How much pro-Russian separatist sentiment in South East Ukraine?

[Homo Sapiens]

Hallo guys,I have studied the current Ukrainian crisis for few days and I am sharing some information regarding the probability of south-east Ukraine separating from Ukraine and joining Russia.Many pro Russian member here have somewhat naive simplistic assumption that it is only a matter of time that the inhabitant of south east Ukraine will rise up against Ukrainian authority and join Russia enthusiastically.Considering about how much debate generating this issue in this forum I am presenting some information here.

Below is Ukraine's Oblast(Province) map.

Below is traditional regional divisional map.

Below is ethnic group in whole Ukraine and Crimea region.Ethnic Russian constituted only 17.3% of Ukrainian population as a whole in 2001.Now after Crimea secession and flight of 1 million pro Russian into Russia make them even smaller minority now.Ethnic Russian may be 10-12% of the population in Ukraine now.

Below is ethnic Ukrainian population by Oblasts (province). Note that even in Donetsk and Luhansk oblast in extreme eastern Ukraine,ethnic Ukrainian are majority and all other region they constitute 70-98 percent of the population.Only in Crimea and Sevastopol they were minority.

Below is ethnic russian population by oblast. Note that even in Donetsk and Luhansk region Ethnic Russian constituted only 38-39 percent of population in 2001.In other south eastern region they make less then 25% of population and western and central Ukraine less then 10 percent.Only in Crimea they were majority.

Below is Ukrainian language as a native language by region.Except Donetsk, Luhansk and Odesa region,all other area are majority Ukrainian speaker including south east.

Below is Russian language as a native language by region(Oblast). Note that except Donetsk and Luhansk Russian speaker are minority in all other region,but significant minority of population in south eastern Ukraine consider Russian to be the native language.

Below is language distribution map by city,town,village level. In south east Ukraine russian speaking population are concentrated in big cities,rural area are mostly Ukrainian speaker.Thats why russian speaking area are is so few and fragmented. Exception was only Crimea.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Below is ethnic composition map at district (Rayon) level.Very few districts are ethnic Russian majority in south east.

Ukrainian language in school.Only in Donetsk and Luhansk region Russian language schools are in majority.In all other region Ukrainian language instruction is absolute in school.That means future generation will be increasingly Ukrainian speaker.

Some opinion poll

Here clear majority including Russian speaker want to maintain Ukrainian integrity.Only 18% in Eastern Ukraine want to secede.

Below is support for region to secede.Overwhelming majority in East reject secession.

What Ukrainian regard their homeland?

There is a reason that except Donetsk and Luhansk oblast nowhere pro-Russian separatist could manage an uprising against Kiev government.They tried in Kharkiv oblast but were quickly suppressed. Other region in south east didn't even experienced mass protest by Pro-Russian.Small protest were quickly over whelmed by much bigger Pro-Ukrainian protest.

Currently Pro-Russian rebel control about 30 percent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Without direct invasion of Russia there is no possibility to realize the Novorossiya project.Ukrainian army is becoming stronger day by day and initial disarray and chaos in Ukraine are largely subsides.So there is no opportunistic uprising is possible.Ethnic Russian in Ukraine already paid a heavy price for the war,more than 1 million are refugee,thousands are killed in battle.Ethnic Russian in other part of Ukraine have no stomach to embrace the same.

 

[vostok]

Conflict in Ukraine, it is not a conflict between Russian and Ukrainians, or between Ukrainian-speaking and Russian-speaking. It is a conflict between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces. Consequently, the numbers of the real support of pro-Russian forces need to find not at false linguistic or ethnic maps (actually in Ukraine more Russian-speaking citizens than Ukrainian-speaking) - but on maps of elections. I mean a real elections, not coup.

allowing for the fact that Yanukovych was considered more neutral than pro-Russian, so that the figures of support of Russia is actually higher.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Conflict in Ukraine, it is not a conflict between Russian and Ukrainians, or between Ukrainian-speaking and Russian-speaking. It is a conflict between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces. Consequently, the numbers of the real support of pro-Russian forces need to find not at false linguistic or ethnic maps (actually in Ukraine more Russian-speaking citizens than Ukrainian-speaking) - but on maps of elections. I mean a real elections, not coup.
View attachment 213438
allowing for the fact that Yanukovych was considered more neutral than pro-Russian, so that the figures of support of Russia is actually higher.

But supporting Yanukovich and supporting secession are not the same.Many Ukrainian who speak Russian language are loyal citizen even some ethnic Russian.

 

[vostok]

But supporting Yanukovich and supporting secession are not the same.Many Ukrainian who speak Russian language are loyal citizen even some ethnic Russian.

