India’s Navy Maritime Patrol Aircraft Competition

[ejaz007]

India’s Navy Holding Maritime Patrol Aircraft Competition (updated)
12-Aug-2008 15:44 EDT

TU-142: headed out?
In November 2005 article, DID covered India’s $133 million deal for two P-3C Orion maritime-optimized patrol and surveillance planes. As it happens, that deal fell through on grounds of expense, support costs, and timing. Apparently, it would have taken 18-24 months for the US Navy to retrofit the two aircraft to the Indian Navy specifications once the lease had been finalized.

In December 2005, India’s navy floated an RFP for 8 new maritime aircraft. Subsequent statements by India’s Admiral Prakash indicate that they could be looking for as many as 30 aircraft by 2020. Lockheed was invited to bid again, and so were several other firms. The bids were submitted in April 2007. The plan was for price negotiations to be completed by 2007, with first deliveries to commence within 48 months.

India’s Ministry of Defence has extreme problems with announced schedules, but their existing fleet is wearing out, international requests for India’s maritime patrol help are rising, and some action is necessary. DID discusses the geopolitical drivers, the current fleet, and the known competitors.

Now that the bids have been submitted, technical evaluations have taken place, and price negotiations have reportedly wrapped up, we seem to be inching toward a winner…

With Growing Naval Power Comes Growing Naval Responsibility
The Competitors
Listed, But Not Submitted
UPDATES
With Growing Naval Power Comes Growing Naval Responsibility


The competition and refurbishment efforts are being given greater impetus by international developments. IPT reports that warning bells have been sounded at an international summit over the mounting terrorist threats to sea lanes around Indonesia and the Straits of Malacca, which serves as a choke-point for a significant percentage of global shipping. At a recent high-level meeting in the United States that included Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and others, a request was made for India to play a major policing role against sea-piracy in the region.

Successful procurement of these aircraft would certainly contribute to India’s capabilities, as its naval responsibilities undergo rapid growth. To the west, India is also undertaking anti-piracy efforts on the East African coast, with a base in Madagascar and a recent military co-operation agreement with Mozambique that includes coastal patrol responsibilities.

Heron UAV, India
The Indian Navy currently relies on its fleet of around 15 Dornier 228-101 aircraft and 12 Israeli Searcher Mark II and Heron unmanned aerial vehicles to monitor India’s 7,516 km long coastline, 1,197 islands and a 2.01 square km exclusive economic zone.

Additional patrols and interdiction within and beyond that area are undertaken by its 8-10 ultra-long-range TU-142 Bear aircraft and its 2 remaining IL-38 May Maritime Surveillance Aircraft upgrades to IL-38SD status. Another 3 upgraded IL-38SDs are expected to enter service by end-2008, but the upgrades have been a flashpoint for controversy due to a May 14/07 report from India’s Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) which said that the first 2 upgraded IL-38SDs are missing essential avionics and weapon systems that are “seriously limiting their operational capabilities.”

In February 2006, Flight International reported that India’s navy had also set a March 2007 deadline to receive bids for 16-24 more anti-submarine warfare helicopters; but the manufacturers that were handed the tender (AgustaWestland, Eurocopter, Kamov and Sikorsky) asked for an extension. That request has factored into at least one bid proposal for India’s next generation long-range maritime patrol aircraft.

Program Timeline

Do-228 MPA
Bids were received from various candidates in April 2006. A July 2007 Defense News report says that a procurement team will be sending preliminary evaluations to the Defence Ministry by September 2007, which will lead to a short list. This has happened, but the military’s wishes and development timelines for their target platforms may force a split into short-term and long-term buys. A preliminary decision and price negotiations are scheduled to begin “within two years,” i.e. by mid-2009.

Past experience has demonstrated that price negotiations with India’s MoD can take years themselves – or even sink deals entirely, vid. the various collapsed deals for second-hand Mirage 2000 fighter jets.

The Competitors

The Times of India reports that India’s 8-10 TU-142 Bear aircraft are being retired, after negotiations with Russia and Israel to retrofit them were called off. Invited bidders (and their relevant offerings) reportedly include:

BAE (Nimrod)
Boeing (P-8A MMA)
IAI/Elta (Dassault Falcon 900 MPA)
Lockheed Martin (P-3C Orion)
Northrop-Grumman (Global Hawk, presumably)
EADS (CN-235MP, AT3 Atlantique, ATR-72MP, modified A319)
Rosoboronexport (IL-38 “May” and TU-142 “Bear”, both currently in service)

TU-142M “Bear”The TU-142 Bear is the current incumbent. It was originally built as the TU-95 heavy bomber in the pre-jet era, before going on to a very long and successful career as the Eastern Bloc’s most important and longest ranging maritime surveillance and attack aircraft. A TU-142 can fly from Mumbai (Bombay) to Johannesburg, South Africa and back – without refueling. Bharat-Rakshak reports that 8-10 Bears remain in service with the Indian Naval Air Arm. Supplied to India in 1987-1988, all of them have been refurbished at least once. As noted above, these aircraft are being retired, after negotiations with Russia and Israel to retrofit them were called off.

