"Hindu rate of growth"

[xhw1986]

It also notes that GDP is unlikely to have increased during the first quarter of the current fiscal.

The economy is facing the spectre of slipping to Hindu rate of growth of the pre-liberalisation era and may fall to an abysmal 3.5-4 per cent growth zone if the weak growth trend lasts for four-five quarters more, warns a Morgan Stanley report.

"The recent monetary tightening and uncertain global capital market environment could mean growth stays low for at least two more quarters. A weak growth trend lasting for four-five quarters would increase the risk of a vicious cycle building, whereby the economy becomes vulnerable and the risk increases of GDP growth sliding to 3.5-4 per cent," a report penned by Morgan Stanley Asia chief economist Chetan Ahya has warned.

It also notes that GDP, which was below 5 per cent during periods ending December 2012 and March 2013, is unlikely to have increased during the first quarter of the current fiscal.

According to Ahya, if the growth slows down further, it will result in sharp rise in non-performing assets of banks leading to risk aversion in the banking sector, increase in challenges relating to fiscal deficit management with weaker revenues and reduced confidence of foreign investors, exacerbating the external funding risks further.

Stressing on the need to overcome from this downward spiral, the report called for accelerated pace of policy reforms.

"A sustainable solution would be to accelerate implementation of structural reforms that in turn help to correct the imbalances in the economy and put it back on a positive productivity dynamic. The pace at which these external developments have unfolded has only increased the urgency for an accelerated pace of policy reforms," notes Ahya.

Giving possible scenarios in case of the rupee plunge continues, the report says the government is likely to augment capital inflows in some of dollar debt but warns that such steps may not make major difference unless the global environment improves.
"In our view, in the near-term, as US real rates and the US dollar keep rising, the country will have little choice to ensure higher real rates and sacrifice growth," the report concludes.

Morgan Stanley warns of Hindu rate of growth - Indian Express

 

[East Asia United]

I've been saying this for months now.

India is not slowing down.. she is on the verge of collapse.

Gordon Chang, that wannabe White mixed-race douche, should have focused on the collapse of India rather than China.

 

[Srinivas]

A BIG LOL at these trolls who are predicting the controlled drop of rupee as a economic collapse

Moody's reiterates stable outlook on India's Baa3 sovereign rating

MUMBAI: Moody's on Monday reiterated its stable outlook on India's Baa3 sovereign rating, Bloomberg cited analyst AtsiSheth.

India's rating is supported by low levels of overseas government debt and adequate reserves for balance of payments needs in the near term, Sheth said in an email to Bloomberg. "The rating is also supported by domestic savings rate," it added.

India's sovereign rating is at the lowest investment grade level. Moody's said that it will continue to ***** the country's foreign exchange reserves adequacy. "India has adequate reserves for near-term BoP payments," it said.

According to Moody's, flows are unlikely to accelerate unless growth outlook improves. "Fiscal policy is the weakest aspect of Indian economy," it said.

Earlier in the day, in an interview with ET Now, Sheth said, "India has had certain amount of capital controls before and will likely continue to have capital controls into the future. Indian authorities have been very clear that capital account liberalisation is something they will address with caution."

"In our view, India has always had capital controls. The measures announced recently were indeed adjustments in the amounts of controls. So depending on what your own view is, you can interpret it as new capital controls or an adjustment of capital controls. But the fact is that there were capital controls before, there will be capital controls now and the amount of control is what is being adjusted now," she added.

"In my view, what is affecting the attractiveness of the country as an investment destination are two factors. One is the growth outlook that we are seeing coming in and the second factor is the policy environment," Sheth said.

"We saw over the last year a flurry of announcements which have been seen positively by some because they open the doors to investment in certain sectors and they liberalise regulation in certain other sectors. But the net result of all those announcements has still not reflected in the growth. There is still uncertainty as to what next will come from the government that will really propel an improvement in the investment outlook."

"Until there is some clarity that the government is going to take measures that will actually lead to private investors making direct investments, the attractiveness of India as an investment destination will remain subdued," she added.

Earlier today, The rupee fell past 63 per dollar to a record low on sustained dollar demand from state-run and foreign banks.

The rupee closed at 63.13 to a dollar, down 2.4 per cent on the day. The currency closed trading on Friday at 61.65/66 (not 61.55/56).

Some dealers are expecting further dollar selling by the RBI as well as other measures to prop up a currency that is down 10.8 per cent in 2013, making it the worst performer in emerging Asia.

The rupee's tumble has fuelled expectations of more action from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which last week curbed outflows from companies and individuals, roiling stock and bond markets on Friday. Policymakers later stepped in to assuage nerves that the government was not looking at curbing foreign money outflows.

