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Washington: Indian economy, which accounts for 80 per
cent of South Asia's output, is set to grow by 6.4 per
cent in 2015-16 as against 5.6 per cent in 2014-15, the
World Bank has said.
With economic activity buoyed by expectations from the
new elected government of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi, "India is benefiting from a "Modi dividend"," the
Bank said in its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus
report on Monday.
Over the next year or so economic growth should be
supported by the recovering US economy that would
provide a market for Indian merchandise and service
exports, it said.
"The outlook over the next years for South Asia indicates
broad economic stability and a pick-up in growth with
potential risks concentrated on the fiscal and structural
reform side," said Martin Rama, Chief Economist for
South Asia at the World Bank.
"Future growth will increasingly depend on strong
investment and export performance," he added.
Private investment is expected to pick up thanks to the
government's business orientation, and declining oil
prices should boost private sector competitiveness.
But economic reforms will be needed for India to achieve
its full long-term growth potential, the report argued.
The report said the region's economy will expand by a
real 6 per cent in 2015 and by 6.4 per cent in 2016
compared to 5.4 per cent this year, potentially making it
the second fastest growing region in the world after East
Asia and the Pacific. Other countries in the region are
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The Bank said India's long-term growth potential remains
high due to favourable demographics, relatively high
savings, and policies and efforts to improve skills and
education, facilitate domestic market integration and
incentivise manufacturing activities.
In the medium term, with the economy still below
potential and reforms on a gradualist path, growth is
expected to accelerate from 5.6 per cent in 2015 to 6.4
per cent and 7 per cent in 2016 and 2017.
Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy
switching to inflation targeting while the current account
deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand
and capital inflows rise.
Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue with
stronger revenue mobilisation, while the oil subsidy
burden could decline to 0.6 per cent of GDP if benign
global crude prices persist, it said.
Supply chain delays and uncertainty are a major yet
under-appreciated constraint to manufacturing growth
and competitiveness in India, it said.
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cent of South Asia's output, is set to grow by 6.4 per
cent in 2015-16 as against 5.6 per cent in 2014-15, the
World Bank has said.
With economic activity buoyed by expectations from the
new elected government of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi, "India is benefiting from a "Modi dividend"," the
Bank said in its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus
report on Monday.
Over the next year or so economic growth should be
supported by the recovering US economy that would
provide a market for Indian merchandise and service
exports, it said.
"The outlook over the next years for South Asia indicates
broad economic stability and a pick-up in growth with
potential risks concentrated on the fiscal and structural
reform side," said Martin Rama, Chief Economist for
South Asia at the World Bank.
"Future growth will increasingly depend on strong
investment and export performance," he added.
Private investment is expected to pick up thanks to the
government's business orientation, and declining oil
prices should boost private sector competitiveness.
But economic reforms will be needed for India to achieve
its full long-term growth potential, the report argued.
The report said the region's economy will expand by a
real 6 per cent in 2015 and by 6.4 per cent in 2016
compared to 5.4 per cent this year, potentially making it
the second fastest growing region in the world after East
Asia and the Pacific. Other countries in the region are
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The Bank said India's long-term growth potential remains
high due to favourable demographics, relatively high
savings, and policies and efforts to improve skills and
education, facilitate domestic market integration and
incentivise manufacturing activities.
In the medium term, with the economy still below
potential and reforms on a gradualist path, growth is
expected to accelerate from 5.6 per cent in 2015 to 6.4
per cent and 7 per cent in 2016 and 2017.
Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy
switching to inflation targeting while the current account
deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand
and capital inflows rise.
Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue with
stronger revenue mobilisation, while the oil subsidy
burden could decline to 0.6 per cent of GDP if benign
global crude prices persist, it said.
Supply chain delays and uncertainty are a major yet
under-appreciated constraint to manufacturing growth
and competitiveness in India, it said.
got this news form ibnlive