Interest in the proposed upgrades may pick up again, however, given the likely timeline for long-range replacement aircraft from Boeing or Airbus. Bharat-Rakshak notes that proposals had been floated to Russian and Israeli firms to significantly upgrade the TU-142 with the Leninets Sea Dragon common patrol suite, as well as other electronic enhancements useful for surveillance and even electronic warfare. Proposed Sea Dragon upgrades were rejected on cost and performance grounds, which led to discussions around an Israeli IAI Elta surveillance and communications package based around the AN/M-2202A radar used in Spain’s P-3C upgrades. These upgrades may even have been installed on at least one aircraft.

P-8A MMA
DID has covered the Boeing 737-derived P-8A MMA program in-depth, including India’s interest in the P-3 Orion’s successor. The P-8A is not expected to be available before 2013-2014. Nevertheless, The Times of India’s sources in the Indian Navy believe that the P-8A would match the combined operational profile presently being executed by its existing fleet of Ilyushin Il-38 Mays and TU-142 Bears. Given the limited remaining lifetime of even the refurbished IL-38SDs, a long-term solution is understandably attractive.

As DID has noted before, India also considers its involvement in the Boeing MMA program a test of Washington’s long-term military and strategic commitment to India. Significant distrust remains in the wake of the USA’s 1988 embargo of military exports to India and Pakistan following underground nuclear tests – an embargo that was only lifted fully in September of 2004. While its timeline may pose problems, just having the P-8A offered and cleared for export has been the one of the biggest benefits India received from this RFP; the Pentagon has also pledged to make additional technical military capabilities available to New Delhi as they enter US service.

In the end, Team Boeing submitted its proposal to develop and deliver 8 P-8I Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft variants, touting its commonality and supportability benefits (q.v. April 13/07 update). The proposal includes the development of a unique Indian navy P-8 configuration, significant participation for Indian industry, test and certification activities, and 8 aircraft delivered over a 4-year period.

Australian AP-3C
Don’t count out the old standby P-3C Orion just yet. Lockheed’s bid reportedly included a combination offer: 8 upgraded US Navy P-3C aircraft for $550-700 million; and 16 multi-mission MH-60R helicopters from Sikorsky costing $350-400 million.

This platform is in service with 15 nations, and Lockheed-Martin still hopes to reach 16 by adding India. Press Trust of India reports Lockheed VP Richard Kirkland as saying their bid will offer “P-3C Orions which have completely been refurbished with new wing-spans and tails to serve almost a life time of 20 years… We are offering the Navy the choice of sensors and equipment to be placed onboard and the configuration it wants either for long-range maritime reconnaissance or anti-submarine mode.” Lockheed recently opened a plant to manufacture wings for old P-3C aircraft, as a way of keeping P-3C fleets flying in the 15 countries that use the aircraft. The refurbished aircraft with new hydraulic jigs, composite-wing spans and tails are already being delivered to the US Navy and some other international customers, and Kirkland contends that shorter delivery time will be an advantage for Lockheed this time around.

September 2007 reports add that the lead time for a long-range P-8A or Airbus 319 solution have led to a second look at the P-3C option.


Atlantique MPA
EADS’ maritime patrol offerings include EADS-CASA’s CN-235MP Persuader in service with a number of countries, and the twin-turboprop AT3 Atlantique offered as part of the SECBAT consortium (EADS, Dassault Aviation of France, Alenia of Italy, and SABCA-SONACA of Belgium). While these are capable aircraft, their range and payload limitations may make them a dubious contender to replace the TU-142. Farther up the range scale, maritime variants of their ATR 42 and ATR 72 short-haul passenger turboprops are produced for some customers, and EADS also refurbishes and maintains Spanish P-3C Orion aircraft.

In the end, however, their primary offering was “none of the above.” A July 2007 Defense News report suggests that rather than using any of the proven designs above, EADS is leveraging equipment from these efforts to create a maritime patrol variant of the Airbus A319 passenger jet for this competition. The design is not expected to become operational before 2014, however, which means that EADS’ shorter-range options may become relevant again if India’s Navy seeks an interim buy as part of a package deal.

