India joining Quad will do more harm than good

[INDIAPOSITIVE]

dailyo.in
India joining Quad will do more harm than good
5-6 minutes
Why is there so much hullabaloo about the so-called "strategic quadrilateral" involving the United States, Japan, India and Australia? From the Indian perspective, I mean to say.

What India stands to gain from this rejuvenated multilateral forum better known simply as the Quad?

Well, India doesn’t stand to gain much out of the Quad. In fact, it stands to lose more than it can possibly gain. Here’s why.

First of all, it won’t change the dynamics of India’s bilateral relationship with any of the three powers in the Quad initiative – the US, Japan or Australia – as with each of these foreign powers India already enjoys a strategic partnership with varying degrees.

Is the Quad a military alliance like NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or Warsaw Pact of the erstwhile Soviet era? Is the Quad an alliance at all, even if not a military one? Does one know the architecture of the Quad with respect to what are the duties and obligations of the four member states and the dos and the don’ts of this newest strategic baby?

Image: PTI photo

There are no clear answers to these compelling questions. In any case, the Quad initiative got kicked off on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila just a little while ago at the level of middle-level officials of the foreign ministries of the four member countries. This implies that it will take years before the grouping holds a summit-level meeting to steer it to a new direction, if at all it happens.

As for India, it already enjoys a vibrant bilateral relationship with each of the three powers – Japan, the US and Australia. No details are available as of now as to how the Quad will change the diplomatic and strategic dynamics for India if New Delhi were to choose to go full blast on the Quad initiative.

For example, it doesn’t give India any strategic heft vis-a-vis its known rivals if India were to go gung-ho about the Quad. It doesn’t give the kind of strategic comfort which the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty gave to India which said that any attack on India would be construed as an attack on the Soviet Union and vice versa.

Japan has the American military umbrella in case it is attacked by a foreign power. Australia too is strategically intertwined to the US for decades. But is this the case for the Indians in the Quad initiative? The answer is a big no.

In other words, the Quad initiative is all bluster and empty talks for India as long as it doesn’t specify the takeaways for India.

Worse, while the Quad initiative doesn’t have any pronounced strategic or diplomatic takeaways for India, it does have a sure and inevitable negative fallout.

One, it will inevitably dump India against China. This has far worse strategic implications for New Delhi as India shares border with China and not with any of the Quad powers: Australia, Japan or the US. A malevolent near-abroad neighbour can be far more irksome than benevolent friends far abroad and India must never lose sight of this strategic reality.

Two, the Quad initiative will hasten a China-Russia alliance. This alliance has been in the works given the fast-changing international power matrix but never against India.

The Quad may change this forever and India may have to deal with a Sino-Russian alliance against New Delhi if the Quad initiative were to take steam.

Three, India cannot be unmindful of a regional and near-abroad power like Iran which is currently being hounded by the Trump administration. This, in turn, would mean that India gets sucked into the West Asia strategic quick sands as Iran cannot tolerate any foreign power peaking up its strategic momentum with the US.

Iran will be more cautious of any regional or international arrangement which weakens its strategic leverage with its arch-rival Saudi Arabia.

For India, both are important: Iran as well as Saudi Arabia. And the strategic importance of Iran cannot be underestimated given the recent dalliances between New Delhi and Tehran regarding the Indo-Iran efforts over the Iranian port of Chabahar which gives India a strategic leverage over not just Pakistan, but China as well.

Four, it would effectively sound the death knell for India’s non-aligned status, particularly considering that India is a founder member of the NAM (Non-Aligned Movement).

For India, joining the Quad initiative with specific geopolitical overtones would do more harm than good.

Fifth and last, Australia is a temperamental power within the Quad and India must not forget that it was Australia which had punctured the Quad balloon at China's behest a decade ago.

There is no guarantee that Australia won't do it again given its close ties with China and Australia's highly favourable bilateral trade relations with China.

