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Heavy borrowings: Reserves set to rise to $21b for first time

The Sandman

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13th Nov 2015,

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves will increase to nearly $21 billion within the next two weeks.

Pakistan is expecting to receive $500 million from World Bank and $400 million from Asian Development Bank in next couple of weeks. “We are expecting that country’s reserves for the first time will reach $21 billion,” said an official of the Ministry of Finance while talking to The Nation. He further said that country would also receive $502 million from the IMF in mid December. The current reserves are enough to cover four months import. The country’s current foreign exchange reserves are $19.75 billion wherein State Bank of Pakistan’s held reserves (SBP) are $14.7 billion and $5.04 billion of commercial banks.

However, the eminent economists and opposition parties have criticized the government for taking massive loans from the international lenders to build its reserves. They warned that loans would be at a heavy cost as and when the loan became due. Critics have been accusing Finance Minister Ishaq Dar of taking very costly foreign loans with the objective of building foreign exchange reserves to meet the International Monetary Fund (IMF) target for Net International Reserves (NIR).

“The government had built its reserves largely on borrowing from the international lenders and issuing bonds in global market,” said an economist Qaiser Bengali. The government had failed to enhance its exports despite receiving GSP Plus status from the European Union, he added.

The main opposition party Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has also shown concerns over the government’s policies of relying on massive borrowing. “Pakistan’s net reserves are around $2 to $3 billion if we exclude the borrowing from the overall reserves,” said former Finance Minister Senator Saleem Mandviwalla, who is also chairman of Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue.

On a question, he informed that he would summon the officials of the Ministry of Finance in Senate’s committee meeting to take their viewpoint on taking loans from the international lenders. Reserves built up entirely on borrowings cannot provide the foundation for a sustainable growth, especially if borrowing is being done at exorbitantly high levels of interest cost, he said.

Pakistan’s reserves had fallen to $7.58 billion in February 2014, of which SBP reserves amounted to a meager $2.70 billion and those of commercial banks amounted to $4.88 billion. However, the government had enhanced its reserves through various measures, largely taking loans and issuing bonds. The current reserves are hovering around $20 billion that would cover 4-5 months import bill of the country.
Heavy borrowings: Reserves set to rise to $21b for first time
 
Pakistan government borrowing at 8% from market & investing in US treasuries at 2% as part of forex reserves.
 
These are mostly loans from international agencies and banks. Another creative accounting to fool Pakistanis !
 
Pakistan = New Greece

Except for the fact that Greece will get more bailout money regardless.

why don't Pakistan negotiate favorable loan condition from china, i m sure they provide it with lending rate less then market, seeing the special relation between two countries.

They did its call the CPEC.

These are mostly loans from international agencies and banks. Another creative accounting to fool Pakistanis !

Loans that were meant for development projects. Water facilities, education, infrastructure are instead being used to import expensive furnace oil to make expensive electricity.

Someone tag the American Propagandist.
 
If a begging competition is held today Pak will definitely be the champion .

Not even close, my Urdu media reading brain washed friend. Google for a list of countries with debt as a percentage of GDP to get a better view point about your country.

Loans that were meant for development projects. Water facilities, education, infrastructure are instead being used to import expensive furnace oil to make expensive electricity.

Not your American propagandist and I do hate the heavy borrowing. But your statement about using this borrowed money to import expensive furnace oil isn't true. First, oil is at historically low rates these days so importing it for any purpose isn't such a bad idea especially considering that we do have a massive energy shortfall. Secondly, a lot of this money is being used for development projects (aka PSDP) and some of it is being thrown away for political gimmicks like BISP, free p0rn machines (expensive high end laptops) and free carry dabbas. But we have to be fair.
 
Not even close, my Urdu media reading brain washed friend. Google for a list of countries with debt as a percentage of GDP to get a better view point about your country.



Not your American propagandist and I do hate the heavy borrowing. But your statement about using this borrowed money to import expensive furnace oil isn't true. First, oil is at historically low rates these days so importing it for any purpose isn't such a bad idea especially considering that we do have a massive energy shortfall. Secondly, a lot of this money is being used for development projects (aka PSDP) and some of it is being thrown away for political gimmicks like BISP, free p0rn machines (expensive high end laptops) and free carry dabbas. But we have to be fair.

Ignore Xperia, he is an Indian user.
 
We need to enhance our export and at least a growth rate of 20% per year in revenue.

Bhaijaan is 20% growth expectations achievable? Can you imagine the # of policy decisions need to be taken and BOLD initiatives required even to reach 10% by mistake?

Just asking, no offence.
 
While its true that we have taken debt , however we must also look at the positives

a) We have multiple large grand scale Energy Projects in pipe line , to make 10,000 MW energy when completed
b) We have CPEC industrial zone which will motivate trade industry (40 Billion)
c) The Surplus in Reserve is 21 Billion (Again a huge positive)
d) Oil prices are down so our economy will likely grow further due to reduce oil prices I hope we store as much as possible (We will save 5-10 Billion annually)
e) Russia is building gas line between Karachi and Lahore , again huge positive (5 Billion)
g) Gwadar is in Chinese hands and in 1-3 years max they will likely make it busy as Singapore hub (Jobs will certainly get created 2-3 Billion)
h) While not forgetting the power projects in KPK and Sindh's nuclear plants

So from policy perspective we might be heading in right direction


Nawaz Sharif's policies , I mean these do look quite calculated and positive movement
its too bad his local ground workers do not have the same business mind but his moves in international sector to bring investment are applaudable


(On paper , what happens in actuality is different matter but if his vision fruits properly that is projects are completed properly then he has done his job well)

The failure of power plant projects after completion has hurt his reputation

But if you look at his "Moves" in international arena , very impressive moves in just 2 years

If the pending projects execute with 80-85% efficiency , no over head or lateness , we are looking at a tremendous economic boost for Pakistan
 
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