The question is different: supporting pro-Nazi (pro-Western) illegal regime or support of pro-Russian forces. Even at the cost of independence from Ukraine, because in the south and east of Ukraine people associate themselves with Russia and the Soviet Union, rather than with Ukraine or Europe.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Here is the map of vote received by President Petro Poroshenko in 2014 election.Even in South east he receive 33-48 percent of votes.

 

[vostok]

Here is the map of vote received by President Petro Poroshenko in 2014 election.Even in South east he receive 33-48 percent of votes.

Poroshenko? He is appointed president. There was not a single opposition candidate at the "elections". This is 100% coup d'etat, hiding behind democracy.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Poroshenko? He is appointed president. There was not a single opposition candidate at the "elections". This is 100% coup d'etat, hiding behind democracy.

There were opposition cadidates in 2014 election.They are called Opposition Block, a pro-Russian party mainly active in south east.Yanukovich's Regional party and other pro-Russian faction combined to form it.

Opposition Bloc - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here their performance in the election of 2014.

 

[vostok]

There were opposition cadidates in 2014 election.They are called Opposition Block, a pro-Russian party mainly active in south east.Yanukovich's Regional party and other pro-Russian faction combined to form it.

Opposition Bloc - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here their performance in the election of 2014.

On the "elections" of the President were two opposition candidates - Tsarev and Symonenko. Both junta using blackmail, threats, violence forced to withdraw from elections. So Poroshenko chose itself (on the very fact, it was simply appointed by Americans).
If you understood the question, then realized that in Ukraine has never been pro-Russian political forces. There were people who used pro-Russian rhetoric before the elections, and after the victory immidietly recoloured. So it was with Kuchma and Yanukovych - that is, with both Ukrainian actually elected presidents.
That is really pro-Russian support by citizens in the South and East of former Ukraine has always been much higher than a vote results for those politicians who use pro-Russian rhetoric.
All the "elections" that took place after the coup is illegal apriori. Only legal will of the people is the referendums in Crimea and the Donbass. They showed that Russia's support in these regions - 90-100%. In other regions of the south and east of the former Ukraine this figure is lower, but also it is majority of citizens.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

On the "elections" of the President were two opposition candidates - Tsarev and Symonenko. Both junta using blackmail, threats, violence forced to withdraw from elections. So Poroshenko chose itself (on the very fact, it was simply appointed by Americans).
If you understood the question, then realized that in Ukraine has never been pro-Russian political forces. There were people who used pro-Russian rhetoric before the elections, and after the victory immidietly recoloured. So it was with Kuchma and Yanukovych - that is, with both Ukrainian actually elected presidents.
That is really pro-Russian support by citizens in the South and East of former Ukraine has always been much higher than a vote results for those politicians who use pro-Russian rhetoric.
All the "elections" that took place after the coup is illegal apriori. Only legal will of the people is the referendums in Crimea and the Donbass. They showed that Russia's support in these regions - 90-100%. In other regions of the south and east of the former Ukraine this figure is lower, but also it is majority of citizens.

Is there any opinion poll conducted in south east which showed people are more willing to be part of Russia rather than Ukraine? If not then all are individual guesswork. Being Pro-Russian and wanting to be within Russia are two different thing.Many people there may regard Russia in high esteem and feel positive about Russian,but that doesn't translate they want to secede from Ukraine.If that were the case then we would have seen similar insurgency all over the south eastern region like that one in donbass.But the pro russian no where succeeded other than Donetsk and Lugansk.It only translate majority there don't want the separation. International Poll also confirm this.

 

[vostok]

Is there any opinion poll conducted in south east which showed people are more willing to be part of Russia rather than Ukraine? If not then all are individual guesswork. Being Pro-Russian and wanting to be within Russia are two different thing.Many people there may regard Russia in high esteem and feel positive about Russian,but that doesn't translate they want to secede from Ukraine.If that were the case then we would have seen similar insurgency all over the south eastern region like that one in donbass.But the pro russian no where succeeded other than Donetsk and Lugansk.It only translate majority there don't want the separation. International Poll also confirm this.

