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The boom region
India is in the race to catch up with international players in the tourism arena, says Bernd Kubisch

India's tourism, aided not least by the country's sustained economic upsurge, continues to signal double-digit growth rates. In 2006, the Golden Triangle with the Taj Mahal, the beaches of Goa, the backwaters of Kerala, the temples of Mahabalipuram and the subcontinent's other attractions lured more visitors than ever before.

What is making fewer headlines, although many other countries are feeling the benefit, is that the Indians are themselves travelling increasingly and spending more and more abroad. Many may be surprised to learn that already in 2005 roughly the same number of Indians visited Germany as Germans did the sub-continent - a good 1,30,000 people.

After hefty growth rates last year, the signs for inbound and outbound tourism point to continued growth in 2007. According to Bernhard Steinrucke, director general of the Indo-German Chamber of Commerce, India's international economic importance and importance for tourism continues to increase substantially. "The country is one of the world's most interesting boom regions," he said.

Flourishing tourism with 4.4 mn guests

India's economy is growing year-on-year at between eight to ten per cent, and foreign investments are rising. In 2006, foreign trade with Germany reached 10 billion Euro for the first time, according to the Chamber of Commerce in Mumbai.

Steinrucke lists India's advantages: a well educated middle class and many ambitious young people, particularly in the high-tech sector. These are now represented throughout the world in high positions. "Without the Indians" says the economics expert, "Silicon Valley would have to close down."

When the economy is booming, tourism also grows, says Ashok Kumar Mishra, secretary at the ministry of tourism in India. But he believes that the country's advertising campaigns, too, are playing their part, as are many public and private initiatives. According to a forecast by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), over the next 10 years Indian will be among the fastest growing countries in the world, with an annual growth rate of 8.6 per cent. "Our current growth rates in tourism exceed this," says Mishra. Tourism, in the ministry's view, has also benefited particularly from the liberalisation of aviation and easing of regulations on foreign investment. In 2006, 4.4 million guests from around the world visited the subcontinent, an increase of 13 per cent, according to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). Giriraj Singh Kushwaha, Europe director of Indiatourism in Frankfurt, reported that the number of guests arriving from Germany last year climbed from 1,30,000 to an estimated 1,40,000, and he is optimistic that this upward trend will continue in 2007.

Successful rivals are waiting

Whatever the jubilation at this growth, one of the reasons why tourism is booming now is the country's failure in the past to advertise its attractions abroad. For a long time the tourism industry was like Sleeping Beauty, waiting to awaken from a long sleep. The focus was on developing the agricultural sector and industry. Holidaymakers who visited Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Orissa 20 years ago, for example could scarcely believe how few foreign guests they encountered in this fascinating country.

India's tourism figures have not yet put it among the leaders in Asia. The competition is not lying dormant and a number of rivals are already enjoying great success. India is currently recording only about a third of the number of foreign visitors that Thailand receives and has fewer visitors than South Korea (Republic of Korea). Differentials in value added and income between India and the Republic of China or Japan continue to be very large. According to UNWTO, the People's Republic of China leads the field in Asia with just under 50 million arrivals in 2006.

International recognition for Incredible India

According to the World Tourism Barometer published by UNWTO in Madrid in February, the Incredible India campaign has contributed to the steady rise in the country's profile and has had a positive effect on stimulating demand. It lists improved tourism products, the expansion of aviation and the many new low-cost carriers as other reasons for success. According to UNWTO, spending by tourists in India rose from US$ 6,170 billion in 2004 to US$ 7,478 billion in 2005. There was a 19 per cent increase up to September 2006.

Expansion of hotel and airport capacity

High growth rates alone are not everything. India's tourism minister, Ambika Soni, is anxious to avoid frantic growth to ensure that the infrastructure including the transport system and hotels can keep pace with demand. Kerala is a case in point. The efforts of the regional tourism authority to showcase the state on the Arabian Sea around the world as a must-see destination continue to be successful.

But initially the number of guests grew faster than the number of hotel rooms. In some places there were not enough rooms to cope with demand. Two years ago the regional press reported that marketing successes could create problematic situations. Currently the number of midrange and luxury class hotel rooms in Kerala is increasing by 15 per cent a year, according to Jose Dominic, president of the Kerala Travel Mart (KTM) Society. Anyone landing at Thiruvanathapuram International Airport a few months ago could see that the airport was operating at full capacity. Today, expansion of hotels and roads is progressing with airport privatisation speeded up.

Training for taxi drivers, travel guides

According to the motto of its campaign, which in Sanskrit reads 'Atithi Devo Bhava' - guest is god, the tourism ministry in New Delhi wants workers in the sector to treat customers better than kings. Over 26,000 taxi drivers, travel guides and restaurant managers are being specially trained in hospitality, with the first phase of the training being staged in cities such as New Delhi, Mumbai, Jaipur and Goa. Over six per cent of India's workforce now works in the tourism industry. The government is also supporting the creation of jobs in rural tourism through local crafts, traditional folklore and culture. It is hoped that by 2010 a total of 25 million new jobs will have been created in tourism, according to a report by the eTurboNews media service in New Delhi.

Indians are coming

With a population of over 1.1 billion people and GDP growth of over eight per cent per year, India, as Nancy Cockerell, The Travel Business Partnership's editorial director told a PATA workshop in Hong Kong in September 2006, offers enormous potential for future growth of outbound travel. By as early as 2008 it is likely that Indians will be spending more than four billion US dollars on foreign travel. The country's middle class is an estimated 300 million. And, said Cockerell, these people are beginning to demand higher quality when they travel. Steinrucke says, "For Germany, too, the country is becoming an increasingly important source market". According to figures from DZT, the German National Tourist Board, some 1,31,000 Indians made business trips to or visited friends and family in Germany in 2005, making Germany the second most important market in Europe after Great Britain (272,000 arrivals). DZT figures indicate that they stayed an average of 11 nights and spent 121 Euros per day.

Growth of air travel

The Indian air travel market is defined by growing competition and more low-cost carriers as well as mergers of airlines. At the same time international airlines are considerably expanding their routes. The national carriers, Air India and Indian, which are to merge, offer lower prices, for example, to Great Britain and Thailand. In each case it is the customer who benefits.

Airports, airlines and fleets have been considerably enlarged and modernised, Robert J Aaronson, director general of Airports Council International (ACI), said. The fleet of airlines, he reported, currently numbers 270 aircraft; 480 are to be delivered and brought into service within the next seven years. Aaronson also quoted an example of this breakneck growth: in August 2004 there were 34 non-stop services between India and Great Britain each week. Two years later, in August 2006, the figure had risen to 121.

Air traffic between Germany and India is also experiencing tremendous growth. The number of Lufthansa flights almost tripled between 2000 and 2007. Spokesman Boris Ogurksy says, "We now have 45 non-stop flights from Frankfurt and Munich to India a week, more flights between Europe and India than any other carrier." The German airline now flies to six destinations: Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata.

"Lufthansa has plans for further expansion in India", says Ogursky. "The market has a lot of potential. Since 2004 Lufthansa and Air India have offered customers 402 flights a week under a codeshare arrangement." Lufthansa, he reports, regard the merger of Air India and Indian positively since it will strengthen their position in the Indian market. Sri Lankan Airlines, too, is looking to increase its services to its neighbour in the course of the year to over 100 flights a week, according to Nicky Samarasinghe, its director for Germany and Italy. The airline currently serves 10 destinations in India. It hopes that new destinations in the schedule such as Goa will encourage travellers from Germany to fly to India via Colombo.

The wealthy and pensioners are coming

The first hippies arrived in India's smallest state on the Arabian Sea in the sixties, the first German package tourists in the eighties. Since then countless Bollywood stars have been building luxury villas in Goa. Today Condor planes are also full of pensioners who spend a few winter months there to take advantage of the agreeable climate and favourable prices. "Since Condor is the only airline in Europe to offer non-stop flights to Goa, the demand from international guests too is very high," says spokeswoman, Nina Dumbert. The company flies there twice a week. "Tourism has become the most important branch of our economy," says Goa's deputy tourism director, Pamela Maria Mascarenhas.

Further north in the state of Maharashtra with its metropolis Mumbai and the centre of the Bollywood film industry, things are more businesslike and brisk. Bhushan Gagrani, managing director of Maharashtra Tourism Development Corporation, is seeking to ensure that visitors to the big city and business guests get to know the attractions of the surrounding area. "Today there is better co-operation between state bodies and the private sector. We are working well together. In some places there is a shortage of new hotels," says the director, who wants to further open up the 720-kilometre coastline and 400 or so historic forts to tourism.

Luxury hotels in demand

Luxury tours are much in demand today, including round trips in the north and in the Himalayas with night stops in palace hotels, as well as exclusive trips by boat through the backwaters of Kerala, complete with cook and butler. In the Golden Triangle comprising the cities of New Delhi, Jaipur and Agra, demand has led to a shortage of good quality rooms.