India plays the Quad strategic game with China at its own risk. India would do well to keep away from the Quad until the other three member states are able to convince India of its relevance and importance. That stage still has not reached.


https://www.dailyo.in/politics/quad...t-china-relationship-asean/story/1/20566.html

 

[Khafee]

@ashok321 @Joe Shearer I would appreciate your comments on the OP

Thank You!

 

[DarX]

dailyo.in
India joining Quad will do more harm than good
5-6 minutes
Why is there so much hullabaloo about the so-called "strategic quadrilateral" involving the United States, Japan, India and Australia? From the Indian perspective, I mean to say.

What India stands to gain from this rejuvenated multilateral forum better known simply as the Quad?

Well, India doesn’t stand to gain much out of the Quad. In fact, it stands to lose more than it can possibly gain. Here’s why.

First of all, it won’t change the dynamics of India’s bilateral relationship with any of the three powers in the Quad initiative – the US, Japan or Australia – as with each of these foreign powers India already enjoys a strategic partnership with varying degrees.

Is the Quad a military alliance like NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or Warsaw Pact of the erstwhile Soviet era? Is the Quad an alliance at all, even if not a military one? Does one know the architecture of the Quad with respect to what are the duties and obligations of the four member states and the dos and the don’ts of this newest strategic baby?

Image: PTI photo

There are no clear answers to these compelling questions. In any case, the Quad initiative got kicked off on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila just a little while ago at the level of middle-level officials of the foreign ministries of the four member countries. This implies that it will take years before the grouping holds a summit-level meeting to steer it to a new direction, if at all it happens.

As for India, it already enjoys a vibrant bilateral relationship with each of the three powers – Japan, the US and Australia. No details are available as of now as to how the Quad will change the diplomatic and strategic dynamics for India if New Delhi were to choose to go full blast on the Quad initiative.

For example, it doesn’t give India any strategic heft vis-a-vis its known rivals if India were to go gung-ho about the Quad. It doesn’t give the kind of strategic comfort which the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty gave to India which said that any attack on India would be construed as an attack on the Soviet Union and vice versa.

Japan has the American military umbrella in case it is attacked by a foreign power. Australia too is strategically intertwined to the US for decades. But is this the case for the Indians in the Quad initiative? The answer is a big no.

In other words, the Quad initiative is all bluster and empty talks for India as long as it doesn’t specify the takeaways for India.

Worse, while the Quad initiative doesn’t have any pronounced strategic or diplomatic takeaways for India, it does have a sure and inevitable negative fallout.

One, it will inevitably dump India against China. This has far worse strategic implications for New Delhi as India shares border with China and not with any of the Quad powers: Australia, Japan or the US. A malevolent near-abroad neighbour can be far more irksome than benevolent friends far abroad and India must never lose sight of this strategic reality.

Two, the Quad initiative will hasten a China-Russia alliance. This alliance has been in the works given the fast-changing international power matrix but never against India.

The Quad may change this forever and India may have to deal with a Sino-Russian alliance against New Delhi if the Quad initiative were to take steam.

Three, India cannot be unmindful of a regional and near-abroad power like Iran which is currently being hounded by the Trump administration. This, in turn, would mean that India gets sucked into the West Asia strategic quick sands as Iran cannot tolerate any foreign power peaking up its strategic momentum with the US.

Iran will be more cautious of any regional or international arrangement which weakens its strategic leverage with its arch-rival Saudi Arabia.

For India, both are important: Iran as well as Saudi Arabia. And the strategic importance of Iran cannot be underestimated given the recent dalliances between New Delhi and Tehran regarding the Indo-Iran efforts over the Iranian port of Chabahar which gives India a strategic leverage over not just Pakistan, but China as well.

Four, it would effectively sound the death knell for India’s non-aligned status, particularly considering that India is a founder member of the NAM (Non-Aligned Movement).

For India, joining the Quad initiative with specific geopolitical overtones would do more harm than good.

Fifth and last, Australia is a temperamental power within the Quad and India must not forget that it was Australia which had punctured the Quad balloon at China's behest a decade ago.

