What's new

Govt finalises plan to increase power generation capacity by three times

ghazi52

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Joined
Mar 21, 2007
Messages
103,045
Reaction score
106
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
Govt finalises plan to increase power generation capacity by three times
September 10, 2019

5d76c45955eaa.jpg


The IGCEP envisages addition of about 98,100MW to national grid by 2040 including 16,000MW through renewable sources — wind, solar, baggasse etc.
ISLAMABAD: The government plans to increase the country’s power generation capacity by almost 300 per cent in next 20 years to 111,000 megawatts and phase out almost all of the existing thermal power plants to meet rising energy demand at affordable costs.

The move is part of the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2018-40 finalised by the National Transmission and Despatch Company in consultation with all the federal and provincial agencies and private sector consultants to ensure low-cost development of future projects and to comply with regulator’s Grid Code obligations.

The IGCEP 2018-40 represents the first complete iteration of an integrated planning exercise for the power sector of the country and will be revised every year on the basis of ground realities including growth trajectory, consumption patterns and completion or delays in projects to ensure regulatory compliance.

The plan puts current total capacity at about 29,000MW even though total installed capacity stands at about 33,500MW including about 3,000MW of coal-based plants, 9,700MW of hydropower plants, 20,000MW of thermal plants besides 1,345MW of nuclear and 1,900MW of renewables. As such, 61pc contribution comes from all thermal sources, 29pc hydro, 6pc from renewables and 4pc nuclear. Power generation goes up to 153,000 Gigawatt Hour (GWh ) at present.

Thermal plants will be phased out in 20 years

The plan has been firmed up on basis of three different economic growth scenarios until 2040. At 4.5pc GDP growth rate, the government will have to increase its generation capacity to 65,100MW to generate 370,500GWh. In case of 5.5pc GDP growth rate, the capacity would need to be expanded to 80,500MW to generate 458,000GWh. In high growth rate of 7pc, the capacity will be increased to 111,000MW to make available about 630,500 GWh.

Under the plan, the government has firm plans for capacity addition of about 17,300MW by 2025 including 6,000MW in public sector and 11,300MW in the private sector. By the year 2030, another 8,600MW would be added to the system.

The IGCEP is targeting a total capacity addition of about 98,100MW by 2040. This would include about 29,000MW of hydropower plants followed by 20,000MW through local coal-based plants, mostly in Thar. The nuclear power generation capacity would go beyond 4,300MW as a series of large plants of 1,100MW each are completed. The plan envisages decreasing the capacity of Liquiefied Natural Gas-based plants while a total of about 9,000MW current oil-based plants would be phased out by 2040.

On the other hand, about 16,000MW capacity addition has been planned through renewable sources — wind, solar, baggasse etc — while imported coal-based generation capacity would increase to 5,000MW.

The plan is also based on existing policy limitations and system constraints. For example, 66pc energy for Regassified Liquid Natural (RLNG) projects is on ‘take or pay basis’. Although cheaper plants are available for dispatch but their generation has been curtailed to account for RLNG contractual obligations. There is a need to ponder, ascertain and establish how the fuel contracts will be negotiated in the renewal phase of these projects with respect to minimum take-or-pay fuel requirements, the plan advocates.

All strategic projects have been considered for the plan. In the long term, the policy will continue to focus on least cost generation options and on harnessing indigenous resources, particularly Thar coal and renewable in south and hydro potential in the north.

In this regard, a project is considered as committed provided the project is already under construction or has achieved financial close or has strategic importance i.e. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Project or Public Sector Committed Projects. It also takes into account the commercial operation dates for committed and candidate power projects conveyed by project executing agencies and further rationalised by the Prime Minister’s Task Force for Energy Reforms.

Wind and solar power would be developed in the blocks of 500MW and and 400MW respectively, from the year 2021-22 and onward. Due to high-annualised cost, projects like Chiniot, Kaigah, Tungas, Yalbo and Basho have not been included for this report. Likewise, 1,320 MW Oracle Thar-Based plant, though being a CPEC project, has not been considered as a committed one because of its changing characteristics and completion timelines.

From year 2019, the gap between nominal capacity and the demand is steadily widening, and the same starts surpassing the peak load of the system. In the year 2032, the cumulative nominal capacity is estimated at 62,979MW whereas the peak load is projected at 50,306MW, thus a wide disparity of around 13,000MW exists between the two parameters and the capacity is in surplus as compared to demand.

