IMF June forecast: China only major economy to have positive growth in 2020

[Kai Liu]

Look at the 2021 projections , 8.2 for China and 6.0 for India. Since China is a totally export dependent economy these PROJECTIONS are all vaporware , since they are dependent on foreign countries.
Countries like Indonesia and India, which are domestic consumption dependent have a much better growth prospect.
Chinese are well known to give fake figures to world bodies. This is another example.

LMAO...Take a look at how much you 'domestic consumption dependent' can consume compare to the 'totolly export dependent enconomy':
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/stat...f-luxury-cars-sold-in-china-in-a-year.650063/

And your buddy are boasting here like crazy:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...and-sales-above-11-000-byd-2-at-7-395.670294/

If we wanted to, we could have already declared in 2012 that our growth was 2000%, our GDP is $20T USD surpassing US, but we never did that
Hopefully someday Hindus will learn the value of integrity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subramanian_Swamy

Indonesia still has chance to have positive growth this year since Indonesia economy is a domestic market driven one, so less vulnerable to get negative effect from weakening global demand. During 2008 global economic crisis, for instant, Indonesia economy still grew at 4.5 % while other countries get negative growth, even India with huge domestic demand also experience quite deep contraction during that period.

Countries in other ASEAN 5 like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are all export driven economy and will get huge negative impact from the weakening global demand. Even Singapore has already experience economic growth contraction last year due to US-China trade war.

What is needed for Indonesia to get positive growth is to keep Covid 19 infection in manageable rate so that domestic demand can still be able to spur the economy. In the first quarter, Indonesia can still manage to get 2.4 % growth while in second quarter Indonesia IMO will not contract too deep since the lock down measure in here was quite relax and many businesses were still operating.

Talking about export nations, China can not even make into the top 100 by export/GDP ratio either:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-GDP_ratio

 

[Indos]

Talking about export nations, China can not even make into the top 100 by export/GDP ratio either:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-GDP_ratio

I know that China still have big domestic market that can sustain their economy during global economy slow down, thats why I dont mention China in my previous post.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

Its called having the virus under control with a big testing capacity.
Test-Contact Trace - Isolate.

 

[Indos]

Indonesia is making a mistake here, within a month or two, Indonesia economy will tank because the coronavirus. It does not look good. Just look at the charts, its growing faster.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/

I know it, my calculation also consider our current infection rate. So far the business activity have come back into normality amid the outbreak that is still going on. The medication, alhamduliLLAH, is also showing improvement with recovered patients increase rapidly and the hospital so far can still handle the amount of Covid patients, even doctors are now working not as hard as in the beginning of the outbreak, they dont work straight 5 days anymore, I know it since my sister and brother work in hospital that become a referred hospital for Covid 19 patients in Indonesia.

All of the things that are needed to combat this outbreak like PPE, mask, testing kit, ventilators have already been manufactured in the country in a good amount and we prepare to fight the disease for long period of time. Government keep giving awareness for people daily to keep wearing mask and do social distancing measure.

I dont know when it will be ended, but my calculation say that despite the infection rate is still high, I predict we can still score 0.5-1 percent economic growth for 2020. Look, it is a prediction and time will tell whether it will be true or not. Of course I hope my prediction will be true, or maybe the economic growth can be even higher than that, inshaAllah.

 

[powastick]

I know it, my calculation also consider our current infection rate. So far the business activity have come back into normality amid the outbreak that is still going on. The medication, alhamduliLLAH, is also showing improvement with recovered patients increase rapidly and the hospital so far can still handle the amount of Covid patients, even doctors are now working not as hard as in the beginning of the outbreak, they dont work straight 5 days anymore, I know it since my sister and brother work in hospital that become a referred hospital for Covid 19 patients in Indonesia.

All of the things that are needed to combat this outbreak like PPE, mask, testing kit, ventilators have already been manufactured in the country in a good amount and we prepare to fight the disease for long period of time. Government keep giving awareness for people daily to keep wearing mask and do social distancing measure.

I dont know when it will be ended, but my calculation say that despite the infection rate is still high, I predict we can still score 0.5-1 percent economic growth for 2020. Look, it is a prediction and time will tell whether it will be true or not. Of course I hope my prediction will be true, or maybe the economic growth can be even higher than that, inshaAllah.

If I were you, i would start shifting my assets into safe haven before everyone starts panicking. So far, countries such as Sweden without strict lockdown have not seen improvement. I think Indonesia will eventually go into lockdown.

 

[Daniel808]

Its called having the virus under control with a big testing capacity.
Test-Contact Trace - Isolate.

And Discipline of their people.
Without any discipline, thats mean nothing.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

And Discipline of their people.
Without any discipline, thats mean nothing.

Exactly.

 

[Daniel808]

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020

Covid-19 pandemic has truly separated the wheat from the chaff, the competent from the incompetent

Anyway back to topic,

This is crazy, that's mean in 2020 and 2021. China will growth almost 10%
Meanwhile like US, they will have 5% loss (negative growth)

Poor US