
Trump is a business man who likes to make smart deals. He soon realized importance of Pakistan’s strategic location and power potential. Indians on other hand proved that New Delhi can be a regional balancer in Indo- Pacific strategy providing important naval and military facilities for use of U.S and its allies.
India under BJP has shown lack of strategos or divine spark for which Indian diplomacy was famous for in the past. New Delhi has isolated itself in region and in pursuit of catching American eyes distanced its self from its close allies like Russia and Iran.
Indian love affair with U.S. and role in Indo Pacific strategy is not seen with affection by Russians who are coordinating with Chinese on different issues and are close like allies. India trying to maintain close relation with Russia and US is not possible. US has threatened sanctions on India over S-400 purchase. Similarly trade conflict/ surge in tariffs is another snub to India by Americans.
Then Iran an important ally of India is slipping away. Due to U.S sanctions on Iran, New Delhi stopped buying oil from Iran and started looking towards GCC countries, all competitors of Iran. It also slashed Chahbahar budget from Rs 150 crore to Rs 45 crore. It shocked Iran and same Iran which was showing unfriendly gestures to Pakistan during last year Indo-Pak crisis started coming near to Pakistan. Tehran is also member of BRI project of China. Recently Russian, Chinese Navies participated in naval drills with Iranian navy. BRI is bringing Iran and china closer to each other which is precieved as threat by India and its new ally U.S.
On other hand Modi Amit Shah Plan for NRC and protests against CAA are being criticized by India’s close friends like Prime Minister Hasina wajid of Bangladesh and former Afghan president Hamid Karzai. Sowing more distrust Dilip Ghosh, president BJP East Bengal said in a rally on 20th Jan 2020 that “ Govt committed to implementing proposed nationwide NRC, will send back 10 million Bangladeshi Muslims living in West Bengal illegally”.
Noting pulse of BJP policy Bangladesh has joined BRI project. It has purchased submarines from China and Chinese are also building a submarine base for Bangladeshi Navy. If Dilip Ghosh threat materializes Bangladeshi govt will have to react.
Then there is Napal, a land locked country bordering both China and India. New Delhi traditionally try to dictate Katmandu due to its dependency on Indian routes for trade and supply. India blockaded Nepal in September 2015 resulting in humanitarian and economic crisis in Kathmandu. Recently Napal signed agreement of constructing 70-km (42-mile) rail link which will connect Gyiron in Tibet with Nepal’s capital Kathmandu. Making it one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in the country.it is also constructing 28-km (17 mile) road tunnel which will save more than half the distance from Kathmandu to the Chinese border, saving on time and cost. These links will also give alternative to Nepal and allow Nepal to benefit from BRI benefits.
Another Indian neighbor Bhutan is also not happy with Indian conduct during Doklam crisis of 2017. The disputed road which China was constructing was on Bhutanese territory. India over reacted for its interests and in end without considering Bhutan’s interests acted hence offending Bhutanese. China and Bhutan are trying to resolve border issues and developing positive relations making India insecure, New Delhi fears Bhutan may join BRI making India more vulnerable.
India’s biggest fear is People Republic of China. Beijing is many times bigger and stronger in all the elements of national power. India consider china as equal that’s why Indian FM Subrahmanyam Jaishankar talked to create equilibrium with China. Beijing has boundary disputes with India and in 1962 both fought a war and then again came near to war during Sum Do Wrong chu or Twang crisis in 80’s.
China has effectively encircled India with his project of Belt and road initiative. Beijing with its soft power and apparently benevolent policy is winning countries after countries as its friends. China is ‘Iron brother of Pakistan’ helping Pakistan in nearly every important sector and also developing China Pakistan Economic Corridor which will be game changer for Pakistan and region. China stands with Pakistan on Kashmir dispute with India. Interpretability is developing between Pakistan army, Navy and Air force with PLA, PLAN and PLAF.
China has recently signed BRI agreement with Myanmar similar to CPEC. China is expected to have Navel facility in Nay Pyi Taw. Base in Burma will facilitate PLAN in Bay of Bengal.
Indian navy is also facing blunt of PLAN increasing activity in Indian Ocean region (IOR). First time Brahmos caring SU-30’s have been stationed in South India to counter Chinese navy. Recently PLAN concluded exercises with South African and Iranian and Pakistan navy.
Ironically for India, U.S. has nothing to offer equaling to BRI of china. U.S. Indo Pacific strategy has narrowed down to Quad. Quad is security dialogue between U.S., Japan, Australia and India. Surprisingly Tokya has joined Belt and Road initiative meaning Chinese soft power has made one of its staunch rival into a partner.
India at one side has been isolated and on other internally Hindu tva agenda has destroyed its secular foundations. Internally low caste Hindus and other minorities are at unease because they know after Muslims they will be targeted. Fanatic and fascist Modi govt has changed Kashmir known as paradise on Earth into world’s largest prison. Maoists or Naxilites are getting power and now have reached in South India. Sikhs are demanding for Khalistan. Economy is on steep decline. Poverty increasing but govt only interested in Hinduizing minorities or villanizing Muslim Pakistan to gather support. Only ally which BJP govt find in India are Hindu extremists or Indian army.
Fanaticism never pays any dividends, Pakistan has learned it hard way. If India continues on this path, it will not only destroy it self. U.S. president Donald Trump is giving favor to India to avoid fall by giving honorable way of helping resolve Kashmir issue. Time is passing very fast and PM Khan has warned that situation in IOK can cause Indo-Pak war. FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi has rightly said ‘“The world must have its interests for considering India its commercial ally but it should not be silent on the prevailing situation in India giving due importance to people’s values,”
https://strategicaffairsanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/01/indian-isolation-and-new-political.html
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