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India's GDP growth in FY08 seen at 9.2 pct - CII
Fri May 25, 2007 6:01 PM IST

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The Indian economy will grow by 9.2 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2008 boosted by industry and services sectors and a rebound in farm output, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) said on Friday.

The forecast of the industry body is significantly higher than that of the government and the central bank.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the economy would grow by more than 8.5 percent for the year to March 2008 while the central bank pegged it at around 8.5 percent.

"Despite some of the difficulties in current year in terms of interest rate, input price rise, inflation...we are expecting Indian economy to stay firm at 9.2 percent growth mark," Sunil Bharti Mittal, the newly-appointed president of CII, told reporters during a press conference.

He said industry is expected to grow 9.4 percent during 2007/08 while the services sector would expand by 11.2 percent and farm output will grow 3 percent.

Industrial growth could go up to 12 percent with more reforms in the coming years, he said. Industry grew 11.3 percent during 2006/07.

Mittal, who is also the group chief executive officer of Bharti Enterprises and founder of Bharti Airtel, said the government needs to de-regulate key sectors like energy, mining and food products to fuel growth.

"We are convinced 1.5 to 2 percent upliftment of GDP sits in these areas."

India is aiming at an average annual 9 percent growth during the period 2007/08 to 2011/12.
 
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Buoyant outlook for Indian hotel sector

Knight Frank Research has recently released its India Hotel Review of the hotel sector in the country. Express Hospitality presents this review in three parts.

The phenomenal growth of the service sector has had a direct impact on the real estate sector. According to Knight Frank estimates, close to 100 mn sq ft of office space will be developed in the country over the next two years, 80 per cent of which will be taken up by the IT/ITES sector. Besides this, approximately 120 mn sq ft of mall space will come up in the market by 2008. Another segment which is benefiting from the growth of the service sector is the hotel industry. Liberalisation of the Indian economy coupled with the growth in domestic business and a buoyant economic outlook has led to an enhancement in business travel in India.

According to Government of India estimates, the foreign arrivals in India increased by 11 per cent between 2004 and 2005 and by 15 per cent between 2005 and 2006. More than 50 per cent of this number are foreign business travellers. Besides this, approximately 300 million domestic travellers traverse the country each year and this number is expected to witness a growth of 10-15 per cent over the next few years. Also, the efforts made by the ministry of tourism & culture in the last few years have had a salutary effect on India's tourism industry. As per a survey undertaken by an international travel magazine in 2006, India has been ranked as the 4th most favoured country for holidays, above South Africa and Switzerland. Coupled with this, availability of low cost medical facilities and the introduction of low cost airlines are all expected to generate increased demand for hotel rooms across many cities in India.

National Capital Region (NCR)

NCR, including the national capital New Delhi and the satellite towns of Faridabad, Gurgaon, Noida and Ghaziabad, is a prime economic zone of India. A great historical past, gateway to the northern India hill stations, excellent national and international connectivity makes the region one of the most favoured destination for trade, commerce, politics and tourism.

Rapidly improving infrastructure, widespread economic activities, availability of skilled manpower and decentralisation policy of urban development has triggered offer further growth of the NCR. Widening of national highways and expressways, launch of the Delhi Metro Project and growth of the IT/ITES sector have also contributed to the boom in the real estate sector which had led to increased business trips to the capital.

The growth of the industrial and service sector in NCR had led to a surge in demand for star category hotels and this has had a positive impact on the hospitality business. Besides being a major transitional point for international and domestic tourists, the region also witnesses an inflow of both business and leisure travellers. This is unlike other metros, which predominantly host business travellers. Foreign business travellers form around 70 per cent of the corporate clientele of the hotels in NCR.

Current scenario

Over the last few years, tourism in NCR has grown to include heritage tourism, adventure tourism, medical tourism and eco-tourism. Various segments, including the domestic as well as international corporate travellers, bureaucrats, sportsmen as well as transitional tourists are the main clientele for the hospitality sector. New Delhi, as the nation's capital, regularly hosts various political meets and also contributes to the demand for hotel rooms in the region. Healthy industrial growth and better infrastructure, conducive for trade events, have surged the business traffic, which has accelerated the demand for business hotels.

The current room inventory in all the categories in NCR is around 9,982 of which the premium category hotels constitute around 85 per cent or 8,532 rooms. The list includes names like ITC Maurya Sheraton, Shangri-La, Trident and Taj Mahal Palace in the five-star deluxe category, Oberoi, Uppal Orchid and Imperial Heritage in the five-star category, while the four-star category includes Hotel Janpath and Hotel Kanishka.

Between 2003 and 2005, the average occupancy rate in the NCR hotels grew from 70 per cent to 78 per cent. At present, the occupancy rate is about 83 per cent. Average Room Rate (ARR) in the region has gradually increased from Rs. 4,200 in 2003 to Rs 5,200 in 2004. However, ARR is expected to grow manifold and touch Rs 10,000 by end-2007. Room rents contribute almost 60 per cent of the total revenue generated in the hotels while the Meetings, Incentives, Exhibitions and Conferences (MICE) segment accounts for approximately 15 per cent of the total revenue. The share of Food & Beverage (F&B) sector is limited due to competition from local restaurants and food chains.

NCR is expected to see many new hotels, service apartments and mixed-use developments over the next 3-4 years. Close to 25 new hotels are coming up in Gurgaon alone. Tie-ups with international players like Hillwood with Hyatt, Emaar with Accor and DLF with Hilton is expected to give a push to the hotel industry in NCR.

With the upcoming Commonwealth Games to be held in New Delhi in 2010, NCR is expected to witness the inflow of around 0.8 million international tourists and nearly 3.6 million domestic tourists. To accommodate these visitors approximately 30,000 rooms will be required in 2010. Around 6-8 hotels have been additionally planned for athletes in the Games Village, in the vicinity of the Commonwealth Games site in East Delhi.

Due to the availability of larger land parcels and proximity to expressways and ring roads, new hotels are coming up in the peripheral locations of the city. Majority of the new supply is coming up in the business hubs of Gurgaon and Noida. In the next couple of years, Noida will have additional 24 hotel projects. Once the upcoming Medicity at Gurgaon is operational, the location will become a global health-care destination and this will further give a boost to the demand for hotel rooms. Knight Frank Research indicates that over the next few years, the supply of hotel rooms in NCR will cross 17,500. Out of this, around 5,100 rooms are currently under construction and the rest in planning stages at various locations around the region.

To meet the long-stay demand from the corporate segment, service apartments have mushroomed in the NCR at a frenzied pace. According to Knight Frank Research, approximately 1,000 service apartments will be available in the region by 2008. Among the local developers, Enkay was the first developer to initiate this concept in New Delhi. Major hotels groups like Marriott, Oberoi, Oakwood, Westin, Leela, Claridges and Crowne Plaza are also planning service apartments in NCR. Besides these, many smaller and unbranded service apartments are also coming up in Gurgaon and Noida. These also clock a year-round occupancy and an average stay of 2.5 to 3 weeks, reflecting the high demand for such developments.

Due to high land cost and with a view to mitigate risk, the concept of hotels in malls is also flourishing Budget hotels in malls which offer shopping experience with entertainment facilities under one roof are eliciting attention from various hospitality players. An upcoming five-star hotel in East End Mall in Ghaziabad is one such example.

