Indi-Iranian ties - 5 minutes vs 5,000 years

[BanglaBhoot]

5 minutes vs 5,000 years

Forget what America wants. What will coddling Iran give India? How important is Iran, asks Saubhik Chakravarti

The News Today - August 10, 2007

Is it in India’s interest to define its foreign policy by heroically defending a country under UN sanctions, a country with which India does just over $5 billion trade and which hosts around 500 families of Indian origin? Apparently it is. Not just our Marxists but many eminent members of our chattering class are outraged that India’s beautiful relationship with Iran is at risk courtesy American “threats”.

This argument, if that is the word for it, has been around for a while. But absolutely no one has explained what is so beautiful and vital about India’s relationship with Iran. What is at stake? What has Iran done for us? What can it do for us? And what are India’s next choices in global diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear stand?

Note here that Iran’s core argument about wanting to go ahead with its nuclear programme is that it needs energy. This, from a country sitting on huge oil and gas reserves. When asked why a hydrocarbon-blessed nation should have to look at other options, Iran’s official reply is that it wants to export oil and gas and use nuclear power for domestic energy consumption. In any list of utterly unbelievable diplomatic hogwash, this should figure very high. Also note that every time Iran talks tough on nuclear negotiations, oil prices get jumpy, and that jump translates to a nice value upgrade for Iranian exports.

We need to briefly engage with the so-called civilisational argument. Emptied of contemporary concerns, civilisational arguments cannot determine foreign policy. What happened 5,000 years back isn’t that relevant. Related to this is the ‘romantic’ argument. Iran is a wonderfully interesting country. Iran engenders romance. But so does, in a different sense of course, Ireland. Where’s Ireland in India’s foreign policy? The civilisational/romantic argument is disingenuous when employed by Iranians. It is plain silly when invoked by Indians.

So what is at stake in the Indo-Iranian relationship? A good way to understand this is to compare India’s relations with the Gulf Arab countries. When domestic politics in India gets excited about the so-called Muslim vote in foreign policy, the practitioners of this dangerous trade don’t usually make a distinction between Iranians and Gulf Arabs. Honestly, those seeking the Muslim vote in India should ask Saudi Arabia what it feels about Iran possessing a nuclear bomb.

They should also note that India’s annual non-oil trade with the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) countries is nearly $24 billion. The GCC area has emerged as one of the keenest buyers of Indian exports. Trade analysts put the GCC at par with America in terms of demand creation for Indian goods and services. India’s annual non-oil trade with Iran is just over $5 billion. As for oil trade, two-thirds of India’s oil imports come from GCC countries, around 14 per cent comes from Iran. GCC countries host millions of Indian workers and their remittances are a significant part of India’s foreign exchange reserves. Iran hosts around 500 Indian-origin families. Flights to Gulf countries are prized and there are regular battles between Indian carriers about rights to offer services. No Indian carriers fly to Tehran.

Surely no amount of romance can get in the way of concluding that the crucial relationship India has to maintain in the Middle East is that with Gulf Arabs. And the latter are very suspicious of Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear programme. Note that America doesn’t enter into this argument. Whether or not overexcited American legislators or editorials in the Washington Post grimly talk about India’s “growing cooperation” with Iran, it is in India’s interest to not put Iran above Gulf Arabs in its diplomacy in the Middle East.

Next question, what has Iran done for us? After the September 2005 India vote against Iran at the IAEA, some diplomatic “experts” pointed out why Iran was right to feel hurt — Iranian intervention at a 1994 Geneva meeting on human rights had scuppered a Kashmir-centred, anti-India resolution. But think, how much it must have hurt India when Iran — incidentally, the first country to recognise Pakistan when it was formed — always voted against us during OIC (Organisation of Islamic Conference) deliberations on Kashmir.

True, Iran found common cause with India when Sunni Taliban took over Afghanistan. Shia Iran was nervous. India was nervous. And they both supported Ahmed Shah Masood’s Northern Alliance. Afghanistan remains a priority for India, for Iran — and for the US. None of these countries wants the Taliban to rule again. A working relationship with Tehran is crucial to solving the Afghan question. But that’s not the stuff of a special relationship. It’s a dovetailing of self-interests on a specific issue.

http://www.newstoday-bd.com/editorial.asp?newsdate=#2017

 

[Bull]

Is it in India’s interest to define its foreign policy by heroically defending a country under UN sanctions, a country with which India does just over $5 billion trade and which hosts around 500 families of Indian origin? .

$5bn cant solve India's energy crisis, 500 indian families too isnt good enough reason.

They should also note that India’s annual non-oil trade with the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) countries is nearly $24 billion. The GCC area has emerged as one of the keenest buyers of Indian exports. Trade analysts put the GCC at par with America in terms of demand creation for Indian goods and services.

