AndrewJin
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India lacks those journalists.
U people really need more.
Keeping a low file is very important to maintain a peaceful economic environment.
If China’s pain is India’s gain, won’t China’s gain be India’s pain?
- Thread starter Raphael
- Start date
U people really need more.
Keeping a low file is very important to maintain a peaceful economic environment.
AndrewJin
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First of all, surpassing GDP per capita of Sub-Sahara Africa!
Then talk about surpass Shanghai in 2012, blah blah blah.
The dangers in Delhi’s dream of overtaking China
David Pilling
India’s overly inflated statistics are breeding a false sense of security
Taj Mahal©iStock
Shining India is back. At least that’s what many hyperbolic Indians would have you believe. With China’s economy slowing and its markets and policymaking credentials upended, India is plausibly poised to take over as the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Many Indians, deploying language that evokes the “India Shining” campaign used when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party was last in power a decade ago, see more than a glimmer of opportunity in China’s misfortunes.
Arun Jaitley, finance minister, said in an interview with the BBC: “An economy which can grow at 8 to 9 per cent like India certainly has viable shoulders to provide support to the global economy.” Adi Godrej, head of the eponymous consumer goods group, said it was a fine time for India to “shine”. In one of the strongest “move-over-China” remarks, Jayant Sinha, minister of state for finance, said Delhi was ready to “take the baton of global growth” from Beijing. He chirpily told an audience in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and most benighted states: “In coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter.”
On the face of it, there is room for optimism. As China seeks to wean itself off supercharged investment, its economy will inevitably slow. Officially, growth will glide down to 7 per cent this year. More likely, it could quickly head towards 5 per cent or below. India, meanwhile, is expected to expand at 7.7 per cent.
Unlike many other emerging economies, including fellow Brics nations Brazil, Russia and South Africa, India has not been buoyed by exports of high-priced commodities. That means it will not be dragged down by the Chinese-
induced commodities slump. Far from it. India, the world’s third-biggest petroleum importer , benefits greatly from weak oil prices, which improve its current account position and ease inflationary pressures. Nor is India a big exporter of manufactured goods. Even if global demand is weak, its economy is relatively insulated, with 57 per cent of gross domestic product coming from household consumption.
Yet the idea that India is poised to become the global economy’s main event is flawed to say the least. If it induces complacency, it is positively dangerous. Hopes that India can replace China as the engine of global growth are wide of the mark. In nominal terms — the most appropriate measure when judging an economy’s global impact — India’s output is one-fifth that of China’s. India makes up a mere 2.5 per cent of global GDP against a hefty 13.5 per cent for China. If China grew at 5 per cent annually, it would add an Indian-sized economy to its already hefty output in less than four years. Saying India can match this is like saying a mouse can pull a tractor.
"The idea that India will effortlessly float above Chinese growth levels is hopelessly smug" Tweet this quote
On balance, people have read too much into China’s market spasms. Certainly, botched attempts to prop up the stock market and to move to a more flexible exchange rate have shaken confidence in the perceived infallibility of Chinese policymaking. Certainly, too, recent turmoil is symptomatic of a deeper malaise in the Chinese economy as it goes through the pain of shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth. For China, the days of relatively easy catch-up have ended. Yet to write China off is badly misguided. It has the momentum of 30 years’ extraordinary expansion behind it.
The idea that India will effortlessly float above Chinese growth levels is hopelessly smug. India’s statistics are as dubious as those of China. People forget that only last February, India changed the way it calculated GDP, adding more than 2 percentage points to its headline growth rate. On the old measure, India is still limping along at a far from impressive 5 per cent.
Inflated growth breeds a false sense of security. That may help explain why Mr Modi’s government has been so slow to pass much-trumpeted reforms. In this session of parliament, almost nothing has been done. The prime minister has been unable to enact a goods and services tax, which economists agree would make it easier to do business across a diverse set of states. Faced with opposition from farmers, he has all but abandoned land reform, which would have made it simpler to build factories, roads and power plants. Doing business in India continues to be anything but easy.
While the country is relatively isolated from the world economy, that is partly because it does not make much that others deem worth buying. For a country that wants to be the manufacturing hub to replace China, that seems more like a weakness than a strength.
None of these problems will disappear because rather dubious statistics say India is growing faster than China. Indian officials would do well to stop gloating — and start enacting some meaningful change.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/933ca4ba-5620-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#axzz3lP38O41Z
David Pilling
India’s overly inflated statistics are breeding a false sense of security
Taj Mahal©iStock
Shining India is back. At least that’s what many hyperbolic Indians would have you believe. With China’s economy slowing and its markets and policymaking credentials upended, India is plausibly poised to take over as the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Many Indians, deploying language that evokes the “India Shining” campaign used when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party was last in power a decade ago, see more than a glimmer of opportunity in China’s misfortunes.