Outlook

Entry of international brands and players, international events and multi-national companies setting up and expanding operations has driven the growth of hospitality business in NCR. Soaring land prices and substantial initial investment are not longer the deterrents for this sector. Due to encouraging government policies like entitlement to duty-free imports floated by the government, the segment has availed considerable capital in the market. Recent transactions while auctioning the hotel plots, at prices which are three-fold of the reserved prices, show growing interest of investors in the region.

A five-year tax holiday announced in the recent budget by the finance ministry for two, three and four-star hotels and convention centres specifically catering to the Commonwealth Games in Delhi, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad is expected to initiate more hotel groups to venture into this real estate segment.

With the advent of international players, the NCR market is expected to grow towards global standards. Public private sector initiatives, undertaken in joint venture with developers like Unitech and Parsvanath, in order to promote entertainment and tourism industry along with infrastructure development in a diversified quantum has set the region to witness growth in the hospitality sector in the forthcoming years.

Jaipur

Jaipur, the capital of the state of Rajasthan, is a growing business centre of North India. The city offers an array of attractions ranging from historical monuments and palaces, parks and gardens, gems and jewellery business to emerging IT/ITES destinations. The city's age-old charm along with growing modernisation makes it an interesting package for a traveller.

Together with the north Indian cities of Delhi and Agra, Jaipur is the third city of the `Golden Triangle'. It has been one of the key tourist destinations of India and has the unique flavour of traditional hospitality of the regal empire. Excellent connectivity to New Delhi through rail, road and air has cemented Jaipur's position as a leading tourist location of the country.

In the last 2-3 years, Jaipur has undergone substantial changes which have altered the real estate landscape of the city. Low operational costs, availability of labour at economical rates, low attrition rates due to lack of regional competition have induced many IT/ITES companies to explore the city. As a result, the residential, office and retail sector real estate have seen unprecedented growth. Large-scale projects like the Mahindra and Mahindra SEZ, Vatika City, Pearl City, Omaxe City and many other corporate parks and malls are being developed around the city.

Current scenario

Major demand drivers for the hospitality sector in Jaipur are heritage tourism and cultural tourism. Festivals like Dusshehra, Pushkar Mela and Diwali take place in October and November and these months comprise the peak season for tourist arrivals. Around 67 per cent of the total tourists coming to the city are international travellers whereas domestic travellers constitute 33 per cent. The government has taken positive steps to promote tourism and to bridge the gap between demand and supply for tourist amenities including accommodation and leisure activities.

Penetration of the IT industry in Jaipur has given fillip to business tourism as well. A demand for business hotels with facilities such as convention halls equipped with presentation equipments, board rooms and lounges has been observed in the city. Jaipur has also been a favourite destination for marriages and theme parties and this also contributes to substantial room demand during the period September to March.

The total inventory of the hotel segment in Jaipur in all the categories is about 2,655 rooms. Of this, approximately 1,144 are in the five and five-star deluxe category, 352 in the four-star category and around 367 rooms in the heritage category. Some of the major hotels include Hotel Rambagh Palace (Bhawani Singh Road), Le Meridien (Delhi Road), Rajputana Palace Sheraton (near the railway station) and Country Inns & Suites (MI Road) in the five-star and five-star deluxe category, Hotel Gold Palace & Resorts (Delhi Road) and Fortune's Bella Casa (Ashram Marg, Tonk Road) in the four-star category and Raj Mahal Palace (Sardar Patel Marg), Raj Palace (Amer Road) in the heritage category.

The occupancy levels that were around 61 per cent in 2004, increased to 63 per cent in 2005 and to about 65 per cent in 2006. Significantly, Hotel Jai Mahal Palace enjoyed the highest occupancy rate of 72 per cent in December 2006.

It is expected that the occupancy rates for hotels in Jaipur will continue to move upwards as the clientele from the corporate sector is expected to increase.

ARR values have increased by 27 per cent during 2005 to around Rs 6,500 from Rs 5, 100 reported in 2004. Hotel Raj Vilas recorded the highest ARR of Rs 15,332 for the year 2006 while overall the premium category hotels in Jaipur achieved an ARR of around Rs 7,200 in the same year. The demand supply imbalance observed during the peak season has enabled hotels in Jaipur to charge higher tariffs across market segments. With a nominal 3-4 per cent p.a. increase in supply, ARR is expected to grow at a rate of 25-30 per cent in the next 2-3 years.

As per industry estimates, 56 per cent of total hotel revenue is generated by room rents whereas F&B contributes 26 per cent and convention and banquet halls each contribute approximately 8 per cent. Due to the presence of organised tour and travel operators, the international airport and introduction of new tourist attraction concepts like Elephant Safari (Haathi Gaon), the city is bound to witness growth from budget to premium-end clientele in hotel segment.

Strengthening of Jaipur as major tourist destination and a potential destination for business travellers has induced foreign players like Amanda, Satinwoods, Banana Tree, Hampton Inns, Hilton and Mandarin Oriental to consider the city for setting up new hotel projects. Hyatt has Jaipur on its priority list for establishing its resort as well.

Other players like Mahindra Group is developing a five-star hotel while InterGlobe, in a joint venture with Accor, is setting up a 500-room budget hotel in Jaipur, which will be operational by 2008. The construction for another budget hotel by The Lemon Tree has already started at World Trade Park on Jawaharlal Nehru Marg in Jaipur. An International Convention Centre is proposed in the city and is to come up within the next 18 months. A distinct market of hotel-cum-mall segment is also emerging in the city. Fortune Group's Bella Cassa, with an inventory of 57 rooms has been developed on the same concept.

Outlook

Out of the Rs 200 billion investment envisaged in Rajasthan, Jaipur is expected to receive a major share which will be invested for improving social infrastructure and amenities within the city. Better connectivity to the city on account of low-cost airlines has led to increased consideration of the city as a venue for conventions and marriages. It will further augment the share of room revenue in the total revenue generation pie and also create new demand for rooms.

The New Hotel Policy 2006 gives special provisions for development of hotels in Jaipur. The policy includes reservation of land parcels for hotel projects within the city, availability of hotels plots at a dropped reserved price (almost 50 per cent of commercial reserved price), 100 per cent exemption on entertainment tax and 100 per cent exemption from land conversion charges. All these provisions are expected to increase the supply of hotels in the city. Delhi Road due to the development of industrial parks, Ajmer Road on account of development of integrated townships and SEZs and Tonk Road owing to new commercial developments, will be emerging destinations for new hotel projects.

Jaipur, with its historical charm, will continue to attract international tourists and reap profits on the growing hospitality business. With the city emerging as a major centre for gems, jewellery and textiles, increased business for the hospitality segment will be coming in from this commercial segment. However, a supply of approximately 1,080 rooms over the next few years may create a situation of over-supply in the Jaipur hospitality market.

Kolkata

Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal is the second largest city of India and an erstwhile trading and commercial capital of the country. Various industrial set-ups including engineering products, leather, steel, automobiles and pharmaceutical companies together with banking and insurance companies have had a significant impact on the economic growth of the city. Kolkata is also the commercial capital of the north-eastern region with most companies having their regional offices in the city.