There is no guarantee that Australia won't do it again given its close ties with China and Australia's highly favourable bilateral trade relations with China.

India plays the Quad strategic game with China at its own risk. India would do well to keep away from the Quad until the other three member states are able to convince India of its relevance and importance. That stage still has not reached.


https://www.dailyo.in/politics/quad...t-china-relationship-asean/story/1/20566.html

I don't understand why India is hell bent on creating a hostile environment with China and why it can't see how America is fueling this rivalry for its own benefit. If India and China get into a race against one another, both of them will lose and America will maintain its dominance. That is the only outcome of these shenanigans. Nothing else will come out of it.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I think this is a mind-numbingly stupid idea. What does India get from it? Military cooperation and a mutual self-defence pact? Sharing of military technology? Mutual aid, other than military aid, strengthening the foundations of military power? And, on the other hand, what does India stand to lose?

Will the four act as one self-defence entity? If the Japanese are attacked in the Ryu Kyu Islands, will India retaliate by attacking in Nathu La?

Will the US give us the F 35? Just as it has given it/ will give it to her allies, Australia, and Japan? Help us to set up manufacturing lines to manufacture home-grown aircraft? Tanks, ships, even missiles, some day?

How about a common market to encourage trade, strengthen the foundations of development, enable the partners to build a stronger, most robust system?

It sounds as if the answer is negative in all three cases. No mutual pact, no military technology, no economic links. Just more selfie opportunities. AND the guaranteed resentment of China. The Quad is also genetically weak; who can trust the Australian racists? They will be quick to get away and kiss the largest muscle on the Chinese body, at the slight hint of trouble. As they did last time.

The situation looks like a replay on a hugely extended scale of Athens vs. Sparta, Athens unbeatable at sea, Sparta unbeatable on land. But the Indian Navy is nowhere near being in a position to rule the waves and baulk the Chinese, who have roughly three times the ship-building capacity of India.

All in all, a BAD idea. Very Modi in being superficial, self-glorifying and infructuous.

 

[sputnik]

I think this is a mind-numbingly stupid idea. What does India get from it? Military cooperation and a mutual self-defence pact? Sharing of military technology? Mutual aid, other than military aid, strengthening the foundations of military power? And, on the other hand, what does India stand to lose?

Will the four act as one self-defence entity? If the Japanese are attacked in the Ryu Kyu Islands, will India retaliate by attacking in Nathu La?

Will the US give us the F 35? Just as it has given it/ will give it to her allies, Australia, and Japan? Help us to set up manufacturing lines to manufacture home-grown aircraft? Tanks, ships, even missiles, some day?

How about a common market to encourage trade, strengthen the foundations of development, enable the partners to build a stronger, most robust system?

It sounds as if the answer is negative in all three cases. No mutual pact, no military technology, no economic links. Just more selfie opportunities. AND the guaranteed resentment of China. The Quad is also genetically weak; who can trust the Australian racists? They will be quick to get away and kiss the largest muscle on the Chinese body, at the slight hint of trouble. As they did last time.

The situation looks like a replay on a hugely extended scale of Athens vs. Sparta, Athens unbeatable at sea, Sparta unbeatable on land. But the Indian Navy is nowhere near being in a position to rule the waves and baulk the Chinese, who have roughly three times the ship-building capacity of India.

All in all, a BAD idea. Very Modi in being superficial, self-glorifying and infructuous.

It is Good & Bad in some ways:

Bad
1. What is Australia doing here. It is Chinese Protege. they can't give their coal mines to Adani Grp. to run their relic Power Plants what 1 can expect from that. Australia Universities are infested with Chinese Student unions and no action taken against them. But Indians regularly bitten their.

2. Trump administration wants to sell weapons to Japan and India nothing else. It is widely known fact in the US that Trump and his son-in-law wants to Chinese Money in their bank A/cs. They are making contacts with Chinese Business man to "help" them in the US.

3. India itself don't bring much on the table other than good publicity stunt among regional countries. Biggest problem with India is Just over nite change in Govt. due to domestic factors and new govt. will be telling Japan "Who are u, Sir""how can u help us". Congress and others ilks are just waiting for some price tag to get sold asap.

Good
1. Biggest good is this can attract investment and FIIs flow in stock exchanges and Long term Stability. Pretty much everyone in Financial world know this whole grouping is mere lip service.

2. Given Home Grown Govt. legitimate right to power after indian voting system.

3. Some technology and good support at international forums.

Apart from that nothing else. Just photo ops.

 

[Zen0]

Whatever it is , it's good for the economy Chinese , Japan & American firm's will compete & invest in India to gain economic footing for pressure. India the top growing economy out there & everyone wants a egg from the nest before it hatches

Japan co funding their bullet train in India is just a example , it crushed any future dreams of Chinese contractors as long as railway is concerned

 

[protest]

I see more good here than bad. Theren't many who'll kowtow to China in southeast asia. China hasn't been friendly to us, then what's the need for us to play ambiguity in international affairs. You want to beat a bully, make friends. Specially when these friends come with gifts.

 

[ito]

I think this is a mind-numbingly stupid idea. What does India get from it? Military cooperation and a mutual self-defence pact? Sharing of military technology? Mutual aid, other than military aid, strengthening the foundations of military power? And, on the other hand, what does India stand to lose?

Will the four act as one self-defence entity? If the Japanese are attacked in the Ryu Kyu Islands, will India retaliate by attacking in Nathu La?

Will the US give us the F 35? Just as it has given it/ will give it to her allies, Australia, and Japan? Help us to set up manufacturing lines to manufacture home-grown aircraft? Tanks, ships, even missiles, some day?

How about a common market to encourage trade, strengthen the foundations of development, enable the partners to build a stronger, most robust system?

It sounds as if the answer is negative in all three cases. No mutual pact, no military technology, no economic links. Just more selfie opportunities. AND the guaranteed resentment of China. The Quad is also genetically weak; who can trust the Australian racists? They will be quick to get away and kiss the largest muscle on the Chinese body, at the slight hint of trouble. As they did last time.

The situation looks like a replay on a hugely extended scale of Athens vs. Sparta, Athens unbeatable at sea, Sparta unbeatable on land. But the Indian Navy is nowhere near being in a position to rule the waves and baulk the Chinese, who have roughly three times the ship-building capacity of India.

All in all, a BAD idea. Very Modi in being superficial, self-glorifying and infructuous.

I too wouldn't like a rivalry between China and India that saps the energy and is not productive.

But the point is China is trying to assert itself. It is building roads in areas that India claims. It is encouraging Pakistan by giving them weapons against India. It opposes India's entry into NSG, UNSC and supports Masood Azhar against India. China has scant respect for territorial sovereignty of others has as been proved in SCS and Doklam.

India has no option but to fight to save its turf. But trying to check mate China alone would be too much energy sapping. So the next best strategy is join like minded nations that have the same objective.

Yes, no alliance is permanent, but India needs time for another two decades before China thinks twice before messing up with India.

 

[Alphacharlie]

one more threat from china......No one is bothered.

 

[Brickwall]

In current format , its just photo-op but hope in future this Quad initiative could have some meaningful role at least as hedge against Chinese Bullies

 

[randomradio]

I think this is a mind-numbingly stupid idea. What does India get from it? Military cooperation and a mutual self-defence pact? Sharing of military technology? Mutual aid, other than military aid, strengthening the foundations of military power? And, on the other hand, what does India stand to lose?

Will the four act as one self-defence entity? If the Japanese are attacked in the Ryu Kyu Islands, will India retaliate by attacking in Nathu La?

Will the US give us the F 35? Just as it has given it/ will give it to her allies, Australia, and Japan? Help us to set up manufacturing lines to manufacture home-grown aircraft? Tanks, ships, even missiles, some day?

How about a common market to encourage trade, strengthen the foundations of development, enable the partners to build a stronger, most robust system?