The fact that at the moment only separated regions are Donbass and Crimea - does not mean that the inhabitants of other regions do not want to separate. Ukraine after coup rapidly falling into an economic abyss. Despite 24/7 Russophobe propaganda of Ukrainian media, the number of those wishing to seeced from the Ukraine will grow.
We know the results of the referendums in the Crimea and the Donbas and we know that before the coup, the mood of people around the south-eastern Ukraine was approximately the same.
Knowing the history of the region of New Russia, and bearing in mind that these lands became part of an independent Ukrainian state only in 1991, would be absolutely correct to assume that the majority of residents at any time prefer to be a part of Russia, not Ukraine.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

On the "elections" of the President were two opposition candidates - Tsarev and Symonenko. Both junta using blackmail, threats, violence forced to withdraw from elections. So Poroshenko chose itself (on the very fact, it was simply appointed by Americans).
If you understood the question, then realized that in Ukraine has never been pro-Russian political forces. There were people who used pro-Russian rhetoric before the elections, and after the victory immidietly recoloured. So it was with Kuchma and Yanukovych - that is, with both Ukrainian actually elected presidents.
That is really pro-Russian support by citizens in the South and East of former Ukraine has always been much higher than a vote results for those politicians who use pro-Russian rhetoric.
All the "elections" that took place after the coup is illegal apriori. Only legal will of the people is the referendums in Crimea and the Donbass. They showed that Russia's support in these regions - 90-100%. In other regions of the south and east of the former Ukraine this figure is lower, but also it is majority of citizens.

Regarding intimidation in election Opposition block cheaf Yuriy Boyko competed as a presidential candidate and now member of Parliament.There were more then three thousands international observer in Ukrainian election unlike referendum in Crimea and donbass.So if there were large scale intimidation and irregularity then that election would have condemned across the world,specially Russia would be beating the drum.

The fact that at the moment only separated regions are Donbass and Crimea - does not mean that the inhabitants of other regions do not want to separate. Ukraine after coup rapidly falling into an economic abyss. Despite 24/7 Russophobe propaganda of Ukrainian media, the number of those wishing to seeced from the Ukraine will grow.
We know the results of the referendums in the Crimea and the Donbas and we know that before the coup, the mood of people around the south-eastern Ukraine was approximately the same.
Knowing the history of the region of New Russia, and bearing in mind that these lands became part of an independent Ukrainian state only in 1991, would be absolutely correct to assume that the majority of residents at any time prefer to be a part of Russia, not Ukraine.

As I said all is your guess work.Study doesn't support it.Plus why would the majority ethnic Ukrainian in south east want to secede from Ukraine?

 

[vostok]

Regarding intimidation in election Opposition block cheaf Yuriy Boyko competed as a presidential candidate and now member of Parliament.There were more then three thousands international observer in Ukrainian election unlike referendum in Crimea and donbass.So if there were large scale intimidation and irregularity then that election were condemned across the world,specially Russia would be beating the drum.

Honestly, I do not know who is Yuriy Boyko and never in my life heard of him. Both candidates who have a chance of success - Tsarev and Symonenko, were forcibly ejected from presidential race.
The struggle for freedom and independence of New Russia is just beginning. Bangladesh also did not immediately became independent, is not it?
Russia took almost a hundred and fifty years to free South-Western lands from Polish occupation. And that's not counting Galicia, which was freed only in 1939.
We live in a period of geopolitical changes. So hope of residents of Novorossia gain independence or to reunite with Russia - has the right to exist.

 

[flamer84]

Regarding intimidation in election Opposition block cheaf Yuriy Boyko competed as a presidential candidate and now member of Parliament.There were more then three thousands international observer in Ukrainian election unlike referendum in Crimea and donbass.So if there were large scale intimidation and irregularity then that election would have condemned across the world,specially Russia would be beating the drum.


As I said all is your guess work.Study doesn't support it.Plus why would the majority ethnic Ukrainian in south east want to secede from Ukraine?

Yep,pro Russians clearly lost the elections and than invaded.

Reminds me of elections in Romania in 1947.The communists got 20% of the vote but backed by the present Russian Army proclaimed 90 %,jailed the opposition and that was that.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Honestly, I do not know who is Yuriy Boyko and never in my life heard of him. Both candidates who have a chance of success - Tsarev and Symonenko, were forcibly ejected from presidential race.
The struggle for freedom and independence of New Russia is just beginning. Bangladesh also did not immediately became independent, is not it?
Russia took almost a hundred and fifty years to free South-Western lands from Polish occupation. And that's not counting Galicia, which was freed only in 1939.
We live in a period of geopolitical changes. So hope of residents of Novorossia gain independence or to reunite with Russia - has the right to exist.

If Yuriy Boyko is no one and you don't know about him then how come he became Opposition block Chief?He was former vice prime minister of Ukraine and current opposition leader.
Yuriy Boyko - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In previous time there were imperial chess game concerning territorial acquisition with no nationalistic sentiment among the population which is currenly very outdated.So histoty of Russian imperial conquest is not relevant to the 21st century reality.Modern nation state take their territorial integrity very seriously and no large scale forceful boundary change is possible without inviting large scale war.Nazi Germany tried that in during ww2 and all we know the fate of them.