Arun Jaitley, finance minister, said in an interview with the BBC: “An economy which can grow at 8 to 9 per cent like India certainly has viable shoulders to provide support to the global economy.” Adi Godrej, head of the eponymous consumer goods group, said it was a fine time for India to “shine”. In one of the strongest “move-over-China” remarks, Jayant Sinha, minister of state for finance, said Delhi was ready to “take the baton of global growth” from Beijing. He chirpily told an audience in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and most benighted states: “In coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter.”
On the face of it, there is room for optimism. As China seeks to wean itself off supercharged investment, its economy will inevitably slow. Officially, growth will glide down to 7 per cent this year. More likely, it could quickly head towards 5 per cent or below. India, meanwhile, is expected to expand at 7.7 per cent.
Unlike many other emerging economies, including fellow Brics nations Brazil, Russia and South Africa, India has not been buoyed by exports of high-priced commodities. That means it will not be dragged down by the Chinese-
induced commodities slump. Far from it. India, the world’s third-biggest petroleum importer , benefits greatly from weak oil prices, which improve its current account position and ease inflationary pressures. Nor is India a big exporter of manufactured goods. Even if global demand is weak, its economy is relatively insulated, with 57 per cent of gross domestic product coming from household consumption.
Yet the idea that India is poised to become the global economy’s main event is flawed to say the least. If it induces complacency, it is positively dangerous. Hopes that India can replace China as the engine of global growth are wide of the mark. In nominal terms — the most appropriate measure when judging an economy’s global impact — India’s output is one-fifth that of China’s. India makes up a mere 2.5 per cent of global GDP against a hefty 13.5 per cent for China. If China grew at 5 per cent annually, it would add an Indian-sized economy to its already hefty output in less than four years. Saying India can match this is like saying a mouse can pull a tractor.
"The idea that India will effortlessly float above Chinese growth levels is hopelessly smug" Tweet this quote
On balance, people have read too much into China’s market spasms. Certainly, botched attempts to prop up the stock market and to move to a more flexible exchange rate have shaken confidence in the perceived infallibility of Chinese policymaking. Certainly, too, recent turmoil is symptomatic of a deeper malaise in the Chinese economy as it goes through the pain of shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth. For China, the days of relatively easy catch-up have ended. Yet to write China off is badly misguided. It has the momentum of 30 years’ extraordinary expansion behind it.
The idea that India will effortlessly float above Chinese growth levels is hopelessly smug. India’s statistics are as dubious as those of China. People forget that only last February, India changed the way it calculated GDP, adding more than 2 percentage points to its headline growth rate. On the old measure, India is still limping along at a far from impressive 5 per cent.
Inflated growth breeds a false sense of security. That may help explain why Mr Modi’s government has been so slow to pass much-trumpeted reforms. In this session of parliament, almost nothing has been done. The prime minister has been unable to enact a goods and services tax, which economists agree would make it easier to do business across a diverse set of states. Faced with opposition from farmers, he has all but abandoned land reform, which would have made it simpler to build factories, roads and power plants. Doing business in India continues to be anything but easy.
While the country is relatively isolated from the world economy, that is partly because it does not make much that others deem worth buying. For a country that wants to be the manufacturing hub to replace China, that seems more like a weakness than a strength.
None of these problems will disappear because rather dubious statistics say India is growing faster than China. Indian officials would do well to stop gloating — and start enacting some meaningful change.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/933ca4ba-5620-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#axzz3lP38O41Z
Bussard Ramjet
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While I largely agree with these articles, I find it amusing that Chinese members here liberally use western media articles that favor them, but for rest everything, proclaim a conspiracy to defame China and put it back.
Srinivas
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exactly !!
Azizam
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LOL its the other around. India is behind China in supply chain. China while moving upwards in the supply chain can invest in india, provide jobs and manufacture for a lower price by exploiting cheap labour. But India needs to make sure it sorts out bureaucracy, improve educational system and develop infrastructure. But first of all India needs to realise the empty words from mody who seems like another humpty dumpty who can give beautiful speeches but not capable of carrying out the actions.
Srinivas
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Take the example of USA and China and apply it to India and China.
India is the ripe market for China compared to any other countries, also India can supply goods for China, help them to convert into consumption driven economy.
There are many advantages like connectivity, etc...etc...,
regarding reforms in India ... India is moving in right direction and people can see the improvement.
In India's point of view "China is an opportunity to grow", In China's point of view "India is an opportunity to reduce its economic issues".
Regarding China venturing into ASEAN and Africa etc...etc.., they cannot offer what India offers to China, similarly in the longterm China will become a market for India.
