India nuclear deal could trigger arms race: US lawmakers

[Neo]

Nuclear exporters mull lifting India trade ban​

By Veronika Oleksyn
Thu Aug 21, 2008

VIENNA, Austria - A group of nations that export nuclear material on Thursday debated whether to give India access to nuclear fuel and technology — a decision crucial to finalizing a landmark U.S.-India deal lifting a ban on such sales.

The deal would reverse more than three decades of U.S. policy that has barred the sale of nuclear fuel and technology to India, a country that has not signed international nonproliferation accords and has tested nuclear weapons.

The International Atomic Energy Agency approved the deal earlier this month.

But India still needs approval from the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, or NSG, whose members were meeting in Vienna to discuss whether to grant India a waiver. Observers said the group, which operates by consensus, was unlikely to relax its rules during the highly secretive two-day meeting, and some suggested it could take up to three meetings before a decision is made.

Some countries are enticed by the prospect of doing more business with India, and appear to back a U.S. argument that the deal would bring India into the nonproliferation mainstream. Washington considers the deal with New Delhi a foreign policy priority.

But others are concerned that exporting nuclear fuel and technology to a country that has not made a legally binding disarmament pledge could set a dangerous precedent and weaken efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and materials. Leading up to the meeting, some also argued against making any hasty decision to fit into the U.S. congressional calendar.

Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon declined to comment after briefing NSG members on Thursday. Other participants described it as useful, and said the atmosphere at the morning session was cordial.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Robert Wood said the United States was "very hopeful" that the NSG will approve a waiver for India.

"Time is running short," Wood said, referring to a U.S. congressional calendar that has only a few weeks of work left before lawmakers are scheduled to break for the rest of the year to campaign for November elections.

The exemption would give India access to technology and fuel normally reserved for countries that have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and allow their nuclear facilities to be fully inspected.

Iran is sure to object to the deal, arguing that India — which developed nuclear arms in secret — is now being rewarded with access to atomic technology. Iran is under U.N. sanctions for refusing to freeze its nuclear activities, though it insists the program is peaceful despite international concerns it is a cover for developing weapons.

"Approval would weaken nonproliferation efforts and negotiations with Iran," Ulrike Lunacek, a member of Austria's Greens, said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. She also urged Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik to block the waiver for India.

The NSG was created in response to India's nuclear test explosion 34 years ago, which marked the country's shift from maintaining a foreign-supplied civilian nuclear program to developing atomic arms.

 

[Neo]

No green light for US-India nuke deal just yet: diplomat​

by Simon Morgan
Thu Aug 21, 2008

VIENNA (AFP) - A controversial US-India nuclear cooperation deal ran into resistance at a key meeting here Thursday with one diplomat saying nuclear-exporting countries were unlikely to approve the deal this week.

The Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the export and sale of nuclear technology worldwide, began a two-day meeting to debate amending its rules and allow India -- which refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) -- to share US knowhow.

But at the end of the first day of talks, one diplomat who attended the meeting said that agreement was "not possible" this time and an additional meeting would be necessary early in September.

Asked as he came out of the meeting whether the highly-secretive 45-member NSG was likely to reach consensus by Friday, the diplomat, who declined to be identified, replied "it's not possible."

Other delegates said nothing as they left the meeting at Japan's permanent mission to the IAEA.

Bilateral discussions would be held between different NSG member states on Friday morning with a full plenary session set to begin again at around 1:00 pm (1100 GMT), diplomats said.

Even though a number of countries have openly expressed reservations about the so-called 123 Agreement, which was signed by Washington and New Delhi in 2005, the head of the US delegation, State Department Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security, John Rood, remained optimistic.

"We've had a very full discussion today," he told reporters.

"This is a serious subject and it's a roomful of serious people who have taken it in that manner. Certainly there are additional discussions that we will have tomorrow," Rood said.

"But for our part, we continue to believe that this is a very important initiative and we remain committed to achieving an outcome that is both a net benefit for the non-proliferation regime and that meets India's energy needs."

The US had "an important emerging relationship with India," Rood said.

"I think there is a lot of support for this internationally. And so I remain optimistic that we're going to be able to be successful in this process," Rood said.

Under NSG rules, all nuclear trade with India is banned because it refuses to sign the NPT.

The United States argues that the deal will bring India closer into the NPT fold after 34 years of isolation and help combat global warming by allowing the world's largest democracy to develop low-polluting nuclear energy.

Critics argue, however, that the deal undermines international non-proliferation efforts by providing US nuclear technology to a non-NPT state that developed atomic bombs in secret and conducted its first nuclear test in 1974.

They accuse the nuclear states supporting the deal of ignoring the proliferation dangers in pursuit of commercial and political gains.

Russia and France would also be free to begin nuclear trade with India if the NSG agrees to the US-India deal.

The deal must clear three major hurdles before it can come into effect.

The first came earlier this month when the UN atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, approved an India-specific safeguards agreement.

The NSG represents the next obstacle before the deal must finally be approved by the US Congress.

Unanimous approval is required from the NSG, but some members have been openly sceptical.

Phil Goff, New Zealand's minister for disarmament and arms control, told an Indian newspaper Wednesday that his country "has not arrived at a final position" on whether to approve the deal, but "like a number of countries, we do have reservations."
Austria, Switzerland, Ireland and Norway are also believed to harbour similar concerns.

The Arms Control Association of the United States and several other non-governmental organisations and experts called the proposal a "non-proliferation disaster" in an August 15 letter to the NSG.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Nuclear suppliers propose terms for US-India deal​

* Conditions include UN inspections of Indian N-sites, no further nuclear tests

VIENNA: Nuclear supplier nations on Thursday proposed conditions for lifting a global ban on fuel and technology exports to India, a step required to implement a United States-India nuclear co-operation deal.

A green light from the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is needed for the deal, which has drawn criticism because India has not joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to proceed to the US Congress for final ratification. Diplomats said up to 20 NSG states had tabled conditions for India to do business with the cartel, despite its repeated calls for a “clean, unconditional” exemption from rules barring trade with an NPT outsider that has tested nuclear bombs.

“There were proposals on practically every paragraph,” said a European diplomat, referring to a US waiver draft that some delegations and disarmament critics said was too vague to ensure NPT principles would be safeguarded.

Conditions: Diplomats said conditions included full-scope UN inspections of Indian nuclear sites, no more test explosions and periodic reviews of Indian compliance with the exemption, which would be the first in the NSG’s 33-year history. A NSG waiver granting India access to nuclear fuel and technology markets would end an embargo imposed on it after it test-detonated a nuclear bomb in 1974, with Canadian technology imported ostensibly to develop peaceful atomic energy. New Delhi is one of only three nations not to have signed the non-proliferation treaty.

Special US legislation enacted in 2006, known as the Hyde Act, established conditions for US nuclear commerce with India, including no more test explosions.

Decisive NSG meeting: A second decisive meeting is expected in early September to agree on the extent of the conditions. “Tomorrow, we will try to narrow down the focus to how the text can be tightened to satisfy all concerns. We (envisage) another meeting in early September,” said another EU diplomat, adding, “But it’s fair to say the issues raised follow closely in line with what is in the Hyde Act.” reuters

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So wouldn't this indicate that the NSG members are working towards implementing the conditions of the Hyde act into the deal?

What would the basis be for opposition to imposing such conditions (outside of India )?

Of course we cannot ignore potential US arm twisting to get its way.

 

[nitesh]

Let's see what is the end result come out today

 

[jaison]

Let's see what is the end result come out today

right,even if there are any reservations from any of the members the process can be repeated after 72 hours,but indian diplomats seem to be confident in convincing them the first time.

 

[nitesh]

Guys check this:

TIMESNOW.tv - Latest Breaking News, Big News Stories, News Videos -

 

[Contrarian]

So wouldn't this indicate that the NSG members are working towards implementing the conditions of the Hyde act into the deal?

What would the basis be for opposition to imposing such conditions (outside of India )?

Of course we cannot ignore potential US arm twisting to get its way.

Only three members of NSG are actively gunning for putting up conditions in the waiver. Austria, Ireland and New Zealand. The others want it, but are not going to go against the current draft either.

I dont know, all i know that India is arguing that it has a unilateral moratorium on testing, and it would never make it multilateral. Thus effectively a mention of testing in the waiver would make India walk out because otherwise it becomes legally binding.

 

[bhangra12345]

Basically the countries which "actually" have any role in the whole affair, who benefit and those who are strategically affected have agreed.

Eg: Russia, US, France primary suppliers of nuke tech. China has agreed. Canada which had the CANDU reactor has agreed. Japan has agreed.