The emergence of Kolkata as a popular new economy destination due to its advantages of comparatively low manpower and real estate costs coupled with the existing industrial set-up have had major impact on the real estate sector of the city. Geographically, too, the city has grown outward in all the directions with major development along the eastern, southern as well as western locations. The growth of the IT/ITES sector in the city is also triggering a growth phase in retail, hotels and residential properties. Kolkata, which earlier had only a few hotel brands, has seen a change of face with the emergence of the new age companies in the city.

Connectivity from Kolkata to other Indian and international destinations by air is improving with the addition of new airlines. As the only metropolitan city for the entire eastern belt of the country, Kolkata has an extensive network of road and rail transportation facilities.

Current scenario

In recent times, the city's booming IT sector has led to the rise in demand for hotel rooms. There has been a substantial increase in the demand for good quality short-stay accommodation from Indian as well as foreign executives, as business in the city has improved after a lull of almost two decades. Almost 60-70 per cent of guests in the premium category are business travellers, with the airline crew contributing another 8-10 per cent to the total demand. The travellers to the city are mostly domestic but recently the share of international travellers has gone up and most of the premium category hotels have an average of 40 per cent foreigners as their clientele.

Currently, there are around 25-26 hotels in various categories operating in Kolkata. The current inventory in the premium category is around 1, 476 rooms, which is around 85 per cent of the total rooms in Kolkata. Most of the hotels like Taj Bengal, Oberoi Grand, Hotel Hindusthan International as well as The Kenilworth Hotel are located in the CBD and hold the advantage of location and accessibility. Other hotels like Hyatt Regency Kolkata and ITC Sonar Bangla Sheraton Hotel and Towers in the eastern part of the city, cater to the upcoming new business sectors along the Salt Lake and Rajarhat stretch.

The occupancy levels in the city hotels have increased at an average annual growth rate of 15-18 per cent since the last few years. The current average annual occupancy level of the city hovers around 80 per cent and is expected to remain at the same level for the next two years. Low ARR figures in 2001-03 were steadily recovered in the last few years due to emergence of the IT/ITES sector, the change in the ARR of a city being the indicator of the quantum of business activity. The premium category hotels currently have an ARR of Rs 4,100 - 5,000 with five-star deluxe hotels touching around Rs 12,000 in the recent past.

Kolkata is becoming a preferred location for conferences and seminars due to the relatively easy availability of space at a lower cost as compared to other metros. Banqueting facilities in hotels witnessed a booking level of almost 80 per cent in 2006 with larger demand from the corporate companies as compared to private functions. Facilities like spas have a good demand in Kolkata as five-star deluxe hotels like the Hyatt Regency, ITC Sonar Bangla as well as Oberoi Grand have exquisite spa facilities, most of them catering to in-house guests as well as local residents.

Tourism takes a backseat in the room demand for hotels, as this segment in Kolkata is fairly seasonal. A minimal 20 per cent of the demand can be attributed to foreign as well as domestic tourists in Kolkata. While rooms in the premium category contribute to almost 62 per cent of the net revenue, the MICE segment contribute almost 15 per cent of the net revenue generated in hotels in Kolkata.

The horizontal expansion of the city limits in the eastern and north-eastern part of Kolkata, including Rajarhat and Salt Lake, has seen many global IT companies setting up operations here. The proximity to the airport, availability of large land parcels and upcoming industrial set-ups has fuelled the demand for hotels to be located in this region. According to industry experts, Kolkata will witness a new supply of around 2,000 - 2,200 rooms of which approximately 80 per cent will come up in this region.

At least 12 new hotels and serviced apartments will be entering the Kolkata market over the next few years. While few hotels like The Fort Radisson have expansion plans within their current facility, hotels chains like Intercontinental Group, Marriott Hotels and Resorts, Hilton Group, Peerless Group, Sarovar Hotels, as well as DLF in joint venture with Dubai-based Emaar Group are setting up five-star and five-star deluxe properties in the city. On the other hand, hotels, like Grand Great Eastern Hotel as well as MBD Airport Hotel are currently under renovation and are expected to add to the upcoming supply of rooms.

Outlook

The service apartment segment in Kolkata has still not been explored, but as the market matures, the demand for medium to long-term stay options would increase. The continual demand from the IT/ITES segment together with the manufacturing and processing industry will further strengthen the demand for this segment in Kolkata. Few hotel groups like Intercontinental Group too have plans to set up service apartments in Rajarhat. The concept of mall hotels, combining a star category hotel within a mall and multiplex, was initiated with a 130-room star hotel at City Centre Mall, at Rajarhat.

Kolkata is currently undergoing an economic resurgence with the West Bengal government providing aggressive incentive packed steps to attract investments. The government has identified IT as priority sector to be developed into a growth engine for the future. With its improving infrastructure, low cost of operations and a proactive state government, Kolkata is well positioned to benefit from this growth in ITES services. The promotion of large-scale IT and non-IT industries in West Bengal will further enhance the demand for hotel rooms. Also large townships in various parts of the city planned by the government, in joint venture with developers, have hotels within their projects.
 
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Indian Government Draws Up Social Security
Voice of America

The Indian government has announced an ambitious plan to provide social security coverage to millions of poor workers for the first time. As Anjana Pasricha reports from New Delhi, the plan is part of the government's efforts to fight widespread poverty.

Nearly 400 million daily wage workers at construction sites, farms and small businesses in India have no access to old age or health benefits.

The government has proposed to change that with new legislation to be introduced in parliament in July.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan Das Munshi says workers who contribute about two cents a day will be eligible for benefits such as health insurance and disability protection under the plan.

The federal government says those earning less than $160 a year will not have to pay for the program.

The government has called its plan a "revolutionary step."

The social security proposal was announced as the government faced criticism for doing too little for poor people despite a rapidly growing economy.

Independent political analyst and columnist Prem Shankar Jha in New Delhi says social insecurity is at the root of growing disillusionment with the government.

"What you require was … social insurance, old age pensions, health insurance," said Jha. "There is an abundance of data [to show] that poor families in this country, whenever a member falls ill, they go into debt … the average level of debt in the poorest ten per cent of the population on health alone is more than one years earning."

Currently, less than 10 percent of India's workforce has access to social security benefits.

The Labor Ministry says it has already committed $250 million for the new plan. But critics say it could cost billions of dollars, and say it is not clear how the government will fund the ambitious project.

Last year, the government launched another effort to tackle rural poverty by promising 100 days of work each year for one member from each of India's 60 million rural households. But so far that project covers less than half the country.

India's Congress Party-led government increased its focus on programs to benefit the poor after the party lost ground in a series of local elections. The government came to power three years ago promising to do more for the common man. - VOA News
 
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South Africa: India Seeks to Open Opportunities for SA Companies
BuaNews (Tshwane)
25 May 2007

Shaun Benton
Cape Town

A high ranking Indian official says his government is looking at a mutually rewarding, "sincere partnership" with South Africa and identified business opportunities for South African companies on the sub-continent.

Secretary of State for External Affairs, Anand Sharma on Thursday told Indian and South African businesspeople in Cape Town, of India's large agricultural economy and the lack of expertise there for processing food into products such as fruit juice.

This was just one example of an industry where South Africa is a world leader, he said.

Mr Sharma explained that while India probably produced more fruit and vegetables than any other country, only 3 percent of this produce was exported and as much as 40 percent of it was lost, post-harvest.

