Mangus Ortus Novem
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India: The Rise of a Great Power/Scenario#1
By Mangus Ortus Novem
The Timeframe
Any analyst worth his salt regarding India needs to take India seriously. The potential of this country to upset global power balance cannot be ignored. This potential requires a detached view of things. The scenario 1 takes a future state view of India around 2030.
The scenario assumes a double digit economic growth for at least a decade up until 2030, continuing well into 2040s, combined with good governance, solid social uplift and educational investments. On top of this massive upgrade in infrastructure in all fields by 2030.
Furthermore, the scenario envisions India to have a world’s second largest armed forces equipped with state-of-the-art equipment and world class training enabled by space based assets.
By this time India would be almost a middle income country. That for a population of over 1.4 Bln people would be a historic achievement!
The Strategic Political and Economic Weight of India
As world’s third largest and massively growing economy India of 2030 would have Comprehensive National Power far greater than EU. With this CNP India would have enormous political and economic capital at its disposal.
With this Strategic Power Capital India would be in a position to shape the environment in ME and South Asia to its liking. Furthermore, as FTA partner of ASEAN India would be a key player in the affairs of South East Asia…all the way to Australia and New Zealand.
The India diaspora in ME and Asia Pacific Region will form a solid India base of cultural, economic and political influence. The signs of it are already present even today.
With India becoming Blockchain Technology innovator would only help accelerate and consolidate her CNP.
The Shaper of Global Affairs
By 2030 India would be a Veto holding UNSC member working towards creating an equitable world for the developing world. As the West declines and by 2030 this decline would be more acute…India would fill the gap left behind the West and carve a niche for herself to become a giant of the East along with China.
Backed by its technological advances and economic wealth India would surpass EU and Russia in both military technology and economic heft. Both of these zones i.e. Russo-European spheres would become secondary players on global scale. For India of 2030 would be globally recognized Nuclear/Economic power.
With such strength India would be able to shape the global agenda which best benefits its citizens. At this stage WTO and UN would very carefully listen to the Indian voice as India would be an active shaper of such policies from within.
The World Bank, IMF and BIS would all have healthy Indian representations as well…where Indian currency would be also a part of SDR basket. This will enable India of 2030 to shape the global financial architecture to be more equitable and in India’s best interests.
The Leader of Afro-Asian Voice
With Comprehensive National Power comes National and Global Prestige. India of 2030 would have created a massive trading and economic block with Africa. Utilizing India-Africa Dialogue Framework and India Veto power at UNSC India would become leader of Afro-Asian Voice, helping the African countries achieving favourable terms from the developed world.
Combined with Indian soft power of Bollywood and rising Indian Global Prestige the global South would naturally gravitate towards India and Hindu Civilisation for both inspiration and support.
At this stage of development the educational institutes of India would be of global ranking, making them objects of desire for R&D partnerships of MNCs. Along with students from around the world flocking to India…education and R&D will be one of the exports of rapidly industralised India.
Enabling Conditions
What are or will be the enabling conditions for present day India to morph seamlessly into the Great Power status?
1. Socially?
What does India of today have to do in social sphere to achieve the Scenario 1?
2. Economically?
What economic policies and sectors India needs to boost today to be a global power of 2030?
3. Politically?
What political direction and actions India needs to take today to be a true giant in 2030?
4. Geopolitically?
Which international power equations/alliances India needs to join to become Geopolitical Giant of 2030?
5. Technologically?
Which technological sectors India needs to focus today to become a Technological Powerhouse of 2030?
6. Militarily?
What kind of investments, trainings, equipment and assets India needs to have in house today and what kind of localized production setup it needs to furnish a global Indian military power of 2030?
By Mangus Ortus Novem
The Timeframe
Any analyst worth his salt regarding India needs to take India seriously. The potential of this country to upset global power balance cannot be ignored. This potential requires a detached view of things. The scenario 1 takes a future state view of India around 2030.
The scenario assumes a double digit economic growth for at least a decade up until 2030, continuing well into 2040s, combined with good governance, solid social uplift and educational investments. On top of this massive upgrade in infrastructure in all fields by 2030.
Furthermore, the scenario envisions India to have a world’s second largest armed forces equipped with state-of-the-art equipment and world class training enabled by space based assets.
By this time India would be almost a middle income country. That for a population of over 1.4 Bln people would be a historic achievement!
The Strategic Political and Economic Weight of India
As world’s third largest and massively growing economy India of 2030 would have Comprehensive National Power far greater than EU. With this CNP India would have enormous political and economic capital at its disposal.
With this Strategic Power Capital India would be in a position to shape the environment in ME and South Asia to its liking. Furthermore, as FTA partner of ASEAN India would be a key player in the affairs of South East Asia…all the way to Australia and New Zealand.
The India diaspora in ME and Asia Pacific Region will form a solid India base of cultural, economic and political influence. The signs of it are already present even today.
With India becoming Blockchain Technology innovator would only help accelerate and consolidate her CNP.
The Shaper of Global Affairs
By 2030 India would be a Veto holding UNSC member working towards creating an equitable world for the developing world. As the West declines and by 2030 this decline would be more acute…India would fill the gap left behind the West and carve a niche for herself to become a giant of the East along with China.
Backed by its technological advances and economic wealth India would surpass EU and Russia in both military technology and economic heft. Both of these zones i.e. Russo-European spheres would become secondary players on global scale. For India of 2030 would be globally recognized Nuclear/Economic power.
With such strength India would be able to shape the global agenda which best benefits its citizens. At this stage WTO and UN would very carefully listen to the Indian voice as India would be an active shaper of such policies from within.
The World Bank, IMF and BIS would all have healthy Indian representations as well…where Indian currency would be also a part of SDR basket. This will enable India of 2030 to shape the global financial architecture to be more equitable and in India’s best interests.
The Leader of Afro-Asian Voice
With Comprehensive National Power comes National and Global Prestige. India of 2030 would have created a massive trading and economic block with Africa. Utilizing India-Africa Dialogue Framework and India Veto power at UNSC India would become leader of Afro-Asian Voice, helping the African countries achieving favourable terms from the developed world.
Combined with Indian soft power of Bollywood and rising Indian Global Prestige the global South would naturally gravitate towards India and Hindu Civilisation for both inspiration and support.
At this stage of development the educational institutes of India would be of global ranking, making them objects of desire for R&D partnerships of MNCs. Along with students from around the world flocking to India…education and R&D will be one of the exports of rapidly industralised India.
Enabling Conditions
What are or will be the enabling conditions for present day India to morph seamlessly into the Great Power status?
1. Socially?
What does India of today have to do in social sphere to achieve the Scenario 1?
2. Economically?
What economic policies and sectors India needs to boost today to be a global power of 2030?
3. Politically?
What political direction and actions India needs to take today to be a true giant in 2030?
4. Geopolitically?
Which international power equations/alliances India needs to join to become Geopolitical Giant of 2030?
5. Technologically?
Which technological sectors India needs to focus today to become a Technological Powerhouse of 2030?
6. Militarily?
What kind of investments, trainings, equipment and assets India needs to have in house today and what kind of localized production setup it needs to furnish a global Indian military power of 2030?