Meanwhile, Airbus and Boeing have both made substantial investments in India, and both are seriously examining the possibility of partnering with Indian companies to jointly develop communications, data-link and identification friend-or-foe (IFF) equipment as part of their bids.


IL-38 May
Russia’s IL-38 May is about the same vintage as the P-3C Orion. Only 3 aircraft remain in Indian service from the original set of 5, after 2 of the aircraft were lost in an airshow collision. Unlike the TU-142s, however, the status of their upgrades is clear. India Defence reports that the first of 3 improved Il-38SD maritime anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft has been delivered to the Indian Navy following upgrades in Russia, at a cost of about $35 million per plane.

The IL-38 upgrade includes the Leninets Morskoy Zmei (Sea Dragon) digital common patrol suite, which is designed to detect and intercept surface vessels and submarines as well as detect mines and carry out surveillance. Like the Israeli M-2202A, the suite can also detect airborne targets, and it can be linked to the Russian Glonass GPS satellite navigation system. India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation has supplied the new IL-38SD’s electronic intelligence system, electronic countermeasures station system, digital firing decoys and radio communication system. India also plans to mount the medium-range PJ-10 BrahMos supersonic cruise missile on this aircraft in the near future.

Another 4 similarly upgraded IL-38SDs will be delivered to the Indian Navy by early in 2007, bringing the fleet to 7 – but the upgrades themselves have had problems due to poor delivery from DRDO, and the age of refurbished airframes has to be a concern for a long-term buy like this one. The IL-38SD may become an “interim buy” option, however, if India’s preferred choice is not immediately available.


Falcon 900DX
There were reports in April 2005 that India might be interested in a modified MPA based on Dassault’s high-end Falcon 900 business jet. Though the platform was absent from most subsequent coverage, the reports turned out to be true.

In September 2007, IANS reported that Israel Aerospace Industries and its subsidiary Elta Systems had submitted a proposal based on this jet, leveraging Elta systems extensive experience with naval radars and other surveillance systems, and IAI’s experience converting business jets into surveillance platforms. The tri-engine Falcon 900 may be a business jet, but it’s known as a VIP class offering with a lot of space and a 4,100-4,500 nautical mile (7,600-8,330 km) unrefueled range.

The Falcon 900 is many things, but ‘cheap’ is not one of them. Bid prices could easily approach those of larger aircraft like the refurbished P-3Cs, which may complicate IAI’s odds of being selected as an interim solution. On the other hand, Israel has deep relationships of its own in India, and IAI’s Heron and Searcher II UAVs could allow IAI to offer an integrated manned/ unmanned surveillance system that costs far less than higher-end options like the P-8A/BAMS, and offers proven aircraft/UAV integration that can be added to larger aircraft like the A319 or P-8A later on.

Nimrod Mk2 via NATO
BAE Systems’ modernized Nimrod MRA4 program received consideration from the USA as a replacement option for its P-3C Orions, but pressures for standardization with the global civil air fleet and a desire for a “made in America” solution pushed them to adopt the 737-based P-8A instead. A British program was begun in 1996 to rebuild their existing Nimrod Mk2 fleet to the MRA4 standard with new wings, engines, internal systems, and mission systems. Unfortunately, that program faced a series of budget cuts, stalls, and conditions before getting a go-ahead for 12 aircraft in July 2006.

At present, the first Nimrod MRA4 isn’t expected to enter service until around 2010. Given the cutbacks in the modernization program, however, some older Nimrod Mk2 and MR1 airframes might have become available for sale and refurbishment.


Northrop-Grumman, which has held discussions with India around its E-2D Hawkeye 2000 carrier-capable AWACS aircraft, is also listed as one of the solicited companies by the India Defence report. The only asset they have which would fit the maritime surveillance category, however, is the RQ-4 Global Hawk High-Altitude, Long Endurance (HALE) UAV. As DID has noted, the Global Hawk is under consideration for a Maritime Surveillance role with the USA and Australia; indeed, a “Pacific pool” approach similar to the NATO E-3 AWACS model, and involving The USA, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand, is currently under active consideration.

A recent demonstration flight using a smaller RQ-4A Global Hawk took off from Adelaide, Australia and spent loiter time over Japan and Singapore before returning. While the Global Hawk lacks the payload capacity for sonobuoys, missiles, et. al. possessed by all other contenders, the prospect of joining other friendly countries and sharing in the resulting intelligence data from all over the Pacific could be very interesting. It would sharply blunt India’s long-range offensive capabilities once the TU-142s were retired, but if this was seen as a bridge until the P-8A’s arrival, the intelligence benefits could make the proposal very attractive. Nevertheless, media reports do not list Northrop Grumman among the RFP respondents.