Other areas where the country of 1.1 billion people was experiencing great demand was in the hospitality sector, which faced a shortage of hotel rooms - an area in which South African firms could supply the demand.

Mr Sharma, a seasoned anti-apartheid activist during his younger days in India and who is married to a South African, has been in the country for a few days with a tightly-packed schedule that included talks with President Thabo Mbeki and several Cabinet ministers.

In Cape Town, he was speaking to a conference staged by the Confederation of Indian Industry, whose members, such as the Tata group, have been making inroads into the South African market across various sectors.

This includes the area of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), where India has developed a solid international reputation as a leading and competitively-priced force, especially in software and ICT infrastructure.

President Mbeki has on more than one occasion pointed to India as a key source of assistance to South Africa in the area of ICT, and large groups of South Africans are already being trained in India in a number of fields including ICT.

ICT trade is moving in both directions.

South African Deputy Minister of Communications Radhakrishna Padayachie cited inroads being made into the Indian market by South African firm Sahara Computers, while South African food retailer Shoprite is another firm with a foothold on the Indian sub-continent.

Already, trade between South Africa and India - which began opening up its economy to foreign investors in the 1980s and has boomed partially as a result of this liberalisation - is increasing at a rate of 30 percent a year, Mr Sharma said.

Speaking to BuaNews Thursday, Mr Sharma said trade levels between the two countries were touching US$5.6 billion with the balance of trade favouring South Africa by around US$1 billion.

This was excluding imports of gold from South Africa, which are high considering that India is a major manufacturer - and exporter - of gold jewellery.

The countries are also partners in the trilateral IBSA forum, where they are joined by Brazil.

India is assisting South Africa in human resource development, capacity building and skills training, Mr Sharma said earlier, adding that both countries were looking for this cooperation to increase in a solid and trusted partnership.

"There is a political understanding [between the two countries] at the highest level," Mr Sharma told the group of business leaders working in South Africa, adding that the ground was prepared for more extensive business links and that these opportunities should be seized.

Both countries must "move fast", he said, to catch up to the levels of economic development such as that of their former colonial power, Britain.

Ruchira Kamboj, the Indian Consul-General in Cape Town, told the gathering of business leaders that a recent report by international investment analysts Goldman Sachs suggested that the economies of the world's developing countries could jointly be greater than those of the leading G8 industrialised powers in four decades.

Mr Sharma said the two governments wanted to see bilateral trade trebling by 2010, or at least reaching US$10 billion, as called for by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when he visited South Africa last October, and by Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka when she visited India prior to Mr Singh's visit.

Rajiv Kumar Bhatia, the Indian High Commissioner, said that between six and eight business promotional events were being organised by the Indian High Commission between March and November this year.
 
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India and China in the forefront of airport duty free growth
Michael Verikios - Friday, May 25, 2007
Friday, May 25, 2007

After a busy and productive week, TFWA Asia Pacific 2007, the 12th annual exhibition and conference for the duty free and travel retail industry in Asia, closed its works at the Singapore Suntec Centre. Industry executives, including colleagues involved in the broader airport revenue generating businesses, gathered on Monday 14th May for the 4th Gate One commercial revenues conference in Singapore.

A total of 24 eminent speakers and two professional moderators assembled in panels to contribute their expertise on subjects ranging from airport development and the emergence of airport cities to strategic partnerships and the topical issue of aviation security. Over 200 delegates participated in the conference which at times became very animated.

On the morning of Tuesday 15th at the TFWA Asia Pacific Conference, TFWA President Erik Juul-Mortensen summarised the state of the global industry and highlighted India and China as the principal sources of growth.

In the first session, ‘The Indian Retail Revolution and its effects on Asia Pacific’, the 450 delegates were impressed to learn of the rapidly maturing trillion-dollar Indian economy, of the massive development in air transport infrastructure in India and the related growth in the duty free and travel retail market. He was followed by retailers, suppliers, operators, analysts and marketing professionals who engaged in discussion involving the audience on how best the industry could capitalise on this immense potential.

In the second session, aviation security and the current situation regarding liquids, aerosols and gels (LAGs) were analysed by Frank O’Connell, President of ETRC, leading the ETRC campaign to implement a global policy which will both safeguard passenger security and enable them to continue enjoying duty free and travel retail shopping. Representatives from a liquor and a perfume brand and the Australian DFA and APTRA joined the Singapore representative of the TSA to discuss the ongoing situation and proposals which might alleviate the situation. The industry was strongly urged to support the campaign to find workable solutions to the issue.

During the week three topical workshops were held to focus attention on issues of particular interest to sectors of the industry: e-tailing, consumer purchasing behaviour and onboard sales.

TFWA Asia Pacific Exhibition assembled 199 international brand companies for the benefit of buyers, agents and distributors to the duty free and travel retail outlets in airports, border stores, ships, airlines and downtown stores. A total of 1,977 visitors attended the show, +1% increase on last year, of which 34% were key buyers and airport authorities (+1%) and 47% were agents (+12%). The balance was made up of press, guests and other trade visitors.
 
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Etihad eyes more Indian destinations
BY A STAFF REPORTER
25 May 2007

ABU DHABI —Etihad Airways is set to expand further in the Indian market if it gets government approval, according to a senior official from the Abu Dhabi-based airline.

"Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad are all in the airline's sights as the carrier prepares to launch flights on May 30 to Thiruvananthapuram and June 2 to Kochi, " said Geert Boven, Etihad's executive vice- president, sales and services. Etihad held talks with the Indian authorities over new air rights in March, which resulted in the new Kerala routes and will enable Etihad to offer a total of 21 flights per week from Abu Dhabi to India. Following the conclusion of the talks the airline has been working towards adding more Indian destinations to its expanding flight network which target the major cities in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Boven said: "With a population of one billion people and the world's second fastest growing economy, demand for Etihad's flights to India is huge. There are also more than one million Indian citizens living in the UAE who are eager to enjoy greater air links. I do hope that the two countries governments can reach agreement for even more non-stop flights to help satisfy consumer demand."

The UAE is India's most dominant trading partner in the entire West Asia North Africa (WANA) region, and represents 70 per cent of India's export to GCC (Gulf Cooperative Council) countries. Currently there are 3,300 Indian companies operating in the UAE. Bilateral trade between the two countries also continues to grow year-on-year and now stands at more than Dh48 billion.

Boven added:"Air travel between India and the UAE will continue to grow as both countries enhance their positions as major global destinations for business and leisure travellers. As this demand increases Etihad will look to boost its services and become the leading airline in this exciting and crucial sector." The new three flights-per-week service to Thiruvananthapuram and four flights-per-week service to Kochi will join Etihad's established flights to Mumbai and New Delhi, with flights to the Indian capital going daily from May 31.

Etihad is already experiencing high demand on the Thiruvananthapuram and Kochi routes, with aircraft seat sales averaging 80 per cent . The new flights will offer 3,360 seats per week between the UAE and Kerala which will increase to 6,720 when the two Kerala routes become daily from October 2007.
 
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Stop showing off wealth, tycoons are told
Jeremy Page in Delhi
The Times
May 26, 2007

Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister, has stunned business leaders by telling them to pay themselves less, limit their profits, eschew lavish weddings and shun “wasteful” Western lifestyles.

Mr Singh warned an audience including some of India’s richest tycoons that they could face severe social unrest if they did not curb their spending and do more to bridge the country’s yawning income gap.