The countries which are their for "naam ke vaaste" and do not gain or lose anything, basically empty vessels, new zealand, switzerland and co have problem.

But then empty vessels make the highest noise. and because of the veto these enjoy in NSG have ability to make it. THe only question is whether the "main NSG" which benefits/ are affected will force these freeloaders to toe the line or not. The only problem in this if these freeloaders are being used as a front by the main guyz to extract concessions.

These empty guyz are stopping the real guyz from making profits and strategic deals with India.

 

[nitesh]

yeah the deal is good for India but in case if it doesn't goes through nothing much to read in to it. As usual we need to do things on our own, need to concentrate on fast breeder tech and work more hard that's about it.

 

[Contrarian]

I personally dont think that it can be resolved today. Another meeting might need to be called next week.

And even I think that these freeloaders are being used by the main guys to extract concessions from India.
Oh well...lets see.

 

[nitesh]

yup seems what u r saying will happen, it seems to be getting delayed:

NSG resumes discussions on waiver to India

 

[nitesh]

hmm this is a sticking point, seems this could stop the provisions to be lifted:

India says no to new provisions in NSG draft-India-The Times of India

India says no to new provisions in NSG draft
22 Aug 2008, 1834 hrs IST,IANS

VIENNA: A proposed provision in the Nuclear Suppliers' Group draft seeking to halt all nuclear commerce between the Group and India if it conducted further tests seemed to have become the sticking point as the 45-member NSG went into the second round of its meeting here Friday.

Most members are in favour of lifting the current ban that prevents nuclear commerce between the NSG and a non-signatory of the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), like India. But some NSG members insist that it should not be lifted unless New Delhi formally says no to further nuclear tests.

India has made it clear it will not accept any "new" provisions in the draft that the United States had prepared for the NSG before its two-day meeting began here Thursday.

"There is no question of India accepting any conditions or any new provision in the draft," sources said.

India has announced a voluntary moratorium on further tests, but it has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) that prevents countries from conducting further tests.

Some NSG members like Austria, Ireland and Switzerland have serious reservations of giving India a "clean waiver" without a formal assurance from it that there will be no further tests.

Sources said these members have suggested that the provision to stop all commerce with India on civil nuclear energy be brought in if New Delhi conducts any tests in future.

Asked whether India will walkout from the talks if it does not get a "clean waiver," sources said, "We are not even a member of the NSG. If at all, it is the Americans who should stage a walkout."

But the US has been engaged in hectic lobbying with the Indian delegation that include foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon and the prime minister's 'special envoy' Shyam Saran to agree to "the subtle" changes in the draft.

A lot may depend on the final wording and whether the Indian delegation is comfortable with it. But if it feels the new language to be "objectionable", it may reject it altogether.

Attempts are also on by members of the US delegation to convince the NSG members, particularly those who are keen on the provision in the draft, to drop the idea. If that happens the possibility of a clean waiver from the NSG, with the support of the 45-member countries may be reached by the end of the second-day's meeting.

But if the differences between the two sides continue then the Americans may try to get an assurance from the NSG for a future meeting - probably in September to resolve the issue, sources said.

Till Thursday, when the NSG members began their two-day meeting here both India and the US seemed hopeful with John Rood, US under secretary, arms control and international security, saying he was "optimistic that we will be successful in this process."

From the Indian point of view, the mood remained upbeat, as foreign secretary Menon's briefing to the NSG members seemed to have had a "positive and satisfying" effect on them.

Answering queries from the members, the foreign secretary had tried to convince them why the lifting of the existing ban will not only benefit India but also the 45-members of the NSG and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime.

The mood, however, seemed to have changed after some of the NSG members started insisting that the provision to halt commerce with India if it conducts further tests be introduced in the draft.

 

[Neo]

Honestly I don't think India or US can pull it off, without a unilateral ban on further tests the waiver seems like a no go to me.

NSG, NPT and IAEA will look like fools once India resumes testing making them all nuclear proliferators.

 

[nitesh]

Yes your point is correct to an extent, but the question is why India will start testing at first place, there was no need to put unilateral ban on first place.

 

[Neo]

India will need to collect new data inorder to modernise nuclear arsnal and make better and more powerful designs, it can't be done with cold simulations, you'll have to test new devices.

The N5 have conducted couple of thousands nuclear tests with enough data to develop more effective designs, something India can't do with only six minor tests.

Check Worldwide Nuclear Testing