UPDATES

Aug 10/08: Sindh Today reports that India ’s contract negotiating committee has completed its report on price negotiations with Boeing, after the P-8I won the technical bid and the trials of the product. Negotiations were reportedly stuck due to the end-user agreement, under which Boeing can conduct physical inspections of the aircraft as and when it wants to check if the product is being used for the purpose it has been acquired. This is linked to requirements under American ITAR laws, which regulate sales of military equipment whether they are conducted as FMS or direct commercial sales. India’s defence ministry reportedly separated that set of negotiations from the deal itself, knowing that a signed deal will be significantly harder to cancel, on either side.

The contract will reportedly be a direct commercial agreement between the Boeing company and the Indian Navy, rather than an announced Foreign Military Sale. The cost is reportedly around around $2.2 billion, and that deal will now go to the defence acquisition committee (DAC) and then to the cabinet committee on security (CCS) for approval.

Aug 9/08: During a lecture in New Delhi, Indian Naval Chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta reportedly vowed that:

“By 2022, we plan to have 160-plus ship navy, including three aircraft carriers, 60 major combatants including submarines and close to 400 aircraft of different types. This will be a formidable three dimentional force with satellite surveillance and networking to provide force multiplication”


April 20/08: India’s NDTV reports that:

“India is set to sign a $2.2 billion deal, its biggest with the US, for eight long-range maritime reconnaissance (LRMR) aircraft, even as the Indian Navy chief opposed ‘’intrusiveness’’ in the use of military hardware the country purchases.

Negotiations for the purchase of the Boeing-P8I LRMR aircraft are in the final stages and are likely to be wrapped up during Indian Navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta’s visit to the US that began Sunday [DID: That did not happen]. The agreement for the purchase under the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route will be signed between the two governments in New Delhi later this year, official sources said.”

Sept 7/07: India’s IANS wire service reports that the Indian Navy has completed evaluations of maritime patrol aircraft (MRA) on schedule, including a 4-member navy team led by a one-star officer who observed MRA derivative trials and simulations in July 2007 for the Airbus A319 in Spain and Boeing’s P-8A Poseidon MMA in the US. WebIndia story.

They also offer a list of bids submitted: Boeing, EADS Airbus, IAI/Elta, Lockheed Martin, and Rosoboronexport; plus this interesting tidbit:

“But official sources said since the navy was more interested in the longer range MRAs still under development, it was “seriously considering” acquiring two or three of the existing shorter range aircraft as an interim measure to plug a vital operational void in patrolling India’s vast coastline.”

July 3/07: Defense News reports that Indian officials will be studying Boeing and Airbus aircraft in France, Germany, Spain and the United States as they prepare for a decision re: their maritime patrol aircraft competition. Defense News report.

Don’t get too excited about outcomes, though; India’s procurement system has already solicited bids, and will be sending preliminary evaluations go to the Defence Ministry by September 2007, which will lead to a short list of bidders. A preliminary decision and price negotiations will begin “within two years.” Past experience has demonstrated that such price negotiations can take years themselves – or even sink deals entirely.

May 14/07: India’s Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) warned in a report that the first 2 of 5 upgraded IL-38SDs remain without essential avionics and weapon systems that are “seriously limiting their [the Il-38SD’s] operational capabilities.” The problem? As usual… “unrealistic assumption” about the capability of timely indigenous development of certain avionics systems, and lead-time for import of necessary weapon systems. India Defence | Times of India

April 20/06: Lockheed’s deal reportedly includes a combination offer: 8 upgraded US Navy P-3C aircraft for $550-700 million; and 16 multi-mission MH-60R helicopters from Sikorsky costing $350-400 million.

April 13/06: Team Boeing announces its proposal to develop and deliver 8 P-8I Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft variants, touting its commonality and supportability benefits. The Boeing team includes CFM, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and Smiths Aerospace, and their proposal includes the development of a unique Indian navy P-8 configuration, significant participation for Indian industry, test and certification activities, and 8 aircraft delivered over a 4-year period. See release – and note that Boeing just pledged to invest $1.5 billion in India’s aerospace industry, as part of a $6 billion deal with Air India.

India’s Navy Holding Maritime Patrol Aircraft Competition (updated)

 

[ejaz007]

Since this issue is expected to remain under discussion for some time to come why don't we discuss all issues related to this under one thread.