“In a country with extreme poverty, industry needs to be moderate in the emolument levels its adopts,” he told the opening of the annual conference of the Confederation of Indian Industry on Thursday.

“Rising income and wealth inequalities, if not matched by a corresponding rise of incomes across the nation, can lead to social unrest.”

Mr Singh, who unleashed India’s current economic boom when he introduced market reforms as Finance Minister in 1991, has long been calling for more inclusive economic growth. But this time he went farther than ever in dressing down India’s business elite, striking a distinctly Gandhian – if not overtly socialist – tone. “The electronic media carries the lifestyles of the rich and famous into every village and slum. Media often highlights the vulgar display of their wealth,” he said.

“An area of great concern is the level of ostentatious expenditure on weddings and other family events. Such vulgarity insults the poverty of the less privileged, it is socially wasteful and it plants the seeds of resentment in the minds of the have-nots.”

Among the tycoons in the audience was Sunil Bharti Mittal, who is rated by Forbes magazine as the sixth-richest Indian in the world with a fortune of $9.5 billion (£4.8 billion). Also there was Jamshed Godrej, whose socialite wife threw an extravagant wedding party for Liz Hurley and Arun Nayar in Bombay in March.

Mr Singh’s speech highlights the ruling Congress Party’s mounting concern that it will lose the next election in 2009 if it does not extend the benefits of India’s economic boom to the bottom half of Indian society. The economy has been growing at an average of 8 per cent annually since 2003 and now has a middle class of about 50 million people and an estimated 83,000 dollar millionaires. But up to 40 per cent of its 1.1 billion people live on less than a dollar a day and have seen little evidence of growth apart from rising food prices.

Mr Singh’s appeal also reflects Congress’s growing reliance on its left-wing coalition partners, especially the Communist Party of India, after poor performances in state elections this year.

But political analysts say Mr Singh is treading a fine line between appeasing his socialist-minded allies and alienating the people who are driving India’s economic growth. Many economists say he should focus more on creating opportunities for the poor to generate wealth, rather than discouraging the rich from getting richer.

“His speech is at variance with his policies as Finance Minister and in his first years as Prime Minister,” said Pran Chopra, of the Centre for Policy Research. “This could worry the audience if it was followed by specific actions, but I do not think that will happen. This is just some sort of verbal comfort to those he thinks are becoming restless.”

Mr Singh used his speech to propose a ten-point charter for the corporate sector, calling for workers’ benefits, affirmative action on caste and environmentally friendly technology.

Yesterday his Government also announced an ambitious plan to provide pensions and healthcare for the first time to India’s estimated 370 million casual workers. The legislation, subject to parliamentary approval, aims to extend benefits to industries such as agriculture, construction, weaving and fishing.

An embarrassment of riches?

There are 36 Indian dollar billionaires

Their combined wealth = $191bn

$32bn is Lakshmi Mittal’s fortune. India’s richest citizen, who currently lives in Britain

Foreign direct investment to India last year totalled $15.7bn

There are 63 special economic zones planned to attract $13.5bn of foreign investment by 2009

Sources: Forbes, Indian Government, Thomson Financial, Times archives
 
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Store operators in India lure investors
By Saikat Chatterjee Bloomberg NewsPublished: May 25, 2007

NEW DELHI: The biggest Indian retailers are adding stores to lure shoppers whose incomes are rising in one of the fastest growing major economies. They are also luring investors.

Shares in retailers, which lagged behind the broader market in 2006, are rallying. Trent, which is owned by the Tata Group and runs fashion and cosmetics stores, has climbed 15 percent from an eight-month low in March. Shoppers' Stop, which sells clothing, accessories and home decor items, had its biggest monthly gain in April since September.

Companies are opening outlets in smaller cities to snatch market share from the 12 million neighborhood stores that still dominate the Indian retail sector. At the same time, incomes are rising and the economy is entering its fourth year of growth exceeding 8 percent.

"Retail companies seem to be a good sector to be in in the next year," said Soumendra Nath Lahiri, a manager at DSP Merrill Lynch Investment Management in Mumbai. "The organized retail segment can grow at between 30 percent and 35 percent in the next three to four years."

Pantaloon Retail India, the biggest Indian retailer, plans to spend $1 billion to open about 4,000 new stores by 2010. Reliance Industries, the largest Indian company, has opened 135 convenience stores and supermarkets in the year that ended March 31.

For the moment, competition from global retailers like Wal-Mart Stores and Carrefour is absent. The government limits overseas investment in the retail industry to single-brand merchants, preventing global chains from buying stakes in local companies or setting up their own stores.

The government has commissioned a study of the effect of big retailers on neighborhood shops.

Six in 10 of the biggest Indian retailers by market value failed to keep pace with the Sensex benchmark in 2006. The 10 stocks on average gained 35 percent, while the Sensex overall jumped 47 percent, its fifth consecutive increase. Retail stocks are still more expensive than their peers elsewhere in the region.

Higher expenses, resulting from new store openings, cut into profit margins, said Amnish Aggarwal, an analyst with Motilal Oswal Securities in Mumbai. The pressure on margins will ease as companies grow in size and the revenue from new stores as a percentage of total sales decreases, he said.

Pantaloon posted its slowest profit gain in at least five years in the year that ended June 30, 2006. In the past month, HSBC and Citigroup have raised their ratings on the stock on expectation that its performance would improve.

"Last year, Indian retailers didn't report good numbers," said Lahiri of DSP Merrill Lynch. "But with the rapid scaling up, I would expect them to post better earnings this year."

Share performances of many are already improving to reflect that expectation. Rajesh Exports, a retailer of gold jewelry, has gained 85 percent in the past year; Titan Industries, the biggest watch and jewelry retailer, is up 64 percent; and Shoppers' Stop is up 23 percent.

The rally means that stocks of retailers no longer are as cheap as they were. Pantaloon shares are valued at 103 times earnings for the past year, while Shoppers' Stop sells for 86 times earnings. Shares in the Bloomberg Asia-Pacific Retail Index are valued, on average, at 34 times earnings. Companies in the Sensex sell for 24.8 times earnings.

Meantime, retailers' costs are rising because their rents in cities including New Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore have almost doubled on average in the past year. The budget for the year to March 31 has imposed a 12.4 percent tax on commercial rents and that may pare profits. Retail companies spend about 6 percent to 9 percent of their sales on rent, according to Morgan Stanley.

"There will be pressure on margins because of the rise in rents, employee costs and logistics expenses," said Dipak Acharya at BOB Asset Management in Mumbai.

David Pezarkar of SBI Funds Management in Mumbai said, "You have to look at these stocks on a three- to four-year time horizon."
 
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Maharaja gets new clothes, and also video on demand

Post-merger with Indian, Air India readies for competition with all-new interiors for 6 aircraft at Rs 50 cr each, luxurious flatbeds for 1st class, in-flight entertainment for economy too
Lekha Agarwal


Mumbai, May 25: At Rs 300 crore, this is an expensive makeover, but fit for the Maharaja.

At the Air India engineering base at Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport, a Boeing 747-400 is getting the final touches after an exhaustive facelift, underway since February 1: The cabin is upgraded with all new economy seats, cushions and upholstery; the state-of-the-art i4000 Thales In-Flight Entertainment system is installed on every seatback including those in economy class, with audio and video on-demand, gaming and other interactive entertainment. There are microwave ovens for the business and first class galleys, brand new red carpets everywhere—even the staircase leading to the upper deck has been replaced.

