Indian foreign policy Titanic hits several icebergs

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Indian foreign policy Titanic hits several icebergs​

The strategic Indo-Iranian relationship, already in turbulent waters has been unable to avoid the “on the rocks” status. Not only has the relationship hit rock bottom, it has fatally crashed into several icebergs. India’s relationship with Iran is not the only one–India has got serious problems with Russia too.

Even though this is not the Monsoon season, when it rains it pours. Two weeks before the visit of the Indian Foreign Minister, the Saudis called off the visit.

The timing of the “reschedule” is ominous, coming on the heels of the visit of the Pakistani president to Jeddah.

The world is focusing on South Asia as never before and all conflicts are under a microscope.

….The entry of countries outside of South Asia as observers at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation might make some waves…. effect on how SAARC redefines itself as a meaningful regional organisation…Regional security problems in South Asia — Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal belt; the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka; until recently the Maoist insurgency in Nepal and India’s north-eastern states; and the unrest in Kashmir — do not present a comfortable picture to foreign economic and security players. Analysis: Eyes on South Asia —Rasul Bakhsh Rais

Just a few weeks ago, India was on top of the world as if there was no tomorrow. In days gone by India was building a port at Chahbahar in order to find an alternate route to Kabul to hook up Chahbahar to Kabul. India spent hundreds of millions of Dollars to build the 150 kilometer Zarang Delaram highway. Indian built Zarang Delaram Link: Road to Afghan Mad Max hell! That highway along with the Afghan ring road are considered the most dangerous highways in the worlds littered with the carcasses of NATO, ISAF and US MARVs and trucks. With almost all bridges blown up, the highways in Afghanistan are neither safe, nor traversable for any of the occupation forces. After spending several hundred million Dollars, the road now lies in disuse and ultimate ruin..

The Indo-Iranian marriage of convenience dreamed up by the Indians to resurrect Lord Curzon’s “On to the Oxus policy” into Afghanistan and beyond by avoiding Pakistan has now fizzled out. The Singh Doctrine Fails to achieve Akhand Bharat.

Thus, a series of icebergs has been lately slicing through the hull of the Titanic that used to be the grand old India-Iran “strategic partnership”. A disaster was waiting to happen ever since India voted against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency three years ago following US President George W Bush’s entreaties with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. India seeks ‘velvet divorce’ from Iran By M K Bhadrakuma

Several months ago, we covered the relationship’s problems when we highlighted the fact that the Indians stabbed the Iranians in the back by not supporting it in the Nuclear field and referring its case to the IAEA. The next major catastrophe that hit the relationship was when India launched the Iran specific satellite for Israel. Now comes the Iranian payback for India–complete and unambiguous endorsement for the Pakistan viewpoint on Kashmir by the official organ of Iran–the Teheran Times.

India continues to defy the world by denying Kashmiris their inalienable right to determine their destiny … The atmosphere of tension in India-Pakistan relations has engendered instability and insecurity in South Asia. The urgency of the situation and the need to resolve the dispute as soon as possible cannot be over-emphasized … The world’s Muslims will always stand by the Kashmiris until they succeed in their struggle to attain the right to self-determination.” Teheran Times: The Black Day of Kashmir - 61 years of pain

As if the officially sanctioned anti-India, pro-Pakistan, for-Kashmir freedom article was not enough, Teheran followed it up by snubbing Pranab Mukherjee the visiting Indian Foreign Minister–President Ahmedinejad refused to see him and the Iranians downgraded the Joint Indo-Iranian commission.

There is also the sense that Mr Obama’s ideas on India have been evolving from his initial opposition of the nuclear deal to his eventual endorsement of the deal and new ties with India. On the other hand, the Indian establishment, very early on, had made no secret of its preference for a McCain administration. Obama’s change could also involve US policy on J&K, 4 Nov, 2008, 0347 hrs IST, ET Bureau economictimes indiatimes

President Elect Brack Obama’s recent comments on Kashmir are part of a well thought out policy created after much deliberation and contact with various think tanks.

Singapore, November 3: As Obamamania grips much of the world, including India, the man who might become the next President of the United States has ideas on Jammu and Kashmir that should cause some concern to New Delhi.

For months now, New Delhi has been assessing Obama’s seeming hard-line towards Pakistan, including a threat to bomb terrorist bases there if Islamabad failed to act against the al-Qaida and the Taliban. India, however, has paid less attention to the carrot Obama was offering Pakistan—American activism on Kashmir in return for credible cooperation in Afghanistan.

Obama’s remarks on Kashmir are by no means off the cuff. They have been remarkably consistent since he launched his presidential campaign. In the first comprehensive articulation of his world view in the journal Foreign Affairs during the summer of 2007, Obama argued, “If Pakistan can look towards the east (India) with confidence, it will be less likely to believe its interests are best advanced through cooperation with the Taliban.” (C. Raja Mohan is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University and a Contributing Editor of The Indian Express.)

Indian policy makers already stung by the new policy review of General Patraeus, got huge migraine headaches at the prospect of the return of the Taliban. Now the world is breathing down India’s neck on Kashmir.