German operators are also reporting that prices are rising. As of now, India has some 1,00,000 tourist class hotel rooms. To cover growing demand and to have a share of lucrative business, international hotel chains and brands such as Accor, Ibis, Regent, Radisson, Marriott and Shangri-La are planning new and additional investments. Homegrown companies too, like Oberoi and Taj Hotels, are expanding. "Competition is revitalising business and doing India good. We are very pleased with how well we are doing," says Gev Patel, director of sales at Taj Hotels Resorts & Palaces. The company, which is part of the Tata Group, has 73 hotels, 56 of them in India, and wants to expand further.

Something for everyone

India's strength is that there is something to suit every taste and every pocket. Even the ayurveda movement has long since embraced exclusivity. At Kalari Kovilakom in Kerala, for example, a maximum of 18 guests seeking purity and harmony for nature, body and soul are looked after by some 50 staff members.

In the former maharajah's palace traditional ayurvedic healing therapies are offered as they have been for centuries. Dr Jouhar Kanhirala, a doctor at the centre, reports that German tourists in particular are interested in authentic treatments both there and in India in general. One day at Kalari Kovilakom can cost up to US$ 400.

Ginger Hotels, part of the Taj Group, is a new chain established for businesspeople and cost-conscious travellers which offers rooms from as little US$ 25. In Periyar Park in Kerala, home to tigers and elephants, many families offer home-stays, benefiting from a tax exemption if they rent out fewer than six rooms. "This brings us all extra income," says Sujatha Murali who offers five rooms in her Mickey's Cottage at prices starting at US$ 10.

Quicker visas

If it were not for the fact that most of India's source markets are subject to a visa requirement, tourism growth rates might look quite different. "The average tourist spends around US$ 2,000 in India," says R Parthiban, director of Swagatham Tours & Travel. Tourists canceling their trip because of visa problems, he says, mean financial losses for travel agents, incoming operators and the Indian economy. Tourism minister, Ambika Soni, wants to ensure that tourists do not have to wait longer than 36-48 hours for their visa. She also told Kerala Travel Mart (KTM) 2006 that multiple visas would be issued to promote travel to India.

German operators are positive

TUI reinstated India in its winter programme two years ago. "Currently bookings are still lagging behind our expectations, but we can certainly see potential in this multi-faceted country," reports spokesperson, Alexa Huner. Air tours product manager, Jordis Scherer, reports that luxury hotels in the north as well as the new wellness hotels and luxury safari lodges are particularly popular.

Meanwhile, Gebeco claims an upward trend in bookings for India trips and expects this to continue in 2007. Less well-known regions are to be added to the programme to tempt returning guests. One of the areas India is focusing on is religious and health tourism. "There is still a lot of potential for trips to famous sacred places in our country, as well as stays including affordable treatments and operations in international standard clinics," says Dr Singh Sikand, tourism advisor and lecturer in religious tourism at the Universities of Frankfurt am Main and Mainz.
 
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India: Land of promise

Going by the way the world is looking at India and tracking down it's every move across sectors and industries, one can easily conclude that 'India' is the latest 'catch-word' or should we say 'cash-word' for growth. The Indian aviation sector is no exception and top of the line on the radar of the global aviation business.

According to aviation experts, India would require 1,000 aircrafts in the next 12 to 13 years, while passenger traffic would go up six times, from 32 million to 180 million, with investment opportunities in airports and infrastructure estimated to rise to around US$ 120 billion. Speaking about India's aviation potential, Praful Patel, minister for civil aviation, Government of India, said, "Aviation acts as a catalyst in integrating the world. The last few years have seen new impetus in aviation as it facilitates economic growth, equitable development and generates employment. India has seen a 25 per cent annual compounded growth in three years with a 50 per cent growth in the domestic sector and 20 per cent in the international sector. India has a total of approximately 300 aircrafts now and the number of air travellers come to about 0.8 per cent of the population. By the time even 10 per cent of the population begins to fly, we will need about 5,000 aircrafts." He further added that India for the next 10 years would enjoy a compounded growth of about 25 per cent in the aviation sector, which will be sustained for the next 10 to 15 years. He attributed the reason for this growth to the liberalisation of the regime and the proactive bi-laterals which have minimised restrictions in the free flow of passengers.

According to civil aviation ministry estimates, Indian airports are likely to handle 400 million passengers per annum by 2020. The projections for Mumbai are similarly huge. Mumbai is expected to handle 91 million passengers by 2030-31, from the current 20 million. According to government sources, the proposed Navi Mumbai International Airport would cost around Rs 4,235 crore and will be run on a public-private partnership basis through an SPV. While the Airport Authority of India and Maharashtra's City and Industrial Development Corporation will jointly hold 26 per cent in the SPV, a private partner is expected to retain the balance 74 per cent.

The US interest

Taking this cue and to further promote greater collaboration between the US and Indian aviation sectors, US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), in partnership with the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), lead by Marion C Blakey, administrator, FAA and the ministry of civil aviation (MOCA), Government of India, sponsored the first ever US - India Aviation Partnership Summit, in New Delhi from 23rd to 25th April, 2007. The three-day event, sought to encourage high-level dialogue between US and Indian government officials and private sector representatives on the development of India's aviation sector and the growing relationship between the two nation's industries and governments. Addressing the conference, US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) chief Marion C Blakey said there was great potential for a bilateral aviation safety agreement (BASA) and emphasised that though the formal negotiations and signing may take several years, the process of building mutual confidence in our respective certification processes and technical expertise is something that can and should start today.

Apart from the government and trade officials, the summit was attended by leading American aviation firms. The US India Business Council (USIBC) chairman's circle members, Federal Express, Boeing, General Electric, Northrop Grumman, United Technologies, Pratt & Whitney, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Continental Airlines were represented by their respective senior executives. "The civil aviation industry in India is a dynamic multi-billion dollar opportunity for 'American Companies', said Ron Somers, president, US-India Business Council, "and this boom is creating new jobs and spurring the development of enhanced infrastructure in India."

"USTDA is focusing significant attention on India's aviation sector because we are interested in exploring ways to help our aviation systems grow together in mutually beneficial ways," said USTDA deputy director Leocadia I Zak. "Working in partnership with each other, we can achieve results that will shape the future and strengthen our respective systems." The extraordinary growth of India's economy has placed increased demands on the nation's aviation infrastructure to accommodate rising passenger and cargo volumes. As a result, India is facing enormous infrastructure development challenges as it strives to further enhance air service quality, airport efficiency, flight security, and air-space management.

Recognising the potential for further cooperation between the United States and India in the aviation sector, USTDA initiated a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the ministry of civil aviation, (MOCA), Government of India at the summit to establish the US - India Aviation Cooperation Program (ACP). The MOU was initiated by Zak and MOCA joint secretary R K Singh, on behalf of the US and Indian governments, respectively, in a ceremony following the opening plenary.

The ACP consists of a public-private partnership between USTDA, the FAA and many US aviation companies that will serve as a mechanism through which Indian aviation sector officials can work with US civil aviation representatives to highlight specific areas for bilateral technical cooperation. Initially, the ACP is expected to focus on activities that support air traffic/air space management enhancements and the challenge of rapidly increasing aviation traffic in India. Specific plans for upgrading the aviation sector are outlined in India's Policy on Airport Infrastructure, in which MOCA states that the establishment of a technologically advanced and systematically reliable air traffic control system is a key priority. Other objectives include expanding airport facilities, installing airport security and monitoring systems, establishing an information technology network to synchronise airport operations, and enforcing airworthiness certification and regulatory systems. To promote a discussion between representatives of the US and Indian aviation sectors regarding industry growth opportunities and challenges, the summit included sessions on air traffic management and airspace utilisation, and the promotion of commercial collaboration in the development of new airborne systems.

The US - India Aviation Partnership Summit took place in cooperation with the Airports Authority of India (AAI), the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), the US Departments of State and Commerce, the US Commercial Service, and the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII).

Reality check: Getting the house in order

Though the aviation sector of India is flying high, fortunately India's leaders and decision makers have their feet firmly on the ground. The civil aviation minister agreed that though on one side the opportunities are big in this sunrise sector, where the principles of an open economy will be followed, the other side is the bitter reality of poor infrastructure which is an issue of concern. But he also added that the government is working hard towards getting the systems in place and hence a partnership summit of such nature will only help improve the situation. "We can learn from other countries and apply their systems, practices and expertise in such a way that can enhance and strengthen the Indian aviation scenario and upgrade it to a world class standard," he said.

The modernisation of the Mumbai and New Delhi airports on the public-private partnership model is a positive sign and set towards India's progressive aviation approach. The minister further added that the policies will surely evolve as per requirements in order to bring about positive changes and increase connectivity in a meaningful way. Added Patel, "The government plans on relaxing the FDI norms and there are plans that it may enhance the 49 per cent FDI limit in areas such as helicopter services, sea-planes and non-scheduled operations."