As Air India readies to take on the world after its merger with Indian, all six Boeing 747-400s it owns—all its other aircraft are on lease—will soon be given the de luxe appearance.

“The prototype aircraft will be ready to take to fly on Wednesday,” said V Thulasidas, Chairman and Managing Director, Air India, after inspecting the progress on the refurbishment underway at the airline’s hangar. “While Air India reconfigures VVIP aircraft as per the need, this is the first time we are undertaking such a major in-house overhaul of our passenger aircraft,” he added.

“Costs would have been 60 per cent higher had we outsourced the refurbishment work,” said K M Unni, Director (Engineering) who is overseeing the project. The first and business class seats, upholstered a couple years ago, are also being tweaked to accommodate the new in-flight entertainment system. “All passengers will now have personal screens. In all, there is 415 gigabytes of content —that’s nearly 200 movies in languages like English, French, Japanese, plus some regional ones,” Unni added. Nearly 50 per cent of the cost was on the IFE, “as there was extensive wiring required as well as expensive individual monitors”.

Also ready: new overhead bins and aircraft side panels, a new overhead ceiling for the cargohold, fresh coat of paint for the side trims, cockpit trims and door trims and new galleys and toilets supplied by Jamco, a Japanese cabin interior equipment provider.

While Heath Tecna was selected for the interior scheme and components like ceiling panel, trims and overhead bins, Texas-headquartered Weber Aircraft LP is providing the seats.

Meanwhile, Air France is coordinating with all the vendors “for overall control of the project and facilitating the Supplemental Type Certificate required for Federal Aviation Administration approval,” Unni added.

The first post-makeover Boeing 747 is the one christened ‘Agra’, the fifth aircraft purchased by the national carrier and inducted into service in October 1996. It should be operational by June 6, after required approvals from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation are received and is likely to be serviced on the Mumbai-London-Chicago route.

With two months for each aircraft’s makeover, all six- ‘Konark’ (VT-ESM), ‘Tanjore’ (VT-ESN), ‘Khajuraho’ (VT-ESO), ‘Ajanta’ (VT-ESP), ‘Agra (VT-EVA)’, ‘Velha Goa’ (VT-EVB)—will be ready by mid-2007. “This was the prototype aircraft, and there were some teething problems, which will not delay the following five aircraft” according to Unni.

These six planes are the only ones from the current fleet that will be retained and be joined by the 68 new aircraft Air India has ordered with US aircraft manufacturer Boeing at a cost of $ 11.6 billion.
 
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India's Inflation For W.e May 12 Drops To 5.27% From 5.44% A Week Ago

Friday, May 25, 2007 7:50:26 AM - Friday, the 25th May, the Central Statistical Office, GOI, while releasing its customary inflation data said that the annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices for the week ended 12/05/2007 provisionally fell to 5.27% from 5.44% a week ago. The annual rate of inflation stood at 4.63% as on 13/05/2006 i.e. a year ago. India's inflation has been steadily coming down of late from the peak 6,77% in early 2007, in line with the government's intentions and pronouncements. The RBI's pro -active gestures to rein in inflation are showing visible results of late and moving toward the targeted number of 5% in the mid term of this fiscal and 4 to 4.5% in the long term.

The communiqué added that the official Wholesale Price Index for 'All Commodities' for the week ended 12/05/07 provisionally rose by 0.1% to 211.7 from 211.4% for the previous week. The main index for Primary articles, which has a weightage of 22.02%, rose by 0.5% from the previous week due to higher prices of naphtha and aviation turbine fuel. However, the prices of bitumen declined. Among the Primary articles, the sub index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.7% due to higher prices of eggs, fruits & vegetables, milk and jowar. However, the prices of maize declined. The sub index for 'Non-Food Articles' group among Primary articles rose marginally to 203.4 from 203.3 for the previous week due to higher prices of raw wool and sunflower. However, the prices of raw jute declined. The index for the major group of Fuel, Power, Light & Lubricants, with an overall weightage of 14.23% was unchanged at its previous week's level of 321.8. The index of Manufactured Products, which has a major weightage of 63.75% in the computation, rose by 0.1% from the previous week.

Among the various sub groups that make up the manufactured products group, the index for 'Food Products' group declined by 0.6%, the index for 'Textiles' group declined by 0.1% and the index for 'Paper & Paper Products' group declined by 0.1%.On the other hand, the index for 'Rubber & Plastic Products' group rose by 0.6%and the index for 'Chemicals & Chemical Products' group rose by 0.1%. The index for 'Basic Metals Alloys & Metal Products' group rose by 0.9% and the index for 'Machinery & Machine Tools' group rose by 0.2%.

Changes in provisional figures

The CSO added that, the final wholesale price index for 'All Commodities' stood at 209.6 for the week ended 17/03/2007 as compared to the provisionally announced figures of 209.4 and annual rate of inflation based on final index, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 6.56% as compared to the provisional 6.46%.
 
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Saturday, May 26, 2007

Vietnam, India’s Tata to sign $3.5b steel deal

HANOI: State-run Vietnam Steel Corp is to sign an agreement on May 29 with India’s Tata Steel Ltd for a steel complex, a VSC executive said on Friday.

The government said the total investment would be $3.5 billion.

VSC Chairman Mai Van Tinh said in an invitation sent to Reuters that the Vietnamese firm would sign a memorandum of understanding with Tata on Tuesday in Hanoi, following government approval granted on May 18.

The steel complex, to be built in the central province of Ha Tinh, 340 km south of Hanoi, would refine iron ore from Thach Khe mine to produce 4.5m tonnes of steel products per year, the government has said.

It was not clear how much of investment each side would contribute to build the complex but the major steel project, along with those planned by South Korea’s POSCO, could help Vietnam reduce its reliance on steel imports.

A robust demand of the construction sector has prompted January-to-May’s imports of steel and billets to jump 39.5 percent from a year earlier to 3 million tonnes. The import value would also soar 64.7 percent to $1.7 billion, the office said in its monthly report.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\05\26\story_26-5-2007_pg5_22
 
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Saturday, May 26, 2007

Social security for 370m workers: India unveils ambitious welfare plan

NEW DELHI: India has unveiled an ambitious plan to provide healthcare and pension benefits for the first time to an estimated 370 million workers outside the existing welfare safety net, officials said Friday.

“It is revolutionary scheme, a key programme ... aimed at taking care of the most vulnerable sections of the unorganised sector workers,” cabinet spokesman and Information Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmushi told reporters. Workers in India’s formal sector already pay contributions for pensions and health insurance, but they make up a mere seven percent of the country’s workforce.

The new legislation, approved by the cabinet late Thursday and subject to parliamentary approval, aims at extending those benefits to about 370 million people who work in the so-called unorganised sector - in areas such as agriculture, construction, weaving and fishing. “There is also a section of people who are self-employed. They, too, are not covered by any social security programmes,” a labour ministry official said.

The proposed scheme involves workers being given personal “smart cards” and having to pay the equivalent of one rupee a day at local registration centres, officials said. The government said the “Unorganised Sector Worker’s Social Security Bill,” a pledge of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after his election in 2004 on a pro-poor ticket, will be presented to parliament in July.

