Getting Rafale jets will not affect Indian cooperation with Russia

[mkb95]

Coinciding with the visit of French President Francois Hollande to India, New Delhi and Paris have signed an agreement (again) for the purchase of French Rafale fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force. TV channels, including the official DD News, showed the live telecast of the agreements being signed. The signing ceremony was held on January 25 at the Hyderabad House, the official palace in New Delhi where the Indian Prime Minister meets with foreign dignitaries, after talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Hollande.

“The decision on the financial aspects of the purchase of the 36 fighter jets will be made soon,” Modi state in a statement to the media after the talks.

Indian authorities are, nevertheless, not slowing down their defence cooperation with Russia, particularly in the military aviation sector. India and Russia have agreed to continue their joint work on building a fifth generation fighter jet; a two-seater Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation (PAK FA). In fact, on Monday January 25, officials of both countries reached agreement to reduce the cost of the joint project by 40%: down to $4 billion for each side.

Nadezhda Uzunova, a researcher from the Centre for Euro-Atlantic and Defence Studies at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, said competition between Russia and France in the global arms market has been around for a long time.

“In fact, this competition between Russia and France in the arms market is nothing new. We should note that the situation in the region is rather difficult, and India is rapidly arming itself. Apparently, the Indians have simply decided to work with different suppliers. On the other hand, France is now experiencing economic problems, and the arms trade is a very important source of revenues, so the French are very actively offering their weapons everywhere and to everyone. I believe that it is quite possible that they were willing to make major concessions, especially after the incident with the Mistral ships. They want to show their customers that they are reliable suppliers,” Uzunova said on Radio Sputnik.

She however believes that, in spite of a signed contract with France, India will not curtail its cooperation with Russia.

“I believe that neither India, nor any other country for that matter, intends to curtail cooperation with Russia. It is simply that at this time, there seems to be a trend to buy from different manufacturers in different countries. That is, diversification. Cooperation will continue, but the relations will be more flexible,” said Uzunova.

First published in Russian by RIA Novosti.


source- http://in.rbth.com/economics/defenc...-affect-indian-cooperation-with-russia_562893

 

[PARIKRAMA]

IMHO we should see the following in coming days

• FGFA breakthrough confirmation via MOD right before Rafale 36 contract signature
• Rafale payment by March End estimation
• FGFA payment by April/May 2016
• Rafale plan unveiling for MII and naming of partner in private sector
• FGFA partner name HAL formally announced for MII
• Rafale deal MII approximate first tranche number by year end before Dec 2016
• HAL announcing FGFA approximate timeline before March 2017

In other words, we will keep juggling some payments one year for Rafale and one year for FGFA for next 10-12 years equaling pacing a amount to both the deals.

Only one difference is PAKFA STAGE 2 will be by 2021-22 and hence FGFA by 2025-27.
And during the same time Rafales will be inducted maximum.

Expect some more deals to be announced post FGFA payment confirmation

• S400 SAM
• Kashalot
• "Exploring" and 'showing interests" in perhaps 2 new kilos and few more ships for IN

Possibly, to keep Russia happy, a deal of 45 Mig29K may be also given or at least for playing to the gallery "explored" with possibly asking for some offset under MII (quoting DPP 2016) and deal may later fall through or offsets may be given a concession.

As i said earlier, delicate balancing will be done now.. Appeasing Russia but slowly moving some deals away from Russia too.

Times will be interesting.

Just to add, once FGFA signature for R&D and release of $4 Bn is done what should be the top priority for India,
IMHO the first priority should be SUPER SUKHOI program followed by S400.
The Super Program with a additional feature of critical spare being locally produced to increase availability rates to 75% should be given a far more important priority. Before we start FGFA production, we should try and upgrade maximum MKis to Super standards including a sizeable chunk like 80-100 directly in Russia and rest in India.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

• Kashalot

We need to play our cards well, Russia is offering 2 Overhauled and upgraded Akula 2 and 1 Akula built to India's need, taking many technologies from Yansen too.
As we likely will have upto 3 SSBNs in service and 2 Aircraft carriers in service by 2020, and our first SSN will not come before 2024, we need to get additional SSNs to protect our SSBNs and CBGs. And nothing can be better than 3 More Akula 2.