Growth and safety: Siamese twins

The first session on the summit emphasised on the role and importance of balancing aviation safety and growth. They both go hand in hand and cannot be separated from each other. Both evolve and mature in order to meet international standards. Moderated by Robert Francis II, former vice chairman US National Transport Safety Board, the session had eminent speakers, like Nick Sabatini, associate administrator for aviation safety, FAA, Kanu Gohain, director general, DGCA, Vivek Lall, managing director, Boeing India, Dr Agam N Sinha, senior vice president and general manager, The Mitre Corporation and Saroj K Datta, executive director, Jet Airways (India). Said Datta, "Aviation and economic growth are closely related and the cascading impact is much more pronounced in the airline industry. With expected sustained long term growth of the Indian economy, air travel market in India will continue to grow to realise its full potential. But for growth to be real one has to work on the following: Permission for private carriers to fly to international destinations, increase of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limit to 49 per cent (investment by foreign airlines is not permitted), initiation of measures to improve aviation infrastructure, quick implementation of modernisation of airports in Mumbai and New Delhi, development of greenfield airports, modernisation of 35 other airports and permission to hedge fuel prices for uplift at international destinations.

Nick Sabatini mentioned that the four pillars of a safety management system are, 1) Policy 2)Safety risk management and design assessment, 3) Safety assurance and performance assessment and 4) Safety promotion. Vivek Lall, felt that to bring in the balance, cooperation between industry (manufacturers, airlines, IATA) and the government is vital. He also felt that recently, the industry's accident rate has improved considerably and the global nature of the aviation industry makes it impossible to put borders around safety issues.

Modernising strategies for airports (domestic and international)

This session highlighted the strategies and work flow methods of few airports both in the US and India. Presentations were made on the Mumbai, New Delhi and Cochin international airports about the systems and structures and how these airports operate.

Rudy Vercelli, COO, Mumbai International Airport said that the Mumbai airport is surely a challenge in itself and all we are trying to do now is maneouver around the infrastructure. Being the largest international airport in India and with 30 per cent of the total traffic, it needs to improve on infrastructure, passenger traffic handling and maintaining service standards.To cope with the increasing air traffic, the government has finally agreed on establishing a second airport at Navi Mumbai.

Similary the Delhi airport is also on its way to a major revamp and will accommodate another terminal to cater to the increasing passenger loads. This new model is going to be tried out for recovery of charges from different sources like shopping malls and other such businesses which will account to non air collections, said Pradeep Paniker, head strategy planning group, Delhi International Airport.

Cochin International Airport (CIAL) is another feather in the cap when it comes to airports in India. The airport is the first greenfield airport in India. It is a sponsored project built on the public-private-partnership model and has over 10,000 shareholders from different countries. "The airport has been built at the lowest budget ever and because of this we are now planning to specialise in low budget airport building," said S Bharath, managing director, CIAL. "We are also being approached by many different countries for the same," he revealed.

He informed that they were also developing a new model for recovering revenue through non-aviation services like development of IT parks, entertainment parks, golf courses, hotels and townships.

D Kirk Shaffer, talked about the FAA Airport Technology Research and Development, which touched upon the following: 1) Airport planning and design, 2) New large aircraft, 3) Advanced airport pavement designs, 4) Runway surface operations, 5) Airport wildlife hazards abatement 6) Aircraft rescue and fire fighting and 7) Visual guidance and runway incursion reduction.

Air traffic management: Systems, opportunities and challenges

This was probably one of the most talked about topics of the summit, especially keeping in view the Indian aviation scenario where air traffic management is the need of the hour and something that needs to be addressed with immediate effect.

The first presentation of the day made by Jeff Williams, manager, RNAV/RNP group, Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Organisation, discussed the growing challenges due to increasing air traffic generating demands on air space. As a result this increases the costs of fuel and compelling infrastructure expansion, improvement and maintenance. He identified these as the three major challenges for the future ahead and introduced the performance based navigation (PBN) as a cost effective way at producing measurable improvements in flight safety, system capacity, operational efficiency and new or improved airspace access.

For achieving the effectiveness of the PBN it is necessary for air traffic regulator agencies and stakeholders to work together in order to successfully implement Evolution of Area Navigation (RNAV) and Required Navigation Programme (RNP) capabilities in a country's airspace, he concluded.

Judy Marks, president, Lockheed Martin Transportation and Security Solution also emphasised on strengthening of ties between different agencies in order to cope up with the rapid growth in an attempt to make air travel safe and efficient. Making a next generation commitment she said that the interoperability and global harmonisation and integrated environment are the key focus areas. She also explained about the shared goals of safe separation, easy reliable travel and a secure environment.

Focusing on future initiatives Marks said that the critical expansion and improvement of infrastructure and also decongesting the choke points like the secondary airports and the terminal domains is vital. Modernisation plans of strategic alliances, inter alliances, satellite based system and interoperability using oceanic procedures, automatic surveillance and communications data links will help change the scenario. According to Charles Keegan, director, Future Air Navigation Systems, Raytheon, the infrastructure is undervalued. The challenge being that the implementation of infrastructure is not due to lack of planning or standards but due to financing. He opted for public private partnership as the most viable model of growth. "Its minimised impact on customers and sponsors, operational relationship with the private party and the long term sustainability all make it a preferred solution. Financing is most necessary for ATC modernisation which is necessary for the future," he reiterated.

Giving details of the Indian plans for overcoming traffic management problems, program director - satellite navigation, Indian Space Research Organisation, Dr S V Kibe said modern Indian airspace would soon be operating with the Indian satellite navigation program - GAGAN. The ISNP-GAGAN to be launched in the year 2009 would be managed jointly by ISRO and AAI. This regional satellite navigation system will placed in the L-5 band to facilitate navigation. This SBAS (satellite based augmentation system) will serve all the airports within the area and also support other augmentation techniques like the ground-based and the aircraft-based techniques. It is one of the most concrete efforts of upper airspace management that will link aircrafts to each other without using the ground ATC.

The air traffic management, AAI, general manager, V Somusundaram discussed the challenges faced by air traffic service providers and on how to meet their demands. "Effective airspace management can help bring coordination in civil and military use of airspace. An automatic air traffic management will help optimum usage of airspace with optimum capacity, prove cost effective, provide flexibility in operation and encourage cooperative decision making," he concluded.

Technology is available to enhance capacity, efficiency, safety and security. Exploitation of the strengths of airborne and ground-based systems and the integration of both is the key. Global collaboration would accelerate system modernisation and a comprehensive and committed plan will encourage investment to achieve airport and ATC efficiency and capacity. According to Christopher Benich, director of Aerospace Regulatory Affairs, the key drivers for growth are: capacity enhancing mobility and economic and industry growth; efficiency decreasing environmental impacts; safety ensuring continuous improvement and growth without degradation and security neutralising threats . "There are different objectives for airport surface and airport terminal area operations and both can be achieved by using technology which will enable solutions across all domains, optimise functional allocation and increase global harmonisation. All these well defined technology based plans will reduce investment risk," he said.

Also addressing the need of traffic flow management and metering, David Rhodes., director, Advanced Air Traffic Solutions, Civil Group, Computer Sciences Corporation said that an effective system will help keep traffic moving securely and efficiently powered by automated strategies overcoming severe weather and congestion. "Efficiency can only be achieved by balancing customer needs with responsibilities and development of technology minimising ill effects on environment", he stated.

The two enabling technologies for traffic flow management (TFM) and for metering, Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) helps smooth air traffic flow by collaborative decision making and decision support and execution tool to help optimise flow into capacity constrained areas using time based metering, spacing and sequencing respectively.

The two technologies help in maximising throughput, minimising delay, efficient use of capacity and fuel, enhancing safety, reducing pollution, making reliable schedules and predicting block times.

Aviation project development

Looking at aviation project development through maximising non aeronautical revenue development at airports saw a strong interest from the audiences. Michael A Hodges, MAI, president, Airport Business Solutions presented the importance of these revenues as they reduce costs to airlines. The opportunities helping make such revenues could be the public private partnerships, non essential property development and internal service providers. Golf courses, driving ranges, commercial and retail developments, industrial parks, hotels and automobile dealerships are examples of such properties that help create revenue and reduce airline costs. Also providing financing options was Jessica Farmer, senior project officer, Export-Import Bank of the US who gave details on structured finance and project-based finance.

Mallya magic: Saying it as it is

In his keynote address, Vijay Mallya, CEO, Kingfisher Airlines stated that the increasing purchasing power, exposure, aspirations and willingness to spend is making the Indian consumer upgrade to better things in life. He said that the 350 million strong middle class anticipated to increase to 400 million in the next three years is posing a difficult challenge for the policy makers and infrastructure developers.

The policies of the government will have to under go a revamp to cater to this boom. He highlighted the fact that government policies with regards to permitting domestic carriers to fly international is completely lopsided. "Today if an airline can fly Mumbai-Chennai, why can't it fly Mumbai-Colombo, keeping all other conditions the same," he questioned.

Airline management and operations in India

On the concluding day, there was a meeting of leading names from the Indian airline business, namely V Thulasidas, chairman and managing director, Air-India, (who also moderated the session on airline management and operations), Captain Gopinath, chairman and managing director, Air Deccan, Bruce Ashby, CEO, Indigo Airlines and R K Singh, joint secretary, ministry of civil aviation amongst others.

Speaking on the Air India and Indian merger, Thulasidas stated that the merger is a very sensible act as there is no point operating separately when both the companies are ultimately owned by one owner. "The merger will also make us stronger to face competition better. The merger will result in a large combined fleet of about 115 - 120 aircrafts. In the coming three years 64 aircrafts will be inducted making us the largest airline in Asia ensuring wider network and higher service quality," he further added. He also mentioned that he has put into force a committee to study the need to order for more aircrafts as he feels there will definitely be a demand for more in the future. Talks are also on for joining one of the global alliances resulting in seamless transfer to any place in the world. This merger is the most effective way to tap a market with 40 per cent growth figures. The launch of the new airline will happen in due course, he announced.

The challenges of capacity vs demand, full service vs low cost, sustainable needs and government intervention were some of the topics that were discussed by Singh, joint director, ministry of civil aviation. The legacy airlines have enough capacity while the new airlines are inducting fresh capacity. The trunk routes will get choked if more capacity is added, therefore new or regional routes should be used to divert traffic but in the long run even those will suffer from inadequate infrastructure, he opined.

He raised a very important question of how are low cost airlines called low cost when they pay the same cost for leasing of aircraft, airport charges, navigation charges and so on. This unfair plan has resulted in consolidation or mergers which seem necessary for survival. This trend is here to stay with more mergers stabilising the yields, introduction of new pair cities and regional airlines playing a big role.

Shifting the importance to engine manufacturing, Pratt and Whitney, senior vice president and general manager James Keenan said that in this growing market the development of MRO environment is important as it is a major driver of airline cost. Reducing green house emissions is one of the moral responsibilities and the challenges that would come in India's way in achieving this will be the regulatory burdens and bad infrastructure.

The transition period is now, said Bruce Ashby, CEO, Indigo Airlines. Considering the huge demand for air travel, the need for better infrastructure has gained momentum. The initiator of the low cost airline trend, Captain Gopinath said that as the new India is emerging new things are happening. Right now the country is on the rebound, it is a place of all possibilities. With markets opening and allowing deeper penetration it is the right time to connect the smallest of the cities with the major metros. Huge need for multiple airports in cities and speedy actions facilitated by the government will help take control over the market, he added. Speaking on the next generation air transportation system, Nick Sabatini, associate administrator for aviation safety, FAA said that moving to satellite and internet based systems will not only be safe but also be dependable. It will help achieve efficiency, safety, security and flexibility in operation.

US - INDIA AVIATION COOPERATION PROGRAMME

The US-India Aviation Cooperation Program (ACP), a public-private partnership between the US Trade Development Agency (USTDA), the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and US aviation companies, has been established to provide a forum for unified communication between the Government of India and US public and private sector entities in India. The ACP is designed to work directly with the Indian Government to identify and support India's civil aviation sector modernisation priorities.

The ACP's specific objectives are to: (i) promote enhanced safety, operational efficiency and system capacity in the Indian aviation sector; (ii) facilitate and coordinate aviation industry training and technical ties between the US and India; and (iii) strengthen overall US-India aviation cooperation. USTDA is providing funding for training and technical assistance programs and the FAA and US aviation companies are providing in-kind support.

The ACP will serve as a mechanism through which Indian aviation sector officials can work with US civil aviation representatives to highlight specific areas for technical cooperation. The ACP consists of both the US Government and private sector representatives, and its secretariat will function as the focal point for responding to Indian areas of interest by identifying appropriate training programs and other cooperative activities. The secretariat will be responsible for managing and organising the identified training and technical cooperation activities. Initially, the ACP intends to focus on activities that support air traffic/air space management enhancements and the challenge of rapidly increasing aviation traffic in India. The ACP will coordinate identified government and industry priorities in these areas, develop corresponding activities, and recommend activities that US Government agencies, such as USTDA and the FAA, and US private industry can support. Specific technical cooperation programs will depend on the priorities Indian and US officials identify, and may include training opportunities in India and the US, on-the-job training, and personnel exchange programs.


Aviation training

Moving to the most basic and essential contributors to safe, secure and reliable aviation, the session on the need for aviation training practices saw speakers from major aviation training institutes like the Indira Gandhi Rashtriya Udaan Academy, Delta Connection Academy and India Airlines academy.

With the aviation industry growing rapidly it needs more and more qualified pilots. India needs about 4500-500 pilots in the next five years, said air vice marshal Malahan, director, Indira Gandhi Rashtriya Udaan Academy. In order to meet this demand even more flying clubs and aviation training schools would be needed.

Also learning how to handle risk is one of the key areas of expertise for the pilots. Risk management is training in all aspects of aviation including air traffic control, maintenance and operations. It is about managing the safety resources to minimise the risk said Robert Francis, safety consultant, the Washington group.

The central training establishment of the India Airlines Academy has successfully trained many pilots, said Ron Nagar of Indian Airlines. The international major, Delta Airlines also informed about its Delta Connection Academy for aviation training. Captain Gary Beck, president Delta Connection Academy informed that the institute which is a subsidiary of Delta Airlines now has a fleet of over 100 aircraft, 200 flight instructors, 1.7 million hours of fatality free flights and has issued 4000 pilot licenses per annum.

The conference ended with a few general issues of aviation security that emphasised on creating a layered approach to security covering passenger security, bus parking, roadway security, behaviour pattern recognition, inspections, baggage screening, aircraft security and ramp security measures. The topic of air cargo development and infrastructure challenges was also touched upon at the summit.
 
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India emerging as a global doctor

[YOUTUBE]

Another video

[YOUTUBE]

Hey Dear, just reupload the videos as I want to view them ;)
 
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Hey Dear, just reupload the videos as I want to view them ;)

There you go buddy.. Here's the links

video #1


video #2
_______________________________________

BTW, what is the problem with viewing?
 
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Indian shares lure foreign funds, take Re to highest close in 9 years
The rupee gained 1.2% this week to 40.7375 against the dollar on the evening of 18 May in Mumbai

Sam Nagarajan/Bloomberg

New Delhi: The rupee advanced in the week to a nine-year high on speculation that overseas investors were drawn to the nation’s stocks, as the economy grows at the second-fastest pace in the world after China.

The currency rounded off a 10th five-day advance in 11 weeks, as funds abroad may add to last month’s $1.5 billion (Rs6,150 crore) Indian share purchases. The rupee was also supported as the central bank drained the currency from the market to help curb lending and keep inflation under control, said foreign exchange trader L.V. Prasad at IndusInd Bank Ltd in Mumbai.

“I’d be short on dollars because of the persistent flows that we’re seeing,” Prasad said. “The inflows and tight liquidity suggest a stronger rupee,” he added. A short position seeks to benefit from a currency’s decline.

The rupee gained 1.2% this week to 40.7375 against the dollar on the evening of 18 May in Mumbai, the strongest close since 22 May 1998. It strengthened to as much as 40.545 on 7 May, the highest intra-day price since May 1998.

It also gained after China widened the band in which the yuan trades to 0.5% from 0.3%, and told lenders to set aside more cash to curb lending, spurring speculation that India’s central bank will follow suit in allowing further gains in the local currency.

The rupee, the best performer in Asia among the 15 most-actively traded currencies, surged 8.7% this year.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy of mopping up funds from the banking system has led to speculation that policy makers are more concerned about inflation than strength in the currency.

This week, RBI sold Rs6,000 crore of bonds to remove excess cash.
 
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Now, made in India electronic items to enter US, Europe
SUTANUKA GHOSAL & WRITANKAR MUKHERJEE
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ SATURDAY, MAY 19, 2007 01:24:03 AM]

KOLKATA: India’s manufacturing saga is donning new shades in the consumer electronics space. Global biggies like LG, Haier, Electrolux and Whirlpool are finalising plans to sell Made in India labels in mature markets like Europe and US. At present, sourcing from India is largely limited to Saarc, Middle East and African nations.

The MNCs have already done their groundwork to develop India as one their prime global production hub, either by expanding capacity or through third-party arrangements. The export product basket from India is also being expanded in segments which have a developed domestic vendor base.

Global firms doubtless wish take advantage of India’s low-cost production capabilities. “The firms are looking at India as an alternative global production hub to China due to similar economies of scale. Several mid-sized firms are exploring similar option. This will ultimately pay off for India’s economy,” felt Suresh Khanna, secretary of CETMA, the apex industry body.

LG already sources optical disc drives and refrigerators from India for Europe. The company intends to invest additional Rs 33 crore this year to develop its Pune facility as an export hub. LG India is eyeing an export growth of 19% in 2007, which will contribute some Rs 950 crore to its turnover.

LG Electronics India managing director Moon B Shin told ET that exports to Europe will be driven through high-end home appliances. “We want to make India a leading export centre and hence will look at regular investment in R&D, quality and manufacturing to ensure that we make truly world class products,” he said.

Korean major LG’s global rival, Samsung too is developing a new unit in Chennai which will export all categories of home appliances by 2009. “Samsung will invest $100-million in the Chennai facility between 2007-11 to develop it as an export hub. We are pushing up exports to Eastern Europe, Russia and SAARC,” said Ravinder Zutshi, deputy managing director, Samsung India.

On the other hand, Chinese major Haier wants to kick-off its India sourcing by December. While the company will initially source from a third-party production arrangement, it has plans to build a greenfield “export-oriented” facility in India. It is currently identifying the location for this unit.
 
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Barclays to double India workforce to meet demand for loans

With plans to offer personal and small business loans and credit cards and with the demand for loans going up Barclays needs to more than double its employees in India

By Sumit Sharma/Bloomberg

Barclays Plc., the British bank that agreed to buy ABN Amro Holding NV., plans to more than double its employees in India to 700 by the end of this year as a record economic expansion spurs demand for loans.

Britain’s third-biggest bank, with 276 staff in India, plans to offer personal and small business loans and credit cards, Samir Bhatia, managing director for India, said in Mumbai.

“India has a high-potential and fast-growing retail financial services sector with retail banking set to grow at a compound rate of at least 30% a year,” said Bhatia.

Global and domestic banks are seeking a share of India’s expanding retail market in an economy that’s grown an average 8.6% in the past four years, helping boost salaries in the world’s fastest growing major economy after China.

Average salaries in India are projected to rise 15% in 2007, according to human resource firm Hewitt Associates Inc. India had the highest average salary increase in the Asia- Pacific region in 2006, gaining 13.8% compared with 14.1% in 2005, Hewitt said.

“Consumer loans account for just about 5% of the GDP in India, compared to as high as 100% in some developed countries,” said Bhatia. “So, India still has a lot of potential.”
The London-based bank has three branches in India at Mumbai, Kanchipuram, near Chennai and Nelamangala, near Bangalore, and has applied for more, Bhatia said, declining to give details.

The bank, which in March said it was more than doubling investment in its Indian unit to $370 million from $150 million, also operates Barclays Capital, its investment banking unit in India.
 
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Two giants to enjoy double digits
Bangkok Post

China and India, the two emerging giants of Asia, are set to continue their robust growth with both countries likely to see double-digit expansion this year, economists say.

"We have raised our 2007 growth forecast from 9.8% to 10.2%, making 2007 the fifth straight year of double-digit growth," said Mingchun Sun, the China economist for Lehman Brothers.

He cautioned, however, that the country needed to gather pace with its policy of promoting consumption and not rely only on exports and investments.

"Unwelcome: the gigantic and rapidly increasing trade surplus is making growth even more dependent on exports," Mr Sun wrote in a report to clients.

China, which has at times been blamed for having an overheating economy, said that its GDP growth rebounded strongly to 11.1% year-on-year during the first quarter from 10.4% in the fourth quarter of 2006. The growth was mainly driven by a 101% increase in the trade surplus, a 23.7% gain in fixed-asset investment and 14.9% growth in retail sales.

Mr Sun said that although such growth would be the envy of most other countries, to him the data suggested that government policies to rebalance the economy have had mixed results at best. The Beijing government had promised a comprehensive set of policies and reforms to rebalance the economy, but has so far implemented only a few, with tweaks here and there.

"That these policies have failed to achieve their goals raises the risk that, if the government continues carrying out the promised reforms at its current slow pace, the unbalanced growth could be prolonged, making the longer-term outlook riskier," he says.

In regard to the Indian economy, Rob Subbaraman, chief economist for Asia for Lehman, said the country's fundamentals were strong enough to support 9-10% annual gross domestic product growth in the medium term.

He said India's growth was being spurred largely due to structural changes, but it was also posing new policy challenges as India has been undergoing a remarkable transition: average annual GDP growth has surged from 5.7% in the 1990s to 8.8% over the past four years.

"This does not look like a flash in the pan."

India's low-cost economy is reaping the rewards of market liberalisation; Indian companies - initially in services, but now also in manufacturing - are seizing the opportunities presented by new technologies and a more open economy. A middle class is fast emerging.

"We judge that this growth spurt has more to do with structural factors than cyclical ones," Mr Subbaraman said.

Gross domestic investment as a share of GDP jumped from 28.0% in 2003-04 to 33.8% in 2005-06 and looks set to climb further, he added.

Despite the recent decision by the Reserve Bank of India to raise its benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75% to curb inflationary pressure, hopes are that the authorities will take the middle path in managing the economy.

But Mr Subbaraman says overheating cannot be ruled out.

"But far more important, in our view, is the scope for India's economy to sustain 9-10% growth in the medium term," he wrote.

"Given that India's GDP per capita is just $700 [a year], nearly three-fifths of its workforce is still in the countryside and half its population is under 25 years old, there is still much growth potential to be unlocked. The key is more supply-side reforms without politics getting in the way."
 
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In the new India, the old problem with electricity
By Somini Sengupta Published: May 17, 2007

GURGAON, India: This suburb south of New Delhi is where the fruits of India's economic advance are on full display: sprawling malls, gleaming skyscrapers housing India's acclaimed software sector, condominiums with names as fanciful as Nirvana Country.

But this posh address of the new India is also a portrait of Indian ambitions bumping up against Indian realities.

Look up at the top of these towers and on any given day, you are likely to find three, four, six smokestacks poking out from each rooftop, blowing gray-black plumes into the clouds. If the smokestacks are on, it means the power is off and that the building - whether bright new mall, condominium or office - is probably being powered by diesel-fed generators.

This being India, a country of more than one billion people, the scale is staggering.

In just one case, Tata Consultancy Services, a technology company, maintains five giant generators, along with a nearly 20,000-liter, or 5,300-gallon, tank of diesel underground, as if it were a gasoline station.

The reserve fuel can power the lights, computers and air conditioners for up to 15 days to keep Tata's six-story building humming during the hot, dry summer months, when temperatures routinely soar above 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) and power cuts can average eight hours a day.

The Gurgaon skyline is studded with hundreds of buildings like this. In Gurgaon alone, the state power authority estimates that the gap between demand and supply hovers around 20 percent, and that is probably a conservative estimate.

For all those who suffer from crippling power cuts in cities like this, there are others who have no electricity connection at all. According to the Planning Commission of India, 600 million people - roughly half the population - are off the electricity grid. For this reason, it is impossible to estimate accurately the total national shortfall.

The electricity crisis has become all the more acute for the roaring pace of India's economic growth and the new material aspirations it has generated.

Rachna Tandon, a prosperous housewife, is a good example. She moved here to a quiet street of row houses 14 years ago, settling in what was one of the first residential sites built by DLF Universal, Gurgaon's and India's largest builder.

Back then, electricity was in short supply, but she was fully confident things would improve. The advertisements at the time described Gurgaon as the best address south of Delhi. It was pitched as a millennium city.

Today Tandon says she prefers to think of it as a medieval city. The day before, the power went out for roughly 11 hours. Her inverter, which is basically a series of rechargeable batteries - a household necessity here - collapsed after four hours.

For respite, some of her neighbors drove around in their air-conditioned cars. Her own children lingered outside and finally, when they nodded off to sleep, they lay on the living room floor, the coolest spot in the house.

Each appliance in her well-stocked home - an air conditioner in each room, a flat-screen television, a microwave and an electric stove - speaks to the gap between India's dreams and its realities.

The power cuts had thawed the chicken sausage in her freezer and she would have to throw it away in case it had spoiled. She did not dare use her electric oven, for fear that the power would go out in the middle of baking.

With no television, her 10-year-old son has been so bored that he took out his old cricket bat and ended up putting a ball through the kitchen window. Her daughter, 13, has had to study by flashlight. This summer, Tandon said, the family will have to choose between buying a generator and going on vacation. "We're living in the dark ages," she said.

For all her suffering, a reminder of the other India came earlier in the week, when her mother called from her hometown in rural north India and said she had had electricity for just one hour during the day.

In part because of these limitations, Indians are, for now, relatively conservative consumers of energy: about 600 units per capita per year, or one-fifth that of a typical American. But that will certainly increase as Indian desires reach those of the wealthy Western countries.

A recent report by McKinsey Global Institute frothily predicted a fourfold increase in consumer spending by 2025, vaulting India, as it said, "into the premier league among the world's consumer markets." McKinsey forecast that India would surpass Germany as the fifth-largest market in the world.

Driven by the needs of plenty, India has stepped up power generation in recent years at the pace of about 6 percent a year. It is a pittance compared to what neighboring China adds on each year and in any case insufficient to keep up with India's galloping demand.

The government has promised electricity connections for all - which means access to the grid, not round-the-clock power - by 2009. That is a target that does not seem plausible at current rates of power generation.

The development of power plants, meanwhile, is constrained by a lack of access to land, fuel and water, all of which a power plant needs in large quantities. The power grid remains weak.

In Gurgaon, for instance, transformers routinely blow out because of heavy loads. Voltage fluctuations damage electrical appliances of all sorts.

What the state cannot provide efficiently, many take for themselves. The World Bank estimates that at least $4 billion in electricity is unaccounted for each year - that is to say, stolen. Transparency International estimated in 2005 that Indians paid $480 million in bribes to put in new connections or correct bills.

The country's energy needs are one of the government's main arguments for a nuclear deal with the United States, which would allow India to buy reactors and fuel from the world market.

But even if the deal goes through, it would lift nuclear power, now at 3 percent, to no more than 9 percent of India's energy supply, said Leena Srivastava, executive director of the Energy and Resources Institute, a nongovernmental research group.

Similarly, in the coming years, alternative sources of energy, like wind, are expected to double, but to no more than about 8 percent of supply.

Coal will continue to dominate power generation and already more than a third of India's coal plants do not meet national emissions standards.

For Indian business, coping with chronic power shortages is a part of the cost of business.

At Tata, company managers took pains to say that power shortages do not hinder their ability to meet deadlines for their clients.

"The work as such does not suffer," said Gurinder Virk, assistant general manager. "We have sufficient stocks of diesel at all times." Behind the building, three generators purred as a sweltering evening descended. A 2004 World Bank survey found that 60 percent of companies in India have such facilities.

Still, construction here surges ahead. With few exceptions, there are little to no efforts to reduce power consumption, beyond the use of low-energy light bulbs. Gurgaon is dotted with buildings that are effectively curtains of glass, soaking up the searing summer heat.

"It's good for New York, not Gurgaon," was the verdict of Niranjan Khatri, a general manager with ITC, an Indian conglomerate whose office tower here is one of the few to comply with green building codes.

Across the highway, the nearly completed Ambi Mall promises one kilometer of shopping on each floor. Next to it, a billboard for the Mall of India promises an even bigger shopping center, one that will put India on the "global retail map."

Never mind that Gurgaon does not have a sewage treatment plant of its own or that the already existent Metropolitan Mall burns an average of 6,000 liters of diesel a day to run its generators during power cuts.

Farther south, in Nirvana Country, there are only generators. The 800-unit complex of row houses and apartment blocks, still under construction, is not even connected to the public electricity grid. It swallows 6,000 gallons of diesel each week to meet its needs - and that with only a fifth of its units occupied.

It was unclear how the power needs will be met once it reached full occupancy, said M.K. Pant, a retired army colonel who is now Nirvana's estate manager. "There's nothing in the files," he said. "There's nothing in the thinking also."

No matter. Newspaper advertisements for Nirvana Country promise "air conditioning in all rooms."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/17/news/india.php
 
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Now, made in India electronic items to enter US, Europe
SUTANUKA GHOSAL & WRITANKAR MUKHERJEE

SATURDAY, MAY 19, 2007

KOLKATA: India’s manufacturing saga is donning new shades in the consumer electronics space. Global biggies like LG, Haier, Electrolux and Whirlpool are finalising plans to sell Made in India labels in mature markets like Europe and US. At present, sourcing from India is largely limited to Saarc, Middle East and African nations.

The MNCs have already done their groundwork to develop India as one their prime global production hub, either by expanding capacity or through third-party arrangements. The export product basket from India is also being expanded in segments which have a developed domestic vendor base.

Global firms doubtless wish take advantage of India’s low-cost production capabilities. “The firms are looking at India as an alternative global production hub to China due to similar economies of scale. Several mid-sized firms are exploring similar option. This will ultimately pay off for India’s economy,” felt Suresh Khanna, secretary of CETMA, the apex industry body.

LG already sources optical disc drives and refrigerators from India for Europe. The company intends to invest additional Rs 33 crore this year to develop its Pune facility as an export hub. LG India is eyeing an export growth of 19% in 2007, which will contribute some Rs 950 crore to its turnover.

LG Electronics India managing director Moon B Shin told ET that exports to Europe will be driven through high-end home appliances. “We want to make India a leading export centre and hence will look at regular investment in R&D, quality and manufacturing to ensure that we make truly world class products,” he said.

Korean major LG’s global rival, Samsung too is developing a new unit in Chennai which will export all categories of home appliances by 2009. “Samsung will invest $100-million in the Chennai facility between 2007-11 to develop it as an export hub. We are pushing up exports to Eastern Europe, Russia and SAARC,” said Ravinder Zutshi, deputy managing director, Samsung India.

On the other hand, Chinese major Haier wants to kick-off its India sourcing by December. While the company will initially source from a third-party production arrangement, it has plans to build a greenfield “export-oriented” facility in India. It is currently identifying the location for this unit.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...Europe/RssArticleShow/articleshow/2060782.cms
 
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The World's Next Big Spenders
How India's rising and unique middle class will reshape global consumer markets.

By Diana Farrell and Eric Beinhocker
Newsweek International
Updated: 4:38 p.m. ET May 19, 2007

May 28, 2007 issue - Throughout India's history, the vast majority of its people have lived in desperate poverty. As recently as 1985, more than 90 percent of Indians lived on less than a dollar a day. Yet India is poised to undergo a remarkable transformation. New research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that within a generation, the country will become a nation of upwardly mobile middle-class households, consuming goods ranging from high-end cars to designer clothing. In two decades the country will surpass Germany as the world's fifth largest consumer market.

The headlines of India's growth story are well known —after the country began reforming in the early 1990s, economic growth jumped to about 7 percent. It slowed in the late '90s but since 2002 has proceeded at a blistering pace, surpassed only by China among the world's large economies. Less well known is how this growth is reshaping the lifestyle of Indian families. MGI's research portrays a dramatic transformation that will touch Indians up and down the income pyramid, from the poorest rural farmer to the wealthiest IT entrepreneur. Companies that fail to understand the unique desires and tastes of the new Indian consumer will miss out on a half-billion-strong market that along with China ranks as one of the most important growth opportunities of the next two decades.

One of our most striking findings is how dramatically recent growth has reduced the numbers of the poorest Indians, a group we call the deprived. They earn less than 90,000 Indian rupees a year ($1,969 per household, or about a dollar per person per day), and include subsistence farmers and unskilled laborers who often struggle to find work. They can be found across India, from its isolated villages to its sprawling urban slums. Many depend on government-subsidized food to get enough calories each day. Since 1985, the ranks of the deprived have fallen from 93 percent to 54 percent of the population, as 103 million people moved out of desperate poverty and many millions more were born into less grim circumstances. When we factor in population growth, there are 431 million fewer deprived Indians today than there would have been had the poverty rate remained stuck at its earlier level, making India's economic reforms the most effective antipoverty program in its history. If growth continues at its recent pace, we expect a further 291 million people to move out of poverty over the next two decades. Most of these former poor will move into the class we call the aspirers, households earning between 90,000 and 200,000 rupees ($1,969-$4,376) per year. Aspirers are typically small shopkeepers, farmers with their own modest landholdings or semiskilled industrial and service workers. Their lives are not easy, but aspirers generally have enough food and might own items such as a small television, a propane stove and an electric rod for heating water. They spend about half of their income on basic necessities, and many of their other purchases are bought secondhand or in what Indians call the "informal economy." Over the next 20 years this group will shrink from 41 percent of the population to 36 percent, as many of them move up into the middle class.

The next two groups—seekers, earning between 200,000 and 500,000 rupees ($4,376- $10,941), and strivers, with incomes of between 500,000 and 1 million rupees ($10,941-$21,882)—will become India's huge new middle class. While their incomes would place them below the poverty line in the United States, things are much cheaper in India. When the local cost of living is taken into account, the income of the seekers and strivers looks more like $23,000 to $118,000, which is middle class by most developed-country standards. Seekers range from young college graduates to mid-level government officials, traders and business people. They enjoy a lifestyle that most of the world would recognize as middle class and typically own a television, a refrigerator, a mobile phone and perhaps even a scooter or a car. Although their budgets are stretched, they scrimp and save for their children's education and their own retirement.

Strivers, the upper end of the middle class, tend to be senior government officials, managers of large businesses, professionals and rich farmers. Successful and upwardly mobile, they are highly brand-conscious, buying the latest foreign-made cars and electronic gadgets. They are likely to have air conditioning, and can indulge in an annual vacation, usually somewhere in India.

The middle class currently numbers some 50 million people, but by 2025 will have expanded dramatically to 583 million people—some 41 percent of the population. These households will see their incomes balloon to 51.5 trillion rupees ($1.1 billion)—11 times the level of today and 58 percent of total Indian income.

The other major spending force in India's new consumer market will be our last segment—the global Indians, earning more than 1 million rupees ($21,882, or $118,000, taking into account the cost of living). These are senior corporate executives, large business owners, high-end professionals, politicians and big agricultural-land owners. Today there are just 1.2 million global Indian households accounting for some 2 trillion rupees in spending power. But a new breed of ferociously upwardly mobile Indians is emerging—young graduates of India's top colleges who can command large salaries from Indian and foreign multinationals. Their tastes are indistinguishable from those of prosperous young Westerners—many own high-end luxury cars and wear designer clothes, employ maids and full-time cooks, and regularly vacation abroad. By 2025, there will be 9.5 million Indians in this class and their spending power will hit 14.1 trillion rupees—20 percent of total Indian consumption.

As the seismic wave of income growth rolls across Indian society, the character of consumption will change dramatically over the next 20 years. A huge shift is underway from spending on necessities such as food and clothing to choice-based spending on categories such as household appliances and restaurants. Households that can afford discretionary consumption will grow from 8 million today to 94 million by 2025.

Long-established spending attitudes are already changing rapidly. Branded clothes are becoming de rigueur for the wealthiest Indians—Christian Dior, Louis Vuitton and Tommy Hilfiger already have a presence in the country. Gucci, Armani and Versace are on their way. For generations, Indians did their daily shopping at fresh-food markets and regarded packaged foods as "stale." However, just like their Western counterparts, a new generation of busy urban Indians is starting to appreciate the convenience and choice offered by packaged foods. Likewise, many Indians have traditionally viewed gold jewelry as a safer way to save than banks, but young Indians today are likely to see jewelry as a fashion statement, not a savings plan. They are also increasingly comfortable using credit cards —the share of Indians who carry plastic has quadrupled since 2001.

Of course, many of India's new consumers still have relatively modest means. Despite rapidly rising incomes, average spending will still lag behind countries such as Indonesia. Like China's, India's market will be based more on volume than on per capita spending. While luxury-goods makers may be able to sell to India's global consumers with little modification to their products, those selling to India's new middle class will need to be innovative to square the difference between the rising aspirations of consumers and their still-modest pocketbooks.

One such company is Tata Motors, India's leading auto manufacturer, which has announced its intention to introduce the world's first "one lakh" car. One lakh refers to the price, 100,000 rupees, or just $2,100. This will probably be the cheapest car in the world. Historically, a new car was out of reach of the vast majority of Indian households. But as incomes rise, car prices fall and financing becomes available to more people, a huge pool of pent-up demand will be released. In a tie-up with the State Bank of India, car manufacturer Maruti (majority-owned by Suzuki) is now offering customers the chance to buy one of its cars with lower monthly payments than if they were buying a motorbike. Over the next 20 years, we expect to see spending on cars growing by 12 percent per year. While more Indians will enjoy the freedom of their own transport, it's not hard to imagine the impact on the nation's environment and increasingly clogged roads. Affordability continues to be the hallmark of successful new consumer-product launches. In the household-products sector, an example of keen pricing is the $66 washing machine built by Videocon, the Indian consumer-electronics company. The Videocon washer was successful not just because it was cheap, but because its design was attuned to the needs of Indian families—for example, it will automatically finish a wash after one of India's frequent power outages—and it dropped costly standard features such as a drying cycle, which is unnecessary in India's hot climate.

Smart companies recognize that old consumer habits die hard. For generations, rural Indian families have either made their own clothes from bolts of cloth or had the local tailor make their garments relatively cheaply. Many remain suspicious of ready-to-wear clothes. Arvind Mills, India's leading denim manufacturer, overcame these misgivings by offering a "ready to stitch" jeans kit to local village tailors. It also distributed sewing-machine attachments for stitching the heavy denim and trained the tailors to use the kits. Within two months, more than a million of these Ruf 'n Tuf kits were sold.

India's shift to a consumer society will only accelerate as more people become "connected" via mobile phones, the Internet and TVs, and as advertising becomes a more prominent part of people's lives. Before India embarked on its program of economic reforms, the country had only 0.8 fixed telephones per 100 people, and virtually no mobile phones. While fixed-line penetration has almost tripled to 2.2 per 100 people, the real growth story has been in mobile, which has exploded and is expected to reach 211 million subscribers by the year-end. India's mobile market is currently growing even faster than China's, and we expect overall communications spending to continue to grow at a very rapid 13.4 percent per year over the next two decades. Other fast-growing categories will include transport, education and health care. It is testament to the determination of Indians to work for a more prosperous future that the highest priorities will be these "economically enabling" areas of spending that boost productivity and economic growth. Indeed, Indians will spend more of their disposable income on these categories than consumers in just about any other country. But the boost in private health-care spending, which we expect to double from 7 percent of all consumer spending today to 13 percent in 2025 (second only to the United States in percentage terms), also shows the weak underbelly of the nation's growth story. Despite the immense progress that India has made, the public sector—in particular, health, education and infrastructure such as roads and power—is in a desperate condition. Thus many Indians will spend their rising incomes to opt out of public services and go private unless those services improve.

While India's rising wealth will provide more resources to tackle these issues, its fast-growing population will stress its public services even further. India's success to date has been built on its human capital—a hardworking and increasingly educated population. If the country's growth is to continue, the reforms that have revolutionized its private sector will need to reach its notorious government bureaucracy as well. If this does occur, the dynamism of India's people will do the rest.

Farrell is director of the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey & Co.'s economic research arm, where Beinhocker is a senior fellow.

Categories​
Compound Annual Growth Rate​

Food, beverages, and tobacco​
4.5%​
Transportation​
8.3%​
Housing and utilities​
6.1%​
Personal products and services​
9.2%​
Health care​
10.8%​
Apparel​
6.5%​
Education and recreation​
11%​
Household products​
6.9%​
Communication​
13.4%​



© 2007 Newsweek, Inc.
 
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Gujarat gets an A for economy
ABHISHEK KAPOOR
Posted online: Saturday, May 19, 2007 at 1251 hours IST
Updated: Saturday, May 19, 2007 at 1359 hours IST

GANDHINAGAR, MAY 19: Gujarat’s economic growth post-liberalisation, and specifically in the last five years, has come in for handsome praise in the draft Gujarat Development Report, prepared by the Gujarat Institute of Development Research (GIDR) at the behest of the Planning Commission of India.

For a change, and much to the amusement of bureaucrats here, it is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and some Union policies that get brickbats for stalling Gujarat’s spectacular growth.

Though the praise is more for Gujarat’s historical lead and not essentially for the incumbent dispensation, officials are happy that the State’s strengths are taken note of.

As such, the result is a long drawn critique of the State government and its performance, bureaucrats are happy that they are getting bouquets, for a change.

The report calls the State a “star performer” and a “manufacturing specialist” with investments in ports, roads, telecom and other infrastructure attracting unequivocal praise. Export-led growth of the country in the last five years allowed labour intensive Gujarat manufacturing clusters (diamonds, textiles, garments, cement, ceramics, tiles, plastics, auto ancillaries, drugs and pharmaceuticals) to ride the wave.

The report complains that Gujarat has realised average growth rates of only 14 per cent in manufacturing despite a potential for crossing the 20 per cent mark, this, because of conservative monetary and exchange rate policies of the Central government and the RBI. Calling it policy-induced underperformance, the report says that even tradable policies may have discriminated against manufacturing, Gujarat’s intrinsic strength.

Comparing the State with other states, the report finds Gujarat doing exceedingly well on most economic measures. The comparisons are made against Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. It gives an example of how growing from a much lower level of Rs 11,500 against Rs 13,500 of Maharashtra in 1993, the per capita income of Gujarat crossed that of its neighbour in 2003 and stood at Rs 19,500, a jump of over 70 per cent in a decade growing fastest among its peers.

“Gujarat is in a class by itself. Among its peer states, Gujarat has the highest rate of growth of GDP, manufacturing, and per capita SDP. The openness to immigration of labour, and the natural advantage of much land with little alternative use, local entrepreneurship, state support, and local politics that is not against capital are significant factors,” says the chapter on Economic performance of Gujarat in recent times.

In the making for the last two years, the draft report is now with the bureaucrats for a final perusal and comments before finalisation. The work was carried out under the overall guidance of Planning Commission Member (west) B N Yugandhar, who was recently in news for quitting the body.
 
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India puts forward concept of 'merchant airports' in private hands

Posted May 18th, 2007 by Indian-MuslimEconomy New Delhi, May 18 (IANS) The civil aviation ministry Friday put forward a new concept of "merchant airports" in the country with the infrastructure managed by private enterprises and government agencies handling safety and security issues.

"The entrepreneur is expected to set up and operate an airport on the basis of its commercial viability, subject to the safety and security oversight of the government," an official note said, after an official meeting in this regard.

"Such a proposal will dispense with the requirement for investment of government resources and therefore a more liberal, license-based approval procedure can be considered," the note added.

The government wants to unveil a new policy on airport infrastructure.

Civil Aviation Secretary Ashok Chawla chaired Friday's meeting that was attended by representatives of leading chambers, infrastructure funding agencies, banks, airport operators and state-run aviation companies.

Experts noted at the meeting that there are no international practices in this regard for benchmarks, but given the rapid growth of civil aviation in India and the need for infrastructure, airports needed to work on commercial lines.

International air traffic has been growing at around 15 percent per annum, while the domestic passenger traffic has sometimes surpassed even 40 percent. "This growth has placed tremendous burden on the existing airport infrastructure."

India is also expected to add some 400 new aircraft over the next seven-eight years worth some $80 billion, which would necessitate an investment of about $30 billion in airport infrastructure, the note said.

"Since it would be very difficult to generate such resources in public sector or even under public-private-partnership, the government felt the need to explore the option of merchant airports."

In recent months, the airports in Delhi and Mumbai are being restructured in the joint venture route and two new airports are being constructed in Bangalore and Hyderabad, which are likely to become operational within one year.
 
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Newspapers Do Booming Business In India
By HENRY CHU Los Angeles Times
Published: May 20, 2007

NEW DELHI - Extra! Extra! Researchers have discovered a place where the newspaper, a threatened species in parts of the world, is thriving.

It's India, home to 1.1 billion people. Not only is the press in robust health, but it's growing at an astonishing rate.

From 2005 to 2006, nearly 2,100 newspapers debuted in India, joining 60,000 circulating. Here in the capital, a megalopolis with 15 million residents, two new dailies have hit the streets in the past four months, angling for their share of a market divided among more than a dozen competitors.

Why the rush to join an industry that seems headed for extinction in the United States and other developed nations?

India is a country with an expanding middle class and a booming economy, which have fueled an explosion in consumer spending and advertising.

The illiteracy rate - though stubbornly high at an estimated 35 percent - gradually is coming down. In New Delhi and Mumbai, about 80 percent of residents age 7 and older can read and write.

Meanwhile, Internet penetration remains marginal, despite India's reputation as an information-technology powerhouse. Only a sliver of the population, mostly well-heeled urbanites, can afford home computers and high-speed Internet access.

"You cannot really compare the Indian market with the market in the West," said Subir Ghosh, editor of Newswatch India, a Web site that tracks the media. "The bulk of the market is actually virgin territory, even now."

Helping newspaper circulation are newsstand prices that rarely exceed 3 rupees a copy, the equivalent of about 7 cents. A vicious price war several years ago suppressed prices. But thanks in part to the surge in advertising, only four newspapers out of more than 60,000 ceased publication between 2005 and 2006, according to the official Registrar for Newspapers in India.

Whether the Indian newspaper industry will reach a saturation point remains to be seen.

With widespread Internet access not expected here for a decade, the traditional media are likely to continue ruling the roost.
 
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Raising a glass to India
WILLIAM LYONS

VIJAY Mallya looked pensive as he took a drag on his cheroot and peered through the rain at the Whyte & Mackay building towering above central Glasgow. "I guess it is mine now," he said with just the trace of a smile.

Minutes earlier, the man dubbed India's Richard Branson had given the western media the lowdown on his long-awaited £595m acquisition of Whyte & Mackay from the South African entrepreneur Vivian Imerman.

Now, standing at the entrance to Glasgow's Hilton hotel, he faced the tougher task of selling the deal to the public back home in India, where he hopes his freshly acquired brands will become trailblazers in what is potentially the biggest whisky market in the world.

"India is potentially a very large consumer of Scotch. I don't believe the Chinese market offers the same balance as India, where you can sell whisky at all levels."

If India, with 200 million regular consumers of locally produced whisky, is the future for Scotch whisky, Mallya looks like the man to get it there. He owns the country's biggest drinks group, United Spirits, and is an influential member of the country's federal parliament.

Until now, the biggest obstacle to the Indian market for Scotch has been the prohibitively high tariffs, up to 550%, imposed by states to protect farmers who supply molasses for local whisky, much of which is made by Mallya's company.

The World Trade Organisation is expected to rule these taxes out of order by April next year, a move which would put whisky within reach of the Indian middle classes for the first time.

Now that Mallya owns a Scotch producer, it is in his interests to hasten that process, according to John Wakely, an independent drinks analyst: "Most industry players believe that if Mallya is going to make this work he has to put his weight behind getting the Indian Scotch market to open up.

"To be blunt, there needs to be quite a hurry on this, because unfortunately the flip side of the Scotch whisky industry is that if there is a sustained boom over a number of years in prices and volume they start cranking up production."

One senior figure in the Scotch whisky industry said: "I suspect Mallya knows that the WTO will be successful and he is doing this to get a foothold in the market. Diageo and Pernod Ricard have been building up their own distribution networks in India for years. If the tariffs were lifted tomorrow their brands would be in a very strong position to dominate the market."

Whisky will still be more expensive than local spirits because of its production and transport costs. But Mallya last week raised the possibility that he could save some money by exporting bulk Scotch to India and bottling it locally.

What seems certain is that when Mallya acts, he will do so on a grand scale. Last week's takeover was announced in a typically flamboyant style for 51-year-old Mallya, who owns Kingfisher beer, the airline of the same name and a spirits business which is ranked the third biggest in the world by volume.

Dressed in black suit and black shirt, set off with a large diamond stud at his collar and a mane of greying hair, he looked more like a film producer or impresario.

Mallya's officials and Imerman's team mingled while smartly dressed public relations girls milled about with clipboards. At the back of the room sat Scottish & Newcastle chairman Sir Brian Stewart, whose company has a stake in Mallya's United Breweries.

But there was no flashiness or theatre as Mallya took his seat next to Imerman and set out the case for the deal. Due diligence, he said, showed the Whyte & Mackay brands and whisky stocks together were worth between £520m and £590m, giving him the Invergordon grain plant, four malt whisky distilleries and a virtually new bottling plant at Grangemouth for very little.

That suggests Imerman, the arch wheeler-dealer, did not get the best price for the business. But speaking on the sidelines at last week's press conference, the South African pointed out that he had done pretty well out of it. The former Del Monte boss first got involved as an investor through a management buyout of the former Jim Beam Scotch whisky business in 2001. He took control of that company in a £175m deal when lead investor WestLB bailed out, changed its name from the meaningless Kyndal to Whyte & Mackay and set about cutting costs and sharpening brands.

His two-thirds stake in the business gave him a personal profit of £250m. The price was boosted by the fact that Scotch whisky stocks have fallen and prices have risen in recent years - but Imerman claims luck had nothing to do with it.

"I bought all the excess stock in the market for £40m and everybody told me I was mad. But I saw a mismatch between the price of a case of Scotch and the price of stock," he says.

"I was the first to realise this. We raised our prices and we took the pain, and now prices are twice as high as they were. I think the industry is in a very healthy state now that commoditisation has ended and people realise the authenticity and value of the Scotch brand."

But as the company recovered, it became clear that it would be difficult to take it to the next level: "The Vivian factor in terms of what I could do with the business had all but been exhausted. The company needed an acquisition or an owner that was able to bring distribution capacity."

Just as Imerman was coming to that conclusion, he received a call from Mallya, who was looking to plug a gap in the growing international drinks portfolio held by United Spirits.

When rumours of a deal surfaced last summer, the price was expected to be around £460m. But Mallya says: "It became difficult. We were making progress, but we were not making progress. It took so long because the Scotch whisky industry was changing significantly. Now it has returned to sensible levels of viability and prosperity."

Having paid what would have been considered an excessive price until this year, Mallya is unlikely to start discounting. "The stock is very valuable and it has to be judiciously used," he says. "We will use it to maximise its value, and the best way to do that is to put it into luxury brands."

But some in the industry ask whether Mallya has bought true luxury brands. He has high hopes for a Whyte & Mackay 13-year-old blended whisky, and the Dalmore and Isle of Jura malts.

Mallya describes Dalmore as "the flagship", while Imerman last week talked up Whyte & Mackay as "the most-loved whisky in the country". However authentic these brands might be, they lack the international kudos of Pernod Ricard's Chivas or Diageo's Johnnie Walker, while W&M's eponymous blend typically sells for less than the market leaders Bell's, owned by Diageo, and Edrington's Famous Grouse.

Aside from the whiskies, Mallya has acquired Vladivar vodka, a mid-priced product with a low global profile. Mallya says he will look at ways to "rejuvenate" the Vladivar brand, although it might be easier to invent a new premium spirit without the "Vodka from Varrington" slogan which dates from the 1980s and seems to have stuck with many consumers.

But not everyone is sceptical. Whisky analyst Alan Gray, of Sutherlands, who publishes the annual Scotch Whisky Review, said the flagship W&M was good enough to justify the deal: "Mallya has the opportunity to really grow Whyte & Mackay in India. It's an absolutely wonderful brand for India, it is not wildly expensive, it's a wonderful product, and through his distribution channels he can do a very good job. In India the market is still in its early stages, so the main thrust will be on blends."

Life and times of a tycoon

Born: 1955; son of Vittal Mallya, part of the first generation of successful businessmen after India's independence

Business interests: Chairman of United Breweries; Kingfisher Airlines, Aventis Pharma and Bayer CropScience India.

Owns: South African game lodges, tropical islands, a Boeing 727 and a Gulfstream jet which he pilots, 260 classic cars and a yacht.

Politics: Member of the Indian Parliament and leader of a political party

Hobbies: Horseracing, motorsport.

Lives: 26 homes including Keillour Castle in Perthshire, an apartment in Trump Plaza, New York, Monte Carlo and in every major city in India.

Aims: To bring Formula 1 to New Delhi in 2009

He says: "I wanted to be a doctor like my grandfather. My father put his foot down and said 'No, he's going into business.' Did I choose? No, but I came to enjoy it."

This article: http://business.scotsman.com/agriculture.cfm?id=781392007
 
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