The cabinet spokesman gave no details on how much the scheme would cost the country, but said the financial burden would be shared between the state and federal governments with the latter shouldering the bulk of costs.

The labour ministry official said India’s federal budget already included a commitment to spend an initial sum of 10 billion rupees ($245 million) for a life insurance scheme for workers in the unorganised sector. “This is an initial pledge. As the scheme takes shape after parliament gives approval, more money will be allocated for different programmes in a phased manner,” the official said.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\05\26\story_26-5-2007_pg4_15
 
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Trend watch: Mumbai- an International Financial centre

Mumbai, a cluster of seven fishermen islands in 15th century, grabbed the attention of various rulers in history because of its strategic location and port advantage, lucarative for economic and subsequently empire expansion. In 16th and 17th century East India Company spread its arms over the important trading port, which pulled various businessmen and industrialists towards itself. Gradually, the island acquired a prominent status in the nation`s economy supported by its erstwhile basic amenities and public services. In recent period, large number of prime financial regulators and financial firms, who preferred to settle here were at a concensus to offer Mumbai the status of the `Financial Capital `of the India.

Thus, though type has changed over time, the harbor hasn`t lost its charm and continues to be a cynosure among economic agents. Government`s aspirations for the city have reached a new height wherein the city is getting all geared to step on to a new pedestal of making Mumbai an `International Financial Hub`.

In March 2006, Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh talked of making Mumbai a regional financial centre. After a year, the High Powered Experts Committee (HPEC) set by the government submitted its report on creating an International Financial Centre (IFC)in Mumbai parallel to Tokyo, London, Singapore Dubai etc.

The committee is looking forward to connecting the Indian financial system with the world`s financial markets through the IFS within five years from now. Going forward, by 2020, it is veraciously yearning to adorn Mumbai to compete with Global Financial Centre (GFCs), beyond Indian needs; after which HPEC dreams the Mumbai competing with other GFCs and acquiring increasing global marekt share.

International Financial Centre, considerably different from current KPO/BPO business units, provides highly valued and innovative financial services wherein the capital is highly mobile internationally. These centres specialize in providing services like raising funds for corporates, asset management and global portfolio diversification along with personal wealth management and global/regional corporate treasury management operations. Global transfer pricing, global tax management and cross-border tax liability optimization, and Financing for Global/Regional Public-Private Partnerships also come under its domain.

With greater mobility of capital flows and increasing integration of the economies, the demand for these high valued services is expected to aggrandize in the coming years. Besides, India itselft is anticipating to become the biggest consumer of the same, on back of its booming economic growth and two-way cross border financial flows.

If the Indian economy gets engineered for 9-10% growth on sustainable basis, the estimates reflect that IFS purchases by Indian households and corporate will rise to USD 70 billion by 2015 and USD 120 billion by 2025.

Hence the most viable option is to develop such a centre in India itself which will prevent large outflow of money going to to Global Financial Centre (GFC) in the form of fees.

On top of that India enjoys competitive advantages in creating IFC at Mumbai mainly powered by skilled human capital and strategic location among other IFCs.
Extensive use of English, financial professionals with generation of experience in entrepreneurship, speculation, risk taking and accounting accompanied with strong skills in information technology and quantitative thinking are strengths of Indian professionals.

Further, Mumbai location is apt to interact with all of Asia and Europe through the trading day. India`s democracy and rule of laws also eliminates political uncertainty, and provides legislative, judicial and regulatory frameworks for market players. Mumbai`s most dynamic and technologically capable securities trading platforms (NSE and BSE), provides ground for the region to takeoff as an IFC.

These formidable advantages, no doubt point out the genuine opportunity for India to create an IFC, however, overall assessment of macro economic condition, financial regime governance and regulation and urban infrastructure that exists in Mumbai are likely to constrain the ambitious objective of the government.

A cross country assessment signalize India`s weakness on front of legal and regulatory freamwork governing its financial system. It has been observed that most services provided by IFCs are either banned or severely proscribed in India. Similarly, credibility of an IFC is a function of on government`s efforts to attain the commitments on macro economic stability. It also improves the optimum use of country`s available resources. Deficiencies in urban infrastructure and lack of world class infrastructure in the city are likely to limit the growth of the city as an IFC by decentralizing human talents and financial firms from the city in future.

High Powered Expert committee (HPEC) constituted by experts in financial field, hence put a road map and recommends several policy changes for making Mumbai an international financial hub instead of regional one.

On Macro economic environment: Emphasizing strong co-relation between stable macroeconomic environment and sound financial system, the committee has focused on size on fiscal deficits and debts which had highly influenced the policy decision since independence and thus, having greater impact in framing current financial system. Political and economic pressure of financing fiscal deficit has affected evolution of the Indian financial system, and might continue if the correct steps are not taken at this point of time. Hence following recommendations take shape:

A reduction in the gross consolidated fiscal deficit to 4-5% of GDP. IFCs with fiscally incontinent domestic economies bring threats of endogenous or exogenous shocks, and reduce confidence of market participants. Hence the committee has recommended that governments at all levels (central, state and local) need to exert greater political will over the next five years and beyond to reduce their respective fiscal deficits.

Progressive reduction of the total public debt to GDP ratio from the current level of 80%of GDP to significantly less. To attain this, along with targeting the fiscal deficit, sale of public assets at all levels of government is estimated to contribute extensively.

Elimination of transaction taxes and imposition of Goods and Services Tax (GST) to financial services industry to form an competitive IFC.

In attempt to reduce over dependency on domestic financial market to finance public debt, INR denominated instruments issued by Indian government should be available to anyone across the maturity spectrum.

Shift the burden of future infrastructure investment from the public to the private sector through Public- Private Partnership (PPPs) to provide public goods and services on an appropriately structured basis that avoids the risk of privatising profits while socialising costs.

On monetary policy fronts: The committee having the view that monetary authority should not assign tasks where multiple conflicts-of-interests can emerge, as the for solution of such problems leads to sub-optimal decisions on adjusting the base rate such as inflation.

The committee recommends monetary authority to exclusively focus on the single task of managing price stability consistent with supporting a high growth rate.

To speed up on recommendations of Tarapore-2 committee on CAC, which also studies exchange rate management and suggests for gradual evolutiono of the INR into becoming a global reserve currency by 2025

Capital account convertibility (CAC): Capital account needs to be liberalised more rapidly by the end of calendar 2008 at the latest.

On Financial regime, Governance and Regulation :
HPEC stressed on immediate requirement of openness and outward-orientated of the
Indian financial system to enhance its technology, efficiency, productivity,competitiveness and quality. It is essential to make the entire financial system more efficient so that it can offer world-class financial services to the domestic market and intermediate financial resources more efficiently for use in the real economy as well. It urges policy-makers revisit carefully the nature of the financial regime governance so as to make it more competitive, less fragmented, and more innovative.

The committee accentuated on reform of legal system as a part of financial regime governance. It has suggested to create International Financial Services Appellate Tribunal (IFSAT), which offers a comprehensive appeals procedure against all actions of all financial regulators, where judges have specialised financial domain
knowledge.

It urges the easy entry of global legal firms, accounting firms tax advisory information technology business consulting and education firms that operates or supports IFS industry in Mumbai.