It sounds as if the answer is negative in all three cases. No mutual pact, no military technology, no economic links. Just more selfie opportunities. AND the guaranteed resentment of China. The Quad is also genetically weak; who can trust the Australian racists? They will be quick to get away and kiss the largest muscle on the Chinese body, at the slight hint of trouble. As they did last time.

The situation looks like a replay on a hugely extended scale of Athens vs. Sparta, Athens unbeatable at sea, Sparta unbeatable on land. But the Indian Navy is nowhere near being in a position to rule the waves and baulk the Chinese, who have roughly three times the ship-building capacity of India.

All in all, a BAD idea. Very Modi in being superficial, self-glorifying and infructuous.

The Quad is being hyped by the US. India is continuing to work with the US and Japan as it always has in an informal fashion.

But the fear of India potentially joining a formal alliance will keep China on its toes.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The Quad is being hyped by the US. India is continuing to work with the US and Japan as it always has in an informal fashion.

But the fear of India potentially joining a formal alliance will keep China on its toes.

And keeping the world's largest and potentially best army on its toes? That is also a Good Thing?

 

[dreamer4eva]

Its strategic posturing and IMO sitting on fence never helps especially if you have big ambitions. So, think its a good move.

In this globalised world, no one is big enough to hurt others without hurting itself also. It applies to all parties including China also. It works both ways, antagonizing China is not in the best interest of India and antagonizing India in not in the best interest of China either. I don't know why everyone think about China being a one way streak, they have done an outstanding job in last 30 odd years, however, all these rises and falls/stagnations are cyclical. Wages growth, maturing economy and 3d manufacturing will impact China's export oriented strategy in next 10-15 years.

This OBOR is nothing but mitigation for oversupply in steel sector. Compare Chinese steel production to next best and its mind-boggling.

Remember, Detroit in 60s, 70s and 80s where assembly lines workers were making more money than surgeons and look where are they now.

 

[$@rJen]

I don't understand why India is hell bent on creating a hostile environment with China and why it can't see how America is fueling this rivalry for its own benefit. If India and China get into a race against one another, both of them will lose and America will maintain its dominance. That is the only outcome of these shenanigans. Nothing else will come out of it.

then they shouldn't have armed Pakistan against India... they shouldn't have supported the Pakistani based terrorists... they started we're only reacting

 

[punit]

I think this is a mind-numbingly stupid idea. What does India get from it? Military cooperation and a mutual self-defence pact? Sharing of military technology? Mutual aid, other than military aid, strengthening the foundations of military power? And, on the other hand, what does India stand to lose?

Will the four act as one self-defence entity? If the Japanese are attacked in the Ryu Kyu Islands, will India retaliate by attacking in Nathu La?

Will the US give us the F 35? Just as it has given it/ will give it to her allies, Australia, and Japan? Help us to set up manufacturing lines to manufacture home-grown aircraft? Tanks, ships, even missiles, some day?

How about a common market to encourage trade, strengthen the foundations of development, enable the partners to build a stronger, most robust system?

It sounds as if the answer is negative in all three cases. No mutual pact, no military technology, no economic links. Just more selfie opportunities. AND the guaranteed resentment of China. The Quad is also genetically weak; who can trust the Australian racists? They will be quick to get away and kiss the largest muscle on the Chinese body, at the slight hint of trouble. As they did last time.

The situation looks like a replay on a hugely extended scale of Athens vs. Sparta, Athens unbeatable at sea, Sparta unbeatable on land. But the Indian Navy is nowhere near being in a position to rule the waves and baulk the Chinese, who have roughly three times the ship-building capacity of India.

All in all, a BAD idea. Very Modi in being superficial, self-glorifying and infructuous.

Whehter you like it not .. china will leave no opportunity to harm india and it's interest either directly or through its pets.
On the other hand joining a quad is also not a good option. With so much vagueness over the exact nature of alliance and the benefits it's better to tread cautiously. Best option to grow partnership with japan and usa on case to case basis.

And keeping the world's largest and potentially best army on its toes? That is also a Good Thing?

Do you think chinese will respect indian interests ?