For another, the prospect that the U S might offer incentives on Kashmir is bound to encourage the Pakistan Army to harden its stance against the current peace process with India.

Finally, the sense that an Obama Administration will put Jammu & Kashmir on the front burner would give a fresh boost to militancy in Kashmir and complicate the current sensitive electoral process there. Kashmiri separatist lobbies in Washington have already embraced Obama’s remarks.

(C. Raja Mohan is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University and a Contributing Editor of The Indian Express.)

As India was struggling with the tectonic shift in Washington and West Asia came the news that President Clinton had been assigned as President Barack Obama’s special envoy on Kashmir.

India is dragging its feet on the Iran-Pakistani-India pipeline at the behest of the USA.

Recent moves by Iran in inviting the GCC and Saudi Arabia are a sign of the times when the Gulf countries want to cooperate with Iran and possibly build the much heralded Gulf Common Market.

Iran may be joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Black Se Organization. There is some talk of reviving the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) between Iran, Turkey and Pakistan–this time without the US sponsorship.

Indian relations with Pakistan have hit a snag are at a low. Pakistan India Summit talks fail-Gilani rejects Indian rhetoric. The Syrians are miffed at India for not even condemning the US attack on Syria.

At the root of it lies unprecedented US-Israeli interference in India’s Iran policy. Such interference is nothing new since the early 1990s, when Delhi established diplomatic relations with Israel. Delhi skillfully navigated the relationship with Iran, despite the robust growth of ties with Israel on a parallel track.

However, things began changing three to four years ago as Indian foreign policy in the region began getting more “security-centric” and Israel was elevated as a pivotal relationship. Today, in the Iranian perception, Delhi’s avowal that it is capable of buttressing the India-Iran relationship from the predatorial skill of US and Israeli diplomacy lacks credibility.

Tehran used to respect India’s perceived political will to retain its autonomy of action and thinking on regional issues. That confidence seems to have evaporated. Mottaki forcefully pleaded with Mukherjee that the two countries should focus on a relationship that served their “real interests” rather than fall into the “conspiracies of foreign powers” which hatch “mischief aimed at sowing discord” in Iran-India relations. India seeks ‘velvet divorce’ from Iran Asia Times (M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.)

Indian RAW funded Swat terrorists:$650 million to destabilize Pakistan. The problem with the Indian strategy is that it has not worked in the past. India tried to build relations in another Afghan puppet–Babrak Karmal. Amid great rejoicing and platitudes he visited New Delhi to usher in a great Indo-Afghan era which would be used to control all of Central Asia and be a counterweight to China. A few weeks after his much heralded visit to New Delhi Mr. Karmal was riding a Soviet tank out of Kabul–never to be heard again. The New Delhi embassy remained closed for several years, and all Indian were sent packing out of Afghanistan. India’s Afghan policy was as much a debacle as the Lord Curzon’s On to the Oxus policy in yesteryear.

Today’s India’s policy of supporting the puppet regime in Afghanistan against the popular will in Afghanistan and India’s policy or supporting terror groups in Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan will create a huge backlash against new Delhi. Rupee News has already reported that the Indian analysts are predicting a cacodemon situation for India in Kabul. Nightmare scenario for India in Kabul: The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The Indian think tanks, Indian Americans and the Indian public at large put all their eggs in the Republican basket. The Hindustan Times public admitted the the Indian government had made its predisposed proclivity for a McCain Administration known to all. Now that may be in jeopardy again. With the return of the Taliban a distinct possibility in Kabul, the Singh Doctrine is going up in fumes and giving migraine headaches to Delhi. Yet again, India finds itself on the wrong side of history in Afghanistan.

. President Elect Barack Obama a day before he was elected President in a visionary statement admitted the disputed nature of Kashmir and has probably assigned President Bill Clinton as a special envoy of the US to resolve the Kashmir issue.

The story of Afghanistan and colonialism begins a long time ago.

Whenever the wind stops howling over the mountains of Tora Bora, a deep, rich chuckle can presumably be heard echoing down the valleys. If he is still alive, nobody will be enjoying the plight of America more than Osama bin Laden. The anarchic carnage in the American financial and political system brings in sight a humiliating withdrawal and defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq. It even raises the possibility of the final collapse of the evil empire which Osama forecast.” British columnist Neil Lyndon

General Patraeus already has started talks with the Taliban. The Brits and the Europeans want to get out of Afghanistan now. A major reassessment of the Global War on Terror is inevitable. President Barack Obama would clearly withdraw from Afghanistan if he could do it with a trophy–possibly the body of Osama Bin Laden.

Above all, Delhi will face a new situation if Obama revisits the “war on terror”. As well-known Lebanese commentator Rami Khouri thoughtfully wrote, “US-backed governments in half a dozen countries are losing their battles and political confrontations with Islamist-led indigenous oppositions, and have to form national unity governments or explore other means of power … The American-Afghan tentative move to engage the Taliban politically is … a welcome sign that Washington is finally learning the value of seeing and resolving conflicts in their wider local and regional context. We may well see something similar happen in Iraq, including American-Iranian-Saudi-Syrian contacts in the near future.” India seeks ‘velvet divorce’ from Iran By M K Bhadrakumar Asia Times