If these two countries co operate in trade and commerce, there will be stability in Asia.
Stability in Asia is another topic though.
Azizam
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US used China to take advantage of its cheap labour to manufacture for a cheap price. It benefited both the US and China. Same case in this situation. China can invest in India, exploit its cheap labour to outsource manufacturing for cost reductoon and those goods then can be sent back to Chinese market. So those products will still be owned by the Chinese not Indians, therefore can't be called as "indian products"
india is not a good market for China. Yes, India's population is very high but its income level is very low. That doesn't make India a very attractive market for China.
AndrewJin
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Be modest, compared to any other countries?
@Bussard Ramjet I feel sorry for you.
Mainland China's top 10 trade partners
India can supply goods for China, help them to convert into consumption driven economy?
Hello! U mean u can export to China raw materials?
And u mean a 2 trillion economy help a 10 trillion economy become consumption-driven?
Can u tell me how many goods Indian consumed in 2014?
2014
August of 2015
@Bussard Ramjet Seriously, you people just...Can they just spend a little time searching for some figures and then brag?
Guys u really need to see the interesting "dialogue" here, some 100 trillion confidence here.
India is the ripe market for China compared to any other countries, also India can supply goods for China, help them to convert into consumption driven economy.
@Yizhi @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @rugering @Stranagor @cirr @Keel @Jlaw @Place Of Space @FairAndUnbiased @zeronet @Raphael @sweetgrape @Edison Chen @Chinese Bamboo @Chinese-Dragon @cnleio @+4vsgorillas-Apebane @onebyone @yusheng @Kyle Sun @dy1022 @Beast @YoucanYouup @terranMarine @ahojunk @kuge @Arryn @Economic superpower @Beidou2020 @cirr @JSCh @jkroo @Pangu @ChineseTiger1986 @powastick et al
Place Of Space
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Be modest, compared to any other countries?
@Bussard Ramjet I feel sorry for you.
Mainland China's top 10 trade partners
View attachment 257030
India can supply goods for China, help them to convert into consumption driven economy?
Hello! U mean u can export to China raw materials?
And u mean a 2 trillion economy help a 10 trillion economy become consumption-driven?
Can u tell me how many goods Indian consumed in 2014?
2014
August of 2015
@Bussard Ramjet Seriously, you people just...Can they just spend a little time searching for some figures and then brag?
Guys u really need to see the interesting "dialogue" here, some 100 trillion confidence here.
India is the ripe market for China compared to any other countries, also India can supply goods for China, help them to convert into consumption driven economy.
@Yizhi @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @rugering @Stranagor @cirr @Keel @Jlaw @Place Of Space @FairAndUnbiased @zeronet @Raphael @sweetgrape @Edison Chen @Chinese Bamboo @Chinese-Dragon @cnleio @+4vsgorillas-Apebane @onebyone @yusheng @Kyle Sun @dy1022 @Beast @YoucanYouup @terranMarine @ahojunk @kuge @Arryn @Economic superpower @Beidou2020 @cirr @JSCh @jkroo @Pangu @ChineseTiger1986 @powastick et al
Incredible India, the "incredible" sometimes means surprised, sometimes means unintelligible.
Okay, let's cheers this cup of Ganges water.
Nan Yang
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The problem is India. India needs to fix it own problems first. Even ASEAN is complaining that India is not opening up fast enough.
AndrewJin
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ASEAN($480billion) is China's third largest trade partner after EU and US.
Malaysia alone is among China's top10 trade partners.
Cheers!Incredible India, the "incredible" sometimes means surprised, sometimes means unintelligible.
Okay, let's cheers this cup of Ganges water.
Place Of Space
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Tiger Genie
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What is the big point being made here, other than the apparent inheritance of Modi-induced-anxiety from Pakistanis by some Chinese members here?
If and when there is any competition, yeah if China misses a deal and India gets it, or the vice versa, it is mutual gain and pain. But India and China only rarely compete for the same deal for obvious reasons: China's manufacturing expertise is far ahead and India's service sector capabilities are far ahead.
India needs manufacturing a lot more than China needs services.
China's problems are one of human development, transparency, corruption and risk management. India's problems are poverty and corruption.
If and when there is any competition, yeah if China misses a deal and India gets it, or the vice versa, it is mutual gain and pain. But India and China only rarely compete for the same deal for obvious reasons: China's manufacturing expertise is far ahead and India's service sector capabilities are far ahead.
India needs manufacturing a lot more than China needs services.
China's problems are one of human development, transparency, corruption and risk management. India's problems are poverty and corruption.
powastick
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India service sector is no where close to China. Its at Brazil level.
I'll be honest with you, China HDI has overtaken Malaysia.
