IMF lowers economic growth projections for Pakistan

[Devil Soul]

IMF lowers economic growth projections for Pakistan
By Ismail Sheikh / AFP
Published: April 8, 2014

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Production (GDP) for the current year by 0.1 and 0.4 per cent for the 2015.

Earlier IMF had predicted that the average GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East and North Africa to be 3.3 and 4.8, which it revised on Tuesday to 3.2 for 2014 and 4.4 for the year 2015.

The IMF report acknowledged that the manufacturing sector in Pakistan recovered faster than it was expected on the back of improved electricity supply and recent exchange rate depreciation. But this positive development was offset by weak cotton production.

The real GDP growth rate which was 3.6 in the year 2013 is projected at 3.1 and 3.7 per cent for the year 2014 and 2015 respectively.

The report forecast the current account deficit for Pakistan for current and next year at 0.9 and 1.0 per cent, which was one per cent in the previous year.

According to the IMF report, unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 6.9 per cent in 2014 and 7.2 per cent in 2015, which was 6.7 in 2013.

IMF has also lowered its overall projection for the world economic growth this year and next year, reflecting slowing activity in the emerging and developing economies.

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4:34 PM - 8 Apr 2014

Here are the IMF’s new predictions for annual gross domestic product growth in 2014 and 2015, with the change in percentage points from its January 2013 World Economic Outlook update in parentheses.

 

[ziaulislam]

projections are estimates only.
govt can only take pace if its solve power crisis. IMF knows that its not possible to solve power crisis in next 4 years unless some major gas source comes or there is massive investment in coal, which we are not seeing.
power sector alone is shaving off 2% growth and is major source for current account deficit due to expensive furnance oil.
in other words had PPPP solved power crisis we would had a comfortable 5-6 % growth despite all odds

 

[Edevelop]

First year of new Govt is all about new policies, reforms etc. Take a look at year 2015, the Growth will climb from 3.2% to 4.4 %. Again if Terrorism and Energy crisis are solved, it will go even higher.

 

[RazorMC]

I'm guessing the reduction applies to all countries in the bracket (MENA+Afg+Pakistan) as an average. If this is so, then IMF could also be looking at Afghanistan's expected GDP to slow down after the withdrawal begins, thus lowering the overall projection.


~ RazorMC

 

[farhan_9909]

As in the past,Pakistan always has growth rate atleast 1-1.5% higher than the IMF estimated

I remember in 2012 they estimated 2.8% for Pakistan but we grew by 4.2%,Now In the IMF database aswell

My estimated target this year is 4.4-4.7%