IMF cuts India growth forecast to 4.9%

[arp2041]

But there are a lot of Indian politicians (Congress) who are jealous of Modi's economic success, and who have the power and the means to slander his reputation beyond repair.

Don't worry mate, the more he is targeted the more he get popular, actually i attribute his popularity to Congress more than the work he has done in Gujarat , in the last assembly elections of Gujarat Ms. Gandhi called him "Maut ka Saudagar" (merchant of death) & entire population of Gujarat garnered around him to make him Chief Minister again with 65% majority & that was the election which brought Modi to the national stage.

@topic, i don't think Indian growth rate will be at least below 6% mark for the current fiscal, b'coz of the following reasons:

1. Appreciation of rupee from as low as 58 to dollar to currently 52 to dollar.
2. Govt. control of budget deficit.
3. Recent reform measures taken by govt.
4. Since the Q1 growth was 5.5% , when the world scenario was bleak, the trend that i now see is only upwards as oppose to downwards so achieving 6% is more than possible.

 

[my2cents]

The IMF is trying to play it safe. The global trend right now is downwards, so they are cutting projections all around.

But India's recent set of reforms, should boost the GDP growth rate upwards in the next few quarters, not downwards as the IMF is suggesting.

They just gave OK to IKEA to set up shop here. They agreed for 30 percent local sourcing.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I saw this news a few days ago on FT. It came out just about the same time as India's recent reforms.

So I'm quite sure they haven't taken the recent reforms into account, since they didn't have enough time to factor it in.

The reforms would almost certainly boost the growth rate upwards rather than downwards.

 

[arp2041]

I saw this news a few days ago on FT. It came out just about the same time as India's recent reforms.

So I'm quite sure they haven't taken the recent reforms into account, since they didn't have enough time to factor it in.

The reforms would almost certainly boost the growth rate upwards rather than downwards.

Actually, Indian people have become quite mature & have started to acknowledge the importance of GDP growth rate nos., this is the post LPG (post 1991) era of Indian economy & pop. now doesn't get satisfied with the pre-1991 era Hindu rate of growth, where even 5% growth rate achieved was phenomenal. IMO, if the present govt. don't take measures & Indian GDP rate indeed get fall below the 5% mark than there will be serious repercussions for this govt. & even resulting into it's falling, already the scams that has tainted the image of the present govt. is certainly not helping the image either.

 

[karsh]

Actually, Indian people have become quite mature & have started to acknowledge the importance of GDP growth rate nos., this is the post LPG (post 1991) era of Indian economy & pop. now doesn't get satisfied with the pre-1991 era Hindu rate of growth, where even 5% growth rate achieved was phenomenal. IMO, if the present govt. don't take measures & Indian GDP rate indeed get fall below the 5% mark than there will be serious repercussions for this govt. & even resulting into it's falling, already the scams that has tainted the image of the present govt. is certainly not helping the image either.

The present government is going to fall, regardless of the growth rate. I believe Kejriwal will see to that.

 

[Punjabbi Munda]

Don't think so there has been loads of reform policies announced,the rupee has gained to around 52 from approx 56 to a dollar about 2 weeks ago,stock market has also improved a lot,FDI and foreign remittances have increased too,so I think the data should improve for us!

 

[Splurgenxs]

ignore this news plz...What is a forecast ...its hilarious tht they come up with fore casts in such a volatile scenario.

these are just pressure tactics to push more pro western reforms.

 

[Nair saab]

Its not that only big Ticket reform that can be made to achieve higher growth rate rather than its political ... Yes Modi in power as PM... thats the only way... Economical reform with strong Leader can only increase the moral of the Economy...

Frankly speaking even the recent reforms by MMS cant do any good as the confidence of investor in India is lost it can only eventually built up with a political change ... Even Modiji cant increase the growth rate in a 1-2 year time line... it would take him atleast 4-5 years to improve the situation...

corruption is not a isolated till central government ... its deep rooted in every state let that be Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan ,Andrapradesh, UP,J&K,Assam, Delhi almost in all most all non BJP states ... one Gujarat cant change India...

Leader with highly innovating thinking, foresightedness & high international standing as a investor supportive person can only change things the way it needs to be ... leader who has good relationship with Asian Nation like China,Japan,Asean is needed rather then a western puppet ... There is no Leader other than MODIJI who fits in such a tight spot...

Today the Economic growth of India solely depends today in the Hands of Indian voters ... So Vote for Modi be the Change should be slongan

 

[Nair saab]

Future Growth of Indian Economy depends upon proper Resource Management rather then increase in FDI...

For E.g Schemes like NAREGA is proving to be a total waste of government money... NAREGA scheme can be made more efficient by using the money given for rural employment just for infrastructure development of rural areas only...

Non-productive use of Money like Food security bill etc should be held back... Indian people r not Beggers who depend solely on government funds for food... dont make ur people a liability on state... rather then use them as a asset for Development of the country...

 

[Contrarian]

I saw this news a few days ago on FT. It came out just about the same time as India's recent reforms.

So I'm quite sure they haven't taken the recent reforms into account, since they didn't have enough time to factor it in.

The reforms would almost certainly boost the growth rate upwards rather than downwards.

They would boost business sentiment ofcourse, but whether that translates into action and spending on ground remains to be seen.

The actual and true set of structural reforms is not being undertaken by the government. They are putting band-aids in the name of reforms.

For example, the biggest need of labour reforms is not happening. Neither are they deregulating diesel(they raise prices only when it becomes unsustainable).
Goods and Services Tax regime is not being implemented. Neither is Direct Tax Code.

These major factors will hold the economy back.

 

[Tshering22]

I don't think India's growth will fall to 4.9%. That seems highly unlikely.

Maybe around 6% in the next few quarters.

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Meanwhile, China's natural growth rate for the next decade... should be around 7.5%, the same as our official growth target.

We've already had three whole decades of double-digit growth, so a slowdown is absolutely necessary for long-term sustainability of our economy.

Then it is about time you and we look forward to insulate our economies.

I was just wondering what's with IMF and other rating agencies always predicting gloom and doom.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Instead of posting so many China-bashing threads...

... Indians should ask themselves how 4.9% growth = India Superpower.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Instead of these Indians posting so many China-bashing threads...

... Indians should ask themselves how 4.9% growth = India Superpower.

Why should Indian members concern themselves with retarded logic from a Chinese member?

 

[AbuMuslim]

Why should Indian members concern themselves with retarded logic from a Chinese member?

Because that sort of growth rate is only acceptable in a developed economy, not one which is making the transition to a developed economy.

A growth rate that low for an economy like yours heralds major underlying structural problems.

 

[kawaraj]

4.9 percent will only be mission impossible.

3.X percent is prediction of UK economists per BBC. We have a lot of thread discussion running on that topic.