LONG-TERM FALLOUT
Radioactive Fallout
A surface explosion will produce
much more early fallout than a
similarly sized air burst where
the fireball never touches the
ground. This is because a surface
explosion produces radioactive
particles from the ground as well
as from the weapon. The early
fallout will drift back to earth on
the prevailing wind, creating an
elliptical pattern stretching from
ground zero out into Long
Island. Because the wind will be
relatively light, the fallout will be
highly concentrated in the area
of Manhattan just to the east of
the blast. Predicting levels of
radiation is difficult and depends
on many factors like bomb size,
design, the ground surface and
soil type.
Fallout Effects
Dose-rem Effects
5-20 Possible late effects; possible
chromosomal damage.
20-100 Temporary reduction in white
blood cells.
100-200 Mild radiation sickness within a
few hours: vomiting, diarrhea,
fatigue; reduction in resistance
to infection.
200-300 Serious radiation sickness effects
as in 100-200 rem and
hemorrhage; exposure is a Lethal
Dose to 10-35% of the
population after 30 days (LD
10-35/30).
300-400 Serious radiation sickness; also
marrow and intestine
destruction; LD 50-70/30.
400-1000 Acute illness, early death; LD
60-95/30.
1000-5000 Acute illness, early death in days;
LD 100/10.
New York City Example:
Recovery
In this simulated attack we have
assumed that New York is the
only city attacked and that there
is nothing to prevent state and
federal agencies from
concentrating their resources on
bringing aid to the devastated
area. Though the cleanup and
decontamination of the most
severely damaged and
radioactive areas would take
years, much immediate aid could
be obtained from the outside.
Access
Manhattan is an island connected
to the rest of New York and New
Jersey by tunnels and bridges.
Many of these access points will
be affected to some degree by
the blast. The Lincoln and Queens
Midtown Tunnels are both in the
10 psi. ring and would likely be
damaged or blocked by debris.
The Queensboro Bridge is in the
5 psi. ring and would likely be
damaged. The remaining tunnels
and bridges all fall in the 2 or 1
psi. rings and might receive
some light damage but would
likely be usable. The rescue effort
from outside would be further
hampered by people trying to
flee the area. In general, help
from the outside would be slow
in coming.
Medical Effects
With almost 900,000 people
injured to various degrees, the
task of caring for the injured will
be beyond the ability of the
medical system to respond. All
but one of Manhattan's large
hospitals lie inside the 5 psi. ring
and would be completely
destroyed. There aren't enough
empty hospital beds in all of New
York and New Jersey for even the
most critically injured. The 1 psi.
ring alone has an estimated
30,000 burn victims that will
need specialized care. The entire
country has a total of 3000 beds
in burn centers. In the days to
follow it is likely that many of the
injured will die from lack of any
medical care.
Utilities
Most of Manhattan will be
without utilities (electricity, gas,
water, sewage). Out to the edge
of the 2 psi. ring, damaged
buildings and the resulting
debris will make repairs very
difficult, if not impossible, for
several weeks. It is likely that the
stress to the power system will
temporarily knock out power to
an area much larger than that
directly affected by the blast.
Rescue and Recovery
Transportation of the injured
and the ability to bring in the
necessary supplies, people and
equipment will be dependent on
the condition of the tunnels and
bridges that connect Manhattan
to New York and New Jersey. As
discussed in Access, these points
will be blocked or damaged to
varying degrees, except at the far
north and south tips of the
island. The main train station lies
in the 10 psi. ring and would be
completely destroyed. Once
access is established then true
rescue work can begin.
It is likely that many tens of
thousands of people would
become homeless. Creation of
temporary shelter would be
among the first recovery tasks
after all the trapped and injured
had been found and cared for.
True recovery for New York
would take many years. Some
areas would remain dangerously
radioactive and would have to be
cleaned up at tremendous cost
or be abandoned for many years
to come. Even without the
radioactivity it is likely that New
York City would never fully
recover to its present status as
one of the country's leading
financial and cultural centers.
Distance from
ground zero (mi.) Population Fatalities Injuries Uninjured
0 - 0.4 75,000 75,000 0 0
0.4 - 1.0 400,000 300,000 100,000 0
1.0 - 1.5 500,000 220,000 220,000 60,000
1.5 - 2.5 1,500,000 235,000 525,000 740,000
2.5 - 4.0 500,000 0 30,000 470,000
Totals 2,975,000 830,000 875,000 1,270,000