As for oil trade, two-thirds of India’s oil imports come from GCC countries, around 14 per cent comes from Iran. GCC countries host millions of Indian workers and their remittances are a significant part of India’s foreign exchange reserves. Iran hosts around 500 Indian-origin families. Flights to Gulf countries are prized and there are regular battles between Indian carriers about rights to offer services. No Indian carriers fly to Tehran.

GCC? What has Iran got to do with GCC?

Is it only me that see the total stupidity in copy pasting such articles which doesnt even have the basic facts right?

 

[MIG_ACE]

$5bn cant solve India's energy crisis, 500 indian families too isnt good enough reason.



GCC? What has Iran got to do with GCC?

Is it only me that see the total stupidity in copy pasting such articles which doesnt even have the basic facts right?

Read the article again Bull.The guy's saying that the GCC countries are a lot more important economically to India than Iran.And the GCC countries don't want to see Iran get nukes(particularly Saudi Arabia).And he also says that India needs to keep its relationship with the GCC countries intact at any cost not Iran.

IMHO its a good article.

 

[Averroes]

Gulf nations need to cut ties with india, and Iran needs to follow. We can't let india have any influence in the Muslim world.

 

[Muradk]

Iran matters greatly to India from a strategic perspective. It was in recognition of this reality that Iranian President Khatami was given the honour of being invited as Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day celebrations in 2003. It makes eminent strategic sense for India to have a good understanding with Iran, which is Pakistan’s neighbour and a very influential actor in the Gulf, where India has enormous stakes. Iran is the key country for India’s access to strategically important Afghanistan and Central Asia. After the destruction of Iraq, Iran is the only country to India’s west that stands in the way of complete US domination of the region from South Asia to the Mediterranean. It bears reflection that Iran was included in Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ because it is a fiercely proud and independent country.

Iran is important for India’s long-term energy security too since it holds the world’s second largest oil and gas reserves. Energy supplies from Iran will always remain much more critical for India’s energy security than civil nuclear energy ever will be. That is why India has taken the significant step of de-linking the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project from the overall relationship with Pakistan.

The Iran issue will not go away. No amount of self-deluding sophistry about so-called ‘non-binding’ provisions can airbrush this problem out of the Hyde Act. In his press briefing last week, Burns said that the India-US nuclear deal would make India less dependent on energy imports from countries like Iran, which he described as an “outlaw state” that should be isolated. America, he said, does not want to see a strong relationship between any country and Iran. Just in case the message had not registered, a couple of days later US Ambassador David Mulford candidly warned that India’s relations with Iran will be “carefully reviewed and scrutinized by members of the US Congress as they approach the final vote.” Burns was even more explicit in his August 2 interview. “We very much hope,” he said, “that India will not conclude any long-term oil and gas agreements with Iran.”

Iran is firmly in the US sights and, as in September 2005, India will be expected to stand up and be counted when the time comes. Given the relentless US pressure on India over Iran, it will be a formidable challenge for India to stay the course on energy cooperation with Iran and to keep its overall relationship with Iran on an even keel.

 

[Bull]

Iran matters greatly to India from a strategic perspective. It was in recognition of this reality that Iranian President Khatami was given the honour of being invited as Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day celebrations in 2003. It makes eminent strategic sense for India to have a good understanding with Iran, which is Pakistan’s neighbour and a very influential actor in the Gulf, where India has enormous stakes. Iran is the key country for India’s access to strategically important Afghanistan and Central Asia. After the destruction of Iraq, Iran is the only country to India’s west that stands in the way of complete US domination of the region from South Asia to the Mediterranean. It bears reflection that Iran was included in Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ because it is a fiercely proud and independent country..

Those are exactly the reasons why US wants Iran.

Iran is firmly in the US sights and, as in September 2005, India will be expected to stand up and be counted when the time comes. Given the relentless US pressure on India over Iran, it will be a formidable challenge for India to stay the course on energy cooperation with Iran and to keep its overall relationship with Iran on an even keel.

Stand up and do what? If you cant do anything then i think its better to stay mum abt it. Do you really India can make any difference in the Iran-US ties? Once uncle sam has its 'radar locked on' then there is nothing thats going to unlock it. The secret is in staying low till you have the stuff to stand upto uncle.

 

[BanglaBhoot]

The secret is in staying low till you have the stuff to stand upto uncle.

Are these India's ultimate plans ... not remaining a regional power but becoming a superpower and in the meantime throw out inconvenient problems like Iran until the situation improves for India. Do you think the US will allow you to go that far so you could challenge it? Is that not one of the reasons it is trying to take on Iran?

 

[Bull]

Are these India's ultimate plans ... not remaining a regional power but becoming a superpower and in the meantime throw out inconvenient problems like Iran until the situation improves for India. Do you think the US will allow you to go that far so you could challenge it? Is that not one of the reasons it is trying to take on Iran?

That would be my plan. Iran can be considered a regional power if it hadnt blowed up the golden oppurtunity to provide safe energy supplies to the hungry world, instead it went for nukes and now soon would be eating grass.