Artificial barriers between different segments of financial market that is banking insurance, capital markets, asset management activities and derivatives markets should be dismantled. It has urged to rearranged a regulatory architecture with an aim of meeting market needs instead of arranging market to meet the demands of regulatory convenience.

Government should prepare for an exit strategy through reduction in its ownership of financial firms to trigger more healthy competition which would result into more efficient units. HPEC recommends to go slow to avoid serious conflicts among shareholders by reducing the state`s present shareholding in all types of financial firms to below 49% by end- 2008, below 26% by end-2010, and towards a full exit by 2015.

Government of India should conduct a periodic (3-5 yearly) Regulatory Impact Assessment of the financial regulatory regime with an aim of to evaluate, using enhanced cost-benefit methodology, how efficient and cost-effective extant regulation (policy, practice, application, and institutional arrangements) is in meeting the main regulatory objectives, and to understand what modifications are needed to improve it.

A migration from rules-based regulation to principles based regulation, will evolve rapidly toward unified regulation. A single regulator for all financial services is expected to avoid problems of co-ordination or of matters falling between regulatory cracks when regulation is more fragmented. In the same direction, the present legislation is asked to be revamped and redrafted into a new Financial Services Modernization Act.

A key task in reforming regulatory architecture is to place all regulatory and supervisory functions connected with all organized financial trading (currencies, bonds, equities, corporate bonds, commodity derivatives; whether exchange-traded or OTC) into SEBI.

India should immediately open up to Direct Market Access (DMA) on Indian exchanges to match the situation with foreign exchanges in other IFCs that provide a hospitable environment for algorithmic trading.

The committee has stressed on developing the bond-currency derivatives (BCD) nexus which is underdeveloped in the Indian financial system. An established INR yield curve which is liquid and well-traded along maturities ranging from the very short (7-days) to the very long (30 or 50 years) and arbitrage free also recognized as prerequisite for a domestic bond market as a part of an IFC.

To issue and trade bonds in other foreign currencies and removal of quantitative restrictions on FIIs and other global investors to invest in INR denominated bonds. HPEC has urged to implement R,H. Committee`s recommendations on domestic debt markets. Moreover on BCD nexus, the committee has asked for currency trading exchange in Mumbai, with minimum transaction size of INR 10 million.

Urban infrastructure- The group expects world class infrastructure in its all possible sub-segments like commercial and residential; physical and telecommunication etc for Mumbai based IFC to be competitive globally. For the same, suggests that the impressive and laudable combined efforts being made by central, state and civic authorities, complimented by the active support of the private corporate sector should be enhanced and supported by multilateral financing institutions and PPP arrangements
in every sub-sector of infrastructure. The authorities should invite the open participation of foreign construction and development firms alongside their Indian counterparts to ensure that Mumbai`s infrastructure deficit is covered in the next 10 years. Moreover, the reform-oriented committee opined to have a City Manager and an administrative apparatus for Mumbai.

The implementation of these recommendations; as correctly pointed by the committee, requires a repetition of history ; dismantling autarkic license-permit raj; this time in the finance industry. However, it can be noted that the committee`s report which has presented significant diagnostic weakness and a list of policy recommendations after a detail analysis of present scenario and requirements for Mumbai to emerge as an IFC, are jubilantly coincide with prerequisite of creating a sound and competitive financial system, necessary for a growing economy like India.
 
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Sunday, May 27, 2007

Indian sugar industry heads for more trouble

NEW DELHI: India’s sugar industry, plagued by problems of plenty, is in for more trouble with forecasts of a bumper crop for the second year in a row.

Sugar output in the year starting October could exceed 28 million tonnes, one million tonnes more than the projected record production this year.

The industry’s woes started last October when the new season began with an inventory of four million tonnes of sugar. Trade officials say stocks at the end of the season would amount to 10 million tonnes, compounding the industry’s problems.

“Now, what are you going to do with all the stocks, are you going to sink it in the sea?” asked Shanti Lal Jain, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association.

Last week, the International Sugar Organization put the global supply surplus at above nine million tonnes this season, compared with its previous forecast of 7.2 million made in February.

Bumper supplies led by Brazil have pushed sugar futures to a 16-month lowh of $310 per tonne in mid-April. The benchmark August contract is around $335 per tonne.

India’s prospects are being hemmed in by the glut, which some industry analysts believe could persist into the season starting October 2008.

“Something needs to be done, and done urgently. This problem is going to become more and more gigantic,” Jain said.

The government last month said sugar mills in coastal areas would get a subsidy of 1,350 rupees a tonne, while those in the north of the country would receive 1,450 rupees per tonne to help prop up exports.

But the incentive was meant only for white sugar.

Analysts said the move has not helped much as buyers in the region, including Bangladesh, Pakistan and Middle East nations, have recently set up their own refineries, blunting demand for Indian white sugar.

Export squeeze: “If the situation has to change, the only way is for India to become a regular exporter, and that too of raw sugar,” Jain said.

“In raw sugar, India has a distinct advantage in freight costs over Brazil and Thailand in exports to the region. But what it needs is a policy mechanism to boost its exports.”

The strengthening rupee hovering close to a nine-year high for a month, has also blown a hole in exports with margins falling by 10-20 percent.

“There has been a slowdown in exports because even domestic prices are better than exports now,” said Ajit Chougule, secretary of Maharashtra State Coop Sugar Factories Federation Ltd.

Local prices have fallen to about 12,000 rupees ($295.8) per tonne, from about 18,000 rupees a year ago.

“The government has done the damage and they should know how to control it,” said M Manickam, managing director of Sakthi Sugar, referring to a ban on exports in July last year which industry officials say is the root cause of the problem.

Since then, the government has tried hard to help sugar cane farmers get paid by mills on time and reduce stocks through export incentives.

Industry officials said the government was also thinking of doubling the buffer stock to 4 million tonnes from two million tonnes, which they said might help prices stabilise briefly. But trade officials say help was too little and too late.

Profits of many sugar companies have nosedived in the January-March quarter, with domestic prices falling below production costs and no sign of a recovery for months.

“Next year will be even worse,” said GSC Rao, executive director of Simbhaoli Sugar

“Sugar companies are likely to register heavy losses unless the government and state government do something to improve the situation,” he added.

Analysts said the cycle of low prices was expected to continue for more than a year.

“There is no hope of recovery in prices until the next season. It will be more or less flat at these levels, may be four to five percent here or there,” said Shardul Sharma, an analyst at Sharekhan.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\05\27\story_27-5-2007_pg5_24
 
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India’s economy to overtake Japan by 2025: BoJ chief

TOKYO: India’s economy will overtake the Japanese economy by 2025 to rank third in the world after the United States and China in terms of purchasing power parity, Japan’s central bank chief predicted Monday.

Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui also urged India to loosen restrictions on capital flows and develop domestic bond markets so as to further integrate itself into the global economy.“Everyone recognises the large and varied influence India is having on the world,” he said told a symposium in Tokyo.

“If we extend the current (growth) rate, India’s purchasing power parity will exceed that of Japan by around 2025 and will rank third after the United States and China,” he added. Fukui also pressed India to minimise environmental damage and take steps to boost energy efficiency to help curb high energy prices.

India is expected to report on Thursday that its economy expanded at a record 9.2 per cent in the past financial year despite a series of monetary tightening measures by the central bank to cool inflation, analysts say.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=58033
 
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