Moody's reiterates stable outlook on India's Baa3 sovereign rating - The Economic Times

India will do very good in this decade economically, For our economy to become strong India need to reduce trade deficit. For this to occur imports should be reduced.

A falling rupee will make these cheap imports costly, people prefer local products.

Initially there will be some problems in short term but Indian manufacturing base will benefit and India will capture Chinese and West markets.

India economy is in going through some kind of change.

India has reserves which are sufficient for 30 months of imports. No need to panic, "No pain No gain"

 

[Srinivas]

US keen on India's inclusion in the Trans Pacific Partnership

KOLKATA: The US is keen on India's inclusion in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Speaking at an interactive session organized by the Indian Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, August 20, Ernest Bower, senior advisor, Sumitro Chair for South East Asia Studies and co-director, Pacific Partners Initiative, Center for Strategic & International Studies, Washington DC, elaborated on the recent US diplomatic efforts at promoting greater regional economic integrity in South Asia and South East Asia.

Bower felt the ASEAN can be the fulcrum for a new economic architecture in Asia and can effectively balance the rising economic and political hegemony of China, which is threatening to escalate regional conflict in sea-trade connectivity between the Indian Ocean and Pacific region, which caters to two-third of the global trade. Chinese economic presence in countries like Myanmar has bypassed the issue of local development with profit plough back and employment of only Chinese workers in these business ventures, noted Mr Bower. This inks out the huge investment potential for countries like US and India in Myanmar.

Speaking on US keenness to include India in the TPP, which is the current US trade policy in Asia, Bower was equally eager for sprucing up US engagement with the ASEAN, as a common platform for promoting greater economic partnership with India.

Informing that the US investment in SE Asia was 10 times more than that in India and 4 times more than that in China, Bower said the US investors are however, have currently practically lined up for investment opportunities in India and the ASEAN. Bower called for the formation of focus groups for solving the ground level implementation issues of LEP in North East India.

The session was attended by Alok Sen, former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, Kyaw Swe Tint, consul general, Myanmar, Rachel Sunden, deputy director, American Center, Gaurav Bansal, political & economic affairs officer, US Consulate, Kolkata and Richard Craig, commercial officer, US Consulate among others.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-pacific-partnership/articleshow/21936220.cms

 

[Srinivas]

.......................................

 

[Lightningbolt]

Indian economy has already collapsed.

 

[walle]

If Gordon Chang were to say the comming collapse of India no one would pay attention to him, if he was Gordon Singh, perhaps.

US keen on India's inclusion in the Trans Pacific Partnership

KOLKATA: The US is keen on India's inclusion in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-pacific-partnership/articleshow/21936220.cms

Let India join TPP, so the american agricultural sector can completely destroy india's.

 

[Srinivas]

Let India join TPP, so the american agricultural sector can completely destroy india's.

It depends on which country USA is partnering, India is too big and we do have some plans before entering the partnership.

 

[walle]

It depends on which country USA is partnering, India is too big and we do have some plans before entering the partnership.

Who is top dog in TPP? Certainly isn't India, if India was to get concession how can you make sure the other countries don't get equal treatment.

 

[Mr cool]

Rupee fall helps exporters to up competitiveness in market: FIEO

Exporters body Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) on Tuesday said rupee depreciation has helped in increasing competitiveness of domestic exports as traders have registered over 20 per cent growth in order books.

FIEO President Rafeeque Ahmed asked exporters to use rupee depreciation to augment exports by cutting down their prices and out price their competitors.

"Rupee depreciation has imparted some competitiveness to exports which are visible in order book positions where we are seeing over 20 per cent growth across many sectors," he said in a statement.

He said that the country would easily cross the exports targets for the current fiscal and trade deficit will be much less as compared to 2012-13.

The government has fixed an export target of $325 billion for the current fiscal. In 2012-13, trade defciit touched an all time high of $191 billion.

The rupee on Tuesday made a smart recovery to close at 63.25 after hitting a fresh low of 64.13 against the US dollar, helped by massive intervention by RBI.

He also said that this is a temporary phase and rupee will strengthen in the coming months.

"Improvement in overall economic parameters in the US and modest growth in Europe in last quarter would help Indias exports which may clock by 20 per cent from October onwards," he said.

However, engineering exporters body EEPC INDIA Chairman Aman Chadha said that rupee depreciation in rapid succession will not have major impact on the sector's exports.

"Engineering exports are based on long term contracts and reworking such contracts takes time and the buyer also negotiates, so the net impact many a times is more uncertainty," Chadha said.

He said that when the main problem is lack of demand in global markets, such sharp depreciation will not have any major impact.

link businesstoday.intoday.in/story/rupee-fall-helps-exporters-to-up-competitiveness-in-market/1/197921.html
moneycontrol.com/news/economy/us-revival-rupee-moves-to-boost-exports-20-higher-fieo-_938599.html