In 2040, the last projected year for the IGCEP, the total nominal capacity in the system stands at 98,091MW against a peak load projected as 80,425MW. Therefore, a significant surplus of around 17,600MW has been estimated between the projected demand and the installed capacity, as a spinning reserve.

With the current costs of renewable energy, as well as the increase in costs for imported fuels and currency devaluation, the least cost generation plan utilises large quantities of hydro capacity, Thar Coal-based generation and renewable energy which is in line with the general policy view to reduce dependence on imported fuels from the perspective of energy security, sustainability and affordability ultimately yielding significant reduction in foreign reserve requirements pertaining to imported fuels.

The plan did not take into account the impact of demand side management and net-metering because of non-existent or ineffective policy direction.

Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2019
 
. . .
something needs to be done about IPP's they have become a humongous liability, absolutely unacceptable. need to start destroying them now. problem is benazir is no more who made this feking decision.
 
.
something needs to be done about IPP's they have become a humongous liability, absolutely unacceptable. need to start destroying them now. problem is benazir is no more who made this feking decision.
BB inflicted that curse on the nation... now traitorous woman is dead but her husband and children are still biting the nation. BTW, NS did the same as well.
 
.
BB inflicted that curse on the nation... now traitorous woman is dead but her husband and children are still biting the nation. BTW, NS did the same as well.
curse of the 90's lives on, I vaguely remember the ads on tv when she implemented this wretched curse of ipp's. she was on a horse and slogan was that my village will have electricity. villages have electricity because now they have access to solar panels.
 
.
Great news. This sort of thing should be done as quickly as possible. As much of our energy should be from renewables as possible. We also need to electrify our modes of transportation.
 
.
Keep in mind the future of automobiles is in electric so if we have cheap abundant electricity it will significantly reduce our oil import bill.
 
.
Great news. This sort of thing should be done as quickly as possible. As much of our energy should be from renewables as possible. We also need to electrify our modes of transportation.
Renewable and nuclear. Phase out coal, oil and lng based plants. end dependency on fossil fuels. encourage production of solar panels, batteries and inverters in Pakistan, and subsidize it.
 
.
This is very good policy if implemented. Getting rid of thermal plants will help reduce import bill.
 
.
curse of the 90's lives on, I vaguely remember the ads on tv when she implemented this wretched curse of ipp's. she was on a horse and slogan was that my village will have electricity. villages have electricity because now they have access to solar panels.
The traitorous vixen was too clever for the both the nation and the deep state. She wanted to sabotage the construction of Kalabagh dam.
She brought in these IPPs at exorbitantly hight rates. She achieved many objectives with this deal. She got all of kickbacks and in addition to shelving all dam projects and making Pakistan a slave by giving sovereign guarantees on very unfair conditions to Pakistan
 
Last edited:
.
Renewable and nuclear. Phase out coal, oil and lng based plants. end dependency on fossil fuels. encourage production of solar panels, batteries and inverters in Pakistan, and subsidize it.

Coal is local from Thar. Just remember that electricity generated from coal is consistent all year around unlike hydro or solar.
 
.
The traitorous vixen was too clever to fool both the nation and the deep state. She wanted to sabotage the construction of Kalabagh dam.
She brought in these IPPs at exorbitantly hight rates. She achieved many objectives with this deal. She got all of kickbacks and in addition to shelving all dam projects and making Pakistan a slave by giving sovereign guarantees on very unfair conditions to Pakistan
the kanjar kakki bassi and kabari tubbar tried to do the same thing with LNG as well. the states leniency to traitors always bears fruit.
 
.
Coal is local from Thar. Just remember that electricity generated from coal is consistent all year around unlike hydro or solar.
And coal is a pollutant, a country that is so severely affected by climate change must not be so stupid.
 
.
And coal is a pollutant, a country that is so severely affected by climate change must not be so stupid.

To be fair - i think coal should be the absolutely last thing phased out.

I accept it's polluting, but it's cheap, abundant and locally available. If we need energy, we should utilise it, instead of imported fuels, or expensive green tech, UNTIL the green tech becomes on par with cost and at that stage we should replace it.

Nobody else hamstrung themselves with saving the environment when industrialising - we shouldn't either. We need to use it in the medium term. 20 years is a good target.
 
.

Country Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom